The first round of the NFL draft is done. Time for an initial score:

SEC = 9 players
ACC = 8 players (I counted ND as ACC for this)
B1G = 7 players
B12 = 3 players
P12 = 3 players

G5 = 1 player (Houston)
FCS = 1 player (Alabama A&M)

This is typical of the NFL draft the last 5 years, where the P5 get 29 or 30, the G5 1 or and FCS 1 (e.g., Carson Wentz a couple years ago)

I wouldn't read too much into it beyond the B12 and P12 continue to trail the other three power conferences. I'd wait for three rounds, as after Bosa and Williams the draft was considered very flat, no much grade differentiation from 3rd to 30th or so, and very flat out to about 80th or so.

(Murray is a QB and they always jump their rating, so important is the position)

Notre Dame probably deserves their own category. Not exactly ACC, definitely not G5.

What was more interesting was the mix of positions. Top 19-3 QBs, 1 TE, 15 line/linebackers-2 OTs, 1 C, 4 LBs, 8 Defensive line.
No runnings backs, no secondary, no WR.

1st round
3 QBs
1 RB
2 WR
2 TE
3 Secondary
4 LBs
6 OL
11 Defensive Line

When the AAC is putting out the most (or the only) first rounders every year, they should probably be categorized by themselves.

Usually Heisman winners usually suck playing in the NFL. Murray is one that could be overrated than others right now.
Carson Wentz, Ben Roethlisberger and Blake Bortles and I also think Derrick Carr are better QBs in the NFL who did not came from a P5 school.

Number of draft picks by FBS conferences in 2018...

SEC 53
ACC 45
B1G 33
PAC 30
B12 20

AAC 18
CUSA 10
MW 9
MAC 5
SB 4

OK three rounds and the SEC is way ahead:

For the P5 (80 total):

SEC = 28
B1G = 15
ACC = 14 (2 are ND)
B12 = 12
P12 = 11

For the G5 (17 total):

AAC = 4
MWC = 4
CUSA = 4
MAC = 3
SBC = 0
Independents = 2

FCS (4):
1 each SWAC, CAA, MVFC, OVC

D-II/D-II/NAIA etc. = 1

Basically the NFL is saying the American has not separated. And they see the SBC as closer to FCS than rest of the G5 for talent. The G5 looks like an even pile.

As for the per school totals of the G5 (counting ND as ACC):

SEC = 2.000
B12 = 1.200
B1G = 1.071
ACC = 0.933
P12 = 0.917

or alternately
SEC (14 schools) = 28 --> 2.00 per school
P5 (51 schools) = 52 --> 1.02 per school

The rest of the P5 is just margin of error for draft picks in the first three rounds. The SEC is where the 1/3 of the top talent is in just 14 schools. It's not the top which is the SEC depth advantage but the middle, where several teams have good talent on par with the top schools of other conferences. So you see Kentucky, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, et al, chipping in top 100 NFL draft picks.

A tough concession to make as a B1G fan, but there it is, undeniable.

(04-26-2019 03:29 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The first round of the NFL draft is done. Time for an initial score:

SEC = 9 players
ACC = 8 players (I counted ND as ACC for this)

Why didn't you count UCLA for the ACC as well? Makes as much sense.

(04-26-2019 11:04 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(04-26-2019 03:29 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The first round of the NFL draft is done. Time for an initial score:

SEC = 9 players
ACC = 8 players (I counted ND as ACC for this)

Why didn't you count UCLA for the ACC as well? Makes as much sense.

ND plays 5 ACC teams a year and is in the ACC for other sports. I could have made them an Indy, but it doesn't make much difference in the numbers. I just wanted one fewer row of data

They are still non-SEC, so their 2 drafted players contribute to the 52 from the 51 non-SEC schools. If you remove them and just count the 50 non-SEC conference members then it's 1.00 per school instead of 1.02. ND in the ACC or not is a rounding error.

Final Rankings, first on a totals and per school basis, and then a point value basis (used 400 - pick # for each pick value)

Totals by Conference:

63 SEC
39 B1G
34 ACC (+ ND)
33 P12
27 B12

196 P5 Total (77.2% of draft picks)

11 AAC
10 MAC
10 MWC
6 CUSA
2 Independents
1 SBC

40 G5 Total (15.7% of draft picks)

3 CAA
3 MVFC
2 OVC
2 SWAC
2 MEAC
1 Big Sky

13 FCS Total (5.1% of draft picks)

5 D-II and others (2% of draft picks)

Conferences by Per School

4.500 SEC
2.786 B1G
2.750 P12
2.700 B12
2.267 ACC + ND

2.608 non-SEC P5 average

0.917 AAC
0.833 MAC
0.833 MWC
0.429 CUSA
0.400 Independents

0.103 FCS (all)
0.100 SBC
0.025 D-II

0.709 for non-SBC G5 average

note: The SBC talent is seen as closer to FCS than G5 by the NFL

Now not all picks are the same value, so I built a point system to get a rough gauge, each pick is worth 400 less it's slot. Thus the first pick is worth 399 points, and the last pick 146 points. This still gives weight to lower picks but makes 1st and 2nd round picks far higher value -but not off the charts. It's arbitrary sure, but we are only looking for ball park estimates here :

conference = total points = per school points = ave pick value
SEC = 17,647 = 1260.5 = 280.1
B1G = 11,209 = 800.6 = 287.4
B12 = 7,527 = 752.7 = 278.8
P12 = 8,790 = 732.5 = 266.4
ACC+ND = 9,675 = 645.0 = 284.6

non-SEC P5 = 37,201 = 729.4 = 279.7

The per selection rankings are pretty much the same for all P5. The SEC however has 50% more NFL draft selections per school.

AAC = 2920 = 243.3 = 265.5
MWC = 2388 = 199.0 = 238.8
MAC = 2364 = 197.0 = 236.4
Indy = 658 = 131.6 = 329.0
CUSA = 1658 = 118.4 = 276.33

FCS =2990 = 23.7 = 230.0
SBC = 197 = 19.7 = 197.0

D-II = 1192 = 7.1 = 238.4


G5 sees fewer players drafted, so an individual like Ed Oliver can skew the per school. If you don't count him, basically the AAC, MWC and MAC are seen by the NFL as equal talent providers. Tells me AAC is doing better with non quite NFL talent, since they also lack the 4* and 5* players. CUSA has slipped, and again SBC either had a horrible year or is seen as FCS level.

To get a more accurate picture you probably need the above over a 5 year rolling average. But for a single year snap shot, this seems to match the eye test.

Nebraska’s 56-year draftee streak was broken. 1-11 Central Michigan developed 2 draftees.

You can not count Ed Oliver to fit your rant

(04-27-2019 08:36 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  You can not count Ed Oliver to fit your rant

What rant? I counted Oliver in all the data. But he is the delta between the AAC and the MWC and MAC. They are dead even if you take him out of the picture as an exceptional case, much like Derrick Carr over ranked the MWC a few years ago. If there were 25 players per conference selected, then an outlier player would be absorbed, as we see with the SEC per pick value being no different than any other P5. Nick Bosa and Quinlan Williams are absorbed by the large numbers of SEC and B1G players. The G5 the counts are too low - that was what my comment was about.

Again I mention it, as a caveat, but still recorded the value.

Context: there seems to be a great G5 player every year and they can come from anywhere. That is because the G5 doesn't get the 4* and 5* and relatively few 3* players. These are the self drivers who make something of themselves. Carson Wentz came from FCS even. The NFL will find you. It's just that the population of far above the norm players is randomly few once you get past the identified 4* and 5* players in High School.

I would be more comfortable over a 5 year period with such superlative outliers, than with a single year of data. That is what I was saying. And even counting him, the AAC, MWC and MAC could have all traded places had a single player drafted from the AAC have decided instead to play for a MAC or MWC school. That is how close they are.

In the five years that would have covered the overwhelming majority of all the draft picks the championships fall out like this: SEC 2, ACC 2, Big Slow 1.

(04-26-2019 12:45 PM)NBPirate Wrote:  When the AAC is putting out the most (or the only) first rounders every year, they should probably be categorized by themselves.

AAC is like the honky tonk draft. You get better players later. Still shaking my head how Tyler Eifert (ND) got drafted ahead of Travis Kelce (Cincinnati).