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Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
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Post: #661
RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(07-11-2019 12:23 PM)XLance Wrote:  John Ourand

@Ourand_SBJ
The revenue gap between the Big Ten and SEC is widening at "an alarming rate," @SmittySBJ reports in SBJ College. "The SEC trailed the Big Ten in 2018 revenue reports -- $759 million to $660 million."?https://www.sportsbusinessdaily.com/SB-Blogs/Newsletter-College/2019/07/09.aspx …?

https://twitter.com/Ourand_SBJ

Summer fodder. Everyone knew what the gap would be when the Big 10 signed their last FOX deal. And it will grow in 2022-3 when the next Big 10 contract comes up. The following year the SEC will renew it's T1 rights. If we stay with a traditional network the low estimate is 275 million for just the T1 rights annually and the highest estimate is 315 million for the same. The low number makes our payouts 58 million a year. At 300 million it would be 61 million make it 62 million at 315. If the Big 10 renews with a traditional network they will easily get a 5% bump. (Remember the SEC contract is 15 years old and the Big 10 contract will be 6 years old when renewed). That puts at the lowest estimates the SEC at 58 million plus escalators and the Big 10 at 57.5 million plus escalators so roughly a dead heat.

What could change those dramatically and college football as we know it is if the Big 10 rights or the SEC's T1 rights which would be the ones most sought by companies who are better financed than the networks step into the Sports rights business. Some people are saying that if that comes to pass that these entities will primarily be interested in T1 rights for major events with national draws and that they will want to break out their contracts from conferences and go straight to schools. Early numbers being tossed around for this are in the 80 to 90 million dollars a year for top 20 schools in terms of draw and maybe 40 to 60 million for the next 20 or so schools.

They could buy T2 rights, but simply aren't as interested in those or T3 rights which may be what winds up in the hands of the traditional networks.

In other words ESPN+ could wind up being their only offering once the ACC contract expires in 2037. But the PAC, Big 12, Big 10 and SEC's T1 rights will all be on the market by 2025 (Big 10 2022-3, SEC 2023-4, PAC & Big 12 2024-5). So the entities (Think FAANG) could go heavily after the T1 rights of roughly these schools:
SEC: Alabama, Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana State, Mississippi, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas A&M
Big 10: Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Texas, Oklahoma
PAC: USC, UCLA, Stanford, Washington, Oregon
IND: Notre Dame
And then fill in with another 15 or so schools.

What this fundamentally would do is end conferences as we know them now. They would remain for scheduling basketball, baseball, hockey, softball, etc., but college football would become essentially a field of schools with individual contracts in which the wealthiest companies would contract a conference of about 40 or so schools who would play all of their games against each other.

So X, that is why I call it summer time fodder. If we stay with traditional networks the SEC and Big 10 will be essentially in the same ballpark by 2024. Until then the Big 10 revenue gap will grow. But if non traditional players get involved it might change everything essentially give a 30% raise over the highest offers by traditional networks in exchange for the abandonment of traditional conferences in order to form a new upper tier. It is also believe that within 5 years these companies will be very capable of simply buying CBS sports, ESPN, FOX Sports, and NBC if they wish to acquire all of the rights.

So I just thought I'd toss that new wrinkle into the mix since you were reprinting Camel's troll from another board.
07-11-2019 01:13 PM
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Post: #662
RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
Your low and high are 20-25 million per game (14 games). That is what the CCGs are paying. That's nonsense. That sounds like numbers Clay Travis would throw out.

Maybe with 5 years of rights inflation you get there, but there is no way the weekly SEC game is worth anywhere near the CCGs.
They're worth a lot more than the $55 million ($4 million per game) the SEC is getting now, but not 6 times as much.
07-11-2019 02:19 PM
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(07-11-2019 02:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  Your low and high are 20-25 million per game (14 games). That is what the CCGs are paying. That's nonsense. That sounds like numbers Clay Travis would throw out.

Maybe with 5 years of rights inflation you get there, but there is no way the weekly SEC game is worth anywhere near the CCGs.
They're worth a lot more than the $55 million ($4 million per game) the SEC is getting now, but not 6 times as much.

Which set of numbers are you referring to Bullet? The numbers that the network will give which puts the SEC at 58 million, or the numbers that the FAANG companies would use to rearrange the product into the top 40 or so schools? The number from the network uses the roughly the same base value as what FOX paid for the Big 10's T1 and T2. The SEC's T1 is the industry's leader and not by just a little.

And Bullet it's 15 games plus the CCG and the new contract may include an additional 2 games plus the CCG. So it's closer to 4 times as much plus the CCG. Not nearly as outrageous as you may think.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2019 03:33 PM by JRsec.)
07-11-2019 03:05 PM
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RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(07-11-2019 03:05 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 02:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  Your low and high are 20-25 million per game (14 games). That is what the CCGs are paying. That's nonsense. That sounds like numbers Clay Travis would throw out.

Maybe with 5 years of rights inflation you get there, but there is no way the weekly SEC game is worth anywhere near the CCGs.
They're worth a lot more than the $55 million ($4 million per game) the SEC is getting now, but not 6 times as much.

Which set of numbers are you referring to Bullet? The numbers that the network will give which puts the SEC at 58 million, or the numbers that the FAANG companies would use to rearrange the product into the top 40 or so schools? The number from the network uses the roughly the same base value as what FOX paid for the Big 10's T1 and T2. The SEC's T1 is the industry's leader and not by just a little.

And Bullet it's 15 games plus the CCG and the new contract may include an additional 2 games plus the CCG. So it's closer to 4 times as much plus the CCG. Not nearly as outrageous as you may think.

If the SEC gets the 285-315 million for CBS tier I, then the SEC gets the $58 million/school that you mentioned. But its the 285-315 million for 14 games that is unrealistic.

And you can't include extra games unless you take away from the Tier II with ESPN which is tied up for another 15 years. So that would be just shuffling $$s from one pocket to another.
07-11-2019 07:16 PM
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Post: #665
RE: Jim Delany botched the 2010-2013 Big Ten Expansion
(07-11-2019 07:16 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 03:05 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(07-11-2019 02:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  Your low and high are 20-25 million per game (14 games). That is what the CCGs are paying. That's nonsense. That sounds like numbers Clay Travis would throw out.

Maybe with 5 years of rights inflation you get there, but there is no way the weekly SEC game is worth anywhere near the CCGs.
They're worth a lot more than the $55 million ($4 million per game) the SEC is getting now, but not 6 times as much.

Which set of numbers are you referring to Bullet? The numbers that the network will give which puts the SEC at 58 million, or the numbers that the FAANG companies would use to rearrange the product into the top 40 or so schools? The number from the network uses the roughly the same base value as what FOX paid for the Big 10's T1 and T2. The SEC's T1 is the industry's leader and not by just a little.

And Bullet it's 15 games plus the CCG and the new contract may include an additional 2 games plus the CCG. So it's closer to 4 times as much plus the CCG. Not nearly as outrageous as you may think.

If the SEC gets the 285-315 million for CBS tier I, then the SEC gets the $58 million/school that you mentioned. But its the 285-315 million for 14 games that is unrealistic.

And you can't include extra games unless you take away from the Tier II with ESPN which is tied up for another 15 years. So that would be just shuffling $$s from one pocket to another.

Bullet CBS gets 15 now plus the SEC CCG. As for upping the # of games to 17 I guess that depends on the wording of the contract and whether or not additions are anticipated. We are now starting with Week 0 games again and then there' Thanksgiving. So plenty of wiggle room.

You were hyperbolic with 8 times it will be a little less than 4 times as much for a 15 year old contract and I'm figuring the the CCG is 30 of it. If you don't believe me there are more than a few articles already on the subject, Google it.

We dominate the time slot, hold the high spot for viewers, had a grossly undervalued contract last time, and have the recent FOX / B1G calculations to gauge it by.

As far as shuffling money goes that depends on whether inventory is added or not, and how the original definition of T2 content was defined as ESPN inventory.

And BTW, T1 inventory is going to be much more highly valued moving forward. The value for the SEC's or Big 10's T2 is not nearly as valuable as the T1 inventory even though both do quite well with T2 rights. And as far as ESPN's existing contract if there are additions not only is their # of games preserved but augmented so there would be a renegotiation. But as with all things we'll know in a couple of years or three.
(This post was last modified: 07-11-2019 07:46 PM by JRsec.)
07-11-2019 07:40 PM
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