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Memphis could still make the NCAAs
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Julian Offline
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Post: #1
MyBB Memphis could still make the NCAAs
According to Team Rankings, Memphis has a 79% chance of making in the NCAA tournament as a 12 seed. Memphis is #4 in AAC.
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2019 09:36 AM by Julian.)
03-17-2019 09:34 AM
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UOFMGLENN Offline
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
(03-17-2019 09:34 AM)Julian Wrote:  According to Team Rankings, Memphis has a 79% chance of making in the NCAA tournament as a 12 seed. Memphis is #4 in AAC.
I wish this were true but I don't feel good about it.
03-17-2019 09:38 AM
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Julian Offline
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
(03-17-2019 09:38 AM)UOFMGLENN Wrote:  
(03-17-2019 09:34 AM)Julian Wrote:  According to Team Rankings, Memphis has a 79% chance of making in the NCAA tournament as a 12 seed. Memphis is #4 in AAC.
I wish this were true but I don't feel good about it.

Thank Cincinnati for beating Wichita State
03-17-2019 09:45 AM
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macgar32 Offline
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
Eh...

Essentially every metric has us ahead of Temple.

The thing everyone seems to be focusing on are individual games though.

Quad 1 wins and the like...If the committee is going to focus on Quad 1 wins that is the only thing that Temple has on us...Well that and finishing ahead of us in conference.
03-17-2019 09:48 AM
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tkgrrett Offline
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
Zero chance, Oregon beating Washington last night basically guarantees 3 for the pac-12, VCU loss means 2 for the A10, 2 for the WCC with Gonzaga losing, ACC will get 8, Big 12 gets 5 most likely, big East gets at least 3, at least 6 for the Big 10, 3 ahead of us in the AAC, and likely 7 for SEC.

That's 39 for multi-bid conferences, then add in another 23 autobids for one-bid conference to get to 62. That leaves 6 spots with TCU, Belmont, Ohio St, Indiana, St Johns, Temple, UNC-Greensboro, Furman, Alabama, Georgetown, Clemson, etc. All waiting with us. We needed the A10, Pac-12 and WCC to play out better
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2019 10:16 AM by tkgrrett.)
03-17-2019 10:15 AM
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dwash Offline
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
Honestly, do we deserve a tourney spot? Didnt get the job done in too many big games.
(This post was last modified: 03-17-2019 10:26 AM by dwash.)
03-17-2019 10:25 AM
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80sTiger Offline
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Memphis could still make the NCAAs
I’d be shocked if we did


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03-17-2019 10:34 AM
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Tigerspartan Offline
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
Possible. Extremely unlikely. It’s us or temple. We are in the range that it could be possible. Every year there are a couple “shocker” at large bids. Most brackets have us in the 5th team out range. But it would take the commitee convincing themselves us over temple . You can argue it from both sides. We played better down the stretch, reaching the semis and with a higher net ranking. Temple lost to a Wichita state team we beat twice and on their home floor.

IMO we are one win short. Not the cincy game or the TT game, not the semifinal game. Just any win. We finished at 46 in the net. Temple at 56. We win one more or temple loses to ucf to close the regular season we would be in over temple.

But I’ll still be watching the selection show with our metric rankings crazier things have happened. Let’s get to New York and win the NIT
03-17-2019 10:38 AM
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BandwagonJumper Away
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
This thread is mind bottling.
03-17-2019 10:43 AM
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TigerSeth Offline
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
(03-17-2019 10:25 AM)dwash Wrote:  Honestly, do we deserve a tourney spot? Didnt get the job done in too many big games.

No.
03-17-2019 10:51 AM
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memtigbb Offline
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
(03-17-2019 10:51 AM)TigerSeth Wrote:  
(03-17-2019 10:25 AM)dwash Wrote:  Honestly, do we deserve a tourney spot? Didnt get the job done in too many big games.

No.

I agree. We had shots and didn't take advantage of them. We do not deserve to be a NCAA team. Hate it for Martin, but the team just didn't get enough done.

Now, lets go win the NIT.
03-17-2019 10:55 AM
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tkgrrett Offline
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
(03-17-2019 10:51 AM)TigerSeth Wrote:  
(03-17-2019 10:25 AM)dwash Wrote:  Honestly, do we deserve a tourney spot? Didnt get the job done in too many big games.

No.

Agreed. Including a couple big games we had in the bag and collapsed.
03-17-2019 10:55 AM
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Tigerspartan Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
No one knows how the commitee will be using their own brand new ranking system. They got tired of teams getting in or left out and people throwing kenpom numbers, rpi numbers, sos numbers out to defend teams or attack teams. They came up with their own ranking. And said that they will go strictly by net rankings.

To what degree? Who knows. But I could see a scenario Memphis gets in over temple and the committee saying “sure they did they finished 10 spots higher in the ranking”

Like I said extremely unlikely. But crazier things have happened.
03-17-2019 10:56 AM
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Tigerspartan Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
Possible. Extremely unlikely. It’s us or temple. We are in the range that it could be possible. Every year there are a couple “shocker” at large bids. Most brackets have us in the 5th team out range. But it would take the commitee convincing themselves us over temple . You can argue it from both sides. We played better down the stretch, reaching the semis and with a higher net ranking. Temple lost to a Wichita state team we beat twice and on their home floor.

IMO we are one win short. Not the cincy game or the TT game, not the semifinal game. Just any win. We finished at 46 in the net. Temple at 56. We win one more or temple loses to ucf to close the regular season we would be in over temple.

But I’ll still be watching the selection show with our metric rankings crazier things have happened. Let’s get to New York and win the NIT
03-17-2019 11:01 AM
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BartlettTigerFan Offline
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
I think it's more likely that neither Memphis nor Temple gets an invite than Memphis gets an invite over Temple.
03-17-2019 11:02 AM
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jgardne Offline
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
I agree that the most likely outcome is that both us and temple are out.

However, a lot of these bubble teams are wildly undeserving as well. They get 14 chances for a quad 1 win, including 8 at home and a couple of neutral floors just because of conference and they take a few of them and suddenly it’s wow, look who they beat.

People need to understand probabilities when they discuss invites. Being 4-10 in quad 1 games is not more impressive than being 2-5.
03-17-2019 11:08 AM
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snowtiger Offline
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
If we get in, I will eat a shoe.
03-17-2019 11:15 AM
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bariggins98 Offline
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Post: #18
RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
(03-17-2019 11:02 AM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  I think it's more likely that neither Memphis nor Temple gets an invite than Memphis gets an invite over Temple.

Yep. In the eyes of the committee, it's better to have a 16-16 slaw a** SEC team than a 5th AAC team.

Another prediction - Wofford will be matched up in 3rd round game to face Nevada, Murray State, or Davidson. That, or be an 8 seed matched against Duke.

Amazing each year that the strong mid majors seem to somehow always be on the same side of the bracket.
03-17-2019 11:36 AM
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bariggins98 Offline
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
(03-17-2019 09:34 AM)Julian Wrote:  According to Team Rankings, Memphis has a 79% chance of making in the NCAA tournament as a 12 seed. Memphis is #4 in AAC.

Never heard of this system. LUnardi and Palm don't even have Memphis in their first 8 out.

AAC will get 4. Temple will get nod over Memphis. 8-8 vs Quad 1 and 2 to Memphis 4-12 vs Quad 1 and 2. That's 4 games better. No way Memphis gets in.
03-17-2019 11:43 AM
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thagr82008 Offline
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RE: Memphis could still make the NCAAs
(03-17-2019 11:02 AM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  I think it's more likely that neither Memphis nor Temple gets an invite than Memphis gets an invite over Temple.

one of these two getting in.... honestly, we deserve the nod but I think the storyline of Frans' retirement year is more compelling to them rn.....03-hissyfit I would LOVE to be wrong!
03-17-2019 11:48 AM
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