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What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
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XLance Offline
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Post: #201
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
Would the B1G really invite Oklahoma?
My bet is that if the B1G expands at all it will snatch Missouri from the SEC, which will lead to all sorts of possibilities.
06-04-2019 07:04 AM
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CardinalJim Offline
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Post: #202
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(06-04-2019 07:04 AM)XLance Wrote:  Would the B1G really invite Oklahoma?
My bet is that if the B1G expands at all it will snatch Missouri from the SEC, which will lead to all sorts of possibilities.

I look at Missouri leaving The SEC for The Big 10 the same way I look at Louisville leaving The ACC for The Big 12; ain’t happening.

Missouri begged for a Big Ten invite that never came because The Big Ten thought they had nowhere to go can’t see them listening to The Big Ten now.

Same thing happened to Louisville with The Big 12. Big 12 slow played Louisville because they didn’t think Louisville had any other options. Once the invite came from The ACC the door to The Big 12 was closed.
(This post was last modified: 06-04-2019 07:33 AM by CardinalJim.)
06-04-2019 07:14 AM
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adcorbett Offline
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Post: #203
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(06-01-2019 03:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Texas also gets a tactical win against Oklahoma--who gets cut out of Texas recruiting. Texas could even end the RRR and instead play Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl during the state fair if they wanted to.

I don't think they would do that. IIRC , the RRR and it's set up is a primary driver of donations for both schools, because of how tickets are distributed for that game, based on donation levels. It is also why they won't move it on campus.
06-04-2019 10:50 AM
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DawgNBama Offline
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Post: #204
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
The RRR is Texas and Oklahoma what the WLOCP is to Georgia & Florida and the Iron Bowl is to Auburn & Alabama.
06-04-2019 11:42 AM
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zoocrew Offline
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Post: #205
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(05-30-2019 04:52 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(05-30-2019 04:17 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-29-2019 08:36 PM)Statefan Wrote:  
(05-29-2019 07:00 PM)adcorbett Wrote:  
(05-29-2019 06:44 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  What list of top targets? You have one handy to prove they actually had a list and passed on those schools?

Are you being dense on purpose? That is literally what you were just arguing about, the existence of a list of preferred schools.

You’d also have to be pretty ignorant of the situation and think the big ten looked at the entire college landscape, and Maryland, a school so “attractive” they were in backbreaking debt, was their number one choice. That much is obvious. And I say that as a Maryland grad. And especially with Texas and Norte dame sitting there So obviously they had a list, and had to wade thru it. Literally there can be no dispute of this.

The B10's wish list after Nebraska was probably close to this after adding Nebraska and splitting from ESPN:

1. ND - hands down (not close to AAU, but not that type of U)
2. Texas - 28 million people in the market
3. TAMU - Texas light
4. UNC-Ch (Delany knows better but swing for the moon) UNC's tv market footprint contains about 13 million people in NC, and the spillover into Va, and SC
5. UVa (rinse and repeat) UVa's tv market footprint contains about 11 million people with spillover in NOVA, DELMARVA, West Va, and TRI Cities of TN

After this it gets tougher to choose.

6. VT boarderline AAU school - higher research than Nebraska same market as UVa
7. MD good tv market although a financial basket case
8. GT - in the deep south
9. Syracuse - good tv market but like Nebraska, recently tossed out of AAU and way down the research list
10. Duke - does not carry all the NC market during football season
11. Vandy - The only possible inroad into the SEC.
12. Kansas - Market bleeds over into Missouri, but is on the AAU choping block (Remember Mary Sue at Michigan runs the AAU at the time and knows who is getting the boot and who is going under review)
13. Syracuse - Mary Sue just finished forcing out Cuse, but there are lots of folks in NY
14. NC State - mirror image of VT, UNC's same market footprint, as with VT much higher research than Nebraska
15. Mizzou - brings less than meets the eye
16. Colorado - very far away
17. Rutgers - brings only eyeballs and is a financial basket case
18. Oklahoma - poor academic reputation
19. Pitt - market duplication
20. Iowa State - market duplication

I feel like I am missing someone.

Outside of ND, a B10 school will be an R-1 with a dollar level of research that is in the 90-100 in the nation.

The Big 10 adds nothing to Texas, ND, UNC, or UVa. In addition to Duke, these folks can print their own money when they need it.

Getting VT and/or NC State requires the tacit approval of UVa or UNC. You just kicked Syracuse out of the AAU and they are not a top 100 Research University.
Pitt and Iowa State represent market duplication. Kansas and Rutgers football is terrible. Oklahoma presents some real academic issues for UM, NW, and several others. Basically only MD, Mizzou, Rutgers, and Kansas are in positions where they make money for the Big 10 model, and have vocalized a desire to leave or feel they need to leave.

That's how you end up with MD and Rutgers and the SEC takes Mizzou since at the time eyeballs where more important to the B10 than on the football field ability.

Frank the Tank had a nice blog piece assessing the Big 10's targets back in the 2011-2 era. The key back then was cable subscriptions and therefore market footprint expansion.

The PAC and SEC wanted into Texas, and those East of the Mississippi all coveted Virginia and North Carolina. Notre Dame has national draw. Oklahoma and Texas weren't so much on the radar of the Big 10 back then as they are now. But that is in part because of the ACC GOR that is now in place.

I doubt that the Big 10's wish list has changed much but the bullseye on Oklahoma and Texas is stronger now due to the ACC's GOR and a payout model driven more by content than footprint (although Texas has both). The Big 10 realizes that they need content additions more this time around. Virginia and North Carolina are not football content additions. Only Texas and Oklahoma offer content, national draw, a market of 32 million combined, and can pay their way in no question.

That's why the coming realignment war will be over that duo and not much more.

They are the only pair that can help the PAC get back on their feet. They are the only pair that hands down is worth the effort for the Big 10 and SEC, and Texas is a hope for the ACC to make up ground and get a large market for their ACCN.

This is why I believe that FOX and ESPN will be competing in driving up the offers to make these moves happen and why little brother tag-alongs may be not only a deal maker, but a necessity in acquiring either.

State legislatures will be involved. So get the salt and Orville Redenbacher's from about 2021 until 2023 there will be fireworks, dirty tricks, leverage, fear, and carnage in the realignment world again. And the early lack of interest of FOX in the rights of the little 7 of the Big 12 is just another indicator of which schools are high priority.

But back in 2012 the Big 10 clearly went for markets in uncontested states. Rutgers and Maryland, like Missouri for the SEC all delivered big population states without having little brothers to cut into their draw and the Big 10 made those plays simply for markets. Rutgers was low hanging fruit in that nobody else was calling at the time and Maryland was a well worked target of opportunity.

JR, this wouldn't play well over on Soil Stealers, but I think the B1G would be happier with Missouri than Oklahoma.
The metro areas of St. Louis and Kansas City play into the B1G persona and Oklahoma does not.
Texas of course is everybody's dream (not as a partner, but as a revenue source.
I'm still looking for Missouri, for a number of factors, but mostly for enrollment issues, to leave the SEC and join the B1G with Kansas.
The SEC will lose out to the good guys on Texas (and TCU), but will pick up the threesome of Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.

As long as we get the SOL Big 12

East

UConn
Temple
Cincy
West Virginia
UCF
USF

West

TCU
Baylor
KSU
ISU
Houston
Memphis
06-07-2019 02:53 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #206
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
Been thinking some more about the initial ACC divisional alignment. Apologies if this alignment has already been proposed:

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Maryland/Boston College
NC State/Wake Forest
North Carolina/Duke
Virginia/Virginia Tech

This seems like it would have satisfied all existing ACC schools (or at least as much as the actual alignment did), while still allowing Miami to play BC annually.

Then if/when they bring on Pitt and Syracuse and trade UMD for Louisville, you have this:

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Louisville/Boston College
NC State/Wake Forest
North Carolina/Duke
Pittsburgh/Syracuse
Virginia/Virginia Tech

Any merit to this? Am I missing anything?
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 07:54 AM by Nerdlinger.)
06-27-2019 07:48 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #207
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(06-27-2019 07:48 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Been thinking some more about the initial ACC divisional alignment. Apologies if this alignment has already been proposed:

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Maryland/Boston College
NC State/Wake Forest
North Carolina/Duke
Virginia/Virginia Tech

This seems like it would have satisfied all existing ACC schools (or at least as much as the actual alignment did), while still allowing Miami to play BC annually.

Then if/when they bring on Pitt and Syracuse and trade UMD for Louisville, you have this:

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Louisville/Boston College
NC State/Wake Forest
North Carolina/Duke
Pittsburgh/Syracuse
Virginia/Virginia Tech

Any merit to this? Am I missing anything?

Personally, I don't have any big problems with this. Not perfect, but not bad either.
06-27-2019 12:57 PM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #208
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(06-27-2019 07:48 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Been thinking some more about the initial ACC divisional alignment. Apologies if this alignment has already been proposed:

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Maryland/Boston College
NC State/Wake Forest
North Carolina/Duke
Virginia/Virginia Tech

This seems like it would have satisfied all existing ACC schools (or at least as much as the actual alignment did), while still allowing Miami to play BC annually.

Then if/when they bring on Pitt and Syracuse and trade UMD for Louisville, you have this:

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Louisville/Boston College
NC State/Wake Forest
North Carolina/Duke
Pittsburgh/Syracuse
Virginia/Virginia Tech

Any merit to this? Am I missing anything?


Swap Wake/NC State, Pitt/BC, and VT/UVA and you have a deal.
06-27-2019 03:23 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #209
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(06-27-2019 03:23 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 07:48 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Been thinking some more about the initial ACC divisional alignment. Apologies if this alignment has already been proposed:

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Maryland/Boston College
NC State/Wake Forest
North Carolina/Duke
Virginia/Virginia Tech

This seems like it would have satisfied all existing ACC schools (or at least as much as the actual alignment did), while still allowing Miami to play BC annually.

Then if/when they bring on Pitt and Syracuse and trade UMD for Louisville, you have this:

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Louisville/Boston College
NC State/Wake Forest
North Carolina/Duke
Pittsburgh/Syracuse
Virginia/Virginia Tech

Any merit to this? Am I missing anything?


Swap Wake/NC State, Pitt/BC, and VT/UVA and you have a deal.

You'd rather have Clemson play Wake than NC State?

Unfortunately, that alignment wouldn't fly because UNC is in the Atlantic and its 3 major rivals (Duke, NCSU, UVA) are in the Coastal. It can only play one of those annually via protected crossover. Also, putting BC in the Atlantic defeats the purpose of allowing Miami to play them every year. Finally, having Clemson, FSU, and VT in one division and Miami in the other is terribly unbalanced.
(This post was last modified: 06-27-2019 04:55 PM by Nerdlinger.)
06-27-2019 04:48 PM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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Post: #210
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(06-27-2019 04:48 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 03:23 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 07:48 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Been thinking some more about the initial ACC divisional alignment. Apologies if this alignment has already been proposed:

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Maryland/Boston College
NC State/Wake Forest
North Carolina/Duke
Virginia/Virginia Tech

This seems like it would have satisfied all existing ACC schools (or at least as much as the actual alignment did), while still allowing Miami to play BC annually.

Then if/when they bring on Pitt and Syracuse and trade UMD for Louisville, you have this:

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Louisville/Boston College
NC State/Wake Forest
North Carolina/Duke
Pittsburgh/Syracuse
Virginia/Virginia Tech

Any merit to this? Am I missing anything?


Swap Wake/NC State, Pitt/BC, and VT/UVA and you have a deal.

You'd rather have Clemson play Wake than NC State?

Unfortunately, that alignment wouldn't fly because UNC is in the Atlantic and its 3 major rivals (Duke, NCSU, UVA) are in the Coastal. It can only play one of those annually via protected crossover. Also, putting BC in the Atlantic defeats the purpose of allowing Miami to play them every year. Finally, having Clemson, FSU, and VT in one division and Miami in the other is terribly unbalanced.

True, but you're not far off I think. Let's go with Kap's suggestion, but with one small change: swap UNC for Wake.

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Louisville/Pittsburgh
NC State/North Carolina
Wake Forest/Duke
Boston College/Syracuse
Virginia Tech/Virginia

PRO:
Atlantic: same as now except effectively swaps VT for Syracuse; juggles crossovers accordingly; restores old VT rivalries
Coastal: UNC/Duke/UVA are all annual; so is Pitt/Syracuse and GT/Miami; may give some teams like Miami and Syracuse room to grow

CON: Concentrates former ACC FB champs into one division (4 to 1); will the Coastal champ make a good showing in the ACC CG?
06-29-2019 06:17 AM
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XLance Offline
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Post: #211
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(06-29-2019 06:17 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 04:48 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 03:23 PM)Kaplony Wrote:  
(06-27-2019 07:48 AM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Been thinking some more about the initial ACC divisional alignment. Apologies if this alignment has already been proposed:

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Maryland/Boston College
NC State/Wake Forest
North Carolina/Duke
Virginia/Virginia Tech

This seems like it would have satisfied all existing ACC schools (or at least as much as the actual alignment did), while still allowing Miami to play BC annually.

Then if/when they bring on Pitt and Syracuse and trade UMD for Louisville, you have this:

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Louisville/Boston College
NC State/Wake Forest
North Carolina/Duke
Pittsburgh/Syracuse
Virginia/Virginia Tech

Any merit to this? Am I missing anything?


Swap Wake/NC State, Pitt/BC, and VT/UVA and you have a deal.

You'd rather have Clemson play Wake than NC State?

Unfortunately, that alignment wouldn't fly because UNC is in the Atlantic and its 3 major rivals (Duke, NCSU, UVA) are in the Coastal. It can only play one of those annually via protected crossover. Also, putting BC in the Atlantic defeats the purpose of allowing Miami to play them every year. Finally, having Clemson, FSU, and VT in one division and Miami in the other is terribly unbalanced.

True, but you're not far off I think. Let's go with Kap's suggestion, but with one small change: swap UNC for Wake.

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Louisville/Pittsburgh
NC State/North Carolina
Wake Forest/Duke
Boston College/Syracuse
Virginia Tech/Virginia

PRO:
Atlantic: same as now except effectively swaps VT for Syracuse; juggles crossovers accordingly; restores old VT rivalries
Coastal: UNC/Duke/UVA are all annual; so is Pitt/Syracuse and GT/Miami; may give some teams like Miami and Syracuse room to grow

CON: Concentrates former ACC FB champs into one division (4 to 1); will the Coastal champ make a good showing in the ACC CG?


Division 1:
UVa, Duke, Wake Forest, Carolina, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Florida State

Division 2:
VT, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, NC State, Louisville, Miami
06-29-2019 07:03 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #212
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(06-29-2019 06:17 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  True, but you're not far off I think. Let's go with Kap's suggestion, but with one small change: swap UNC for Wake.

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Louisville/Pittsburgh
NC State/North Carolina
Wake Forest/Duke
Boston College/Syracuse
Virginia Tech/Virginia

PRO:
Atlantic: same as now except effectively swaps VT for Syracuse; juggles crossovers accordingly; restores old VT rivalries
Coastal: UNC/Duke/UVA are all annual; so is Pitt/Syracuse and GT/Miami; may give some teams like Miami and Syracuse room to grow

CON: Concentrates former ACC FB champs into one division (4 to 1); will the Coastal champ make a good showing in the ACC CG?

The competitive imbalance in favor of the Atlantic is too great for this to be viable, I think. Also, still separates Miami and BC. What old VT rivalries are you referring to?
06-29-2019 05:54 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #213
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(06-29-2019 07:03 AM)XLance Wrote:  Division 1:
UVa, Duke, Wake Forest, Carolina, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Florida State

Division 2:
VT, Syracuse, BC, Pitt, NC State, Louisville, Miami

Now it's NC State whose 3 major rivals are in the opposite division. Trade NC State for Virginia and you're in business.
06-29-2019 05:56 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #214
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(06-29-2019 05:54 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  
(06-29-2019 06:17 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  True, but you're not far off I think. Let's go with Kap's suggestion, but with one small change: swap UNC for Wake.

ATLANTIC/COASTAL
Clemson/Georgia Tech
Florida State/Miami-FL
Louisville/Pittsburgh
NC State/North Carolina
Wake Forest/Duke
Boston College/Syracuse
Virginia Tech/Virginia

PRO:
Atlantic: same as now except effectively swaps VT for Syracuse; juggles crossovers accordingly; restores old VT rivalries
Coastal: UNC/Duke/UVA are all annual; so is Pitt/Syracuse and GT/Miami; may give some teams like Miami and Syracuse room to grow

CON: Concentrates former ACC FB champs into one division (4 to 1); will the Coastal champ make a good showing in the ACC CG?

The competitive imbalance in favor of the Atlantic is too great for this to be viable, I think. Also, still separates Miami and BC. What old VT rivalries are you referring to?

Virginia Tech has much more history with Wake (closest opponent in the conference), NC State, and even FSU (back in ye old day), than Duke, UNC, and Miami.

You want to talk viability? Marquee TV games > division balance.

The above configured division maximizes TV games, but it gets sort of weird during rivalry week because you have the distant possibility of rematches. Also, if BC is in a division with a team in FLA, it should be Miami. Let's just trade BC/SU for VaTech/Pitt and call it a day. I'll sit back and watch the Return of the Mack with a bottle of fire on hand.
(This post was last modified: 06-29-2019 07:12 PM by esayem.)
06-29-2019 07:10 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
If marquee matchups are what matter, why not screw competitive balance altogether?

Strong: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami-FL, NC State, Virginia Tech
Weak: Wake Forest, Syracuse, Duke, Pittsburgh, Boston College, North Carolina, Virginia
(This post was last modified: 06-29-2019 08:07 PM by Nerdlinger.)
06-29-2019 07:59 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #216
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(06-29-2019 07:59 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  If marquee matchups are what matter, why not screw competitive balance altogether?

Strong: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami-FL, NC State, Virginia Tech
Weak: Wake Forest, Syracuse, Duke, Pittsburgh, Boston College, North Carolina, Virginia

Because the cross-division rival provides the ability to match some great yearly TV games while still keeping the league geographically balanced.
06-29-2019 08:31 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #217
RE: What if ACC expansion had gone according to plan?
(05-21-2019 06:55 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  A Clemson fan who goes by MSTiger02 [IIRC] on this site wrote a guest article for ACCFootballRx in which he contends that the ACC's original plan was to add Miami, BC and Syracuse (not VT). He goes on to assert that if that had happened, VT would most likely be in the SEC today (instead of Missouri).

What if everything had gone according to plan?

Sometimes it works out best when things DON'T go according to plan (e.g. Louisville replacing Maryland also).

Thoughts?
2003 If the ACC takes Syracuse, Boston College and Miami then....
In ~2010 it might have caused these moves by 2012:
SEC: Texas A&M and Virginia Tech (Why: Footprint model Virginia has more people than Missouri)
Big 10: Maryland and Rutgers (Why: Still the best 2 population wise)
Big 12: T.C.U. ( They only needed 1 and TCU had UT's favor)
PAC: Utah and Colorado (Why: Nothing would have really changed for them.)
ACC: Pittsburgh, and West Virginia (Why: Both good at multiple sports and both are new markets)
When Maryland departs Louisville is still the replacement.

So the PAC would have looked like this:
Arizona, Arizona St., California, Cal Los Angeles, Colorado, Oregon, Oregon St, Southern Cal, Stanford, Utah, Washington, Washington St.

The Big 12 would have looked like this:
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Tech, T.C.U.

The SEC would have looked like this:
Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Louisiana St, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Texas A&M
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech

The Big 10 would have been the same.

The ACC would have looked like this:
Boston College, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia, Wake Forest, West Virginia

Geographically it would have been more cohesive with fewer outliers.

What would it have meant for today?

The emphasis of the Big 10 for realignment might well have been Missouri and Oklahoma.

The emphasis for the SEC might have been Texas and Kansas, unless Texas wanted Tech (2 ESPN favorites).

The PAC might have been looking for Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri to go to 16, but would still be in the same shape they are today and still not likely to land them.

Provided N.D. would still have been a partial then the ACC probably would still be dreaming of an independent Texas association.
(This post was last modified: 06-29-2019 11:25 PM by JRsec.)
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