(03-25-2019 01:41 PM)AllTideUp Wrote: (03-25-2019 11:25 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (03-25-2019 11:15 AM)Hokie4Skins Wrote: https://awfulannouncing.com/local-networ...nsion.html
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I suspect this was a rare good move by Scott and the PAC. ESPN was almost surely trying to take advantage of perceived panic in the PAC to strike quick and get a steal-deal that locks them up for decades.
At this point, wise of the PAC to let the current FOX/ESPN deal run its course and then negotiate a new deal in a few years.
I think that's highly doubtful.
What Larry Scott and company just did was guarantee that the PAC Networks will flounder for several more years and that the PAC will continue to fall further behind on the off chance they get lucky in a few years.
Yes, they will go to open market, and if they think they're going to get distribution for the PAC Networks without a partner like ESPN taking control then they are totally fooling themselves.
More to the point, I can understand why they might hope that a large tech giant is coming to save them, but what is the PAC 12 worth to a company like Amazon or Google? Yes, they have more cash than Disney and could afford to pay more...that doesn't mean it would be a wise investment for them because it's not their core business. Either way, the PAC 12's exposure would lag with partners like that carrying major chunks of rights. They don't seem to care about that though.
In this business, you can deal with ESPN, FOX, and now maybe Warner Media(Turner). CBS and NBC don't dive deep into college sports so I'm not really including them. Warner Media is a maybe just because we don't know for certain what their new approach will be.
So in a few years, they're still going to have to give up control of the PAC Networks if they want good distribution, but now they've lost a few years worth of money/exposure. What did they gain?
In a few years, they will go to open market right around the same time the Big Ten, Big 12, and the SEC's 1st tier will. The quality of PAC 12 money sports is not in a good place right now. Is the PAC more desirable than any of those other leagues?
The Big East rebuffed an offer from ESPN and decided to go to the open market. They found out no one really wanted their content for what ESPN was offering. That's an extreme example, but it is not far-fetched at all to conclude the PAC won't get a truly competitive offer in a few years.
I agree with you to a point especially about the network itself, but there is a big risk in taking the offer too
if the offer was just a straight extension of their existing deal (and lets say that ESPN also offered to pick up the Fox deal at the end of 6 years if Fox did not renew and ESPN would extend it the same) well doing the quick math
if the ESPN deal that averages $21.33 million per team per year scaled $1 million per year
well the first year of the deal would have been $15.33 million (about right looking at past PAC 12 payouts) and at the end of the deal it would be $26.33 million
so if they extended it 7 more years with that same scale factor (and IF ESPN was picking up the Fox deal if Fox or someone else did not make a better offer) the PAC 12 would be making $33.33 million in media rights (with NCAA credits, Rose Bowl, other bowls, and NCAA football playoff money in addition to the $33.33)
with the PAC 12 paying out $30.9 in FY 2017 when their media rights deal was 5 years in (started in 12/13 FY 2013) well that media rights deal would be paying $20.33 using the $1 million per year scale factor so that means other money was about $10.6 million
so if "other money" stays about the same that means in 2032 with a media rights deal paying $33.33 and "other money" still $10.6 the PAC 12 would be getting $43.93 million per team
while the Big 10 is about to pay $50 now and will have negotiated another new deal in 6 years from now
even if you thought ESPN could cram the PAC12n as successfully as the SECn SECn SECn and you added $5 million to that you are at $48.93 so in 14 years the PAC 12 would be making less than the Big 10 is about to make NOW
now those media deals do not scale exactly $1 million per team per year the conferences generally have them worked to try and scale a bit more when they are not getting Rose or Sugar or Orange Bowl money so the payments equal out more in those off years
and "other money" from the NCAA BB, Football Playoffs, Rose Bowl and other bowls might increase, but if that increases it will for the others as well so an increase in that does not help the PAC 12 make up ground
the only thing that would help them is if the PAC12n was making more than the BTN or SECn SECn SECn and that is doubtful
now if the PAC 12 could have negotiated a bigger scale after 2025 and for the 7 years after that they would have more to think about
but if the scaling of the agreements was the same and worse if ESPN gave no guarantee to pick up the Fox tier 2 then the PAC 12 pretty much had to turn that deal down
network payments increasing now would only slightly close the gap with others and in the future the others would be pulling away again....and really adding $5 million a year for the network is not realistic considering it does pay out some money now just not a lot