(03-24-2019 06:02 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 05:49 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 05:31 PM)usffan Wrote:  If we're being completely honest, the only school that I could see at least contemplate a move would be BYU, mostly because it would put them back into play for the "highest rated champion of a G5 conference" NY6 bid (unless Holmoe is a DavidSt disciple who refuses to recognize that BYU isn't eligible for that slot). I don't think any MWC school would be interested in being a full AAC member because of the travel costs, and I also don't see them willing to find another conference to park their other sports.

USFFan

PS - I also know that many BYU fans embrace their independent status, even though it doesn't provide them with great bowl access...

The only reason they “embrace” it is because they have to pretend they have a good P5 lineup on their schedule. They’ll keep the charade as long as they can because their biggest rival is in the Pac-12 which even on a mediocre season, they can still go to the Sun or Holiday bowls. It’s the reason they won’t humiliate themselves to go back to the MWC or even consider the AAC.

If you’re a BYU fan and your best friend is a Utah fan, what would you rather say?

“We have Cincinnati, UCF, Tulsa, Memphis, Temple, SMU, and UConn on the schedule” or

“We have Wisconsin, Texas, Tennessee, Washington, USC on the schedule”

BYU has schedules for many years to come that are easily better than they would have in the MWC or AAC

https://fbschedules.com/ncaa/byu/

Yeah, nothing says success like Idaho State in November.


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(03-24-2019 09:58 PM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 09:31 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 06:05 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 05:57 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 05:44 PM)usffan Wrote:  

Great - congratulations on being in the top 2 options in states like Idaho, Wyoming, New Mexico and Hawaii. Even if 1% of those 3 million+ people who moved to Texas in the last 8 years became Houston or SMU fans, that's still more than if 100% of the people who moved to Wyoming or New Mexico did. And if none of the "younger generation" are into college sports, then doesn't that defeat the purpose of the whole "growing population" argument? Or are you somehow thinking that the retirees moving in are going to adopt the local team. As somebody who lives in Florida and sees Rays games dominated by Yankees and Red Sox fans, they're not.

USFFan

You left two of the fastest growing states, Nevada and Colorado. Very convenient.

Let me see, if I’m from Michigan and graduated from MSU and I move to Albuquerque which doesn’t offer any pro sports and it’s far from P5 schools, I might somehow follow the Lobos since it’s the only game in town. But if I move to Dallas, I have way too many options for entertainment not to mention if I want P5 football, TCU is in the same metro area and Austin, College Station and Norman are 3 hours away. Apples to oranges.

You do like to pick and choose things to try to make a point. Colorado (which I included in my original post about this) has grown by the 8th most since the last census (+666,240). But they're also home to the Broncos, Rockies, Nuggets and Avalanche. If you're going to use moving to an area with pro teams as a knock on Dallas, it's just as big of a knock on Colorado. Nevada also grew by 333,701 in the last near-decade. They also have the Golden Knights and (soon) the Raiders. Plus, have you ever been to either Vegas or Reno? The sports fans are in the sports books rooting for their own teams (or, in reality, on whoever they've bet on).

In reality, IF population growth improves things, the difference between the improvement seen by MWC schools and AAC schools will not somehow dramatically favor the MWC.

USFFan

You’re still didn’t answer my question. I’ll make it simpler. What type of school would have a better chance to capture a transplant? One where it’s the only game in town or one where it competes with multiple entertainment options? The MWC has multiple schools that fit the profile on the former. The AAC has more that fit the latter.

Only game in town in Laramie or Reno won't even sell out a high school football game.

I'd rather take a town that doesn't have a lot of transplants, like Memphis or Cincinnati or Chicago. Sure the college isn't the only game in town, but everyone will root for the school when they're doing well. The bandwagon transforms 9 million people into Loyola fans and it makes Cincinnati fans outnumber Florida fans 2 to 1 at the Sugar Bowl.

Nice try in picking Reno and Laramie and leaving Fresno, Boise, Honolulu and Albuquerque out. Las Vegas is getting an NFL team so they’re no longer on that list and San Diego lost the Chargers so they’re taking Vegas spot.

Once again, I’m going to ask the same question. If you’re a transplant, what are you more than likely to do? Follow a G5 since it’s the only game in town or follow a G5 with multiple professional and P5 teams to choose from? I’ll tell you the answer: it’s the former rather than the latter. Still, it’s not guaranteed that G5 will get Joe and Mary Doe who just moved there as fans. They usually bring their allegiances with them but more than likely they’d attend a Boise State or New Mexico game than a South Florida or Temple game given the circumstances.

I am not a fan of kicking out programs, but I would be curious what a conference like this would get:

AAC West:
Boise State (football only, WAC for other sports)
Air Force (football only, WAC for other sports)
SMU
Houston
Tulsa
Memphis
Cincinnati

AAC East:
USF
UCF
East Carolina
Army (football only, Patriot League for other sports)
Navy (football only, Patriot League for other sports)
Temple
UCONN

Other Sports:

Wichita State Shockers
Saint Louis Billikens

Tulane I feel is a much better fit for C-USA or as independent (could play NMSU, Liberty, UMass, UL-Lafeyette, UL-Monroe, FCS I-AA, BYU, LSU/Notre Dame on yearly basis for core schedule of 7-8 games). AAC adds Saint Louis for other sports. Has good rivalry games with UCF-USF, Army-Navy, Army-Air Force, Navy-Air Force, SMU-Houston, UCONN-UCF (Civil conFLiCT). Some decent potential in both divisions.

(03-24-2019 04:14 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Does $7 million a year sway Boise, Fresno, BYU, or San Diego State, to investigate a possible move to the AAC, and cause another round of movement?

Boise's special deal with the MWC might be good enough for them to pass on an AAC offer, but that same special deal might encourage Fresno and San Diego to move.

I'd say its evidence the MWC has officially lost its throne as best non power conference if it hadn't become obvious already by 2015 or so.

It's become CUSA of the west, too large and watered down. Like CUSA the MWC still has a few markets the P5 isn't dominant...Fresno, Reno, Boise, Albuquerque. Denver, SLC, Las Vegas bowl ect have all gone P5 though. CUSA has Huntington, Norfolk, Boca Raton.

The American pulling down $40-60M more per year in TV money means that over time, American coaching salaries will be better than the MWC. American facilities will be better.

It's a competitive advantage.

As for the American kicking out schools, it's not going to happen. Navy likes playing in a division with private schools, and the American likes having Navy.

For those dreaming about a best of American + BYU + select MWC schools, the only place that can happen is under the umbrella of a decimated Big 12.

(03-24-2019 04:58 PM)GTFletch Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 04:14 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Does $7 million a year sway Boise, Fresno, BYU, or San Diego State, to investigate a possible move to the AAC, and cause another round of movement?

Boise's special deal with the MWC might be good enough for them to pass on an AAC offer, but that same special deal might encourage Fresno and San Diego to move.

What is the current value of BYU's deal with ESPN, and would they make more as a member of the AAC?

How much more would the AAC media contract be worth if they expanded to 14 teams, with some combination of Boise, BYU, Fresno, or San Diego?

Would the AAC even be interested in adding some combination of those schools?

If the MWC lost a team or two, what would they do?

I'm dubious a Mountain West school would leave for the American. The Big 12, yes; the American, NO

It’s a tough one, because not only do I think it could cause someone to reconsider a move, what happens should the AAC lose a few members in the next decade if the Big XII folds, and something “better” than either the AAC and MWC emerges to replace the former major? Because, all bets are off when it hits the fan and places get gutted. I doubt either conference is really stable...

I just think there are too many variables at play here. Schools like Houston, UConn, Cincy, and UCF will be working ther hardest for inclusion into any major who takes them. If the money is still there for a backfill or two, why wouldn’t the MWC lose a school, you know?

(03-24-2019 04:50 PM)MWC Tex Wrote:  No it won’t destabilize the MW.
1. We don’t know how much the new TV deal for the MW will be in a month or so.
2. Unlike the AAC, the MW is made of flagship and land grant colleges. They are the first or second college in their states the population pays attention to.
As the population grows so will the MW.

No impact on MWC stability because:

1) The money isn't good enough to cause MW teams to overcome the geography barrier to join the AAC, and ...

2) Adding any MW teams would just dilute the payments AAC teams get, would just be more mouths to feed.

As Attackcoog said, the time for MW schools to join would have been before the AAC deal was negotiated, if say a consultant had said "if you add SDSU and Boise your payout would go up by $1m per school per year" or something.

(03-24-2019 05:11 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 05:03 PM)XLance Wrote:  The AAC will be able to pick up a few schools from the remnants of the Big 12, they won't need to go any further west.

Big 12 exit fees mean the Big 12 will stay intact and add schools IF (and a pretty big IF) any teams leave the Big 12

THIS^^^^^^^^^^^

(03-25-2019 09:07 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  No impact on MWC stability because:

1) The money isn't good enough to cause MW teams to overcome the geography barrier to join the AAC, and ...

2) Adding any MW teams would just dilute the payments AAC teams get, would just be more mouths to feed.

As Attackcoog said, the time for MW schools to join would have been before the AAC deal was negotiated, if say a consultant had said "if you add SDSU and Boise your payout would go up by $1m per school per year" or something.

I wouldn't completely rule out that this wasn't already said at the meeting. There may be an agreement in place for small expansion for select schools. If you are BSU/SDSU you are probably waiting until after the MWC negotiations to decide your future.

That being said, if we don't hear something before football season, I don't think anything happens until P5 expansion.

(03-24-2019 04:14 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Does $7 million a year sway Boise, Fresno, BYU, or San Diego State, to investigate a possible move to the AAC, and cause another round of movement?

Boise's special deal with the MWC might be good enough for them to pass on an AAC offer, but that same special deal might encourage Fresno and San Diego to move.

What is the current value of BYU's deal with ESPN, and would they make more as a member of the AAC?

How much more would the AAC media contract be worth if they expanded to 14 teams, with some combination of Boise, BYU, Fresno, or San Diego?

Would the AAC even be interested in adding some combination of those schools?

If the MWC lost a team or two, what would they do?

If the MW lost 1 team they would replace with NMSU most likely. If they lost 2, then probably they stay at 10/9 configuration. Or if they feel that 12 is a better configuration, NMSU and UTEP would be added.

(03-24-2019 11:46 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  Nice try in picking Reno and Laramie and leaving Fresno, Boise, Honolulu and Albuquerque out. Las Vegas is getting an NFL team so they’re no longer on that list and San Diego lost the Chargers so they’re taking Vegas spot.

Once again, I’m going to ask the same question. If you’re a transplant, what are you more than likely to do? Follow a G5 since it’s the only game in town or follow a G5 with multiple professional and P5 teams to choose from? I’ll tell you the answer: it’s the former rather than the latter. Still, it’s not guaranteed that G5 will get Joe and Mary Doe who just moved there as fans. They usually bring their allegiances with them but more than likely they’d attend a Boise State or New Mexico game than a South Florida or Temple game given the circumstances.

JFC, you like to beat on minor points. I'll tell you what - yes, I agree that "a transplant moving to a city where the G5 school is the only game in town is more likely to follow that team than if that same transplant moved to a city with multiple professional teams in place." What I will NOT agree to is that that will have much of an impact in distinguishing between the AAC and the MWC. The places you're talking about (Fresno, Boise, Honolulu and Albuquerque) grew by ~32,000, ~21,000, ~13,000 and ~13,000, respectively since the last census (https://www.biggestuscities.com/). When compared with Houston (~213,000), Dallas (~150,000), Philadelphia (~54,000), Tampa (~50,000) and Orlando (~42,000) in that same time frame, I would argue that getting a larger share of a smaller number is, at best, negligible.

USFFan

(03-24-2019 09:11 PM)Wolfman Wrote:  The math doesn't work. To get the existing 12 AAC teams a $1 million increase a new team would have to be worth $20 million/year. (13 teams at $8 million/year). There is no MW team that fits that category.

It isn't worth expanding for $1 million. $2-3 million would be more desirable.

ESPN currently pays the MWC $18M per year. The main value comes from Boise State and the 10pm ET time slot - half of which are Boise games. Let's say the current value of that content is now worth about $30M.

ESPN could encourage Boise State and SDSU to move to the AAC. 2 schools. ESPN pays the AAC the $30M and completely spurns the MWC leftovers. Doesn't need them. With Boise and SDSU, ESPN gets 12 games of 10pm ET inventory.

The AAC adds $30M. $8M+ per school. Modest raise for everyone, but added exposure of 12 games of inventory.

(03-25-2019 10:35 AM)YNot Wrote:  ESPN currently pays the MWC $18M per year.

No they don't.

CBSSN pays them $6M. ESPN pays them $7M

They distribute $13M in total TV money. Check the Form 990.

(03-24-2019 04:14 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Does $7 million a year sway Boise, Fresno, BYU, or San Diego State, to investigate a possible move to the AAC, and cause another round of movement?

Boise's special deal with the MWC might be good enough for them to pass on an AAC offer, but that same special deal might encourage Fresno and San Diego to move.

What is the current value of BYU's deal with ESPN, and would they make more as a member of the AAC?

How much more would the AAC media contract be worth if they expanded to 14 teams, with some combination of Boise, BYU, Fresno, or San Diego?

Would the AAC even be interested in adding some combination of those schools?

If the MWC lost a team or two, what would they do?

No. Been there, done that. Boise State and SDSU flirted with that before. Leaving the MWC for the AAC would be for football only. That means an exit fee from the MWC, an entry fee to the AAC and an entry fee to the WAC or Big West for Olympic sports.

For Boise State, it could effect recruiting in California. They get half of their roster from California. From a financial standpoint, Boise State made a profit from football of $8.6 million in 2017-2018. They would obviously like to make more money from football, but a move to the AAC is not worth the hassle.

SDSU football is not good enough for ESPN to add additional money to the new deal and SDSU does not want their basketball program in the Big West. I don't even know how Fresno State got into this discussion. BYU has a nice deal with ESPN and as long as they have that, they are not moving for another G5 conference.

Oh, and the AAC is a G5 conference. The AAC TV revenue has improved, but their college football playoff revenue will not change and additional teams are just more mouths to feed. So it is not in the interest of the AAC to pursue this ridiculous idea.

I think the AAC value deal will help the MWC in their negotiations and help push them to $3-4ish million per team per year.

Which will satisfy the members of the MWC

No, it won't destabilize MWC. The AAC and MWC don't overlap, for one, and I am not sure there are any MWC programs the AAC wants. The AAC has repeatedly said they are not looking to expand. Unless ESPN was willing to tear up contract and add 2 schools at 7 mil more each, I just don't see it happening.

(03-24-2019 11:43 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 06:02 PM)TodgeRodge Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 05:49 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 05:31 PM)usffan Wrote:  If we're being completely honest, the only school that I could see at least contemplate a move would be BYU, mostly because it would put them back into play for the "highest rated champion of a G5 conference" NY6 bid (unless Holmoe is a DavidSt disciple who refuses to recognize that BYU isn't eligible for that slot). I don't think any MWC school would be interested in being a full AAC member because of the travel costs, and I also don't see them willing to find another conference to park their other sports.

USFFan

PS - I also know that many BYU fans embrace their independent status, even though it doesn't provide them with great bowl access...

The only reason they “embrace” it is because they have to pretend they have a good P5 lineup on their schedule. They’ll keep the charade as long as they can because their biggest rival is in the Pac-12 which even on a mediocre season, they can still go to the Sun or Holiday bowls. It’s the reason they won’t humiliate themselves to go back to the MWC or even consider the AAC.

If you’re a BYU fan and your best friend is a Utah fan, what would you rather say?

“We have Cincinnati, UCF, Tulsa, Memphis, Temple, SMU, and UConn on the schedule” or

“We have Wisconsin, Texas, Tennessee, Washington, USC on the schedule”

BYU has schedules for many years to come that are easily better than they would have in the MWC or AAC

https://fbschedules.com/ncaa/byu/

Yeah, nothing says success like Idaho State in November.


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yea because that one game is the whole schedule Vs having these games too

08/29 - Utah
09/07 - at Tennessee
09/14 - USC
09/21 - Washington

10/12 - at USF
10/19 - Boise State
11/02 - at Utah State

11/30 - at San Diego State

(03-25-2019 06:27 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 04:14 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Does $7 million a year sway Boise, Fresno, BYU, or San Diego State, to investigate a possible move to the AAC, and cause another round of movement?

Boise's special deal with the MWC might be good enough for them to pass on an AAC offer, but that same special deal might encourage Fresno and San Diego to move.

I'd say its evidence the MWC has officially lost its throne as best non power conference if it hadn't become obvious already by 2015 or so.

It's become CUSA of the west, too large and watered down. Like CUSA the MWC still has a few markets the P5 isn't dominant...Fresno, Reno, Boise, Albuquerque. Denver, SLC, Las Vegas bowl ect have all gone P5 though. CUSA has Huntington, Norfolk, Boca Raton.

The MWC had a better bowl season and Massey rating than AAC. Army 70 UH 14.


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(03-25-2019 06:27 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 04:14 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  Does $7 million a year sway Boise, Fresno, BYU, or San Diego State, to investigate a possible move to the AAC, and cause another round of movement?

Boise's special deal with the MWC might be good enough for them to pass on an AAC offer, but that same special deal might encourage Fresno and San Diego to move.

I'd say its evidence the MWC has officially lost its throne as best non power conference if it hadn't become obvious already by 2015 or so.

It's become CUSA of the west, too large and watered down. Like CUSA the MWC still has a few markets the P5 isn't dominant...Fresno, Reno, Boise, Albuquerque. Denver, SLC, Las Vegas bowl ect have all gone P5 though. CUSA has Huntington, Norfolk, Boca Raton.

FWIW, the MWC was the official CFP top G5 football conference this past season, the AAC was second.

Over the past 5 seasons, the MWC has been the #1 G5 football conference twice and #2 three times. The AAC has been #1 three times, #2 once, and #3 once. That's pretty close.