RE: Duling is transferring
I'm going to go on a little tangent here, but I'll bring it back to Duling, I promise...
I feel the classic 3/4 tweener is the most misunderstood player in basketball and maybe the most interesting. Very few seem to truly understand what attributes are needed to be a successful 3/4 tweener. Most think the key is the guy has to be fast enough off the dribble to beat bigs and be a good outside shooter. This is really not the truth though. Hands down the most important attributes for a successful 3/4 tweener are 1) physical strength to hold his own defensively against bigger opponents and 2) he has to be a good to great defender.
Notice I'm entirely talking about defense where normally people focus on offense. It's actually pretty simple when you think about it. A tweener is going to have to make some adjustments when moving up a level, so if their physical attributes and skillset translate to defense better then they're more likely to be able to stay on the court and eventually find their niche defensively. On offense you can dictate where a player gets the ball and what you want him to do with it. On defense the other team is trying to exploit your weak spots. So if you're a defensive liability you're going to have a harder time staying on the court.
It's actually remarkable how poorly understood this fact is from people at high levels. To illustrate this, let's look at some of the more notable 3/4 tweeners in recent memory in the NBA that were 6'8" or under. The six that come to mind are Jae Crowder (6'6"), Draymond Green (6'7"), Derrick Williams (6'8"), Paul Millsap (6'8"), Anthony Bennett (6'8"), and Jabari Parker (6'8"). When looking at how good a player's career has been I like to look at total Win Shares because it shows playing well and sticking in the league. Then for comparing players who have different durations comparing Win Shares per 48 minutes is a good metric. So here's some career numbers on these guys...
Millsap: 88.1 WS; 0.153 WS/48; 0.073 DWS/48; 33.4 3PT%; 942 games.
Green: 42.9 WS; 0.138 WS/48; 0.088 DWS/48; 32.2 3PT%; 529 games.
Crowder: 28.5 WS; 0.105 WS/48; 0.055 DWS/48; 33.9 3PT%; 539 games.
Williams: 14.1 WS; 0.076 WS/48; 0.037 DWS/48; 30.0 3PT%; 428 games.
Parker: 11.7 WS; 0.076 WS/48; 0.037 DWS/48; 33.7 3PT%; 247 games.
Bennett: 0.5 WS; 0.013 WS/48; 0.035 DWS/48; 26.1 3PT%; 151 games.
Millsap and Green are unquestionably the best players NBA from this group. As of right now it's safe to say Crowder has had the 3rd best career from this group. Bennett was out of the NBA real fast and while Williams' career was a long one on the Anthony Bennett scale, he didn't play very long either. Parker's been injury proned, but it's safe to say he has not come close to living up to his draft slot thus far.
Well, now let's look at where these guys were picked. Millsap was the 47th pick in his draft. Green was the 35th in his draft. Crowder was 34th. Williams and Parker were both 2nd and Bennett was 1st. So at the time they were being drafted you would've been called crazy if you said Bennett and Williams weren't going to stick in the league but Millsap and Green would be perennial all-stars with some HOF potential. But the trend is clear, the guys who defend are the guys who succeed. The guys who struggle defensively are the guys who struggle to stay in the league. According to DW/48, Millsap is roughly twice as good defensively as Williams, Parker, and Bennett. Green is even better and while Crowder isn't quite the defender that Millsap and Green are he's certainly not a liability.
You don't have to look far to see a great example of NBA teams not understanding what makes a good 3/4 tweener. One year before the Cavs made Anthony Bennett the worst first overall pick in NBA history they traded the 33rd and 34th picks to move up and take Tyler Zeller. That just so happened to be the same year that Crowder went 34th and Green went 35th. Just think how different the last few years would've been for the Cavs if they understood how to evaluate 3/4 tweeners.
So anyways, let's get back to Duling...
To start, I'm not actually convinced he's a 3/4 tweener in the MAC. 6'7" 235 is not really undersized to play the 4 in the MAC. How many MAC teams this year often ran lineups with 2 players significantly bigger than that? But for arguments sake, let's say he is the classic 3/4 tweener as some of you feel he is. Of our rotation players Duling had the highest DWS/40 (it's per 40 in college per 48 in the NBA) on the team at 0.0625. That's what frustrates me about his lack of minutes. We were a bad defensive team. He was one of our best defenders and he has the proper attributes that generally lead to successful 3/4 tweeners, but he didn't get the minutes. Heck, Peterson's defense kept him in the rotation for 3 years and he's probably not as good of a defender as Duling. Now I do understand that Duling fouled a lot. So planning to play him 25+ minutes a night might not have been a good idea. But he made a difference defensively when he was in there and we didn't have a 3rd big. So I really will never understand why he didn't get minutes. Now I do really like Sendy, so while I don't agree with Duling's usage I do usually agree with him and I do still think he's a very good coach. Just my thoughts.
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