I think it pretty obvious that anything that involves 'encouraging investment' begins by increasing debt (shovel ready projects) or lowering revenue (tax cuts)... and the benefits from those actions come much later.

In the simplest example, if we give a tax cut to a company who then builds a factory and they engage in everyday tax applications, they won't pay income tax on that investment for (likely) a number of years.

Wealthy democrats get this because they often take advantage of it themselves... but they also know that a large number of their voters are paycheck voters.... so they have no concept of this.

(05-31-2019 03:02 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(05-31-2019 09:53 AM)VA49er Wrote:  

(05-31-2019 09:17 AM)Redwingtom Wrote:  

(05-31-2019 08:19 AM)VA49er Wrote:  What I can't believe is some people believe the stock buybacks only help the 1%. That's asinine thinking and is totally ignorant of the almost $30 TRILLION everyday Americans have invested in retirement accounts, etc.

Good thing the market will never go down, ever, AMIRITE?

Not sure what that has to do with anything. Of course the markets can go down, that's why one diversifies one's portfolio. Not sure what you are getting at....

The market may be good now and you may be making more return due to the buybacks, but that could change in a year and result in losses to offset the current gains. If you're like me, you're well over a decade from retirement. There's no guarantee any gains I'm making now will be there when it comes time to cash in.

Well yeah, just like always the market goes up and the market goes down. There are never any guarantees with the market. If your portfolio isn't diversified you might as well go to Vegas and play the slots. Diversification provides a mechanism to not lose your savings when the the market reverses. You know, bonds/stocks/cash, etc in the proper percentages. The impact of Stock buy backs, recessions, terrorist attacks, etc on savings can all be mitigated by properly diversifying your holdings. Not quite sure why you cite stock buy backs as anything special when they, along with other events, have influenced the stock market for over a century.

(05-31-2019 03:02 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The market may be good now and you may be making more return due to the buybacks, but that could change in a year and result in losses to offset the current gains. If you're like me, you're well over a decade from retirement. There's no guarantee any gains I'm making now will be there when it comes time to cash in.

This is where 'what people think they know' misleads them.

First of all, you'd be hard-pressed to find ANY 10 year period in the past century where the (dividends reinvested) rate of return on any significant US index (the DJIA, the S&P, the NASDAQ) was negative, much less lower than inflation or the rate of return on treasury bills or CDs.... Of course there is no guarantee... If we decide to become socialist or start nationalizing companies, people could lose everything... but those are conscious choices we would be making as a country to let the government do that to us.

Second, Let's be honest... there's no guarantee that social security will be there either. Why do we put so much greater faith in a program that has been cut and cut and cut and cut over our lifetimes than we do in one that has yet to fail us?

Finally, any investment adviser worth 2 cents would tell you that the shorter your investment window, the more conservative you need to be. If you're 10 years from retirement, you should have a lot of your money in fixed income, which would do very well in the event of a downturn in the stock market.... and much less in stocks.... so you may still 'make more money' even if the stock market is lower.

Though unless you plan on not only retiring in 10 years, but dying in 10.1, your horizon should be a bit longer than just 'retirement day'.

I don't mean this as a knock on you Tom... but it's a very commonly repeated fallacy.

(05-31-2019 03:27 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(05-31-2019 03:02 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  The market may be good now and you may be making more return due to the buybacks, but that could change in a year and result in losses to offset the current gains. If you're like me, you're well over a decade from retirement. There's no guarantee any gains I'm making now will be there when it comes time to cash in.

This is where 'what people think they know' misleads them.

First of all, you'd be hard-pressed to find ANY 10 year period in the past century where the (dividends reinvested) rate of return on any significant US index (the DJIA, the S&P, the NASDAQ) was negative, much less lower than inflation or the rate of return on treasury bills or CDs.... Of course there is no guarantee... If we decide to become socialist or start nationalizing companies, people could lose everything... but those are conscious choices we would be making as a country to let the government do that to us.

Second, Let's be honest... there's no guarantee that social security will be there either. Why do we put so much greater faith in a program that has been cut and cut and cut and cut over our lifetimes than we do in one that has yet to fail us?

Finally, any investment adviser worth 2 cents would tell you that the shorter your investment window, the more conservative you need to be. If you're 10 years from retirement, you should have a lot of your money in fixed income, which would do very well in the event of a downturn in the stock market.... and much less in stocks.... so you may still 'make more money' even if the stock market is lower.

Though unless you plan on not only retiring in 10 years, but dying in 10.1, your horizon should be a bit longer than just 'retirement day'.

I don't mean this as a knock on you Tom... but it's a very commonly repeated fallacy.

No worries...agree with pretty much everything you said.