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The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
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Post: #61
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
I think they expand with limited new money if the Big and/or SEC get concerned about being left out.

That said, it was pretty clear there was a lot of extra money if they had gone to 8 when they started the playoff. There was lots of discussion about it. The only question would be if the market has changed for the worse for that, and the odds are, it has changed for the better.
05-02-2019 11:26 AM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #62
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
(05-02-2019 11:16 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 11:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 08:25 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 12:56 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Why should an expanded playoff just give more access to all P5's? If you're not going to concede 1 spot to the highest G5 champion than they should do the top 8 ranked teams without any sort of P5/G5 champion monkier attached.

Because that’s the only way it will happen; the P5 need assurance they have a spot locked in.

I don't necessarily agree with this. IMO the biggest factor will be money. The BCS became the CFP because Disney was willing to pay a LOT more money for the CFP.

If the same is true for an 8-team playoff, we will get an 8-team playoff, even if the TV networks veto the idea of P5 champ auto-bids.

If there isn't more money in it, we won't get an 8-team playoff no matter what the format.

The biggest factor is money, for sure, and as with March Madness, the CFP playoff is only going to expand if a ton of new money is offered for an expansion. But I have never seen any indication that ESPN or any other TV outlet would block autobids for P5 champs. If anything, ESPN and Fox would be enthusiastic about those autobids because that would make the rights they already own for CCGs much more valuable.

Plus there have been auto-bids dating back to the 50's in this sport. The Orange Bowl locked in the Big 8 champ for 50 years! As did the SEC with the Sugar and SWC with the Cotton. Oh yeah, the Grandaddy of Them All. That's a thing. You bet there were other more "deserving" teams out there that would have loved to collect that payday.

All of this crying about auto-bids not being fair is plain dumb. We have them now in the Access Bowls! Access Bowls have auto-bids and PAY MORE MONEY. The old tradition continues.

To the Cincinnati guy talking about extreme scenarios: the only thing extreme about it is watching the MAC champ being punished in the Orange Bowl again. Lord forbid we have to see FAU run the table and get smoked in the Peach by Michigan. At least teams like Hawaii and Utah were ranked high enough by everybody to deserve a shot, it wasn't some best of the rest sympathy bid.

You put Notre Dame, BYU, and the other Independent schools in the same pool as the G5 auto-bid, and maybe we'll talk. For some reason I don't see your faction supporting that despite the fact they play tougher schedules.
05-02-2019 09:25 PM
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Kit-Cat Offline
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Post: #63
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
(05-02-2019 09:25 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 11:16 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 11:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 08:25 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 12:56 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Why should an expanded playoff just give more access to all P5's? If you're not going to concede 1 spot to the highest G5 champion than they should do the top 8 ranked teams without any sort of P5/G5 champion monkier attached.

Because that’s the only way it will happen; the P5 need assurance they have a spot locked in.

I don't necessarily agree with this. IMO the biggest factor will be money. The BCS became the CFP because Disney was willing to pay a LOT more money for the CFP.

If the same is true for an 8-team playoff, we will get an 8-team playoff, even if the TV networks veto the idea of P5 champ auto-bids.

If there isn't more money in it, we won't get an 8-team playoff no matter what the format.

The biggest factor is money, for sure, and as with March Madness, the CFP playoff is only going to expand if a ton of new money is offered for an expansion. But I have never seen any indication that ESPN or any other TV outlet would block autobids for P5 champs. If anything, ESPN and Fox would be enthusiastic about those autobids because that would make the rights they already own for CCGs much more valuable.

Plus there have been auto-bids dating back to the 50's in this sport. The Orange Bowl locked in the Big 8 champ for 50 years! As did the SEC with the Sugar and SWC with the Cotton. Oh yeah, the Grandaddy of Them All. That's a thing. You bet there were other more "deserving" teams out there that would have loved to collect that payday.

All of this crying about auto-bids not being fair is plain dumb. We have them now in the Access Bowls! Access Bowls have auto-bids and PAY MORE MONEY. The old tradition continues.

To the Cincinnati guy talking about extreme scenarios: the only thing extreme about it is watching the MAC champ being punished in the Orange Bowl again. Lord forbid we have to see FAU run the table and get smoked in the Peach by Michigan. At least teams like Hawaii and Utah were ranked high enough by everybody to deserve a shot, it wasn't some best of the rest sympathy bid.

You put Notre Dame, BYU, and the other Independent schools in the same pool as the G5 auto-bid, and maybe we'll talk. For some reason I don't see your faction supporting that despite the fact they play tougher schedules.

The higher historical quality that you speak of is self perpetuating when the P5 but in so many barriers to making a major post season game.

Those with the major conference access watched their recruiting tick up while those without it became mid major.

The advantages are so extreme at this point the P5 doesn't even care about increasing the crumb size which is what we've seen in the last 10 to 15 years.
05-02-2019 09:32 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #64
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
(05-02-2019 09:25 PM)esayem Wrote:  You put Notre Dame, BYU, and the other Independent schools in the same pool as the G5 auto-bid, and maybe we'll talk. For some reason I don't see your faction supporting that despite the fact they play tougher schedules.

This point is exactly why teams back in the day preferred to be Independent. They had autonomy over their schedule and could mix in regional rivals with tough, nationally ranked opponents. If anything, seeing some football programs go it alone would be better for the sport and the fans.

Winning a G5 conference currently does not mean they have any sort of auto-access. They have to be hand picked over another G5 conference champ. Hell, they don't even need to win their conference, they just need to be higher ranked than any other G5 team. Winning a G5 conference championship means absolutely nothing.

This is why BYU will never join your G5 conference.
05-02-2019 09:35 PM
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Post: #65
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
(05-02-2019 09:35 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 09:25 PM)esayem Wrote:  You put Notre Dame, BYU, and the other Independent schools in the same pool as the G5 auto-bid, and maybe we'll talk. For some reason I don't see your faction supporting that despite the fact they play tougher schedules.

This point is exactly why teams back in the day preferred to be Independent. They had autonomy over their schedule and could mix in regional rivals with tough, nationally ranked opponents. If anything, seeing some football programs go it alone would be better for the sport and the fans.

Winning a G5 conference currently does not mean they have any sort of auto-access. They have to be hand picked over another G5 conference champ. Hell, they don't even need to win their conference, they just need to be higher ranked than any other G5 team. Winning a G5 conference championship means absolutely nothing.

This is why BYU will never join your G5 conference.
To the point you bolded, a non-champion G5 (or Independent, or a non-champion from the PAC-12 or Big 12) team does not have automatic access to the NY6 even if they are ranked higher than the rest of the G5. Such a team must be ranked in the Top 12 or higher and qualify as an at-large.
05-04-2019 03:09 PM
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esayem Offline
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Post: #66
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
(05-04-2019 03:09 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 09:35 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 09:25 PM)esayem Wrote:  You put Notre Dame, BYU, and the other Independent schools in the same pool as the G5 auto-bid, and maybe we'll talk. For some reason I don't see your faction supporting that despite the fact they play tougher schedules.

This point is exactly why teams back in the day preferred to be Independent. They had autonomy over their schedule and could mix in regional rivals with tough, nationally ranked opponents. If anything, seeing some football programs go it alone would be better for the sport and the fans.

Winning a G5 conference currently does not mean they have any sort of auto-access. They have to be hand picked over another G5 conference champ. Hell, they don't even need to win their conference, they just need to be higher ranked than any other G5 team. Winning a G5 conference championship means absolutely nothing.

This is why BYU will never join your G5 conference.
To the point you bolded, a non-champion G5 (or Independent, or a non-champion from the PAC-12 or Big 12) team does not have automatic access to the NY6 even if they are ranked higher than the rest of the G5. Such a team must be ranked in the Top 12 or higher and qualify as an at-large.

So the highest ranked G5 team HAS to win their CCG? What if they don’t get to play in it because their one loss was week one against a conference foe? Hypothetically, they end the season ranked ahead of all other G5 teams?
05-04-2019 03:55 PM
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Post: #67
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
(05-02-2019 09:25 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 11:16 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 11:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 08:25 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 12:56 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Why should an expanded playoff just give more access to all P5's? If you're not going to concede 1 spot to the highest G5 champion than they should do the top 8 ranked teams without any sort of P5/G5 champion monkier attached.

Because that’s the only way it will happen; the P5 need assurance they have a spot locked in.

I don't necessarily agree with this. IMO the biggest factor will be money. The BCS became the CFP because Disney was willing to pay a LOT more money for the CFP.

If the same is true for an 8-team playoff, we will get an 8-team playoff, even if the TV networks veto the idea of P5 champ auto-bids.

If there isn't more money in it, we won't get an 8-team playoff no matter what the format.

The biggest factor is money, for sure, and as with March Madness, the CFP playoff is only going to expand if a ton of new money is offered for an expansion. But I have never seen any indication that ESPN or any other TV outlet would block autobids for P5 champs. If anything, ESPN and Fox would be enthusiastic about those autobids because that would make the rights they already own for CCGs much more valuable.

Plus there have been auto-bids dating back to the 50's in this sport.

But not for playoffs. It's funny watching many here insist that the P5 won't go to 8 unless their are P5 playoff autobids, when the P5 has never insisted on autobids in any playoff format ever.

And yes, they could have created such a system at any time in the past 70 or so years, and yes, they could have insisted that the BCS champ game and the CFP consist solely of conference champions. But they didn't.

There's zero evidence that the P5 have a raging desire for champ auto-bids.
05-06-2019 07:54 AM
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Post: #68
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
The hubbub stems from P5 conferences missing the playoffs, this is a fact. The logical way to prevent that is to secure an auto-bid, just like they did with access bowls, and before that BCS bowls, alliance bowls, coalition bowls, and just plain NYD bowls with the largest payout. I’m just following the paper trail here.

There is no evidence saying they won’t push for that either.
05-06-2019 08:38 AM
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Post: #69
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
Think the best way to do it is 5-2-1.

End all divisions so the top two teams in each conference are the ones playing for the autobid.

This way the SEC can get their 2 teams in per year, each P5 conference is represented and the G5 is now playing for the same thing as the P5. The last thing we need is an actual P5/G5 split.
05-06-2019 08:55 AM
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Post: #70
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
(05-06-2019 07:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 09:25 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 11:16 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 11:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 08:25 AM)esayem Wrote:  Because that’s the only way it will happen; the P5 need assurance they have a spot locked in.

I don't necessarily agree with this. IMO the biggest factor will be money. The BCS became the CFP because Disney was willing to pay a LOT more money for the CFP.

If the same is true for an 8-team playoff, we will get an 8-team playoff, even if the TV networks veto the idea of P5 champ auto-bids.

If there isn't more money in it, we won't get an 8-team playoff no matter what the format.

The biggest factor is money, for sure, and as with March Madness, the CFP playoff is only going to expand if a ton of new money is offered for an expansion. But I have never seen any indication that ESPN or any other TV outlet would block autobids for P5 champs. If anything, ESPN and Fox would be enthusiastic about those autobids because that would make the rights they already own for CCGs much more valuable.

Plus there have been auto-bids dating back to the 50's in this sport.

But not for playoffs. It's funny watching many here insist that the P5 won't go to 8 unless their are P5 playoff autobids, when the P5 has never insisted on autobids in any playoff format ever.

And yes, they could have created such a system at any time in the past 70 or so years, and yes, they could have insisted that the BCS champ game and the CFP consist solely of conference champions. But they didn't.

There's zero evidence that the P5 have a raging desire for champ auto-bids.

I respect your opinion, but it's entirely different ballgame to have a conference championship requirement in a 4-team playoff (which, to be clear, the Big Ten and Pac-12 actually did push for initially) compared to auto-bids in an 8-team playoff. As I've stated previously, it's simple math: you mathematically *can't* have auto-bids in a 4-team playoff, so it's not relevant that they didn't insist on auto-bids previously in the playoff because it wasn't possible in the first place. The difference with an 8-team playoff is simply that you can now have ALL P5 champs in there automatically... and I really believe that it comes to an "all or none" decision. That is, either let all of the P5 champs in automatically or don't have any type of conference championship requirement at all (as is the case with the current 4-team playoff). The halfway in between "maybe we'll have 3 conference champs and 1 wild card or the top 6 conference champs or some other formula other than pure P5 auto-bids" is a half-measure that won't satisfy the core issue.

More importantly, as esayem notes, the P5 *does* have auto-bids in the form of contract bowls (which existed long before any type of national championship game, much less a playoff). The HUGE difference between the 4-team playoff system and the 8-team playoff system is that the contract bowl system will be fundamentally changed (or even eliminated entirely) with the 8-team playoff that they've been able to avoid in the 4-team playoff. The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl are paying their conference partners $40 million each when those games aren't the semifinals, which are guaranteed auto-bid paydays that will be no longer be there in an 8-team playoff system if those games are consolation bowls with even worse matchups than what they have now. I believe that you're just looking at it from a pure playoff money perspective, but the real calculation for the P5 is that they will still want the same *guaranteed* money and access in an 8-team playoff that they now have in the current *overall* contract bowl system... and that most likely means that the money and access of the first round of the 8-team playoff is going to have to effectively replace what those P5 leagues have now with the contract bowl system... and I don't see the P5 giving up a single inch on either guaranteed money or access in that round.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree here. I believe that the clamor for P5 auto-bids is VERY strong in connection with expanding to an 8-team playoff (which, once is again, is totally different than a conference champ requirement in the 4-team playoff system). Being left out of the 4-team playoff is considered a black mark against a conference in a way that wasn't true under the BCS system and the Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big 12 have all already experienced it (and the ACC will probably experience if/when Clemson has a couple of bad games at some point). Jim Delany and the Big Ten, who fought having a 4-team playoff until the very end and were criticized as traditionalists, may now be the ones that will end up pushing for an 8-team playoff... and that whole exercise is about having a 100% irondclad guaranteed playoff spot for the Big Ten (and its other P5 brothers) every single year. If we go to an 8-team playoff, there will be P5 auto-bids at a minimum. We're not moving to an 8-team playoff just to have the same open-ended playoff by committee system as the current setup with just a larger field.
(This post was last modified: 05-06-2019 10:04 AM by Frank the Tank.)
05-06-2019 10:04 AM
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Post: #71
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
(05-06-2019 07:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 09:25 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 11:16 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 11:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 08:25 AM)esayem Wrote:  Because that’s the only way it will happen; the P5 need assurance they have a spot locked in.

I don't necessarily agree with this. IMO the biggest factor will be money. The BCS became the CFP because Disney was willing to pay a LOT more money for the CFP.

If the same is true for an 8-team playoff, we will get an 8-team playoff, even if the TV networks veto the idea of P5 champ auto-bids.

If there isn't more money in it, we won't get an 8-team playoff no matter what the format.

The biggest factor is money, for sure, and as with March Madness, the CFP playoff is only going to expand if a ton of new money is offered for an expansion. But I have never seen any indication that ESPN or any other TV outlet would block autobids for P5 champs. If anything, ESPN and Fox would be enthusiastic about those autobids because that would make the rights they already own for CCGs much more valuable.

Plus there have been auto-bids dating back to the 50's in this sport.

But not for playoffs. It's funny watching many here insist that the P5 won't go to 8 unless their are P5 playoff autobids, when the P5 has never insisted on autobids in any playoff format ever.

And yes, they could have created such a system at any time in the past 70 or so years, and yes, they could have insisted that the BCS champ game and the CFP consist solely of conference champions. But they didn't.

There's zero evidence that the P5 have a raging desire for champ auto-bids.

There are autobids in every other NCAA sport and in every other NCAA division in football.
05-06-2019 02:19 PM
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Post: #72
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
(05-06-2019 10:04 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(05-06-2019 07:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 09:25 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 11:16 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 11:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I don't necessarily agree with this. IMO the biggest factor will be money. The BCS became the CFP because Disney was willing to pay a LOT more money for the CFP.

If the same is true for an 8-team playoff, we will get an 8-team playoff, even if the TV networks veto the idea of P5 champ auto-bids.

If there isn't more money in it, we won't get an 8-team playoff no matter what the format.

The biggest factor is money, for sure, and as with March Madness, the CFP playoff is only going to expand if a ton of new money is offered for an expansion. But I have never seen any indication that ESPN or any other TV outlet would block autobids for P5 champs. If anything, ESPN and Fox would be enthusiastic about those autobids because that would make the rights they already own for CCGs much more valuable.

Plus there have been auto-bids dating back to the 50's in this sport.

But not for playoffs. It's funny watching many here insist that the P5 won't go to 8 unless their are P5 playoff autobids, when the P5 has never insisted on autobids in any playoff format ever.

And yes, they could have created such a system at any time in the past 70 or so years, and yes, they could have insisted that the BCS champ game and the CFP consist solely of conference champions. But they didn't.

There's zero evidence that the P5 have a raging desire for champ auto-bids.

I respect your opinion, but it's entirely different ballgame to have a conference championship requirement in a 4-team playoff (which, to be clear, the Big Ten and Pac-12 actually did push for initially) compared to auto-bids in an 8-team playoff. As I've stated previously, it's simple math: you mathematically *can't* have auto-bids in a 4-team playoff, so it's not relevant that they didn't insist on auto-bids previously in the playoff because it wasn't possible in the first place. The difference with an 8-team playoff is simply that you can now have ALL P5 champs in there automatically... and I really believe that it comes to an "all or none" decision. That is, either let all of the P5 champs in automatically or don't have any type of conference championship requirement at all (as is the case with the current 4-team playoff). The halfway in between "maybe we'll have 3 conference champs and 1 wild card or the top 6 conference champs or some other formula other than pure P5 auto-bids" is a half-measure that won't satisfy the core issue.

More importantly, as esayem notes, the P5 *does* have auto-bids in the form of contract bowls (which existed long before any type of national championship game, much less a playoff). The HUGE difference between the 4-team playoff system and the 8-team playoff system is that the contract bowl system will be fundamentally changed (or even eliminated entirely) with the 8-team playoff that they've been able to avoid in the 4-team playoff. The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl are paying their conference partners $40 million each when those games aren't the semifinals, which are guaranteed auto-bid paydays that will be no longer be there in an 8-team playoff system if those games are consolation bowls with even worse matchups than what they have now.

I respect your view as well. I do think we fundamentally agree on one thing and disagree on another:

First, while obviously it was/is not mathematically possible to give all P5 champs autobids in either the BCS system or the CFP, IMO if that desire is a strong underlying motive force than why hasn't it been manifested anywhere? The CFP could have been structured so as to mandate that the top 4 teams all be conference champs. That would have left one champ still out, but it also would have signalled how strongly they felt about the preeminence of champs. But they didn't do that.

Even more to the point, why haven't we had a playoff system with all P5 champs included all along? There was no federal regulation that says a playoff large enough to accommodate all P5 champs be first worked up to with systems such as the BCS and CFP that didn't permit it. The Power conferences could have implemented an 8-team playoff with all P5 champs included in 2012, heck, in 1998 or before. But they didn't, which again suggests there is no burning desire for such a system. And if we'd had Straight 8 the past five years (8 team playoff but based only on rankings, no guarantees), 24 out of 25 of the P5 champs would have made the playoffs anyway, including all 5 from the B1G. IMO, that's close enough to "automatic" to mollify the apparently modest desire of the B1G or whoever to see their champ in the playoffs. I see no evidence that they would insist on a guarantee.

However, I do agree that the P5 will not agree to any system that doesn't guarantee at least as much money as the CFP does. In fact, I don't think they go to an 8-team playoff of any format unless a lot MORE money is guaranteed. It won't be done for just an incremental increase.

On that note, it's important to remember that bowl games don't really pay the conferences, TV does. That was made clear in 2012, when after the B1G and PAC announced that the Rose Bowl would pay them each $40m a year, the SEC and Big 12 soon after announced the formation of a "Champion's Bowl" that would do the same. That bowl was abandoned when they decided to just make the Sugar Bowl the "Champion's Bowl". And *that* happened when ESPN agreed to pay the same $80m it was paying for the Rose Bowl. The bowls are just a conduit for TV money to the conference, so it's not necessary to involve the bowls at all on the money end. As long as Disney or FOX or CBS or NBC is willing to say boost the payout from $500 million a year (CFP) to say $800 million a year for an 8-team playoff, that's all that matters. And, the same lopsided percentage can be guaranteed to the P5 regardless of who makes the playoffs. That said, I do think the NY6 would be involved, with 4 serving as QFs and 2 as semis on a rotating basis. That makes all NY6 bowls playoffs every year.

Personally, I don't expect an 8-team playoff in 2025 when the CFP deal ends, because I don't think there will be significant extra money on the table to do it, in any format. I think the enormous jump in money from the BCS to the CFP wasn't because the 4-team format was that much more valuable than the 2-team BCS was, I think it happened as a result of the general enormous jump in rights fees for college football that happened between 2008-2012 across the board as reflected in media deals made by the power conferences then. That was kind of a one-time discontinuous adjustment, IMO. We'll now go back to more incremental increases from this higher baseline.
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2019 07:39 AM by quo vadis.)
05-06-2019 03:59 PM
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Post: #73
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
Look at the TV ratings of the playoff bowls vs. the other bowls. There is likely a huge amount of money in there.

While I agree there is a fundamental desire not to change things, I don't think it takes a huge rights fee increase to generate change. There does need to be a significant value increase. And I think that guaranteed spot every year is that significant value, so that it only requires incremental extra dollars to get them to change. The whole reason for playing college football is exposure. If their conference gets shut out, it loses a lot of exposure.

And the guaranteed spot SIGNIFICANTLY broadens the number of teams who can get in. Virtually every long time member has won the Big 12, Big 10 and Pac 12 over the last 20 years or so. Even Wake Forest has won the ACC along with a number of others. With a 4 team playoff, realistically, only about half the P5 has a chance as they need to have a spectacular season, not just win a conference title.
05-06-2019 06:50 PM
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Post: #74
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
Going back to 1985 (the year after BYU won the title), there are only 35 schools that have finished in the final AP top 4 even once. 11 of those 35 only did it one time. 20 schools (the 17 national champs in those 34 years + Oregon, Washington and Georgia) have 117 of those 136 top 4 slots. They are even more dominant with 94 of the 102 top 3 slots.

So you have Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio St., Penn St., Notre Dame, Florida, FSU, Miami, Clemson, Colorado, Auburn, Tennessee, LSU, Oregon, Georgia and Washington dominating the top. TCU, Arizona St., Stanford and Utah have each been there twice. The other 11 are Michigan ST., Oklahoma St., Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech (Coach's national champ-#2 AP), Boise, Missouri, West Virginia, Syracuse, South Carolina, Oregon ST. and Wisconsin.

So you have 35-45 members of the P5 who have a lot to gain by expanding the playoffs with a guaranteed autobid.
05-06-2019 07:08 PM
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Post: #75
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
How often are Baylor or TCU or Oklahoma St. or Oregon ST. going to beat out an Ohio ST. or Alabama in a beauty contest as we have now?
05-06-2019 07:09 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #76
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
(05-06-2019 07:08 PM)bullet Wrote:  Going back to 1985 (the year after BYU won the title), there are only 35 schools that have finished in the final AP top 4 even once. 11 of those 35 only did it one time. 20 schools (the 17 national champs in those 34 years + Oregon, Washington and Georgia) have 117 of those 136 top 4 slots. They are even more dominant with 94 of the 102 top 3 slots.

So you have Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio St., Penn St., Notre Dame, Florida, FSU, Miami, Clemson, Colorado, Auburn, Tennessee, LSU, Oregon, Georgia and Washington dominating the top. TCU, Arizona St., Stanford and Utah have each been there twice. The other 11 are Michigan ST., Oklahoma St., Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech (Coach's national champ-#2 AP), Boise, Missouri, West Virginia, Syracuse, South Carolina, Oregon ST. and Wisconsin.

So you have 35-45 members of the P5 who have a lot to gain by expanding the playoffs with a guaranteed autobid.

How many schools since 1985 have won an outright P5 conference title, the kind that would auto-qualify for your 8 team playoff?

I bet it's a pretty small number as well. And e.g. just looking at the B1G, some of these schools that have, like NW and Illinois, have done so once. Not sure that's having a lot at stake here in any system.
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2019 07:37 AM by quo vadis.)
05-07-2019 07:33 AM
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Post: #77
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
Big 12-since 2009 everyone but Iowa St., Kansas, Texas Tech and West Virginia have won the title. WVU had Big East titles and 3 straight BCS bowl bids from 2005-2007.
Pac 12-since 1996 7 of the 10 old time members have won the title and gone to the Rose Bowl. Cal and Oregon St. have shared the title. Only Arizona hasn't won. Newer members, Colorado won the Big 12 in 2001 and Utah got to BCS bowls in the MWC.
SEC-I didn't mention them above because they have been more limited-5 schools have won the titles since 1998 with Tennessee being #6 with that year and those 6 have all the titles since UK shared a couple in the 70s.
Big 10-since 1995 9 of the 11 old time members-all but Indiana and Minnesota-have won a title. Maryland won the ACC in 2001 and Nebraska won the Big 12 in 1999.
ACC-since 2006 5 members have won. UVA shared in 95 with FSU and Duke and UVA shared in 1989. Syracuse, Miami, Pitt, Boston College and Louisville all won Big East titles. UNC and NCSU haven't won since 1980 and 1979.

So you have all but 11 schools excluding the SEC (3 Big 12, 3 Big 10, 2 ACC, 3 Pac 12). The SEC has 5, not counting A&M who won the Big 12 in the BCS era and Arkansas who won the SWC in 1988 & 1989. <edit-Missouri did not win the Big 12-they lost Big 12 ccg while ranked #1 in the crazy 2007 year>
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2019 05:47 PM by bullet.)
05-07-2019 08:52 AM
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Kaplony Offline
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Post: #78
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
(05-06-2019 02:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  
(05-06-2019 07:54 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 09:25 PM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 11:16 AM)Wedge Wrote:  
(05-02-2019 11:09 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  I don't necessarily agree with this. IMO the biggest factor will be money. The BCS became the CFP because Disney was willing to pay a LOT more money for the CFP.

If the same is true for an 8-team playoff, we will get an 8-team playoff, even if the TV networks veto the idea of P5 champ auto-bids.

If there isn't more money in it, we won't get an 8-team playoff no matter what the format.

The biggest factor is money, for sure, and as with March Madness, the CFP playoff is only going to expand if a ton of new money is offered for an expansion. But I have never seen any indication that ESPN or any other TV outlet would block autobids for P5 champs. If anything, ESPN and Fox would be enthusiastic about those autobids because that would make the rights they already own for CCGs much more valuable.

Plus there have been auto-bids dating back to the 50's in this sport.

But not for playoffs. It's funny watching many here insist that the P5 won't go to 8 unless their are P5 playoff autobids, when the P5 has never insisted on autobids in any playoff format ever.

And yes, they could have created such a system at any time in the past 70 or so years, and yes, they could have insisted that the BCS champ game and the CFP consist solely of conference champions. But they didn't.

There's zero evidence that the P5 have a raging desire for champ auto-bids.

There are autobids in every other NCAA sport and in every other NCAA division in football.

The NCAA controls those championships, they don't control FBS postseason play.
05-07-2019 09:00 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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Post: #79
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
(05-07-2019 07:33 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(05-06-2019 07:08 PM)bullet Wrote:  Going back to 1985 (the year after BYU won the title), there are only 35 schools that have finished in the final AP top 4 even once. 11 of those 35 only did it one time. 20 schools (the 17 national champs in those 34 years + Oregon, Washington and Georgia) have 117 of those 136 top 4 slots. They are even more dominant with 94 of the 102 top 3 slots.

So you have Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma, USC, Nebraska, Michigan, Ohio St., Penn St., Notre Dame, Florida, FSU, Miami, Clemson, Colorado, Auburn, Tennessee, LSU, Oregon, Georgia and Washington dominating the top. TCU, Arizona St., Stanford and Utah have each been there twice. The other 11 are Michigan ST., Oklahoma St., Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech (Coach's national champ-#2 AP), Boise, Missouri, West Virginia, Syracuse, South Carolina, Oregon ST. and Wisconsin.

So you have 35-45 members of the P5 who have a lot to gain by expanding the playoffs with a guaranteed autobid.

How many schools since 1985 have won an outright P5 conference title, the kind that would auto-qualify for your 8 team playoff?

I bet it's a pretty small number as well. And e.g. just looking at the B1G, some of these schools that have, like NW and Illinois, have done so once. Not sure that's having a lot at stake here in any system.

We don't even have to go back to 1985 to show the impact. Let's just look at the Big Ten. Since 2000, 6 of the 11 pre-expansion Big Ten schools have won *outright* conference titles. 9 of the 11 pre-expansion Big Ten schools have won at least one shared conference title since 2000, with the only two exceptions being Minnesota and Indiana. Nebraska has also won a division title since been added to the conference.

It's not just about those who actually won conference titles, either. The bigger impact is simply if your team is in the hunt at all even if it doesn't win. Minnesota is one of the 2 pre-expansion Big Ten teams to not have a conference title this century, but they still played for the Big Ten West division title on the last game of the season against Wisconsin in 2014. An 8-team playoff with P5 autobids turns that footnote game into a huge game with legitimate playoff implications and that drives interest accordingly. There's a huge psychological effect when your *own* team is still in the playoff race and we can see that in every other sport. More schools may or may not actually win more conference titles or national titles compared to before, but many more schools will be in the playoff race in any given year than before, which is what keeps fan bases returning year after year.

The *chance* to win, however unrealistic it might be, is what drives interest in watching sports in the first place. Otherwise, there would be no Cleveland Browns fans in the world and the Chicago Cubs certainly wouldn't have had any fans prior to 2016. I believe that the college football fans that support the playoff-by-committee selection process vastly underestimates the power of "We need to do x, y and z and then we're in the playoff with no questions asked" (and note that this needs to be something other than just flippantly saying, "Just go undefeated!") in terms of driving fandom.

In a weird way, both the CFP and BCS systems actually took away a lot of the objective "x, y and z" path in the sense that regardless of rankings in the pure poll era, the Big Ten and old Pac-10 champs always went to the Rose Bowl, the SEC champ always went to the Sugar Bowl, the old SWC champ always went to the Cotton Bowl, etc., so schools used to have a very clearly defined path at a certain level and the national rankings were determined by off-the-field polls out of their control. Today, the off-the-field national rankings are still out of their control, but the difference is that such national rankings directly determine the path of the on-the-field games that they play in the postseason. A team like 2018 Ohio State would have never felt slighted 25 years ago with its ranking because, no matter what, it was always going to go to the Rose Bowl if it won the Big Ten championship and that achievement was something that was completely in its control on-the-field regardless of rankings. A school ranked #5 could feel completely in control of its destiny in 1990 in a way that it doesn't feel in control of its destiny today. Once again, I think that all that most sports fans and teams themselves ever want is control of their own destiny, which inherently can't occur when the playoff selection process occurs in a conference room with some old guys in Dallas.
(This post was last modified: 05-07-2019 09:21 AM by Frank the Tank.)
05-07-2019 09:19 AM
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Post: #80
RE: The College Football Playoff’s 4-team format isn’t going anywhere
(05-06-2019 02:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  There are autobids in every other NCAA sport and in every other NCAA division in football.

... and yet FBS has never had any such playoff autobids. That does not scream a burning desire to have such autobids, does it?
05-07-2019 11:00 AM
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