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No deal Brexit is the best deal
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Post: #21
RE: No deal Brexit is the best deal
I really don't understand why people make simple things so difficult.

1) UK regulation changes don't take effect for 180 days after Brexit.
2) EU can change regulations, but those will not apply to UK.
3) No tariffs either way during that time frame to ease transition for companies.
4) Nobody pays any $65 billion in fees.
5) Continue to allow free movement for 180 days of EU citizens and legal residents as of 10/31.

UK can simply say that's the way it is and tariffs only apply immediately if EU applies them.
10-08-2019 01:19 PM
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Post: #22
RE: No deal Brexit is the best deal
(09-23-2019 07:04 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I still think we cut a trade deal with Britain as soon as Brexit is done. I might even favor cheating a little bit and having the nuts and bolts in place before. The easiest way may be just to let them into NAFTA or whatever we are calling the new NAFTA.

I’d give very serious consideration to doing some sort of deal with the whole Commonwealth, maybe even some kind of associate membership, although I would never ever consider recognizing the Queen as having any rule over us. We fought and won that war 240 years ago.

I can see where a trade deal with the whole Commonwealth could be very much in our self-interest. I could also see a defense treaty. We are pretty much stuck in the world policeman role until somebody steps up to take over at least part of it. There has been some discussion in professional military journals about uniting the Commonwealth armed forces—basically recreate what existed prior to WWII. A united Commonwealth navy would easily be the second strongest in the world, and in overall military terms no worse than third or forth. That would be a force that we could hand off some commitments to—UK in Europe, India in the IO, Australia and Singapore and Canada in the Pacific. I think it would be worth pursuing.

Plus it would be fun for our athletes to get to compete in the Commonwealth Games.

The "Five Eyes" treaty already integrates the military intelligence and espionage operations of the USA, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. From what I gather, the CIA is legally obliged to share information with Mi6 just like they would with the FBI. That's an incredible degree of cooperation.

I'd have no problem with a formal military architecture for the Anglosphere. We face common problems, and we share a common cultural heritage so there's unlikely to be many future problems with this group.

But the implementation will be tricky.

First, when you say "Commonwealth," the Brits will see that as incorporating both Pakistan AND India. And South Africa, Zimbabwe, Jamaica, Belize, and over 40 other countries, for a total of 53 countries (plus the USA).

Second, 49 of the 54 countries will combine for only 7% of the GDP. They won't be able to add much to collective security.

Third, the USA is clearly going to be the biggest power in the group, with about 65% of the GDP and military power. That will raise fears among the others of the US dominating the alliance, and leaving everyone else out of decision making.

Fourth, the UK is clearly going to be the second biggest power in the group, so if the USA and UK agree on anything, it will get done even over the objections of every other member.

The EU got around this sort of problem by having 4 big pillars of roughly equal size (West Germany, France, UK, Italy) who had equal representation, and offered tremendous economic benefits for the smaller members. You're going to have a hard time convincing New Zealand or the Bahamas (who are wealthy and face few security threats) that there's many advantages for them in joining this group. The only smaller countries who sign up will be the ones who will be eternal security headaches for the US and UK.
10-08-2019 06:33 PM
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