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What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Exclamation What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
A Clemson fan who goes by MSTiger02 [IIRC] on this site wrote a guest article for ACCFootballRx in which he contends that the ACC's original plan was to add Miami, BC and Syracuse (not VT). He goes on to assert that if that had happened, VT would most likely be in the SEC today (instead of Missouri).

What if everything had gone according to plan?

Sometimes it works out best when things DON'T go according to plan (e.g. Louisville replacing Maryland also).

Thoughts?
05-21-2019 06:55 AM
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
Interesting idea, but I definitely don't think this would have resulted in Penn State being on the table for the ACC, nor would Notre Dame somehow be compelled to join the ACC in full. However, I agree that it would likely result in the SEC selecting VT to pair with A&M. Of the remaining options, Pitt would have topped the list for realistic adds for the ACC. So that leaves who #14 is.

If the market mantra were the primary factor for expansion, then VT might not have been chosen for the ACC's #14 even if they were available, but then neither would WVU. West Virginia isn't a huge market, and much of it falls into the greater Pittsburgh market. Plus WVU has its relatively poor academics going against it.

I actually think Rutgers might have been #14. I wonder if they would have jumped at the invite or held out for the long-rumored invite to the Big Ten. I'm thinking that if the ACC invite comes, Rutgers tells the Big Ten, and the invite of Maryland and Rutgers to the Big Ten happens a bit earlier than it actually did.

With Maryland leaving and Rutgers out of the running, adding Pitt would bring the ACC back to 12 but wouldn't necessarily staunch the desire to expand. However, the top remaining choices are two schools with less-than-stellar academics (WVU and Louisville) and UConn. When faced with such lackluster choices (from the ACC perspective anyway), I don't know if they would have attempted further expansion at the time.

The Big 12, however, is less picky, and I think here they grab WVU and Louisville along with TCU to return to 12.

ACC (FB teams listed in the same order as their protected crossover)
Atlantic: Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Coastal: Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, North Carolina, Virginia, Boston College, Duke
Non-FB: Notre Dame

Big 12 (no protected crossovers)
North: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Missouri, West Virginia
South: Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech

SEC (teams listed in the same order as their protected crossover)
Eastern: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
Western: LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Alabama, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Note that Notre Dame still joins the ACC as a non-FB member, probably striking a similar FB scheduling agreement to that in our timeline. With the addition of Pitt, BC and Syracuse swap divisions so Pitt and Syracuse can play annually. The Big Ten and Pac-12 are the same as in our timeline.

The Big 12 and SEC make out better here than they did in reality, while the ACC makes out worse.
(This post was last modified: 05-22-2019 06:31 AM by Nerdlinger.)
05-21-2019 08:24 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(05-21-2019 06:55 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Sometimes it works out best when things DON'T go according to plan (e.g. Louisville replacing Maryland also).

Thoughts?

Louisville replacing Maryland was a huge downgrade for the ACC. Massive. Every conference in the country would rather have Maryland than Louisville.
05-21-2019 08:34 AM
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(05-21-2019 08:24 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Interesting idea, but I definitely don't think this would have resulted in Penn State being on the table for the ACC, nor would Notre Dame somehow be compelled to join the ACC in full. However, I agree that it would likely result in the SEC selecting VT to pair with A&M. Of the remaining options, Pitt would have topped the list for realistic adds for the ACC. So that leaves who #14 is.

If the market mantra were the primary factor for expansion, then VT might not have been chosen for #14 even if they were available, but then neither would WVU. West Virginia isn't a huge market, and much of it falls into the greater Pittsburgh market. Plus WVU has its relatively poor academics going against it.

I actually think Rutgers might have been #14. I wonder if they would have jumped at the invite or held out for the long-rumored invite to the Big Ten. I'm thinking that if the ACC invite comes, Rutgers tells the Big Ten, and the invite of Maryland and Rutgers to the Big Ten happens a bit earlier than it actually did.

With Maryland leaving and Rutgers out of the running, adding Pitt would bring the ACC back to 12 but wouldn't necessarily staunch the desire to expand. However, the top remaining choices are two schools with less-than-stellar academics (WVU and Louisville) and UConn. When faced with such lackluster choices (from the ACC perspective anyway), I don't know if they would have attempted further expansion at the time.

The Big 12, however, is less picky, and I think here they grab WVU and Louisville along with TCU to return to 12.

ACC (FB teams listed in the same order as their protected crossover)
Atlantic: Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Coastal: Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, North Carolina, Virginia, Boston College, Duke
Non-FB: Notre Dame

Big 12
North: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Missouri, West Virginia
South: Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech

SEC
Eastern: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
Western: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Note that Notre Dame still joins the ACC as a non-FB member, probably striking a similar FB scheduling arrangement as in our timeline. With the addition of Pitt, BC and Syracuse swap divisions so Pitt and Syracuse can play annually. The Big Ten and Pac-12 are the same as in our timeline.

The Big 12 and SEC make out better here than they did in reality, while the ACC makes out worse.

I agree with this completely.

Alternatively, the ACC could have gone to 14 with any two of Cincinnati, Louisville, West Virginia, and UConn. Even without Virginia Tech, the ACC was still preferable to even a fully intact Big 12. (At least that's how UC would rank them, although I wonder if WVU and UL would see it the same way?)

Does FSU pull a power play and demand West Virginia? In real life Tobacco Road eventually caved on academics and added Louisville, and WVU is no worse academically than Louisville.

But my guess is that the ACC calls it quits and stick to 12. That way each school plays Notre Dame more often.
05-21-2019 08:45 AM
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zoocrew Offline
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
Or if the B1G had gone to 18 and SEC followed by taking from the Big 12 or the ACC, not impossible in the future if the ACC Network doesn’t work out and maybe they could challenge the GOR somehow.

B1G adds UVA, UNC, DUKE, GT
SEC adds KU, OU, Clemson, FSU

You could get left with

ACC

Boston College
UConn
Syracuse
Temple
Pitt
West Virginia

Virginia Tech
Cincinnati
Louisville
NC State
Wake Forest
Miami

Big 12

Texas (or maybe goes Indy?)
Oklahoma State
TCU
Baylor
Texas Tech
Kansas State
Iowa State
BYU
Colorado State

UCF/USF? -
Memphis?
Air Force?

You’d have a P2/5
05-21-2019 08:53 AM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(05-21-2019 06:55 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  A Clemson fan who goes by MSTiger02 [IIRC] on this site wrote a guest article for ACCFootballRx in which he contends that the ACC's original plan was to add Miami, BC and Syracuse (not VT). He goes on to assert that if that had happened, VT would most likely be in the SEC today (instead of Missouri).

What if everything had gone according to plan?

Sometimes it works out best when things DON'T go according to plan (e.g. Louisville replacing Maryland also).

Thoughts?

If Virginia Tech had been available then the SEC would probably be at 16, not 14. With A&M coming on board and with Virginia Tech coming on board, I could easily have seen the Missouri/Kansas pairing used as a lure to make Oklahoma get off the fence. Oklahoma, Missouri, Virginia Tech, & A&M would have made the then cable model of the SEC even more lucrative.

The next "what if" is what might realignment have looked like for everyone had cable models been going out in 2011 and content was the sought after product then?

Would the ACC have picked up Pitt? Would the Big 10 have taken Rutgers & Maryland? Would the SEC have added Missouri? Would Colorado and Utah have made it into the PAC?

If technology had made streaming more of a factor 6 years earlier what would realignment have looked like?
(This post was last modified: 05-21-2019 09:01 AM by JRsec.)
05-21-2019 09:00 AM
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(05-21-2019 08:24 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Interesting idea, but I definitely don't think this would have resulted in Penn State being on the table for the ACC, nor would Notre Dame somehow be compelled to join the ACC in full. However, I agree that it would likely result in the SEC selecting VT to pair with A&M. Of the remaining options, Pitt would have topped the list for realistic adds for the ACC. So that leaves who #14 is.

If the market mantra were the primary factor for expansion, then VT might not have been chosen for #14 even if they were available, but then neither would WVU. West Virginia isn't a huge market, and much of it falls into the greater Pittsburgh market. Plus WVU has its relatively poor academics going against it.

I actually think Rutgers might have been #14. I wonder if they would have jumped at the invite or held out for the long-rumored invite to the Big Ten. I'm thinking that if the ACC invite comes, Rutgers tells the Big Ten, and the invite of Maryland and Rutgers to the Big Ten happens a bit earlier than it actually did.

With Maryland leaving and Rutgers out of the running, adding Pitt would bring the ACC back to 12 but wouldn't necessarily staunch the desire to expand. However, the top remaining choices are two schools with less-than-stellar academics (WVU and Louisville) and UConn. When faced with such lackluster choices (from the ACC perspective anyway), I don't know if they would have attempted further expansion at the time.

The Big 12, however, is less picky, and I think here they grab WVU and Louisville along with TCU to return to 12.

ACC (FB teams listed in the same order as their protected crossover)
Atlantic: Clemson, Florida State, NC State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Coastal: Georgia Tech, Miami-FL, North Carolina, Virginia, Boston College, Duke
Non-FB: Notre Dame

Big 12
North: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Louisville, Missouri, West Virginia
South: Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech

SEC
Eastern: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech
Western: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Texas A&M

Note that Notre Dame still joins the ACC as a non-FB member, probably striking a similar FB scheduling arrangement as in our timeline. With the addition of Pitt, BC and Syracuse swap divisions so Pitt and Syracuse can play annually. The Big Ten and Pac-12 are the same as in our timeline.

The Big 12 and SEC make out better here than they did in reality, while the ACC makes out worse.

INTERESTING TAKE!
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05-21-2019 10:06 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(05-21-2019 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-21-2019 06:55 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Sometimes it works out best when things DON'T go according to plan (e.g. Louisville replacing Maryland also).

Thoughts?

Louisville replacing Maryland was a huge downgrade for the ACC. Massive. Every conference in the country would rather have Maryland than Louisville.

Wow.

[Image: 1PM2rEF.gif]
05-21-2019 10:08 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(05-21-2019 09:00 AM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-21-2019 06:55 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  A Clemson fan who goes by MSTiger02 [IIRC] on this site wrote a guest article for ACCFootballRx in which he contends that the ACC's original plan was to add Miami, BC and Syracuse (not VT). He goes on to assert that if that had happened, VT would most likely be in the SEC today (instead of Missouri).

What if everything had gone according to plan?

Sometimes it works out best when things DON'T go according to plan (e.g. Louisville replacing Maryland also).

Thoughts?

If Virginia Tech had been available then the SEC would probably be at 16, not 14. With A&M coming on board and with Virginia Tech coming on board, I could easily have seen the Missouri/Kansas pairing used as a lure to make Oklahoma get off the fence. Oklahoma, Missouri, Virginia Tech, & A&M would have made the then cable model of the SEC even more lucrative.

The next "what if" is what might realignment have looked like for everyone had cable models been going out in 2011 and content was the sought after product then?

Would the ACC have picked up Pitt? Would the Big 10 have taken Rutgers & Maryland? Would the SEC have added Missouri? Would Colorado and Utah have made it into the PAC?

If technology had made streaming more of a factor 6 years earlier what would realignment have looked like?

Epic Mind Blown
05-21-2019 10:08 AM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
Virginia Tech won 4 of the first 7 ACC football titles after joining the ACC, and won at least 10 games in each of those 7 seasons.

So if the ACC had expanded with Miami/Cuse/BC and without VT, then VT would have been crushing the Big East during that time, and VT would have been very high on the list of any conference looking for new members.

There's another "what if" scenario:

Part of the story of that ACC expansion is that, after the ACC presidents' first vote to invite Miami/Cuse/BC failed, there was a vote to invite Miami only that failed by one vote, followed by the vote to invite Miami and VT that passed with UVa's yes vote.

What if the Miami-only vote had passed? The ACC would have had an even 10 members. Would they have ever gone back for more Big East football teams?
(This post was last modified: 05-21-2019 10:24 AM by Wedge.)
05-21-2019 10:24 AM
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(05-21-2019 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-21-2019 06:55 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Sometimes it works out best when things DON'T go according to plan (e.g. Louisville replacing Maryland also).

Thoughts?

Louisville replacing Maryland was a huge downgrade for the ACC. Massive. Every conference in the country would rather have Maryland than Louisville.

Got that good Bourbon going early!? Wow! Just Wow! Don't know what to say to remarks like that.
05-21-2019 10:31 AM
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(05-21-2019 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-21-2019 06:55 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Sometimes it works out best when things DON'T go according to plan (e.g. Louisville replacing Maryland also).

Thoughts?

Louisville replacing Maryland was a huge downgrade for the ACC. Massive. Every conference in the country would rather have Maryland than Louisville.

If you polled the 14 ACC Presidents, Maryland would win that vote 14-0 IMO. Presidents care more about location and academics than athletics.
05-21-2019 10:36 AM
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
From the Big East perspective, losing Miami/BC/Syracuse would have left the league with Rutgers, West Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and Temple. They would have probably continued with the Cincinnati, USF and Louisville additions anyways to get back eight (assuming UConn was added, and Temple was downgraded). Basketball would have definitely taken a more substantial hit (since Syracuse was/is a much more national basketball brand than VT was).

I assume DePaul and Marquette would have still be added as non-football members, but would not be surprised if the Catholic schools pursued a breakaway at this point if Syracuse left.
05-21-2019 10:41 AM
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(05-21-2019 09:00 AM)JRsec Wrote:  The next "what if" is what might realignment have looked like for everyone had cable models been going out in 2011 and content was the sought after product then?

The "cable" financial model for college sports still hasn't gone out, and will probably still be the TV mindset for a few more years. 2011 is probably 20 years ahead of streaming being the prevalent financial model. When all but one weekly SEC football game is on SEC Network and the majority of fans are subscribing to SEC Network "over the top" instead of through cable or satellite, that's when streaming is the prevalent model.

But ok, let's say that fans with no cable/satellite package, paying to stream college sports, was the dominant financial model 9 or 10 years ago...

(05-21-2019 09:00 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Would the ACC have picked up Pitt? Would the Big 10 have taken Rutgers & Maryland? Would the SEC have added Missouri? Would Colorado and Utah have made it into the PAC?

In this scenario, the conference commissioners and presidents would have lots of streaming data to study and would know which of these schools drives subscriptions or pay-by-game payments for football and/or hoops.

Syracuse basketball would drive subscriptions, so they'd be attractive. Maybe attractive enough to get a Big Ten invitation. Never mind Maryland or Rutgers -- the first question is: Syracuse or Nebraska? I suspect Nebraska would still be ahead of Cuse because of Nebraska's diehard football fans and because there are no pro sports teams in Nebraska, but it might be close given that Syracuse basketball is a big draw and they are drawing on a much larger population base. For streaming, what counts are the total number of subscribers, not just the percentage of diehards in a given area.

The Pac would still have invited CU and UU if they expanded, because there are no good alternatives in the west. The only reason they would not have is if streaming data showed that they would make a lot more money per-school by staying at 10 members, which is possible.

We still haven't mentioned the elephant in the room with streaming: If it's the dominant financial model, and with all of the very specific data about viewership that is available with streaming, there would be huge tensions within each conference when everyone sees that Ohio State streaming rights are 1,000 times more valuable than Minnesota's, and not just 5 times more valuable; same with Alabama/Vanderbilt, USC/Oregon State, Texas/K-State, etc., etc. Sharing media revenue equally within a conference becomes a much harder sell after everyone has seen that data.
(This post was last modified: 05-21-2019 11:22 AM by Wedge.)
05-21-2019 11:12 AM
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
I think the best way to compare is if Maryland and Louisville are both 1-10 in football and both 15-17 in basketball which school is more appealing.
05-21-2019 11:12 AM
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(05-21-2019 10:36 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(05-21-2019 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-21-2019 06:55 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Sometimes it works out best when things DON'T go according to plan (e.g. Louisville replacing Maryland also).

Thoughts?

Louisville replacing Maryland was a huge downgrade for the ACC. Massive. Every conference in the country would rather have Maryland than Louisville.

If you polled the 14 ACC Presidents, Maryland would win that vote 14-0 IMO. Presidents care more about location and academics than athletics.

I wouldn't be so sure of that.

Throughout their history Maryland was an obstructionist element that cost the ACC multiple chances to better itself as a conference in the decades leading up to the last realignment. There was some bad blood there. enough so that there were some who weren't all that upset to see Maryland go.
05-21-2019 11:15 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(05-21-2019 11:15 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(05-21-2019 10:36 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(05-21-2019 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-21-2019 06:55 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Sometimes it works out best when things DON'T go according to plan (e.g. Louisville replacing Maryland also).

Thoughts?

Louisville replacing Maryland was a huge downgrade for the ACC. Massive. Every conference in the country would rather have Maryland than Louisville.

If you polled the 14 ACC Presidents, Maryland would win that vote 14-0 IMO. Presidents care more about location and academics than athletics.

I wouldn't be so sure of that.

Throughout their history Maryland was an obstructionist element that cost the ACC multiple chances to better itself as a conference in the decades leading up to the last realignment. There was some bad blood there. enough so that there were some who weren't all that upset to see Maryland go.

^^^ THIS ^^^. Specifically, I wonder if Clemson and FSU would've preferred Louisville over Maryland. OTOH, I think Maryland wins the majority because of (1) tradition in the ACC, and (2) academics. Just not sure Maryland is "better".
05-21-2019 11:27 AM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(05-21-2019 11:27 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(05-21-2019 11:15 AM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(05-21-2019 10:36 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  
(05-21-2019 08:34 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-21-2019 06:55 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Sometimes it works out best when things DON'T go according to plan (e.g. Louisville replacing Maryland also).

Thoughts?

Louisville replacing Maryland was a huge downgrade for the ACC. Massive. Every conference in the country would rather have Maryland than Louisville.

If you polled the 14 ACC Presidents, Maryland would win that vote 14-0 IMO. Presidents care more about location and academics than athletics.

I wouldn't be so sure of that.

Throughout their history Maryland was an obstructionist element that cost the ACC multiple chances to better itself as a conference in the decades leading up to the last realignment. There was some bad blood there. enough so that there were some who weren't all that upset to see Maryland go.

^^^ THIS ^^^. Specifically, I wonder if Clemson and FSU would've preferred Louisville over Maryland. OTOH, I think Maryland wins the majority because of (1) tradition in the ACC, and (2) academics. Just not sure Maryland is "better".

Yeah, even if Maryland made them grind their teeth they'd go with Maryland, because market size is a factor. The conference as a whole only makes more money off of a new member if the TV rights become more valuable.

Nielsen market ranking and number of TV homes in the market:

# 6 Washington, DC -- 2,482,480 TV homes
#26 Baltimore -- 1,084,180 TV homes
#48 Louisville -- 647,190 TV homes

The percentage of people watching Louisville would have to be about six times as high as the percentage of people watching Maryland in order for the total number of viewers to be even. Add in the number of alumni and fans of other ACC schools who are living in DC/Maryland versus living in Louisville, and it's no contest. Of course, that's also why the Big Ten targeted Maryland.
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
Great topic for discussion. Thanks for thinking of it.

It was incredibly fortuitous for the ACC that Virginia held up the expansion process to get Virginia Tech in the door. Following the 2003 expansion, the football programs at both Florida State and Miami took big backwards steps. Virginia Tech really stepped up to fill the gap during this period. Syracuse, meanwhile, made a huge coaching hire blunder with Greg Robinson, sending the SU football program to the worst four year period in its history. If Virginia Tech had remained in the Big East, the combination of Virginia Tech, West Virginia and Louisville, with Cincinnati and Rutgers along for support, would have made the Big East a much higher profile conference than the ACC during that period.

I agree that this may have led to Virginia Tech ultimately being targeted by the SEC. I have stated on a number of occasions that VT was the school that the SEC wanted to join with Texas A&M. The SEC got an earlier jump than the ACC on expansion efforts in 2011 and might have locked up VT before the ACC could act.

This, of course, leads to the question, who the ACC would have brought in with Pittsburgh. West Virginia, Louisville, Rutgers and UConn would all have been in play. Since Missouri would have remained in the Big 12, it would not have needed WVU, which was an awkward geographic fit.

Alternatively, the Big 12 may have tried to bring in West Virginia, Louisville and Pittsburgh as a group to get back to 12. There were rumors in 2011 of the Big 12's interest in such a plan. With a few years of weak performances in football by the ACC because VT never joined, the Big 12 may have seemed a more attractive option for these schools at the time.
(This post was last modified: 05-21-2019 11:50 AM by orangefan.)
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
Maryland had been the biggest pill in the ACC, but it was more of a peer to other ACC schools and one that could avoid trouble that UL just can’t be as a program.

It was a long time coming, what the ACC did when Maryland tried to slip out. But, the ACC has itself and its governance structure to blame when it comes to what “could have been.” The same obstructionist ways UMD employed to resist change (which, wasn’t just them alone all of the time) are no different than Virginia state politics inserting themselves on behalf of UVA and VT to push a different agenda through.

It’s not UMD’s fault Penn State isn’t in the conference. It’s always been a conference with schools not on the same page with others. Still isn’t, and may never be. And, I suspect that if UConn had not sued the ACC, you would see those tensions boil to the surface, because I doubt you can keep them out of it had they “played nice” once seeing their old mates peace out. They get in at probably Pitt’s expense at the earliest, but Louisville’s spot for sure if not. And it really comes back to FSU, GT, and Clemson to make some hard decisions. FSU maybe more so.
(This post was last modified: 05-21-2019 12:16 PM by The Cutter of Bish.)
05-21-2019 12:07 PM
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