(03-24-2019 08:00 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  If UK goes, what happens to the EU?

There are substantial movements for exit in other countries. I could see it falling apart if a couple of other biggies go, although I'm not sure there are any other true biggies, other than France--which has its own problems--and Germany--which isn't going anywhere.

What I think is best is for the whole entity to go back to pre-Lisbon status. A European trade union makes a lot of sense. A single European state has been tried before and never worked--from the Roman Empire to Charlemagne to Napoleon to the Third Reich--and I don't see it working this time.

Peter Zeihan expresses it well. Germany has very poor natural boundaries, except the Alps in the south, and the Swiss aren't going to invade anyone. They're content to sit at home and make stacks of money off you. But east and west, they sit on the vast European plain that extends from France to to Urals in central Russia. France to the west and Russia to the east have historically allied against them, so they are threatened from both sides. They don't have a lot of natural resources, and they have never been great seafarers like the Brits. So to survive, they just have to be better at doing things like manufacturing than anybody else is. The problem is that they do those things so well that they immediately threaten their neighbors. The EU has enabled Germany to ride that ability for quality to unprecedented economic success. They have a vested interest in keeping it. But it has also catered to the German tendency to tell everybody else what to do and how to live their lives.

I always thought Lisbon was a bridge too far. If they could walk that back while saving face, I think they would all be better for it. But once a bureaucrat, always a bureaucrat, and those in Brussels are pretty well entrenched by now. I can't see them wanting to give up their sinecures.

Not that its the most likely scenario, but we could see a two stage EU, going back to the 50s. France, Germany and the Benelux form an even closer EU, gradually admitting like minded EU/NATO states and forming their European army.

(03-24-2019 08:08 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-24-2019 08:00 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  If UK goes, what happens to the EU?
There are substantial movements for exit in other countries. I could see it falling apart if a couple of other biggies go, although I'm not sure there are any other true biggies, other than France--which has its own problems--and Germany--which isn't going anywhere.
What I think is best is for the whole entity to go back to pre-Lisbon status. A European trade union makes a lot of sense. A single European state has been tried before and never worked--from the Roman Empire to Charlemagne to Napoleon to the Third Reich--and I don't see it working this time.
Peter Zeihan expresses it well. Germany has very poor natural boundaries, except the Alps in the south, and the Swiss aren't going to invade anyone. They're content to sit at home and make stacks of money off you. But east and west, they sit on the vast European plain that extends from France to to Urals in central Russia. France to the west and Russia to the east have historically allied against them, so they are threatened from both sides. They don't have a lot of natural resources, and they have never been great seafarers like the Brits. So to survive, they just have to be better at doing things like manufacturing than anybody else is. The problem is that they do those things so well that they immediately threaten their neighbors. The EU has enabled Germany to ride that ability for quality to unprecedented economic success. They have a vested interest in keeping it. But it has also catered to the German tendency to tell everybody else what to do and how to live their lives.
I always thought Lisbon was a bridge too far. If they could walk that back while saving face, I think they would all be better for it. But once a bureaucrat, always a bureaucrat, and those in Brussels are pretty well entrenched by now. I can't see them wanting to give up their sinecures.

Not that its the most likely scenario, but we could see a two stage EU, going back to the 50s. France, Germany and the Benelux form an even closer EU, gradually admitting like minded EU/NATO states and forming their European army.

I'm not sure France plays on that team, but I think it probably makes sense for the rest. The question would be what happens to southern Europe in that formulation--do the benefits of having ready markets for German goods offset the costs to Germany of carrying them?

(03-24-2019 08:05 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(03-23-2019 10:12 PM)Native Georgian Wrote:  So, Brexit either happens *WITH* a deal on 22nd May 2019, or it happens *WITHOUT* a deal on 12th April 2019.

It’s theoretically possible for the British to propose some sort of Plan-C, but other than simply cancelling the entire thing and go crawling back on their knees to the EU, nobody has any real idea what that Plan-C would possibly be, or look like.

Its not 100% certain they approve the delay. There's some chance it still happens March 29.

I was going to ask if the delay had been approved officially. I didn't think it have. Best thing that could happen long term for the Brits is to let it be done this week