(03-15-2019 08:54 AM)RedandBlackAttack Wrote:  

(03-15-2019 12:54 AM)wmubroncopilot Wrote:  Regardless of the prior UB-NIU result, you'd have to be crazy to give NIU a better shot than Toledo to beat the Bulls going forward.

Toledo has the better team, for sure, but NIU has the best individual player between the two teams.

If you watch these tournaments, year after year, surprise teams make runs usually by individual breakout performers.

You do make a great point. Toledo absolutely could not stop German. It was painful to watch as a Rocket fan. He's a beast. Toledo does not have a player like that.

(03-15-2019 08:23 AM)zrb2 Wrote:  Should be a fun evening. First game: Buffalo vs. CMU

Second game: Team that beat UB vs. The other team that beat UB

I'm glad BG and NIU made it to the semi-finals. Outsiders who claimed that Buffalo lost two MAC games to nobody's can now see that both programs are very solid this season.

That's interesting, for sure. But I'm sure the MAC office would have killed for a UT/BG semifinal matchup. Could you imagine that crowd?

(03-15-2019 09:15 AM)inductchuck16 Wrote:  

(03-15-2019 08:23 AM)zrb2 Wrote:  Should be a fun evening. First game: Buffalo vs. CMU

Second game: Team that beat UB vs. The other team that beat UB

I'm glad BG and NIU made it to the semi-finals. Outsiders who claimed that Buffalo lost two MAC games to nobody's can now see that both programs are very solid this season.

That's interesting, for sure. But I'm sure the MAC office would have killed for a UT/BG semifinal matchup. Could you imagine that crowd?

Yes, that went through my mind at well.

It would have been a dream matchup. Was TOL looking ahead?????

BTW, sometimes a team which plays a first round game is sharp for the quarterfinals. German was money last night.

I have the "EMU Steve Upset Theorem" about how to pull an upset: Make 10 or more treys while shooting over 50% (behind the arc).

NIU had 17 (three ball) shots and got 30 points. JT4 (for EMU) would need to make 15 of 17 shots in the paint to get 30 points on 17 shots. 15 / 17 is unheard of even for Shaq, etc.

My guess if NIU makes 10 of 17 treys OR JT4 makes 15 of 17 2-point shots NIU and EMU would win their games. 30 points is a LOT of production from 17 shots in the collegiate game.

Akron shot 23.7% for the game.

(03-15-2019 09:42 AM)SUisBigEast4ever Wrote:  Akron shot 23.7% for the game.

Not really much of a surprise to be honest. We've sucked offensively the entire MAC season.

(03-15-2019 07:14 AM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  

(03-14-2019 03:15 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  CMU, BSU, and winner of the final game will be a 3/4 West final 4!

Are West fans math challenged?

(03-15-2019 11:19 AM)axeme Wrote:  

(03-15-2019 07:14 AM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  

(03-14-2019 03:15 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  CMU, BSU, and winner of the final game will be a 3/4 West final 4!

Are West fans math challenged?

I think you might be.

(03-15-2019 11:33 AM)george14 Wrote:  

(03-15-2019 11:19 AM)axeme Wrote:  

(03-15-2019 07:14 AM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  

(03-14-2019 03:15 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  CMU, BSU, and winner of the final game will be a 3/4 West final 4!

Are West fans math challenged?

I think you might be.

Last time I checked, BG and UB were both in the East.

I'm 99% confident that Buffalo will beat CMU and 65% confident that BG will beat NIU. This means I'm placing a MAC East vs. MAC East title game at an 82% chance of occurring.

I'm thinking German was none too happy about only being 2nd team All-MAC. And is taking it out on the other MAC teams.

So he waited until NOW to play his best?

(03-15-2019 11:38 AM)axeme Wrote:  

(03-15-2019 11:33 AM)george14 Wrote:  

(03-15-2019 11:19 AM)axeme Wrote:  

(03-15-2019 07:14 AM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  

(03-14-2019 03:15 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  CMU, BSU, and winner of the final game will be a 3/4 West final 4!

Are West fans math challenged?

I think you might be.

Last time I checked, BG and UB were both in the East.

I’m not sure what you are missing.

He said “CMU, BSU and the winner of NIU-TOL will mean a 3/4 MACW final.” CMU won, BSU lost, and NIU won. So now it is 2/4 MACW final. This has nothing to do with BG.

Alrighty MAC, there are two more chances to get a 2nd NCAA bid. A few more hours to go before chance #1.

Out of the teams left I think BGSU has the best chance of beating Buffalo in the tournament.

(03-15-2019 11:38 AM)axeme Wrote:  

(03-15-2019 11:33 AM)george14 Wrote:  

(03-15-2019 11:19 AM)axeme Wrote:  

(03-15-2019 07:14 AM)Schadenfreude Wrote:  

(03-14-2019 03:15 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  CMU, BSU, and winner of the final game will be a 3/4 West final 4!

Are West fans math challenged?

I think you might be.

Last time I checked, BG and UB were both in the East.

I said that prior to the Toledo game and I assumed BSU would win the late matchup. That's why I named them...

(03-15-2019 12:29 PM)axeme Wrote:  So he waited until NOW to play his best?

He was just waiting for someone to pass him off.

Regardless of how this game plays out, I admit I was wrong counting CMU this game. They've shown they can hold their own against Buffalo.

(03-15-2019 11:45 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I'm 99% confident that Buffalo will beat CMU and 65% confident that BG will beat NIU. This means I'm placing a MAC East vs. MAC East title game at an 82% chance of occurring.

I’m no statistics whiz but I’m pretty sure your level of confidence in an event happening has almost no relationship to the probability of that event happening.

(03-15-2019 08:32 PM)H2Oville Rocket Wrote:  

(03-15-2019 11:45 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I'm 99% confident that Buffalo will beat CMU and 65% confident that BG will beat NIU. This means I'm placing a MAC East vs. MAC East title game at an 82% chance of occurring.

I’m no statistics whiz but I’m pretty sure your level of confidence in an event happening has almost no relationship to the probability of that event happening.

I'm no statitician, but by my math there is a 100% chance of a MAC East vs MAC East title game.

The MAC East in the last 15 years has accounted for 25 out of the 30 finals teams and 14 out of the last 15 tournament championships.

(03-15-2019 11:45 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  I'm 99% confident that Buffalo will beat CMU and 65% confident that BG will beat NIU. This means I'm placing a MAC East vs. MAC East title game at an 82% chance of occurring.

I'm not sure the probs were correct but now they are 100%.

I got about 64%. The probability of a joint event (UB winning .and. BG winning) = prob of UB winning (supposedly 99%) x prob of BG winning (supposedly 65%).

.99 x .65 = .64.

20 - 20 hindsight = 100% probs.