The unofficial online home for fans of the Old Dominion University Monarchs. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

(03-26-2019 12:08 PM)T-Mac Wrote:  

(03-26-2019 11:21 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(03-26-2019 11:12 AM)T-Mac Wrote:  

(03-26-2019 08:31 AM)monarx Wrote:  

(03-26-2019 07:28 AM)T-Mac Wrote:  I think our offense will be very well rounded next year. Assuming Dickens and Ezikpe improve, we should have a much better post game. Between Wade, Green, and Kithcart, we have three guys who can get to the rim whenever they want. We'll also have Godwin, Green, Oliver, and Kithcart who can shoot 35-40% from beyond the arc. Teams likely won't have the option of shutting down 1-2 players and completely stopping our offense next year. We'll have 7-8 guys capable of scoring in double figures.

Not to be contrary, but we had those same guys this year. I expect to see some improvement with them, but the fact is we are losing our best two players and really our only two scorers. A lot of guys are going to have to step up. I think Godwin, Kithcart, X, Wade, Zip and Dickens can all take huge steps in the offseason, but its certainly not a slam dunk (no pun intended).

The younger guys obviously deferred to the Seniors this year. Multiple times in post game interviews Stith and/or Caver mentioned that ONLY one of them would have the ball to close out big games. I think the younger guys felt like they weren't permitted to go off even if they were hot. How many times did we see X take over a game in the last 8 minutes? Why did he wait? He deferred to Stith and Caver all game long. Once he realized they wouldn't or couldn't be "the man", X stepped up and closed the game out.

X was our best offensive player this year. He just wasn't our main focus. While my OP definitely requires a huge increase in opportunity for the young guys, it doesn't require that they increase their skill set hardly at all. Increasing opportunities is going to be easy. Caver and Stith took 52% of our total FGs this season. Stith and Caver were also two of our least efficient offensive players, as well. Granted, a lot of their inefficiency was due to everyone on the court knowing that one of the two of them was going to take almost every shot--leading to a lot of bad or contested shots.

Outside of X, I just don't see any of these guys standing out amongst the crowd. I think 6-7 of them will be very capable scorers. The overall depth of next year's team is exactly why I think they'll be as good or better than this year.

Least efficient players? Do what?

Here are our leaders in Player Efficiency Rating:

Ezikpe 21.3
Stith 19.0
Caver 18.8
Kithcart 15.4
Wade 13.1
Dickens 12.3
Green 10.8


Green has the talent and showed glimpses of being a very good offensive player. In no way, shape, or form was he anywhere close to our best offensive player.

3pt%
Green - 41%
Stith - 37%
Caver - 30%

2pt%
Green - 40%
Stith - 41%
Caver - 38%

2 point %:
Stith-44%
Green-39%
Caver-45%

In a discussion about FG%, you keep sneaking in things that aren't FGs to strengthen your point. When you take out FTs...

Stith had 487 FG points on 505 FG attempts (0.96 PPA)
Caver had 395 FG points on 514 FG attempts (0.77 PPA)
Green had 298 FG points on 309 FG attempts (0.96 PPA)

Just about every ODU guy who will play meaningful minutes next year converted higher than 1.00 PPA this season, for what it's worth.

(03-26-2019 12:29 PM)T-Mac Wrote:  In a discussion about FG%, you keep sneaking in things that aren't FGs to strengthen your point. When you take out FTs...

Stith had 487 FG points on 505 FG attempts (0.96 PPA)
Caver had 395 FG points on 514 FG attempts (0.77 PPA)
Green had 298 FG points on 309 FG attempts (0.96 PPA)

Why would you not include free throws? That is crucial when you are discussing efficiency.

And FWIW, your numbers should have Caver as 462 points on 514 attempts (.90)

Also, the numbers of the supporting players will likely decrease as they have to take more shots; including the tough shots Caver/Stith took.

Wonder how many fans from other CUSA teams are having this exact same conversation. Seems we always talk optimistically about how our guys might improve without considering many other teams will improve as well. WKU was very young this year. I don't really see our guys improving significantly more than the other teams players.

(03-26-2019 12:39 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(03-26-2019 12:29 PM)T-Mac Wrote:  In a discussion about FG%, you keep sneaking in things that aren't FGs to strengthen your point. When you take out FTs...

Stith had 487 FG points on 505 FG attempts (0.96 PPA)
Caver had 395 FG points on 514 FG attempts (0.77 PPA)
Green had 298 FG points on 309 FG attempts (0.96 PPA)

Why would you not include free throws? That is crucial when you are discussing efficiency.

And FWIW, your numbers should have Caver as 462 points on 514 attempts (.90)

Also, the numbers of the supporting players will likely decrease as they have to take more shots; including the tough shots Caver/Stith took.

If you want to parse out end of game intentional foul FTs, it might warrant consideration. However, Caver and Stith both padded their stats at the end of games on intentional fouls.

(03-26-2019 02:25 PM)T-Mac Wrote:  

(03-26-2019 12:39 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(03-26-2019 12:29 PM)T-Mac Wrote:  In a discussion about FG%, you keep sneaking in things that aren't FGs to strengthen your point. When you take out FTs...

Stith had 487 FG points on 505 FG attempts (0.96 PPA)
Caver had 395 FG points on 514 FG attempts (0.77 PPA)
Green had 298 FG points on 309 FG attempts (0.96 PPA)

Why would you not include free throws? That is crucial when you are discussing efficiency.

And FWIW, your numbers should have Caver as 462 points on 514 attempts (.90)

Also, the numbers of the supporting players will likely decrease as they have to take more shots; including the tough shots Caver/Stith took.

If you want to parse out end of game intentional foul FTs, it might warrant consideration. However, Caver and Stith both padded their stats at the end of games on intentional fouls.

Now you are jut grasping for straws.

Here is a VERY simple metric that evaluators use to measure a shooters abilities. They should be over 160 combined to be consider a top level offensive player when you add FT shooting%, 3pt shooting %, and 2 pt. FG%. So if BJ shoots 82% from the FT line he must shoot over 78% combined from the 3pt and and 2pt FG %.