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How Big is too Big for the SEC?
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #81
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-16-2019 01:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-16-2019 11:33 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  I honestly don’t think anyone will go past 16 and even then no one has been willing to pull that trigger yet because it has to be a pair that truly puts you over the top.

IOW, everyone would take the UT/OU combo

But not no one wants to take LHN or their political baggage tagalongs and they can’t agree on which league they’d both want to join even if the first two weren’t issues.

So the only real super hyper profitable combo is realistically off the table

But hey maybe something truly out of left field no one saw coming and the SEC goes all in on its basketball by inviting KU and UNC

16 will be the max.
There is zero chance that Oklahoma and Texas end up in the same conference.
Texas will only give up the LHN if ESPN continues to pay. The contract called for an average of $15 Million. Almost all media contracts are back end loaded, and the Longhorns only hit the $15 Million per year in the last year of two, which means every year since is worth much more than $15 million per year.

Most discussion has been focused on "home run" additions and we know the most available are Oklahoma and Texas, but realistically a good regional "solid single" or double would end up paying long term benefits for any conference.

For those who want balance the problem is the PAC is not in ESPN hands so Texas isn't headed there, and they don't earn enough to make that move possible. But if it were possible and Texa-homa was workable to take the PAC to 16 then you might see the SEC go after Kansas and T.C.U. as both meet some needs or desires. The problem then is that the Big 10 doesn't have options. And quite frankly T.C.U. and Kansas wouldn't pay their way into the SEC.

Because of that things will go to the highest bidder. Texas and Oklahoma could easily move together. It's the only way that the Big 10 gets involved and they will get involved. I don't look for any emphasis on balancing things out. It will be winner takes all if movement occurs.

The only other viable possibility I see is UT/TTU to the SEC and OU/KU to the Big 10.
(This post was last modified: 03-16-2019 01:43 PM by JRsec.)
03-16-2019 01:39 PM
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XLance Online
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Post: #82
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-16-2019 01:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-16-2019 01:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-16-2019 11:33 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  I honestly don’t think anyone will go past 16 and even then no one has been willing to pull that trigger yet because it has to be a pair that truly puts you over the top.

IOW, everyone would take the UT/OU combo

But not no one wants to take LHN or their political baggage tagalongs and they can’t agree on which league they’d both want to join even if the first two weren’t issues.

So the only real super hyper profitable combo is realistically off the table

But hey maybe something truly out of left field no one saw coming and the SEC goes all in on its basketball by inviting KU and UNC

16 will be the max.
There is zero chance that Oklahoma and Texas end up in the same conference.
Texas will only give up the LHN if ESPN continues to pay. The contract called for an average of $15 Million. Almost all media contracts are back end loaded, and the Longhorns only hit the $15 Million per year in the last year of two, which means every year since is worth much more than $15 million per year.

Most discussion has been focused on "home run" additions and we know the most available are Oklahoma and Texas, but realistically a good regional "solid single" or double would end up paying long term benefits for any conference.

For those who want balance the problem is the PAC is not in ESPN hands so Texas isn't headed there, and they don't earn enough to make that move possible. But if it were possible and Texa-homa was workable to take the PAC to 16 then you might see the SEC go after Kansas and T.C.U. as both meet some needs or desires. The problem then is that the Big 10 doesn't have options. And quite frankly T.C.U. and Kansas wouldn't pay their way into the SEC.

Because of that things will go to the highest bidder. Texas and Oklahoma could easily move together. It's the only way that the Big 10 gets involved and they will get involved. I don't look for any emphasis on balancing things out. It will be winner takes all if movement occurs.

The only other viable possibility I see is UT/TTU to the SEC and OU/KU to the Big 10.

Once the valuations are in for the PAC, I wonder if they might be looking to buy Texas from ESPN or perhaps trade a percentage of ownership for the Longhorns.
03-16-2019 02:46 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #83
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-16-2019 02:46 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-16-2019 01:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-16-2019 01:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-16-2019 11:33 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  I honestly don’t think anyone will go past 16 and even then no one has been willing to pull that trigger yet because it has to be a pair that truly puts you over the top.

IOW, everyone would take the UT/OU combo

But not no one wants to take LHN or their political baggage tagalongs and they can’t agree on which league they’d both want to join even if the first two weren’t issues.

So the only real super hyper profitable combo is realistically off the table

But hey maybe something truly out of left field no one saw coming and the SEC goes all in on its basketball by inviting KU and UNC

16 will be the max.
There is zero chance that Oklahoma and Texas end up in the same conference.
Texas will only give up the LHN if ESPN continues to pay. The contract called for an average of $15 Million. Almost all media contracts are back end loaded, and the Longhorns only hit the $15 Million per year in the last year of two, which means every year since is worth much more than $15 million per year.

Most discussion has been focused on "home run" additions and we know the most available are Oklahoma and Texas, but realistically a good regional "solid single" or double would end up paying long term benefits for any conference.

For those who want balance the problem is the PAC is not in ESPN hands so Texas isn't headed there, and they don't earn enough to make that move possible. But if it were possible and Texa-homa was workable to take the PAC to 16 then you might see the SEC go after Kansas and T.C.U. as both meet some needs or desires. The problem then is that the Big 10 doesn't have options. And quite frankly T.C.U. and Kansas wouldn't pay their way into the SEC.

Because of that things will go to the highest bidder. Texas and Oklahoma could easily move together. It's the only way that the Big 10 gets involved and they will get involved. I don't look for any emphasis on balancing things out. It will be winner takes all if movement occurs.

The only other viable possibility I see is UT/TTU to the SEC and OU/KU to the Big 10.

Once the valuations are in for the PAC, I wonder if they might be looking to buy Texas from ESPN or perhaps trade a percentage of ownership for the Longhorns.

If that could happen you could have more balance. It wouldn't leave anything for the Big 10 of substance. Maybe the SEC looks at a 2nd Texas school with T.C.U. which puts them in DFW and maybe we take Kansas to pair with them.

I could see WVU to the ACC to shore up some SOS in football. Do you guys take Baylor? I don't think so.

But all that's left is Iowa State and Kansas State and Baylor.

But to be blunt I don't see the value in the PAC for ESPN or FOX to even consider utilizing Texas and Oklahoma that way. Their content value is much more lucrative in either the SEC or Big 10. So if there's movement it will be to one or both of those.
03-16-2019 03:03 PM
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XLance Online
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Post: #84
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
The question of balance really belongs to ESPN/FOX/or any other future college football producing broadcasting entity. If those guys can't monetize the west coast, then there is really no reason to include them in equally.

When the SEC was instructed to take Missouri, ESPN put the brakes on the entire process.

At this point further movement will be suggested by "the networks".
03-17-2019 08:07 AM
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Gamecock Offline
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Post: #85
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-17-2019 08:07 AM)XLance Wrote:  The question of balance really belongs to ESPN/FOX/or any other future college football producing broadcasting entity. If those guys can't monetize the west coast, then there is really no reason to include them in equally.

When the SEC was instructed to take Missouri, ESPN put the brakes on the entire process.

At this point further movement will be suggested by "the networks".

Not always.

The networks really didn’t have anything to do with A&M for example. They did suggest Missouri but that was the best realistic option at the time
03-17-2019 08:16 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #86
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-17-2019 08:16 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  
(03-17-2019 08:07 AM)XLance Wrote:  The question of balance really belongs to ESPN/FOX/or any other future college football producing broadcasting entity. If those guys can't monetize the west coast, then there is really no reason to include them in equally.

When the SEC was instructed to take Missouri, ESPN put the brakes on the entire process.

At this point further movement will be suggested by "the networks".

Not always.

The networks really didn’t have anything to do with A&M for example. They did suggest Missouri but that was the best realistic option at the time

As long as a conference is under contract to a network at the time of an expansion the network will have an extremely strong power of suggestion. It's really this simple. The network will either agree to pay for the addition, or not. If they don't, or won't, pay for an addition it won't be made. If they do it will. So by the power of the purse the network controls who gets in and who doesn't.
03-17-2019 10:03 AM
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XLance Online
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Post: #87
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-16-2019 03:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-16-2019 02:46 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-16-2019 01:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-16-2019 01:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-16-2019 11:33 AM)10thMountain Wrote:  I honestly don’t think anyone will go past 16 and even then no one has been willing to pull that trigger yet because it has to be a pair that truly puts you over the top.

IOW, everyone would take the UT/OU combo

But not no one wants to take LHN or their political baggage tagalongs and they can’t agree on which league they’d both want to join even if the first two weren’t issues.

So the only real super hyper profitable combo is realistically off the table

But hey maybe something truly out of left field no one saw coming and the SEC goes all in on its basketball by inviting KU and UNC

16 will be the max.
There is zero chance that Oklahoma and Texas end up in the same conference.
Texas will only give up the LHN if ESPN continues to pay. The contract called for an average of $15 Million. Almost all media contracts are back end loaded, and the Longhorns only hit the $15 Million per year in the last year of two, which means every year since is worth much more than $15 million per year.

Most discussion has been focused on "home run" additions and we know the most available are Oklahoma and Texas, but realistically a good regional "solid single" or double would end up paying long term benefits for any conference.

For those who want balance the problem is the PAC is not in ESPN hands so Texas isn't headed there, and they don't earn enough to make that move possible. But if it were possible and Texa-homa was workable to take the PAC to 16 then you might see the SEC go after Kansas and T.C.U. as both meet some needs or desires. The problem then is that the Big 10 doesn't have options. And quite frankly T.C.U. and Kansas wouldn't pay their way into the SEC.

Because of that things will go to the highest bidder. Texas and Oklahoma could easily move together. It's the only way that the Big 10 gets involved and they will get involved. I don't look for any emphasis on balancing things out. It will be winner takes all if movement occurs.

The only other viable possibility I see is UT/TTU to the SEC and OU/KU to the Big 10.

Once the valuations are in for the PAC, I wonder if they might be looking to buy Texas from ESPN or perhaps trade a percentage of ownership for the Longhorns.

If that could happen you could have more balance. It wouldn't leave anything for the Big 10 of substance. Maybe the SEC looks at a 2nd Texas school with T.C.U. which puts them in DFW and maybe we take Kansas to pair with them.

I could see WVU to the ACC to shore up some SOS in football. Do you guys take Baylor? I don't think so.

But all that's left is Iowa State and Kansas State and Baylor.

But to be blunt I don't see the value in the PAC for ESPN or FOX to even consider utilizing Texas and Oklahoma that way. Their content value is much more lucrative in either the SEC or Big 10. So if there's movement it will be to one or both of those.

I'm not sure that ESPN would give up one inch of Texas to FOX or any other broadcast entity.
The number of people in Texas is more than double the population of Iowa, Kansas and Oklahoma. I would think it would be smart for ESPN to keep all of the Texas schools under their banner.
03-18-2019 03:52 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #88
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-18-2019 03:52 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-16-2019 03:03 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-16-2019 02:46 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-16-2019 01:39 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-16-2019 01:13 PM)XLance Wrote:  16 will be the max.
There is zero chance that Oklahoma and Texas end up in the same conference.
Texas will only give up the LHN if ESPN continues to pay. The contract called for an average of $15 Million. Almost all media contracts are back end loaded, and the Longhorns only hit the $15 Million per year in the last year of two, which means every year since is worth much more than $15 million per year.

Most discussion has been focused on "home run" additions and we know the most available are Oklahoma and Texas, but realistically a good regional "solid single" or double would end up paying long term benefits for any conference.

For those who want balance the problem is the PAC is not in ESPN hands so Texas isn't headed there, and they don't earn enough to make that move possible. But if it were possible and Texa-homa was workable to take the PAC to 16 then you might see the SEC go after Kansas and T.C.U. as both meet some needs or desires. The problem then is that the Big 10 doesn't have options. And quite frankly T.C.U. and Kansas wouldn't pay their way into the SEC.

Because of that things will go to the highest bidder. Texas and Oklahoma could easily move together. It's the only way that the Big 10 gets involved and they will get involved. I don't look for any emphasis on balancing things out. It will be winner takes all if movement occurs.

The only other viable possibility I see is UT/TTU to the SEC and OU/KU to the Big 10.

Once the valuations are in for the PAC, I wonder if they might be looking to buy Texas from ESPN or perhaps trade a percentage of ownership for the Longhorns.

If that could happen you could have more balance. It wouldn't leave anything for the Big 10 of substance. Maybe the SEC looks at a 2nd Texas school with T.C.U. which puts them in DFW and maybe we take Kansas to pair with them.

I could see WVU to the ACC to shore up some SOS in football. Do you guys take Baylor? I don't think so.

But all that's left is Iowa State and Kansas State and Baylor.

But to be blunt I don't see the value in the PAC for ESPN or FOX to even consider utilizing Texas and Oklahoma that way. Their content value is much more lucrative in either the SEC or Big 10. So if there's movement it will be to one or both of those.

I'm not sure that ESPN would give up one inch of Texas to FOX or any other broadcast entity.
The number of people in Texas is more than double the population of Iowa, Kansas and Oklahoma. I would think it would be smart for ESPN to keep all of the Texas schools under their banner.

Yeah, you're preaching to the choir. So much lines up for Texas if they and Tech head to the SEC, OU and KU head to the Big 10 and we put a wreath on the headstone of the Big 12 as a power conference.
03-18-2019 05:51 PM
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Post: #89
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
But there's no reason for Texas and OU to leave the Big 12. They are among the biggest money makers.

The ACC is tied up until 2036.

The Pac 12 California schools are too far west to fit anywhere else.

The SEC and B1G schools have no reason to move.

Nobody worthwhile is available to the SEC. Nothing much happens until the mid-30s when, most likely all the GORs are up about the same time and the media market has completed a significant change from the current cable model. Then all bets are off.
03-18-2019 06:58 PM
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Post: #90
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-18-2019 06:58 PM)bullet Wrote:  But there's no reason for Texas and OU to leave the Big 12. They are among the biggest money makers.

The ACC is tied up until 2036.

The Pac 12 California schools are too far west to fit anywhere else.

The SEC and B1G schools have no reason to move.

Nobody worthwhile is available to the SEC. Nothing much happens until the mid-30s when, most likely all the GORs are up about the same time and the media market has completed a significant change from the current cable model. Then all bets are off.

I guess we will see, since FOX is reducing their Big 12 exposure, if ESPN is willing to pay the freight on the entire Big 12 just to keep Texas and Oklahoma or whether it may be more profitable to move them to other conferences and save themselves a couple hundred million dollars.
03-22-2019 03:23 PM
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Post: #91
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-22-2019 03:23 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-18-2019 06:58 PM)bullet Wrote:  But there's no reason for Texas and OU to leave the Big 12. They are among the biggest money makers.

The ACC is tied up until 2036.

The Pac 12 California schools are too far west to fit anywhere else.

The SEC and B1G schools have no reason to move.

Nobody worthwhile is available to the SEC. Nothing much happens until the mid-30s when, most likely all the GORs are up about the same time and the media market has completed a significant change from the current cable model. Then all bets are off.

I guess we will see, since FOX is reducing their Big 12 exposure, if ESPN is willing to pay the freight on the entire Big 12 just to keep Texas and Oklahoma or whether it may be more profitable to move them to other conferences and save themselves a couple hundred million dollars.

Ultimately, it might be cheaper for ESPN to buy out Fox's half of the Big XII rights. I mean, if you're ESPN would you want to give 10 teams (Big XII) a raise when the time comes, or 16 teams (the 14 SEC teams plus 2 more)? No way moving Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC saves ESPN much money, if any, as compared with simply buying full rights to the Big XII.

[NOTE: I'm not accounting for the increase in VALUE of putting Texas in the SEC - but that is a theoretical value, whereas the cost of a new SEC contract is definitely NOT theoretical...]
(This post was last modified: 03-22-2019 03:44 PM by Hokie Mark.)
03-22-2019 03:42 PM
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Post: #92
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-22-2019 03:42 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(03-22-2019 03:23 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-18-2019 06:58 PM)bullet Wrote:  But there's no reason for Texas and OU to leave the Big 12. They are among the biggest money makers.

The ACC is tied up until 2036.

The Pac 12 California schools are too far west to fit anywhere else.

The SEC and B1G schools have no reason to move.

Nobody worthwhile is available to the SEC. Nothing much happens until the mid-30s when, most likely all the GORs are up about the same time and the media market has completed a significant change from the current cable model. Then all bets are off.

I guess we will see, since FOX is reducing their Big 12 exposure, if ESPN is willing to pay the freight on the entire Big 12 just to keep Texas and Oklahoma or whether it may be more profitable to move them to other conferences and save themselves a couple hundred million dollars.

Ultimately, it might be cheaper for ESPN to buy out Fox's half of the Big XII rights. I mean, if you're ESPN would you want to give 10 teams (Big XII) a raise when the time comes, or 16 teams (the 14 SEC teams plus 2 more)? No way moving Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC saves ESPN much money, if any, as compared with simply buying full rights to the Big XII.

[NOTE: I'm not accounting for the increase in VALUE of putting Texas in the SEC - but that is a theoretical value, whereas the cost of a new SEC contract is definitely NOT theoretical...]

Your whole argument is flawed.
A. They get rid of the LHN for the 10 million raise that Texas essentially would get in the SEC (which CBS would be paying for) and they get Texas vs much more highly ranked brands. The profit more on the multiples of content and have half of the rights to the RRR assuming OU heads to the Big 10 instead of the SEC.
B. With Texas Tech they lock down the top advertising rates in the state of Texas without having to pay for Baylor and T.C.U. at inflated rates.
C. So for the 35 million per year (the difference UT and TTU earn in the Big 12 now vs the 60 million they would be earning in the SEC) if Kansas and Oklahoma move to the Big 10 there are 8 other schools that they don't have to pay 17.5 million a year (their half of the current contract) which equates to another 140 million in savings per year.
D. If WVU moves to the ACC the payout to them would be equal to what they are receiving now.

So Hokie Mark you are wrong across the board in assuming that it would cost ESPN more. Especially since the SEC's move to 60 million will come from the CBS renewal. If the SEC gets a bump for Texas it would be 2.5 million per school or 40 million in cost to the Mouse.

All that it takes for this to happen is for OU and Kansas to head to the Big 10 and Texas and Tech to head to the SEC. The rest of the product, even if some of it were to wind back up in ESPN hands would be a NET savings over the current Big 12 contract and the upside for the Mouse is the vastly multiplied value of Texas vs SEC brands.
(This post was last modified: 03-22-2019 05:33 PM by JRsec.)
03-22-2019 05:25 PM
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Post: #93
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-22-2019 05:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-22-2019 03:42 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(03-22-2019 03:23 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-18-2019 06:58 PM)bullet Wrote:  But there's no reason for Texas and OU to leave the Big 12. They are among the biggest money makers.

The ACC is tied up until 2036.

The Pac 12 California schools are too far west to fit anywhere else.

The SEC and B1G schools have no reason to move.

Nobody worthwhile is available to the SEC. Nothing much happens until the mid-30s when, most likely all the GORs are up about the same time and the media market has completed a significant change from the current cable model. Then all bets are off.

I guess we will see, since FOX is reducing their Big 12 exposure, if ESPN is willing to pay the freight on the entire Big 12 just to keep Texas and Oklahoma or whether it may be more profitable to move them to other conferences and save themselves a couple hundred million dollars.

Ultimately, it might be cheaper for ESPN to buy out Fox's half of the Big XII rights. I mean, if you're ESPN would you want to give 10 teams (Big XII) a raise when the time comes, or 16 teams (the 14 SEC teams plus 2 more)? No way moving Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC saves ESPN much money, if any, as compared with simply buying full rights to the Big XII.

[NOTE: I'm not accounting for the increase in VALUE of putting Texas in the SEC - but that is a theoretical value, whereas the cost of a new SEC contract is definitely NOT theoretical...]

Your whole argument is flawed.
A. They get rid of the LHN for the 10 million raise that Texas essentially would get in the SEC (which CBS would be paying for) and they get Texas vs much more highly ranked brands. The profit more on the multiples of content and have half of the rights to the RRR assuming OU heads to the Big 10 instead of the SEC.
B. With Texas Tech they lock down the top advertising rates in the state of Texas without having to pay for Baylor and T.C.U. at inflated rates.
C. So for the 35 million per year (the difference UT and TTU earn in the Big 12 now vs the 60 million they would be earning in the SEC) if Kansas and Oklahoma move to the Big 10 there are 8 other schools that they don't have to pay 17.5 million a year (their half of the current contract) which equates to another 140 million in savings per year.
D. If WVU moves to the ACC the payout to them would be equal to what they are receiving now.

So Hokie Mark you are wrong across the board in assuming that it would cost ESPN more. Especially since the SEC's move to 60 million will come from the CBS renewal. If the SEC gets a bump for Texas it would be 2.5 million per school or 40 million in cost to the Mouse.

All that it takes for this to happen is for OU and Kansas to head to the Big 10 and Texas and Tech to head to the SEC. The rest of the product, even if some of it were to wind back up in ESPN hands would be a NET savings over the current Big 12 contract and the upside for the Mouse is the vastly multiplied value of Texas vs SEC brands.

If Tech and UT head to the SEC and OU and KU head to the Big 10, I think 4 other Big 12 schools need a home to dissolve the Big 12. Is that correct?
03-22-2019 05:53 PM
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RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-22-2019 05:53 PM)P5PACSEC Wrote:  
(03-22-2019 05:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-22-2019 03:42 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(03-22-2019 03:23 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-18-2019 06:58 PM)bullet Wrote:  But there's no reason for Texas and OU to leave the Big 12. They are among the biggest money makers.

The ACC is tied up until 2036.

The Pac 12 California schools are too far west to fit anywhere else.

The SEC and B1G schools have no reason to move.

Nobody worthwhile is available to the SEC. Nothing much happens until the mid-30s when, most likely all the GORs are up about the same time and the media market has completed a significant change from the current cable model. Then all bets are off.

I guess we will see, since FOX is reducing their Big 12 exposure, if ESPN is willing to pay the freight on the entire Big 12 just to keep Texas and Oklahoma or whether it may be more profitable to move them to other conferences and save themselves a couple hundred million dollars.

Ultimately, it might be cheaper for ESPN to buy out Fox's half of the Big XII rights. I mean, if you're ESPN would you want to give 10 teams (Big XII) a raise when the time comes, or 16 teams (the 14 SEC teams plus 2 more)? No way moving Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC saves ESPN much money, if any, as compared with simply buying full rights to the Big XII.

[NOTE: I'm not accounting for the increase in VALUE of putting Texas in the SEC - but that is a theoretical value, whereas the cost of a new SEC contract is definitely NOT theoretical...]

Your whole argument is flawed.
A. They get rid of the LHN for the 10 million raise that Texas essentially would get in the SEC (which CBS would be paying for) and they get Texas vs much more highly ranked brands. The profit more on the multiples of content and have half of the rights to the RRR assuming OU heads to the Big 10 instead of the SEC.
B. With Texas Tech they lock down the top advertising rates in the state of Texas without having to pay for Baylor and T.C.U. at inflated rates.
C. So for the 35 million per year (the difference UT and TTU earn in the Big 12 now vs the 60 million they would be earning in the SEC) if Kansas and Oklahoma move to the Big 10 there are 8 other schools that they don't have to pay 17.5 million a year (their half of the current contract) which equates to another 140 million in savings per year.
D. If WVU moves to the ACC the payout to them would be equal to what they are receiving now.

So Hokie Mark you are wrong across the board in assuming that it would cost ESPN more. Especially since the SEC's move to 60 million will come from the CBS renewal. If the SEC gets a bump for Texas it would be 2.5 million per school or 40 million in cost to the Mouse.

All that it takes for this to happen is for OU and Kansas to head to the Big 10 and Texas and Tech to head to the SEC. The rest of the product, even if some of it were to wind back up in ESPN hands would be a NET savings over the current Big 12 contract and the upside for the Mouse is the vastly multiplied value of Texas vs SEC brands.

If Tech and UT head to the SEC and OU and KU head to the Big 10, I think 4 other Big 12 schools need a home to dissolve the Big 12. Is that correct?

The leftovers of the Big 12 would just add the western division of the AAC.
03-22-2019 07:21 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #95
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-22-2019 05:53 PM)P5PACSEC Wrote:  
(03-22-2019 05:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-22-2019 03:42 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(03-22-2019 03:23 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-18-2019 06:58 PM)bullet Wrote:  But there's no reason for Texas and OU to leave the Big 12. They are among the biggest money makers.

The ACC is tied up until 2036.

The Pac 12 California schools are too far west to fit anywhere else.

The SEC and B1G schools have no reason to move.

Nobody worthwhile is available to the SEC. Nothing much happens until the mid-30s when, most likely all the GORs are up about the same time and the media market has completed a significant change from the current cable model. Then all bets are off.

I guess we will see, since FOX is reducing their Big 12 exposure, if ESPN is willing to pay the freight on the entire Big 12 just to keep Texas and Oklahoma or whether it may be more profitable to move them to other conferences and save themselves a couple hundred million dollars.

Ultimately, it might be cheaper for ESPN to buy out Fox's half of the Big XII rights. I mean, if you're ESPN would you want to give 10 teams (Big XII) a raise when the time comes, or 16 teams (the 14 SEC teams plus 2 more)? No way moving Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC saves ESPN much money, if any, as compared with simply buying full rights to the Big XII.

[NOTE: I'm not accounting for the increase in VALUE of putting Texas in the SEC - but that is a theoretical value, whereas the cost of a new SEC contract is definitely NOT theoretical...]

Your whole argument is flawed.
A. They get rid of the LHN for the 10 million raise that Texas essentially would get in the SEC (which CBS would be paying for) and they get Texas vs much more highly ranked brands. The profit more on the multiples of content and have half of the rights to the RRR assuming OU heads to the Big 10 instead of the SEC.
B. With Texas Tech they lock down the top advertising rates in the state of Texas without having to pay for Baylor and T.C.U. at inflated rates.
C. So for the 35 million per year (the difference UT and TTU earn in the Big 12 now vs the 60 million they would be earning in the SEC) if Kansas and Oklahoma move to the Big 10 there are 8 other schools that they don't have to pay 17.5 million a year (their half of the current contract) which equates to another 140 million in savings per year.
D. If WVU moves to the ACC the payout to them would be equal to what they are receiving now.

So Hokie Mark you are wrong across the board in assuming that it would cost ESPN more. Especially since the SEC's move to 60 million will come from the CBS renewal. If the SEC gets a bump for Texas it would be 2.5 million per school or 40 million in cost to the Mouse.

All that it takes for this to happen is for OU and Kansas to head to the Big 10 and Texas and Tech to head to the SEC. The rest of the product, even if some of it were to wind back up in ESPN hands would be a NET savings over the current Big 12 contract and the upside for the Mouse is the vastly multiplied value of Texas vs SEC brands.

If Tech and UT head to the SEC and OU and KU head to the Big 10, I think 4 other Big 12 schools need a home to dissolve the Big 12. Is that correct?

Not if movement is timed with the expiration of the GOR with the two year notice served.
03-22-2019 07:33 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #96
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-22-2019 07:21 PM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  
(03-22-2019 05:53 PM)P5PACSEC Wrote:  
(03-22-2019 05:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-22-2019 03:42 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  
(03-22-2019 03:23 PM)XLance Wrote:  I guess we will see, since FOX is reducing their Big 12 exposure, if ESPN is willing to pay the freight on the entire Big 12 just to keep Texas and Oklahoma or whether it may be more profitable to move them to other conferences and save themselves a couple hundred million dollars.

Ultimately, it might be cheaper for ESPN to buy out Fox's half of the Big XII rights. I mean, if you're ESPN would you want to give 10 teams (Big XII) a raise when the time comes, or 16 teams (the 14 SEC teams plus 2 more)? No way moving Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC saves ESPN much money, if any, as compared with simply buying full rights to the Big XII.

[NOTE: I'm not accounting for the increase in VALUE of putting Texas in the SEC - but that is a theoretical value, whereas the cost of a new SEC contract is definitely NOT theoretical...]

Your whole argument is flawed.
A. They get rid of the LHN for the 10 million raise that Texas essentially would get in the SEC (which CBS would be paying for) and they get Texas vs much more highly ranked brands. The profit more on the multiples of content and have half of the rights to the RRR assuming OU heads to the Big 10 instead of the SEC.
B. With Texas Tech they lock down the top advertising rates in the state of Texas without having to pay for Baylor and T.C.U. at inflated rates.
C. So for the 35 million per year (the difference UT and TTU earn in the Big 12 now vs the 60 million they would be earning in the SEC) if Kansas and Oklahoma move to the Big 10 there are 8 other schools that they don't have to pay 17.5 million a year (their half of the current contract) which equates to another 140 million in savings per year.
D. If WVU moves to the ACC the payout to them would be equal to what they are receiving now.

So Hokie Mark you are wrong across the board in assuming that it would cost ESPN more. Especially since the SEC's move to 60 million will come from the CBS renewal. If the SEC gets a bump for Texas it would be 2.5 million per school or 40 million in cost to the Mouse.

All that it takes for this to happen is for OU and Kansas to head to the Big 10 and Texas and Tech to head to the SEC. The rest of the product, even if some of it were to wind back up in ESPN hands would be a NET savings over the current Big 12 contract and the upside for the Mouse is the vastly multiplied value of Texas vs SEC brands.

If Tech and UT head to the SEC and OU and KU head to the Big 10, I think 4 other Big 12 schools need a home to dissolve the Big 12. Is that correct?

The leftovers of the Big 12 would just add the western division of the AAC.

Nah, why take SMU, Tulane, and Tulsa when you can have Cincinnati, UCF, and USF instead?
03-22-2019 07:46 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #97
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-22-2019 07:33 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(03-22-2019 05:53 PM)P5PACSEC Wrote:  If Tech and UT head to the SEC and OU and KU head to the Big 10, I think 4 other Big 12 schools need a home to dissolve the Big 12. Is that correct?

Not if movement is timed with the expiration of the GOR with the two year notice served.

It would also depend on how many actually leave the Big 12. If 0 programs leave then it's all academic and we'd have to wait a decade or more to anticipate real movement. If 2 leave then they'd get a big blow but would have enough to regroup and keep being in the conversation. If up to 5 leave then we'd have a serious conversation over whether the Big 12 can continue then or would those remaining programs be better off merging with another conference, presumably one that has Disney as the benefactor.
03-23-2019 12:33 AM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #98
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
You have to think that the rights that ESPN has with the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten make the Big 12 content non-essential for the mouse. Expect the ESPN offer to be a low ball bid. There's no sense in paying above market prices for 8 football programs in order to secure the rights to 2. They will leave that content for FOX and make FOX pay full price or they make calls to Vanderbilt and Northwestern to facilitate the stripping of the Big 12s most valued assets, Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC and Oklahoma and Kansas to the Big Ten.

Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC will be predicated upon the ESPN owned LHN being converted to SECN2. Both the SEC and Big Ten will then see increased payouts for doing the mouse's dirty work.

In the fallout, Houston, Cincy, UCF, and USF join the depleted Big 12 and the league gets a FOX deal good for about $15M/school, because after all, FOX is left needing content.
03-23-2019 08:56 AM
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XLance Online
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Post: #99
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-23-2019 08:56 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  You have to think that the rights that ESPN has with the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten make the Big 12 content non-essential for the mouse. Expect the ESPN offer to be a low ball bid. There's no sense in paying above market prices for 8 football programs in order to secure the rights to 2. They will leave that content for FOX and make FOX pay full price or they make calls to Vanderbilt and Northwestern to facilitate the stripping of the Big 12s most valued assets, Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC and Oklahoma and Kansas to the Big Ten.

Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC will be predicated upon the ESPN owned LHN being converted to SECN2. Both the SEC and Big Ten will then see increased payouts for doing the mouse's dirty work.

In the fallout, Houston, Cincy, UCF, and USF join the depleted Big 12 and the league gets a FOX deal good for about $15M/school, because after all, FOX is left needing content.

The ACC's "second city" strategy targeted Northwestern and Vanderbilt.
03-24-2019 01:39 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #100
RE: How Big is too Big for the SEC?
(03-24-2019 01:39 PM)XLance Wrote:  
(03-23-2019 08:56 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  You have to think that the rights that ESPN has with the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten make the Big 12 content non-essential for the mouse. Expect the ESPN offer to be a low ball bid. There's no sense in paying above market prices for 8 football programs in order to secure the rights to 2. They will leave that content for FOX and make FOX pay full price or they make calls to Vanderbilt and Northwestern to facilitate the stripping of the Big 12s most valued assets, Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC and Oklahoma and Kansas to the Big Ten.

Texas and Texas Tech to the SEC will be predicated upon the ESPN owned LHN being converted to SECN2. Both the SEC and Big Ten will then see increased payouts for doing the mouse's dirty work.

In the fallout, Houston, Cincy, UCF, and USF join the depleted Big 12 and the league gets a FOX deal good for about $15M/school, because after all, FOX is left needing content.

The ACC's "second city" strategy targeted Northwestern and Vanderbilt.

What's this "second city" strategy?
03-24-2019 04:40 PM
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