(03-25-2019 05:47 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 06:27 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 04:14 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Does $7 million a year sway Boise, Fresno, BYU, or San Diego State, to investigate a possible move to the AAC, and cause another round of movement?

Boise's special deal with the MWC might be good enough for them to pass on an AAC offer, but that same special deal might encourage Fresno and San Diego to move.

I'd say its evidence the MWC has officially lost its throne as best non power conference if it hadn't become obvious already by 2015 or so.

It's become CUSA of the west, too large and watered down. Like CUSA the MWC still has a few markets the P5 isn't dominant...Fresno, Reno, Boise, Albuquerque. Denver, SLC, Las Vegas bowl ect have all gone P5 though. CUSA has Huntington, Norfolk, Boca Raton.

The MWC had a better bowl season and Massey rating than AAC. Army 70 UH 14.


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Since when did Army join the MWC?

(03-25-2019 06:04 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 05:47 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 06:27 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 04:14 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Does $7 million a year sway Boise, Fresno, BYU, or San Diego State, to investigate a possible move to the AAC, and cause another round of movement?

Boise's special deal with the MWC might be good enough for them to pass on an AAC offer, but that same special deal might encourage Fresno and San Diego to move.

I'd say its evidence the MWC has officially lost its throne as best non power conference if it hadn't become obvious already by 2015 or so.

It's become CUSA of the west, too large and watered down. Like CUSA the MWC still has a few markets the P5 isn't dominant...Fresno, Reno, Boise, Albuquerque. Denver, SLC, Las Vegas bowl ect have all gone P5 though. CUSA has Huntington, Norfolk, Boca Raton.

The MWC had a better bowl season and Massey rating than AAC. Army 70 UH 14.


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Since when did Army join the MWC?

They did not of course. Just like to illustrate how the flagship of a P6 performed in their bowl.


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(03-25-2019 06:12 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 06:04 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 05:47 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 06:27 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 04:14 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Does $7 million a year sway Boise, Fresno, BYU, or San Diego State, to investigate a possible move to the AAC, and cause another round of movement?

Boise's special deal with the MWC might be good enough for them to pass on an AAC offer, but that same special deal might encourage Fresno and San Diego to move.

I'd say its evidence the MWC has officially lost its throne as best non power conference if it hadn't become obvious already by 2015 or so.

It's become CUSA of the west, too large and watered down. Like CUSA the MWC still has a few markets the P5 isn't dominant...Fresno, Reno, Boise, Albuquerque. Denver, SLC, Las Vegas bowl ect have all gone P5 though. CUSA has Huntington, Norfolk, Boca Raton.

The MWC had a better bowl season and Massey rating than AAC. Army 70 UH 14.


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Since when did Army join the MWC?

They did not of course. Just like to illustrate how the flagship of a P6 performed in their bowl.


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I think it puts pressure on the MWC to get a deal to try and keep up with the AAC. Not sure that is going to happen for them. Don't see the AAC considering or needing any additions to the conference with their new media deal even if an MWC team wanted to bolt.

The MWC isn't going to get anywhere near what the AAC got. For one, they are deeper. Two, they have better markets. Three, the MWC really only has value in the late night slot.

I just don't see any evidence the MWC will get a huge raise, such as 4 or 5M. I'd guess they would get around 2M per, which would be a significant raise from what they currently have. We'll see.

I don't think the MWC is destabilized at all. The AAC has no interest in any MWC schools nor does any P5 conf. They like the AAC are stable because there is now where for any one to go. I expect they find a new TV deal in the 1.5 to 2.5 mil range.

(03-25-2019 09:36 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  I just don't see any evidence the MWC will get a huge raise, such as 4 or 5M. I'd guess they would get around 2M per, which would be a significant raise from what they currently have. We'll see.

Agreed.

The Mountain West doesn’t really have much fat to trim besides San Jose State, and even they sort of add something. If you look at the rest of the line-up, each institution contributes something to either sports or academic prestige. The basketball side has been MASSIVELY underperforming considering UNLV and New Mexico should be at the top of the league every year, fighting for position in the top 25.

As long as Utah State is in the conference, there will be no BYU. USU has been performing quite well in both major sports so I see no reason for the MWC to pull a Mountain West and split to create a new 8 team Mountain West with BYU. Ha ha!

Utah State has no bearing on BYU. It's like saying Texas Tech is blocking SMU from the Big 12.

BYU would only come back to the MWC as a non-football member and probably only if Gonzaga leads the way. BYU is really angling for a B12 invite. If you look at their football schedules you see they are far above a typical G5 (* = home game, + = neutral site, Las Vegas)

2020: Utah, Michigan St*, Arizona St, Minnesota, Missouri*, Stanford plus Utah St*, Boise State, San Diego St* and Houston*
2021: Arizona+, Utah*, Arizona St*, Washington St, Virginia*, USC plus Utah St, Boise St* and South Florida*
2022: Utah, Baylor*, Oregon, Arkansas*, Stanford plus Utah St*, Boise St and Wyoming*
2023: Tennessee*, Virginia, Utah*, Arkansas, USC, Stanford* plus Boise St*, UNLV* and Houston

Their schedule is too incomplete after that, partly because it's too far out and partly because they want 2024 and 2025 open for changing conference. (Note, Utah State contract is through 2022, but is expected to be renewed for 2023 onward)

That is as solid a package as anyone could to take to ESPN for a contract. I would expect they will come in for at least as much as the American on a per school basis, probably higher given the number of P5 opponents (2019 has USC, Utah, Washington and Boise St as home games), as I count with Houston, USF, SDSU and Boise St 20 high value home games in the next 5 years, plus that neutral site in the new Las Vegas stadium against Arizona.

The issue for BYU is having the right coaching staff and recruiting cycle, plus taking care of the honor code and T9 enforcement issues (these for B12) to show they belong in P5. The MWC has nothing to offer BYU. BYU schedule P5 schools and then fills out their schedule with the MWC schools they want, notably Boise State and Utah State more or less permanent rivals (along with Utah again). And the American doesn't offer them anything either, even less since there is no Basketball home.

The MWC could offer BYU Basketball membership and let them do their own thing in Football. But honestly I see no reason for BYU to do anything with conference alignment in the next few years with Gonzaga staying in the WCC and the B12 2025 realignment looming.

I just don't see where any pressure would be coming on the MWC. Geography protects them from raiding by any non-P5 conference. The money is not enough to offset the hassle of sending Olympic Sports to a minor league like the Big West and incurring travel costs that offset much of a small financial gain (we are talking what, $3-4M at most, more like $2-3M per year, but subtract $1M or more for loss of revenue in Olympics plus increased travel costs for Football and loss of regional rivals effecting gate).

Geography is a killer to the idea of a coast to coast 2nd level conference. It's even a non starter for a 1st level power conference.

(03-25-2019 06:12 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 06:04 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 05:47 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 06:27 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 04:14 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Does $7 million a year sway Boise, Fresno, BYU, or San Diego State, to investigate a possible move to the AAC, and cause another round of movement?

Boise's special deal with the MWC might be good enough for them to pass on an AAC offer, but that same special deal might encourage Fresno and San Diego to move.

I'd say its evidence the MWC has officially lost its throne as best non power conference if it hadn't become obvious already by 2015 or so.

It's become CUSA of the west, too large and watered down. Like CUSA the MWC still has a few markets the P5 isn't dominant...Fresno, Reno, Boise, Albuquerque. Denver, SLC, Las Vegas bowl ect have all gone P5 though. CUSA has Huntington, Norfolk, Boca Raton.

The MWC had a better bowl season and Massey rating than AAC. Army 70 UH 14.


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Since when did Army join the MWC?

They did not of course. Just like to illustrate how the flagship of a P6 performed in their bowl.


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A performance that got the Houston coach fired.

(03-26-2019 01:57 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Utah State has no bearing on BYU. It's like saying Texas Tech is blocking SMU from the Big 12.

Actually, that’s nothing like what you’re talking about. BYU will not be in the same conference as Utah State, period, end of story. Utah State won’t block them, but BYU would never want to be in the MWC while Utah is in the Pac, unless there is no Utah State, maybe.

SMU would join the Big XII in a heartbeat if they were offered.

(03-26-2019 01:57 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Utah State has no bearing on BYU. It's like saying Texas Tech is blocking SMU from the Big 12.

BYU would only come back to the MWC as a non-football member and probably only if Gonzaga leads the way. BYU is really angling for a B12 invite. If you look at their football schedules you see they are far above a typical G5 (* = home game, + = neutral site, Las Vegas)

2020: Utah, Michigan St*, Arizona St, Minnesota, Missouri*, Stanford plus Utah St*, Boise State, San Diego St* and Houston*
2021: Arizona+, Utah*, Arizona St*, Washington St, Virginia*, USC plus Utah St, Boise St* and South Florida*
2022: Utah, Baylor*, Oregon, Arkansas*, Stanford plus Utah St*, Boise St and Wyoming*
2023: Tennessee*, Virginia, Utah*, Arkansas, USC, Stanford* plus Boise St*, UNLV* and Houston

Their schedule is too incomplete after that, partly because it's too far out and partly because they want 2024 and 2025 open for changing conference. (Note, Utah State contract is through 2022, but is expected to be renewed for 2023 onward)

That is as solid a package as anyone could to take to ESPN for a contract. I would expect they will come in for at least as much as the American on a per school basis, probably higher given the number of P5 opponents (2019 has USC, Utah, Washington and Boise St as home games), as I count with Houston, USF, SDSU and Boise St 20 high value home games in the next 5 years, plus that neutral site in the new Las Vegas stadium against Arizona.

The issue for BYU is having the right coaching staff and recruiting cycle, plus taking care of the honor code and T9 enforcement issues (these for B12) to show they belong in P5. The MWC has nothing to offer BYU. BYU schedule P5 schools and then fills out their schedule with the MWC schools they want, notably Boise State and Utah State more or less permanent rivals (along with Utah again). And the American doesn't offer them anything either, even less since there is no Basketball home.

The MWC could offer BYU Basketball membership and let them do their own thing in Football. But honestly I see no reason for BYU to do anything with conference alignment in the next few years with Gonzaga staying in the WCC and the B12 2025 realignment looming.

I just don't see where any pressure would be coming on the MWC. Geography protects them from raiding by any non-P5 conference. The money is not enough to offset the hassle of sending Olympic Sports to a minor league like the Big West and incurring travel costs that offset much of a small financial gain (we are talking what, $3-4M at most, more like $2-3M per year, but subtract $1M or more for loss of revenue in Olympics plus increased travel costs for Football and loss of regional rivals effecting gate).

Geography is a killer to the idea of a coast to coast 2nd level conference. It's even a non starter for a 1st level power conference.

MWC would never let BYU in without football.. to do so, would totally moronic. Let them go to AAC, they would fit in well there as they think they are a power school also.


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(03-25-2019 06:12 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 06:04 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 05:47 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 06:27 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 04:14 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Does $7 million a year sway Boise, Fresno, BYU, or San Diego State, to investigate a possible move to the AAC, and cause another round of movement?

Boise's special deal with the MWC might be good enough for them to pass on an AAC offer, but that same special deal might encourage Fresno and San Diego to move.

I'd say its evidence the MWC has officially lost its throne as best non power conference if it hadn't become obvious already by 2015 or so.

It's become CUSA of the west, too large and watered down. Like CUSA the MWC still has a few markets the P5 isn't dominant...Fresno, Reno, Boise, Albuquerque. Denver, SLC, Las Vegas bowl ect have all gone P5 though. CUSA has Huntington, Norfolk, Boca Raton.

The MWC had a better bowl season and Massey rating than AAC. Army 70 UH 14.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Since when did Army join the MWC?

They did not of course. Just like to illustrate how the flagship of a P6 performed in their bowl.


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Houston didn't even win their division. Should we be pointing out that mighty flagship Hawaii got embarrassed by Louisiana Tech?

(03-25-2019 06:12 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 06:04 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 05:47 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 06:27 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 04:14 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Does $7 million a year sway Boise, Fresno, BYU, or San Diego State, to investigate a possible move to the AAC, and cause another round of movement?

Boise's special deal with the MWC might be good enough for them to pass on an AAC offer, but that same special deal might encourage Fresno and San Diego to move.

I'd say its evidence the MWC has officially lost its throne as best non power conference if it hadn't become obvious already by 2015 or so.

It's become CUSA of the west, too large and watered down. Like CUSA the MWC still has a few markets the P5 isn't dominant...Fresno, Reno, Boise, Albuquerque. Denver, SLC, Las Vegas bowl ect have all gone P5 though. CUSA has Huntington, Norfolk, Boca Raton.

The MWC had a better bowl season and Massey rating than AAC. Army 70 UH 14.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Since when did Army join the MWC?

They did not of course. Just like to illustrate how the flagship of a P6 performed in their bowl.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

The AAC does not have a flagship. It has a couple weak sisters, but no master. This is possible both a weakness and a plus for the conference.

(03-27-2019 07:35 AM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 06:12 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 06:04 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 05:47 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 06:27 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  I'd say its evidence the MWC has officially lost its throne as best non power conference if it hadn't become obvious already by 2015 or so.

It's become CUSA of the west, too large and watered down. Like CUSA the MWC still has a few markets the P5 isn't dominant...Fresno, Reno, Boise, Albuquerque. Denver, SLC, Las Vegas bowl ect have all gone P5 though. CUSA has Huntington, Norfolk, Boca Raton.

The MWC had a better bowl season and Massey rating than AAC. Army 70 UH 14.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Since when did Army join the MWC?

They did not of course. Just like to illustrate how the flagship of a P6 performed in their bowl.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

The AAC does not have a flagship. It has a couple weak sisters, but no master. This is possible both a weakness and a plus for the conference.

Yeah, BEFORE bowls, Houston was the fifth-highest-rated AAC team.

(03-25-2019 08:04 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The MWC isn't going to get anywhere near what the AAC got. For one, they are deeper. Two, they have better markets. Three, the MWC really only has value in the late night slot.

There is no question that the MWC is not going to get what the AAC is getting. They play in different time zones, in different markets. If you live in the east, you are not watching many MWC games. If you live in the West, you are not watching many AAC games.

There is value in the "late night slot" out west because that is prime time in the west. In 2018, the MWC had 44 football games televised nationally, 22 on the ESPN family of channels and 22 on the CBS Sports Network. The quality of the basketball in the conference is down, with only two bids in each of the past two seasons. But it was a five bid conference in 2013, which was one more bid than the ACC got that year.

For non-conference home football games, the MWC does as good a job as the AAC in scheduling quality OOC games at home. These are games that will get nationally televised, as opposed to a conference game. For 2020, I listed games at home against P5 schools, academy schools and BYU. I did not list games against other G5 schools or FCS schools:

MWC 2020 OOC Home Games
Navy at Air Force
Florida State at Boise State
BYU at Boise State
Colorado at Colorado State
Washington State at Utah State
Utah at Wyoming
UCLA at Hawaii
UCLA at San Diego State
Army at San Jose State
Cal at UNLV
Arizona State at UNLV

AAC 2020 OOC Home Games
Rutgers at Temple
North Carolina at UCF
Indiana at UConn
Notre Dame at Navy
Army at Tulane

The MWC and Pac-12 schedule a number of games against each other, with geography being the prime reason for that. In the end, they should get $3-4 million per school from their next TV deal, with half the years that the AAC committed to. The MWC should be somewhere between the AAC and the other three G5 conferences.

(03-27-2019 05:28 PM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(03-25-2019 08:04 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The MWC isn't going to get anywhere near what the AAC got. For one, they are deeper. Two, they have better markets. Three, the MWC really only has value in the late night slot.

There is no question that the MWC is not going to get what the AAC is getting. They play in different time zones, in different markets. If you live in the east, you are not watching many MWC games. If you live in the West, you are not watching many AAC games.

There is value in the "late night slot" out west because that is prime time in the west. In 2018, the MWC had 44 football games televised nationally, 22 on the ESPN family of channels and 22 on the CBS Sports Network. The quality of the basketball in the conference is down, with only two bids in each of the past two seasons. But it was a five bid conference in 2013, which was one more bid than the ACC got that year.

For non-conference home football games, the MWC does as good a job as the AAC in scheduling quality OOC games at home. These are games that will get nationally televised, as opposed to a conference game. For 2020, I listed games at home against P5 schools, academy schools and BYU. I did not list games against other G5 schools or FCS schools:

MWC 2020 OOC Home Games
Navy at Air Force
Florida State at Boise State
BYU at Boise State
Colorado at Colorado State
Washington State at Utah State
Utah at Wyoming
UCLA at Hawaii
UCLA at San Diego State
Army at San Jose State
Cal at UNLV
Arizona State at UNLV

AAC 2020 OOC Home Games
Rutgers at Temple
North Carolina at UCF
Indiana at UConn
Notre Dame at Navy
Army at Tulane

The MWC and Pac-12 schedule a number of games against each other, with geography being the prime reason for that. In the end, they should get $3-4 million per school from their next TV deal, with half the years that the AAC committed to. The MWC should be somewhere between the AAC and the other three G5 conferences.

Yep pretty much what I think as well. MWC will get 4ish through 2027-2028 and everyone will be happy.

So the American goes from 28 guaranteed football games on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 & ESPNU to 40 guaranteed games.

Don't see much room for the ESPN to expand its linear coverage of the MWC, which is 22 games per year.


.

(03-27-2019 09:12 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  So the American goes from 28 guaranteed football games on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 & ESPNU to 40 guaranteed games.

Don't see much room for the ESPN to expand its linear coverage of the MWC, which is 22 games per year.


.

Which is good as everyone out west hates the late starts.


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(03-27-2019 09:12 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  So the American goes from 28 guaranteed football games on ABC, ESPN, ESPN2 & ESPNU to 40 guaranteed games.

Don't see much room for the ESPN to expand its linear coverage of the MWC, which is 22 games per year.


.

I think that this may hint that the MW will drop ESPN except for the CCG.
BSU home football games may be the only games shown on ESPN along with BYU home games.