Wanted to find which teams have the most upset loses in history. Used ELO ranking (Chess formula) and counted every P5 team loss to an opponent with an ELO score more than 100 points less when the game was played. A few interesting results:

* Texas has been upset the most times (147)
* Indiana has been upset the fewest time (44)
* Teams with most overall wins tend to have the most upset losses

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing

Of the teams in the top 15 in all time wins, WVU is lowest in the upset losses tied for 31st place. I guess that means as a whole over time they were the most disciplined or that all the years they were in the Southern Conference they weren't favored over 100 ELO points over many teams.

It makes sense the best all time teams have the most upset wins. You have to be good to be favored by over 100 ELO points so many times.

It puts into perspective how big JMU's win over VT in 2010, Purdue's win over Ohio State last year and Syracuse's win over Clemson 2 years ago to see them as the biggest upset losses in the history of the programs.

It would seem logical that the better teams would be upset more often than weaker teams, if for no other reason than that they are the favorites more often. You can't be upset if you are the underdog (as Indiana often is).

biggest upset of any game all time found using this methodology:
<7> Brigham Young 16 @ Texas-El Paso 23 Oct 26 1985 825.75pts

Top 5 biggest P5 team upsets of all time using this methodology:
<13> Virginia Tech 16 vs James Madison 21 Sep 11 2010 746.92pts
<5> Michigan 32 vs Appalachian State 34 Sep 1 2007 685.54pts
Minnesota 6 vs Iowa Pre-Flight 7 Oct 3 1942 663.31pts
Florida 20 vs Georgia Southern 26 Nov 23 2013 658.96pts
Texas 7 vs Southwestern TX 14 Oct 2 1943 653.71pts

full w/l/t record for every P5 team in games where team is +100 elo and games where team is -100 elo vs opponent

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing

(05-30-2019 07:24 AM)jhasting Wrote:  Wanted to find which teams have the most upset loses in history. Used ELO ranking (Chess formula) and counted every P5 team loss to an opponent with an ELO score more than 100 points less when the game was played. A few interesting results:

* Texas has been upset the most times (147)
* Indiana has been upset the fewest time (44)
* Teams with most overall wins tend to have the most upset losses

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing

Dang! I thought the Electric Light Orchestra had a new album out!

(05-30-2019 08:53 AM)jhasting Wrote:  biggest upset of any game all time found using this methodology:
<7> Brigham Young 16 @ Texas-El Paso 23 Oct 26 1985 825.75pts

Top 5 biggest P5 team upsets of all time using this methodology:
<13> Virginia Tech 16 vs James Madison 21 Sep 11 2010 746.92pts
<5> Michigan 32 vs Appalachian State 34 Sep 1 2007 685.54pts
Minnesota 6 vs Iowa Pre-Flight 7 Oct 3 1942 663.31pts
Florida 20 vs Georgia Southern 26 Nov 23 2013 658.96pts
Texas 7 vs Southwestern TX 14 Oct 2 1943 653.71pts

So the JMU @ VT game is the second biggest upset in college football history? Great. I guess I'll have to stop bringing up Chamenade and UMBC to my UVA friends.

(05-30-2019 03:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-30-2019 07:24 AM)jhasting Wrote:  Wanted to find which teams have the most upset loses in history. Used ELO ranking (Chess formula) and counted every P5 team loss to an opponent with an ELO score more than 100 points less when the game was played. A few interesting results:

* Texas has been upset the most times (147)
* Indiana has been upset the fewest time (44)
* Teams with most overall wins tend to have the most upset losses

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing

Dang! I thought the Electric Light Orchestra had a new album out!

It's a Living Thing.

(05-30-2019 06:20 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-30-2019 03:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-30-2019 07:24 AM)jhasting Wrote:  Wanted to find which teams have the most upset loses in history. Used ELO ranking (Chess formula) and counted every P5 team loss to an opponent with an ELO score more than 100 points less when the game was played. A few interesting results:

* Texas has been upset the most times (147)
* Indiana has been upset the fewest time (44)
* Teams with most overall wins tend to have the most upset losses

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing

Dang! I thought the Electric Light Orchestra had a new album out!

It's a Living Thing.

Yeah, if you aren't looking at Mr. Blue Sky while stuck on a Telephone Line talking to an Evil Woman who's two timing you with Horace Wimp because he has a Strange Magic!

(05-30-2019 07:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-30-2019 06:20 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-30-2019 03:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-30-2019 07:24 AM)jhasting Wrote:  Wanted to find which teams have the most upset loses in history. Used ELO ranking (Chess formula) and counted every P5 team loss to an opponent with an ELO score more than 100 points less when the game was played. A few interesting results:

* Texas has been upset the most times (147)
* Indiana has been upset the fewest time (44)
* Teams with most overall wins tend to have the most upset losses

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing

Dang! I thought the Electric Light Orchestra had a new album out!

It's a Living Thing.

Yeah, if you aren't looking at Mr. Blue Sky while stuck on a Telephone Line talking to an Evil Woman who's two timing you with Horace Wimp because he has a Strange Magic!

I remember a friend in college saying if he heard Telephone Line one more time, he would shoot himself. I liked the song. His name was Tom, but not one of the ones on the board.

(05-30-2019 11:16 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-30-2019 07:21 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-30-2019 06:20 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  

(05-30-2019 03:55 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(05-30-2019 07:24 AM)jhasting Wrote:  Wanted to find which teams have the most upset loses in history. Used ELO ranking (Chess formula) and counted every P5 team loss to an opponent with an ELO score more than 100 points less when the game was played. A few interesting results:

* Texas has been upset the most times (147)
* Indiana has been upset the fewest time (44)
* Teams with most overall wins tend to have the most upset losses

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...sp=sharing

Dang! I thought the Electric Light Orchestra had a new album out!

It's a Living Thing.

Yeah, if you aren't looking at Mr. Blue Sky while stuck on a Telephone Line talking to an Evil Woman who's two timing you with Horace Wimp because he has a Strange Magic!

I remember a friend in college saying if he heard Telephone Line one more time, he would shoot himself. I liked the song. His name was Tom, but not one of the ones on the board.

Yeah that's one thing my wife and I agreed on musically. We both loved ELO. My tastes were a bit more eclectic and my wife loved R&B and Earth Wind and Fire which were alright. But I still loved my 60's Folk, the Stones, Credence, and later Fleetwood Mac to go with ELO.

The traditional powerhouses are naturally going to have more upsets because they go into far more games as the favorite.