(04-09-2019 08:29 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  Does Trump now support higher interest rates?

He's pointing out that we're still outperforming, despite the Fed raising rates 4 times last year, and signaling 2-4 more this year, while Europe is still sitting on 0%. It's a sign of our economy's strength.

If Europe raises off 0%, they are done.

(04-09-2019 08:29 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  US GDP is currently 2.2
EU is 1.4

EU unemployment is currently 6.5%... Germany is 3.1% and Great Britain is 3.8%
US is currently 3.8%... though the once ballyhooed labor participation rate is 63%... it was 62.9% in January 2017.

It's a little disingenuous to now tout the US 10 year note when his Dad recently bashed the Fed and tried to fire the chairman for raising interest rates? The lending rate average in Germany is 2.0%. The US lending rate is 5.5%. Does Trump now support higher interest rates?

And now you've demonstrated that your 'handle' is a complete pipe dream

LPR was 64.5 in 2010 and 62.5 in late 2016. 63 is up, more important, so are wages.

I note you don't mention German GDP, which CONTRACTED in the 4th quarter of 2018

Interest rates are a means of stimulating a slow economy or slowing a 'hot' one. At 5.5%, we can do a WHOLE lot to further stimulate our economy and are arguably slowing it... meanwhile Germany only ZERO 'bullets' in their holster to stimulate their stagnant economy and UK has only a few.

If you think we're not very 'hot', then you should be joining Trump and encouraging the Fed to lower interest rates... or at least stop raising them.

If you don't understand economics any more than you do, you'd be well advised not to speak about it.

(04-09-2019 08:48 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  if the US economy is "super heated", why is GDP growth only 2.2%... and projections show it decreasing over the next two years to 1.9% in 2020 and then 1.8% in 2021?

Wonder if wonderboy Mensa will comment on this brilliant post he made after today's news on a 3.2 GDP growth.

(04-26-2019 11:43 AM)usmbacker Wrote:  

(04-09-2019 08:48 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  if the US economy is "super heated", why is GDP growth only 2.2%... and projections show it decreasing over the next two years to 1.9% in 2020 and then 1.8% in 2021?

Wonder if wonderboy Mensa will comment on this brilliant post he made after today's news on a 3.2 GDP growth.

Doubt it, he exited stage left once it became clear he didn't even understand what Eric Trump was getting at re: 10-year t-note.

I didn't see numbers for China in any of this. Anyone?

(04-26-2019 11:43 AM)usmbacker Wrote:  

(04-09-2019 08:48 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  if the US economy is "super heated", why is GDP growth only 2.2%... and projections show it decreasing over the next two years to 1.9% in 2020 and then 1.8% in 2021?

Wonder if wonderboy Mensa will comment on this brilliant post he made after today's news on a 3.2 GDP growth.

but it's not about GDP per se

It's about having a 2.5%+ GDP with a 5.5% lending rate. (That's Mensa's number)

Said simply (because this isn't how it happens, but it's a proxy) are you going to borrow at 5.5% in order to invest at 2.5% or even 3.5? This is why Trump wants lower rates and is mad at the Fed. The Fed is easily arguably SLOWING an economy that could obviously be doing even better with lower rates.

On the contrary, Europe's economy is very slow/contracting and they can't meaningfully lower interest rates to make it grow faster.

Our economy is not doing poorly, but it is NOT super-heated, so why are lending rates almost double GDP?

Mensa has been arguing out of both sides of his mouth because he clearly doesn't understand the correlation.


I'd note that UofM said HIGHER interest rates (not current interest rates) are a sign that the economy is super-heated or that the fed is concerned that it will super-heat.

He is absolutely correct, and Mensa's attempt to claim that he meant that the economy was currently super-heated is complete and utter bull

(04-08-2019 08:32 PM)ODUsmitty Wrote:  Hungary and Poland doing well. Hmmm, why could that be?

Lol, I saw a map recently, may have been on here, showing Muslim enclaves throughout Europe. Nary a blip in Poland or Hungary.

(04-26-2019 04:48 PM)Hambone10 Wrote:  

(04-26-2019 11:43 AM)usmbacker Wrote:  

(04-09-2019 08:48 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  if the US economy is "super heated", why is GDP growth only 2.2%... and projections show it decreasing over the next two years to 1.9% in 2020 and then 1.8% in 2021?

Wonder if wonderboy Mensa will comment on this brilliant post he made after today's news on a 3.2 GDP growth.

but it's not about GDP per se

It's about having a 2.5%+ GDP with a 5.5% lending rate. (That's Mensa's number)

Said simply (because this isn't how it happens, but it's a proxy) are you going to borrow at 5.5% in order to invest at 2.5% or even 3.5? This is why Trump wants lower rates and is mad at the Fed. The Fed is easily arguably SLOWING an economy that could obviously be doing even better with lower rates.

On the contrary, Europe's economy is very slow/contracting and they can't meaningfully lower interest rates to make it grow faster.

Our economy is not doing poorly, but it is NOT super-heated, so why are lending rates almost double GDP?

Mensa has been arguing out of both sides of his mouth because he clearly doesn't understand the correlation.


I'd note that UofM said HIGHER interest rates (not current interest rates) are a sign that the economy is super-heated or that the fed is concerned that it will super-heat.

He is absolutely correct, and Mensa's attempt to claim that he meant that the economy was currently super-heated is complete and utter bull

It happens when one doesn't update ones talking points regularly.

I love how bullish you've all become on America in 30 months.

(04-28-2019 08:04 AM)swagsurfer11 Wrote:  I love how bullish you've all become on America in 30 months.

Because many of us intelligent people are results oriented, and not "ideologically head up my ass" oriented like the people who bemoan the current state of the economy.

(04-27-2019 06:39 AM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  

(04-08-2019 08:32 PM)ODUsmitty Wrote:  Hungary and Poland doing well. Hmmm, why could that be?

Lol, I saw a map recently, may have been on here, showing Muslim enclaves throughout Europe. Nary a blip in Poland or Hungary.

^This. Neither Poland nor Hungary has accepted Muslim immigrants en masse.
Both countries are outperforming most of their neighbor countries economically in GDP growth rate (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Eu...GDP_growth)
Also worth noting neither country has had major issues with terrorism either.
Things that make you go hmmm.

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Say when children in their country grow up, they will be worse off financially than their parents:
France: 80%
??Spain: 72%
??UK 70%
??Greece 69%
??Italy 61%
??Netherlands 54%
??Germany 52%
??Sweden 50%
??Hungary 41%
??Poland 25%

Should we talk about how certain metrics are calculated in Europe versus in the US?

A key matter here is what is and what is not a non=performing loan? Much of the EU banking industry would be taken over by the FDIC and yet the Europeans want to continue to tell the world that the ship is not in fact on fire.