With Harper finally signed and most everyone off the FA list(still waiting for Kimbrel and Keuchel to sign but still....) It's time to move to the season thread I feel. 1st games start up in 2 1/2 weeks...

Time for crazy predictions for the season...…

mine is that Harper takes to Philly very well and hits 50 homers. But they miss the playoffs due to a not so great pitching staff.

my playoff picks-
NL- Nats, Brewers, Dodgers win divisions Mets, Cubs wild cards. Nats win NL
AL- Yankees, Indians, Astros win divisions. A's, Red Sox wild cards. Yankees win AL

Yanks beat Nats 4-2 in World Series.

what says everyone else?

NL is gonna be nuts this year. PECOTA projections have only 4 teams in the NL with less than 80 wins, and two of 'em are at 79. They predict teams with 86, 85, and 84 wins will miss the playoffs. The AL projections, while not as deep, have the division winners at 96, 97, and 98 wins (only one NL team is predicted to exceed 90 wins - LA at 93). For the WS anyway, the deck is stacked against the NL once again.

(Not so) crazy prediction: San Diego will call up Fernando Tatis Jr. shortly after the start of the season (only two more weeks in the minors will delay FA for another year) and he'll contribute to SD having a NL top 5 offense. Unfortunately, SD will have NL bottom 3 starting pitching. They'll try to bring someone in before the deadline but will still fall short.

AL: Yankees, Indians, Astros division winners; Rays and Angels (home town pick - I don't really believe this) wild cards. Astros win AL

NL: Nats, Cards, Dodgers division winners; Phillies (just barely cuz Harper is still good-not-great) and Brewers wild cards. Dodgers win NL

Astros win WS

well sounds like 2020 will be very different as a lot of the propsals are going to be agreed to starting in 2020. 26 man rosters, 28 for September, 3 batter requirement for pitchers, going to guess 15 day dl for pitchers(haven't seen confirmation for that yet but do expect that to be a part of it), Will be interesting to see what else has been agreed on.

I don't like adding more rules but have to admit it's probably ok if we don't have to sit around watching LOOGYs come in and out. Also looks like they'll put off the pitch clock for at least a couple of years to see how this works on game time. It doesn't look like it's on the list (yet) but I'll be pissed if they try to eliminate shifts.

(03-06-2019 12:19 PM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  I don't like adding more rules but have to admit it's probably ok if we don't have to sit around watching LOOGYs come in and out. Also looks like they'll put off the pitch clock for at least a couple of years to see how this works on game time. It doesn't look like it's on the list (yet) but I'll be pissed if they try to eliminate shifts.

I do not like the idea of a clock, and outlawing shifts is flat out dumb. Hitters need to learn to de the field and/or bunt.


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Picks for this year:
AL. Houston, Minnesota and Boston win divisions. Yankees and Indians are wild cards.

NL: LA, St. Louis and Washington win divisions. Rockies and Braves are wild cards.

Houston wins it all.


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watching a bit of spring training baseball. Rich Hill looks nasty tonight.... his curve ball looking extremely sharp. 4 k's in 2.2 innings.

(03-04-2019 01:17 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  NL is gonna be nuts this year. PECOTA projections have only 4 teams in the NL with less than 80 wins, and two of 'em are at 79. They predict teams with 86, 85, and 84 wins will miss the playoffs. The AL projections, while not as deep, have the division winners at 96, 97, and 98 wins (only one NL team is predicted to exceed 90 wins - LA at 93). For the WS anyway, the deck is stacked against the NL once again.

(Not so) crazy prediction: San Diego will call up Fernando Tatis Jr. shortly after the start of the season (only two more weeks in the minors will delay FA for another year) and he'll contribute to SD having a NL top 5 offense. Unfortunately, SD will have NL bottom 3 starting pitching. They'll try to bring someone in before the deadline but will still fall short.

AL: Yankees, Indians, Astros division winners; Rays and Angels (home town pick - I don't really believe this) wild cards. Astros win AL

NL: Nats, Cards, Dodgers division winners; Phillies (just barely cuz Harper is still good-not-great) and Brewers wild cards. Dodgers win NL

Astros win WS

cubs last in the central?

(03-07-2019 08:43 AM)Lush Wrote:  

(03-04-2019 01:17 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  NL is gonna be nuts this year. PECOTA projections have only 4 teams in the NL with less than 80 wins, and two of 'em are at 79. They predict teams with 86, 85, and 84 wins will miss the playoffs. The AL projections, while not as deep, have the division winners at 96, 97, and 98 wins (only one NL team is predicted to exceed 90 wins - LA at 93). For the WS anyway, the deck is stacked against the NL once again.

(Not so) crazy prediction: San Diego will call up Fernando Tatis Jr. shortly after the start of the season (only two more weeks in the minors will delay FA for another year) and he'll contribute to SD having a NL top 5 offense. Unfortunately, SD will have NL bottom 3 starting pitching. They'll try to bring someone in before the deadline but will still fall short.

AL: Yankees, Indians, Astros division winners; Rays and Angels (home town pick - I don't really believe this) wild cards. Astros win AL

NL: Nats, Cards, Dodgers division winners; Phillies (just barely cuz Harper is still good-not-great) and Brewers wild cards. Dodgers win NL

Astros win WS

cubs last in the central?

In addition to the obvious caveats about these projections -- they can't account for injuries, or for good/bad managerial decisions, or for a team that goes on a losing streak just going into a big tailspin -- the margin of error in any data-based projection is large enough that they're really saying that any teams that are within 2-5 projected wins of each other are essentially even.

Which means that they project the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates to be pretty much the same. The projections are more solid when there is a huge margin between teams, eg when picking the Indians, Astros, and Dodgers in their divisions.

(03-07-2019 11:33 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 08:43 AM)Lush Wrote:  cubs last in the central?

In addition to the obvious caveats about these projections -- they can't account for injuries, or for good/bad managerial decisions, or for a team that goes on a losing streak just going into a big tailspin -- the margin of error in any data-based projection is large enough that they're really saying that any teams that are within 2-5 projected wins of each other are essentially even.

Which means that they project the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates to be pretty much the same. The projections are more solid when there is a huge margin between teams, eg when picking the Indians, Astros, and Dodgers in their divisions.

What Wedge said. But in the details, here's why: The projections are betting that the pitching staff is going to decline - probably because of age? Lester and Hamels are in their age 35 season. Prediction is that Cubs will be in the bottom tier for pitching. Also, defense is projected to be among the league's worst. I'm honestly not sure why this would be, as they are returning several plus defenders. So there's another thing: This is just one projection system, and they're pretty good but still miss in a number of places. PECOTA projections from just before the start of 2018.

(03-06-2019 12:37 PM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  Picks for this year:
AL. Houston, Minnesota and Boston win divisions. Yankees and Indians are wild cards.

NL: LA, St. Louis and Washington win divisions. Rockies and Braves are wild cards.

Houston wins it all.

That sounds close. I'll concur except for the 'Stros part.

(03-07-2019 11:33 AM)Wedge Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 08:43 AM)Lush Wrote:  

(03-04-2019 01:17 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  NL is gonna be nuts this year. PECOTA projections have only 4 teams in the NL with less than 80 wins, and two of 'em are at 79. They predict teams with 86, 85, and 84 wins will miss the playoffs. The AL projections, while not as deep, have the division winners at 96, 97, and 98 wins (only one NL team is predicted to exceed 90 wins - LA at 93). For the WS anyway, the deck is stacked against the NL once again.

(Not so) crazy prediction: San Diego will call up Fernando Tatis Jr. shortly after the start of the season (only two more weeks in the minors will delay FA for another year) and he'll contribute to SD having a NL top 5 offense. Unfortunately, SD will have NL bottom 3 starting pitching. They'll try to bring someone in before the deadline but will still fall short.

AL: Yankees, Indians, Astros division winners; Rays and Angels (home town pick - I don't really believe this) wild cards. Astros win AL

NL: Nats, Cards, Dodgers division winners; Phillies (just barely cuz Harper is still good-not-great) and Brewers wild cards. Dodgers win NL

Astros win WS

cubs last in the central?

In addition to the obvious caveats about these projections -- they can't account for injuries, or for good/bad managerial decisions, or for a team that goes on a losing streak just going into a big tailspin -- the margin of error in any data-based projection is large enough that they're really saying that any teams that are within 2-5 projected wins of each other are essentially even.

Which means that they project the Cubs, Reds, and Pirates to be pretty much the same. The projections are more solid when there is a huge margin between teams, eg when picking the Indians, Astros, and Dodgers in their divisions.

Was watching MLB, Sean Casey picked Rockies to win west And a Couple of others agreed. They have 3 frontline starters and the bullpen should be better. Murphy will help and Dahl should roll this year. I do think they will make Dodgers earn it.

Are those Pekota ratings from last year? Because those don’t look good at all. No way do the Yankees win by that far, same with Cleveland. The D backs and Giants are rebuilding and will finish 4-5.


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AL East: Yankees
AL Central: Indians
AL West: Astros
WC: Rays/Red Sox (Sox win)
ALDS: Yankees over Sox
ALDS: Astros over Indians
ALCS: Yankees over Astros

NL East: Nationals
NL Central: Cardinals
NL West: Dodgers
WC: Rockies/Cubs
NLDS: Cubs over Cardinals
NLDS: Nats over Dodgers
NLCS: Nats over Cubs

World Series: Yankees over Nats

NL MVP: Max Scherzer (fWAR 6.8)
NL Cy Young: Scherzer

AL MVP: Mookie Betts (fWAR 9.1)
AL Cy Young: Trevor Bauer (fWAR 6.0)

Bottom 4 teams NL: Marlins, Reds, Padres, Giants
Bottom 4 teams AL: Orioles, Royals, Rangers, Tigers

Just saw the new Marlins logo for the first time. An improvement over what they had...

Needs more color in it, if the wording or fish were not black, would look better.


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It's going to be tough for the Braves this season with all the added firepower on the other teams...but it will still be a lot of fun to watch the Braves again this year:



linky: Braves offense puts potential on full display

sounds like there is an agreement in place with MLB and the players on rules changes... No details really yet- but for 2019 what is the biggest thing is there will be only the July 31 trade deadline. No August trades with waivers any longer....

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26259...e-deadline

Quote:A single trade deadline and an All-Star Game Election Day will be implemented in 2019 -- and roster expansion will happen in 2020 -- as part of a deal Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association are set to announce Thursday, sources familiar with the agreement told ESPN.

Given everything they were discussing earlier, maybe what's most important is what they didn't agree to implement: No pitch clock, no shift restrictions, no three-batter minimum for pitchers, no universal DH.

(03-13-2019 11:29 PM)Wedge Wrote:  http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26259...e-deadline

Quote:A single trade deadline and an All-Star Game Election Day will be implemented in 2019 -- and roster expansion will happen in 2020 -- as part of a deal Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association are set to announce Thursday, sources familiar with the agreement told ESPN.

Given everything they were discussing earlier, maybe what's most important is what they didn't agree to implement: No pitch clock, no shift restrictions, no three-batter minimum for pitchers, no universal DH.

I don’t mind the three batter minimum, but the rest of those need to be flushed.


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(03-13-2019 11:29 PM)Wedge Wrote:  http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/26259...e-deadline

Quote:A single trade deadline and an All-Star Game Election Day will be implemented in 2019 -- and roster expansion will happen in 2020 -- as part of a deal Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association are set to announce Thursday, sources familiar with the agreement told ESPN.

Given everything they were discussing earlier, maybe what's most important is what they didn't agree to implement: No pitch clock, no shift restrictions, no three-batter minimum for pitchers, no universal DH.

The 3 batter minimum will be in place for 2020.

No word yet on the injured list and if that's back to 15 days for pitchers.