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2019 MAC Tourney Projections
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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2019 MAC Tourney Projections
First Round Projections

Ohio @ Northern Illinois, Huskies by 5
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan, Chips by 15
Ball State @ Eastern Michigan, EVEN
Miami-OH @ Akron, Zips by 6

Huskies with about a 5% chance to reach championship game, Huskies have a decent bracket.

[Image: 2019_MACProj.png]

Most likely Championship Matchups

Buffalo vs Toledo 56.1%
Buffalo vs BGSU 18.0%
Toledo vs Kent State 4.3%
Buffalo vs NIU 4.2%
Buffalo vs Ball State 4.2%
Toledo vs Central Michigan 3.2%
Bowling Green vs Kent State 1.4%
Buffalo vs Eastern Michigan 1.3%
Toledo vs Akron 1.1%
Buffalo vs Ohio 1.0%
Bowling Green vs Central Michigan 1.0%

I think this shows NIU was lucky with their draw, NIU vs Buffalo is the 4th most likely MAC championship matchup
(This post was last modified: 03-09-2019 02:11 AM by MaddDawgz02.)
03-09-2019 01:26 AM
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BDB5yp Online
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
Winning that first one will be big.......
03-09-2019 09:35 AM
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thxjoenovak Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
Student attendance should be similar to regular season as next week is Spring Break.
03-09-2019 09:39 AM
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NorthCoast Away
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
03-09-2019 10:21 AM
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BDB5yp Online
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
(03-09-2019 10:21 AM)NorthCoast Wrote:  BRACKET:
https://twitter.com/MACSports/status/110...8867816448


We have a winnable path to the Tourney, and it helps that we’ve beaten the best team in our conference this year.
03-09-2019 03:45 PM
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NorthCoast Away
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
(03-09-2019 03:45 PM)BDB5yp Wrote:  
(03-09-2019 10:21 AM)NorthCoast Wrote:  BRACKET:
https://twitter.com/MACSports/status/110...8867816448


We have a winnable path to the Tourney, and it helps that we’ve beaten the best team in our conference this year.

Yep.

Hopefully, NIU can maneuver the field and make it two teams from Illinois in the 2019 NCAA Tournament.

Congrats to Bradley, the Flagship NCAA Basketball program of Central Illinois!

State of Illinois represent!
03-10-2019 03:15 PM
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dc1 Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
The MAC is currently a better conference than the MVC!
03-10-2019 06:22 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
(03-10-2019 06:22 PM)dc1 Wrote:  The MAC is currently a better conference than the MVC!

Oh heavens yes, and by far
03-10-2019 07:25 PM
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Dtownboys Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
Would be nice to see Buffalo upset so the Mac can be a 2 bid league.
03-10-2019 07:54 PM
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NorthCoast Away
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
(03-10-2019 06:22 PM)dc1 Wrote:  The MAC is currently a better conference than the MVC!

Fixed.

That's been the case for the last few seasons and won't be changing. Top to bottom, there's no comparison.

The current Missouri Valley = the Horizon League.
03-10-2019 08:24 PM
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HuskieDave Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
(03-10-2019 08:24 PM)NorthCoast Wrote:  
(03-10-2019 06:22 PM)dc1 Wrote:  The MAC is currently a better conference than the MVC!

Fixed.

That's been the case for the last few seasons and won't be changing. Top to bottom, there's no comparison.

The current Missouri Valley = the Horizon League.

Losing Wichita State and Creighton hurt the MVC very badly.
03-10-2019 08:41 PM
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NorthCoast Away
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
(03-10-2019 08:41 PM)HuskieDave Wrote:  
(03-10-2019 08:24 PM)NorthCoast Wrote:  
(03-10-2019 06:22 PM)dc1 Wrote:  The MAC is currently a better conference than the MVC!

Fixed.

That's been the case for the last few seasons and won't be changing. Top to bottom, there's no comparison.

The current Missouri Valley = the Horizon League.

Losing Wichita State and Creighton hurt the MVC very badly.

That was its only saving grace for the last few seasons, having a VERY top heavy team pulling up all the others. Once those two left, they became the Horizon. Loyola had its magical season to extend the illusion for that one season, but the metrics were/are already there.

The Horizon Valley.
03-10-2019 08:53 PM
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NorthCoast Away
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
03-11-2019 10:22 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
Updated Projections

My most likely outcomes for Round 2 play:

#2 Toledo vs #7 Northern Illinois, Rockets by 10
#1 Buffalo vs #8 Akron, Bulls by 15
#3 Bowling Green vs #11 Ball State, Falcons by 2
#4 Kent State vs #5 Central Michigan, Golden Flashes by 1

Updated power rankings and unit rankings

http://www.godawgz.com/mac_sortable3.html

Updated sortable tourney probabilities by round (also pasted below)

http://www.godawgz.com/tournchances.html

[Image: 2019_MACProj_Rd2.png]

Finally, the 8 most likely championship games, and probability that each of these matchup will occur:

1. Buffalo vs Toledo 53.2%
2. Buffalo vs BGSU 14.9%
3. Buffalo vs Ball State 8.8%
4. Buffalo vs NIU 6.1%
5. Toledo vs Kent State 4.1%
6. Toledo vs Central Michigan 3.5%
7. Toledo vs Akron 2.1%
8. Kent State vs BGSU 1.1%
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2019 03:16 AM by MaddDawgz02.)
03-12-2019 03:11 AM
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17Huskies Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
MD's projections correct so far.
03-12-2019 06:55 AM
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pvk75 Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
MD ... A truly transcendent statistical dissolution. There. I met my quota of big words for the week. Anyway, your hard work adds another dimension that other boards don't have. They all seem to rely on the same Internet analyses, which we can all look at whenever anyhow. Good stuff, MD.
03-12-2019 03:35 PM
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MaddDawgz02 Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
Thanks 17husk, and pvk. Its very rudimentary and has some major weaknesses. I probably labeled that wrong, not so much a projection/predictions, but more just probabilistic outcomes. I have learned trying to be yes and no in predicting athletics is foolish and it has made me significantly poorer at times. I really like the recent push in probabilities. I have some major problems in my very simple method, but I love this stuff and I hope to make it more sophisticated someday when I have the time and knowledge.
(This post was last modified: 03-12-2019 03:56 PM by MaddDawgz02.)
03-12-2019 03:55 PM
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pantone1935 Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
Kenpom Wannabe.


Good luck with it.


GO HUSKIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
03-12-2019 04:21 PM
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Milwaukee Pilot Offline
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RE: 2019 MAC Tourney Projections
(03-12-2019 03:11 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Updated Projections

My most likely outcomes for Round 2 play:

#2 Toledo vs #7 Northern Illinois, Rockets by 10
#1 Buffalo vs #8 Akron, Bulls by 15
#3 Bowling Green vs #11 Ball State, Falcons by 2
#4 Kent State vs #5 Central Michigan, Golden Flashes by 1

Updated power rankings and unit rankings

http://www.godawgz.com/mac_sortable3.html

Updated sortable tourney probabilities by round (also pasted below)

http://www.godawgz.com/tournchances.html

[Image: 2019_MACProj_Rd2.png]

Finally, the 8 most likely championship games, and probability that each of these matchup will occur:

1. Buffalo vs Toledo 53.2%
2. Buffalo vs BGSU 14.9%
3. Buffalo vs Ball State 8.8%
4. Buffalo vs NIU 6.1%
5. Toledo vs Kent State 4.1%
6. Toledo vs Central Michigan 3.5%
7. Toledo vs Akron 2.1%
8. Kent State vs BGSU 1.1%

Well done MD---Ball State the 11 seed is actually favored. I raised my eyebrows when I saw that you had it so close.....
03-13-2019 08:58 PM
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Stay Cool Offline
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2019 MAC Tourney Projections
Huskies with the huge upset

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03-14-2019 07:34 PM
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