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News February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
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Redwingtom Offline
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Post: #1
February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
I don't buy that this is a huge sign the economy is slowing as wages were up nicely, but it does give you pause.

Quote:WASHINGTON – Hiring tumbled in February, with U.S. employers adding just 20,000 jobs, the smallest monthly gain in nearly a year and a half.

The sharp slowdown in hiring, which might have been worsened by unseasonably cold weather, came after employers had added a blockbuster 311,000 jobs in January, the most in nearly a year. In the past three months, job gains have averaged a solid 186,000.

Still, the pullback comes amid signs that growth is slowing because of a weaker global economy, a trade war between the United States and China, and signs of caution among consumers.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent last month from 4 percent in January, the Labor Department said in its monthly jobs report. Businesses stepped up their competition for workers and raised average hourly pay 3.4 percent from a year earlier, the largest gain in a decade.
US adds just 20K jobs; unemployment dips to 3.8 pct.
03-08-2019 09:56 AM
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UTSAMarineVet09 Offline
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Post: #2
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
or maybe there is a smaller unemployed group to choose from? Just my guess...
03-08-2019 09:59 AM
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Marc Mensa Offline
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Post: #3
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
(03-08-2019 09:59 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  or maybe there is a smaller unemployed group to choose from? Just my guess...

#rememberthelaborparticipationrate?
03-08-2019 10:09 AM
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BuffaloTN Offline
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Post: #4
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
Strange report. Was a lot of snow around the country too.
03-08-2019 10:15 AM
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appst89 Offline
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Post: #5
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
(03-08-2019 10:09 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 09:59 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  or maybe there is a smaller unemployed group to choose from? Just my guess...

#rememberthelaborparticipationrate?

It's the highest it's been in a while.
03-08-2019 10:18 AM
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UofMstateU Offline
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Post: #6
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
If the Jobs added was only 20K AND
Unemployment dipped from 4% to 3.8% AND
Businesses are having issues finding employable people so that they are jacking up wages THEN

there are practically no skilled unemployed people in the workforce.
03-08-2019 10:23 AM
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Marc Mensa Offline
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Post: #7
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
(03-08-2019 10:18 AM)appst89 Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 10:09 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 09:59 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  or maybe there is a smaller unemployed group to choose from? Just my guess...

#rememberthelaborparticipationrate?

It's the highest it's been in a while.

not really
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-stat...ation-rate
03-08-2019 11:05 AM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #8
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
Its worth noting we are entering the 10th year of this expansion. A typical expansion lasts 6 years. With debt levels hitting new highs and Europe showing signs of a slowdown--its not impossible that we see slowing growth and perhaps a shallow recession over the next 6-12 months.
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2019 11:08 AM by Attackcoog.)
03-08-2019 11:07 AM
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Claw Offline
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Post: #9
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
It was winter with bad weather coming off the shutdown.

Wait till the graduating class enters the workforce.
03-08-2019 11:26 AM
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Redwingtom Offline
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Post: #10
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
But what about all the snow plow drivers hired? 03-wink
03-08-2019 11:51 AM
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swagsurfer11 Offline
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Post: #11
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
People stopped looking for jobs.
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2019 11:52 AM by swagsurfer11.)
03-08-2019 11:52 AM
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UofMstateU Offline
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Post: #12
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
(03-08-2019 11:52 AM)swagsurfer11 Wrote:  People stopped looking for jobs.

Because they found full time real employment and didnt need to work two burger flipping jobs to make ends meet.
03-08-2019 11:56 AM
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banker Offline
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Post: #13
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
(03-08-2019 11:05 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 10:18 AM)appst89 Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 10:09 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 09:59 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  or maybe there is a smaller unemployed group to choose from? Just my guess...

#rememberthelaborparticipationrate?

It's the highest it's been in a while.

not really
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-stat...ation-rate

What about the graph/data in the link you provided does not show that "it's the highest its been in a while" that validates your "not really" reply?
03-08-2019 11:59 AM
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UofMstateU Offline
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Post: #14
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
(03-08-2019 11:59 AM)banker Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 11:05 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 10:18 AM)appst89 Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 10:09 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 09:59 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  or maybe there is a smaller unemployed group to choose from? Just my guess...

#rememberthelaborparticipationrate?

It's the highest it's been in a while.

not really
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-stat...ation-rate

What about the graph/data in the link you provided does not show that "it's the highest its been in a while" that validates your "not really" reply?

Here comes another Mensa moment......
03-08-2019 12:14 PM
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appst89 Offline
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Post: #15
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
(03-08-2019 11:05 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 10:18 AM)appst89 Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 10:09 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 09:59 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  or maybe there is a smaller unemployed group to choose from? Just my guess...

#rememberthelaborparticipationrate?

It's the highest it's been in a while.

not really
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-stat...ation-rate

I'll stick with my statement. Nothing in that graph refutes what I said.
03-08-2019 12:17 PM
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Marc Mensa Offline
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Post: #16
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
(03-08-2019 12:17 PM)appst89 Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 11:05 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 10:18 AM)appst89 Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 10:09 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 09:59 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  or maybe there is a smaller unemployed group to choose from? Just my guess...

#rememberthelaborparticipationrate?

It's the highest it's been in a while.

not really
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-stat...ation-rate

I'll stick with my statement. Nothing in that graph refutes what I said.

Ok
03-08-2019 12:31 PM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #17
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
(03-08-2019 11:05 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 10:18 AM)appst89 Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 10:09 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(03-08-2019 09:59 AM)UTSAMarineVet09 Wrote:  or maybe there is a smaller unemployed group to choose from? Just my guess...

#rememberthelaborparticipationrate?

It's the highest it's been in a while.

not really
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-stat...ation-rate

The better source is the BLS, but you're correct that it's not higher than it's been in a while. We've been essentially flat since 2013 (within a 0.3 range) since 2013, but of course that is after a significant fall 2008-2013... but it actually peaked in 2000.


The fallacy in your comment of course is that Obama was touting gains from 2008-2013, ignoring the falling labor participation rate. The rate isn't impacting these numbers in any meaningful way, so the comment is ridiculous

Having said that, the participation rate for those 24-54 (that's the range BLS uses, I didn't pick it) is as high as it's been since 2011 though still well off its peak

It's really the 16-24 age demographic that has taken the hit... and Demos want it that way
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2019 01:03 PM by Hambone10.)
03-08-2019 12:56 PM
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usmbacker Offline
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Post: #18
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
Part of that report that President Trump pointed out that is very good news is that wages are rising faster than they have in a long, long time. The libs running to this board to try and attack Trump's economy is hilarious. Compared to their precious savior of the previous 8 years, President Trump looks like a huge success on the economy. So fire away Libs, you really are a desperate bunch. If Trump pulls of a big deal with China, you libs are going to be a really depressed bunch. Check that, an even more depressed group.
(This post was last modified: 03-08-2019 01:09 PM by usmbacker.)
03-08-2019 01:07 PM
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miko33 Offline
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Post: #19
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
(03-08-2019 01:07 PM)usmbacker Wrote:  Part of that report that President Trump pointed out that is very good news is that wages are rising faster than they have in a long, long time. The libs running to this board to try and attack Trump's economy is hilarious. Compared to their precious savior of the previous 8 years, President Trump looks like a huge success on the economy. So fire away Libs, you really are a desperate bunch. If Trump pulls of a big deal with China, you libs are going to be a really depressed bunch. Check that, an even more depressed group.

If that carries on, then inflation will begin to rise and then interests will follow soon afterwards. This would also bolster Trump's point that we need more immigration because our current labor market is very tight. The caveat is that the labor market is very tight because the participation rate is off from what it should be historically. We have a group of people whose skill sets simply do not match up with the job openings out there today. Also, a number of full time jobs available are being looked down upon by unemployed people and therefore go left unfilled. Some combination of this is occurring.
03-08-2019 02:21 PM
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VA49er Offline
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Post: #20
RE: February Jobs Report - Only 20,000 Added?!?
(03-08-2019 11:52 AM)swagsurfer11 Wrote:  People stopped looking for jobs.

Well, yeah. That tends to happen once one finds a job. At least for a little while anyway.
03-08-2019 02:30 PM
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