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stever20 Online
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Post: #1861
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
how lol is it that a Baltimore Oriole hits the homer that sets the single season MLB record tonight.....
09-11-2019 08:29 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #1862
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
so updating the tracker thru last night-
de Grom 68.6 Saturday 9-8 2.70 183 IP 231 K's
Scherzer 64.9 tomorrow 10-5 2.56 154.2 IP 216 K's
Ryu 63.0 Saturday 12-5 2.45 161.2 IP 142 K's
Strasburg 61.4 Monday 17-6 3.49 191 IP 229 K's
Gray 59.8 Monday 10-7 2.80 163.2 IP 190 K's
Castillo 59.6 tomorrow 14-6 3.21 173.2 IP 208 K's
Corbin 58.8 tonight 11-7 3.16 179.2 IP 210 K's
Buehler 58.3 Sunday 13-3 3.14 166.1 IP 201 K's
Flaherty 57.8 Saturday 10-7 2.99 168.1 IP 196 K's

you figure- guys that start tonight, tomorrow have a very good shot of 3 more starts after this one(though last one might not due to playoff timing). After that- it's only 2 starts left after this start.
09-12-2019 07:39 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #1863
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
it's funny- the injury to Yelich- don't know how big that's gonna be really. Their schedule is easiest in the NL(after this weekend vs Cards- all losing teams). For a team that hits homers- the last 2 weeks they play all 13 games in 3 of the 5 best homer hitting parks in the majors(Milwaukee, Cincy, Colorado).
09-12-2019 08:57 AM
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flyingswoosh Offline
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Post: #1864
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
(09-12-2019 08:57 AM)stever20 Wrote:  it's funny- the injury to Yelich- don't know how big that's gonna be really. Their schedule is easiest in the NL(after this weekend vs Cards- all losing teams). For a team that hits homers- the last 2 weeks they play all 13 games in 3 of the 5 best homer hitting parks in the majors(Milwaukee, Cincy, Colorado).

I'm going to imagine it'll be pretty big, as he's a 7.7 fWAR player and the focal point of that lineup. Maybe the democratization that has come with the increase in HR will offset his loss in the short term, but I'm willing to bet the Mets pass them. I imagine you do not want to see the Mets in the WC game, especially if it's Degrom.
09-12-2019 10:04 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #1865
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
(09-12-2019 10:04 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(09-12-2019 08:57 AM)stever20 Wrote:  it's funny- the injury to Yelich- don't know how big that's gonna be really. Their schedule is easiest in the NL(after this weekend vs Cards- all losing teams). For a team that hits homers- the last 2 weeks they play all 13 games in 3 of the 5 best homer hitting parks in the majors(Milwaukee, Cincy, Colorado).

I'm going to imagine it'll be pretty big, as he's a 7.7 fWAR player and the focal point of that lineup. Maybe the democratization that has come with the increase in HR will offset his loss in the short term, but I'm willing to bet the Mets pass them. I imagine you do not want to see the Mets in the WC game, especially if it's Degrom.

if the Brewers schedule were tougher I'd agree with you. But it's really soft. This weekend huge IMO. Brewers get final 3 tough games with the Cards. Mets get Dodgers(with Dodgers starting all 3 top pitchers). Brewers may exit this weekend up 3 on the Mets with only 13 to go. With the Brewers easy schedule, it's tough to see them going anything less than 8-5. If they're 3 up on the Mets- Mets would have to go 11-2 to just tie them.
09-12-2019 10:10 AM
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IWokeUpLikeThis Offline
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Post: #1866
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
[Image: 774899_49f363e03569f4032a82d9482e81b58f_...OXJYGYDADA]
09-12-2019 10:14 AM
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Post: #1867
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
and the thing is the Brewers with Yelich out of the lineup are now 10-5 scoring more per game than when he's in the lineup. Last 2 games(remember he got hurt scoreless 1st inning) they've scored 11 runs. You say, it's just the Marlins. Well rest of the way they see some of the worst pitching in the NL- and all in hitters parks.
09-12-2019 10:14 AM
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Post: #1868
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
(09-12-2019 10:14 AM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  [Image: 774899_49f363e03569f4032a82d9482e81b58f_...OXJYGYDADA]

yep. it's now 1996-2020 though(that was 2 days ago).
09-12-2019 10:15 AM
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Post: #1869
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
also, with the Brewers if their pitching can continue to do as well as they've done(3.36 ERA)- they're going to be fine....

Also, Hader is back and badder than ever. Since that crazy 15-14 game- where he blew the save and proceded to load the bases- but then after a loud(and I do mean loud) foul ball to Trea Turner, he strikes out the side- he's thrown 10.1 innings. 3 hits, 1 walk. 0 runs. 18 k's. 0.00 ERA obviously, but a 0.01 FIP.

I'll be honest, I'd probably prefer the Mets over the Brewers because in a 1 game situation, do you want to deal with Hader for 3 innings late? I sure as hell don't.
09-12-2019 10:22 AM
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Post: #1870
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
(09-12-2019 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  also, with the Brewers if their pitching can continue to do as well as they've done(3.36 ERA)- they're going to be fine....

Also, Hader is back and badder than ever. Since that crazy 15-14 game- where he blew the save and proceded to load the bases- but then after a loud(and I do mean loud) foul ball to Trea Turner, he strikes out the side- he's thrown 10.1 innings. 3 hits, 1 walk. 0 runs. 18 k's. 0.00 ERA obviously, but a 0.01 FIP.

I'll be honest, I'd probably prefer the Mets over the Brewers because in a 1 game situation, do you want to deal with Hader for 3 innings late? I sure as hell don't.

Or 7 innings of degrom early, plus 2 innings of Mets pen late?
09-12-2019 10:55 AM
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Post: #1871
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
(09-12-2019 10:55 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(09-12-2019 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  also, with the Brewers if their pitching can continue to do as well as they've done(3.36 ERA)- they're going to be fine....

Also, Hader is back and badder than ever. Since that crazy 15-14 game- where he blew the save and proceded to load the bases- but then after a loud(and I do mean loud) foul ball to Trea Turner, he strikes out the side- he's thrown 10.1 innings. 3 hits, 1 walk. 0 runs. 18 k's. 0.00 ERA obviously, but a 0.01 FIP.

I'll be honest, I'd probably prefer the Mets over the Brewers because in a 1 game situation, do you want to deal with Hader for 3 innings late? I sure as hell don't.

Or 7 innings of degrom early, plus 2 innings of Mets pen late?

I don't think the Mets get there first off. 2 games back with 17 to go. Could be 3 back with 13 to go after this weekend. With Brewers having no tough opponents left.

And yeah, I think i'd take my chances with that Mets pen.

*- of course I'm rooting for a tie so deGrom has to pitch that play-in game and Nats get best of BOTH worlds!
(This post was last modified: 09-12-2019 11:11 AM by stever20.)
09-12-2019 11:04 AM
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Post: #1872
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
(09-12-2019 10:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and the thing is the Brewers with Yelich out of the lineup are now 10-5 scoring more per game than when he's in the lineup. Last 2 games(remember he got hurt scoreless 1st inning) they've scored 11 runs. You say, it's just the Marlins. Well rest of the way they see some of the worst pitching in the NL- and all in hitters parks.

That dataset is so small we have to call it an anecdote. Yelich is such a huge part of their offense. Grandal, at 5.0 fWAR (much to my surprise! - looks like the one year contract decision will pay off) is their #2, and Moustakas is way down at 2.0 and the remainder of the team below average for MLB. Mets are only 2 games back in loss column so Brewers losing all that WAR definitely creates an opening for Mets to advance.
09-12-2019 11:15 AM
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Post: #1873
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
(09-12-2019 11:15 AM)Brookes Owl Wrote:  
(09-12-2019 10:14 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and the thing is the Brewers with Yelich out of the lineup are now 10-5 scoring more per game than when he's in the lineup. Last 2 games(remember he got hurt scoreless 1st inning) they've scored 11 runs. You say, it's just the Marlins. Well rest of the way they see some of the worst pitching in the NL- and all in hitters parks.

That dataset is so small we have to call it an anecdote. Yelich is such a huge part of their offense. Grandal, at 5.0 fWAR (much to my surprise! - looks like the one year contract decision will pay off) is their #2, and Moustakas is way down at 2.0 and the remainder of the team below average for MLB. Mets are only 2 games back in loss column so Brewers losing all that WAR definitely creates an opening for Mets to advance.

but the Brewers pitching isn't doing poorly- got a sub 3.5 ERA last 3 weeks or so. And their schedule is the easiest in the NL, and playing all bad pitching teams in good hitting parks.
09-12-2019 11:17 AM
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Post: #1874
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
also, everyone says that Yelich is a loss. For the 17 games his fWAR would be what maybe 0.7?

Also, you're saying that whoever replaces him is a 0.0. The guy who took his place last 2 games was 2-8 with a double and homer. Sorry but don't think that's a replacement level situation there.
09-12-2019 11:25 AM
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Post: #1875
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
(09-12-2019 11:25 AM)stever20 Wrote:  also, everyone says that Yelich is a loss. For the 17 games his fWAR would be what maybe 0.7?

Also, you're saying that whoever replaces him is a 0.0. The guy who took his place last 2 games was 2-8 with a double and homer. Sorry but don't think that's a replacement level situation there.

Perhaps this is above my pay grade, but is WAR something that we can apply to wins and losses for that small of a sample? The question is, what kind of an effect will this have on the Brewers offense?
09-12-2019 11:54 AM
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Post: #1876
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
(09-12-2019 11:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(09-12-2019 10:55 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(09-12-2019 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  also, with the Brewers if their pitching can continue to do as well as they've done(3.36 ERA)- they're going to be fine....

Also, Hader is back and badder than ever. Since that crazy 15-14 game- where he blew the save and proceded to load the bases- but then after a loud(and I do mean loud) foul ball to Trea Turner, he strikes out the side- he's thrown 10.1 innings. 3 hits, 1 walk. 0 runs. 18 k's. 0.00 ERA obviously, but a 0.01 FIP.

I'll be honest, I'd probably prefer the Mets over the Brewers because in a 1 game situation, do you want to deal with Hader for 3 innings late? I sure as hell don't.

Or 7 innings of degrom early, plus 2 innings of Mets pen late?

I don't think the Mets get there first off. 2 games back with 17 to go. Could be 3 back with 13 to go after this weekend. With Brewers having no tough opponents left.

And yeah, I think i'd take my chances with that Mets pen.

*- of course I'm rooting for a tie so deGrom has to pitch that play-in game and Nats get best of BOTH worlds!

Or it could be 2 back with 13 to go with the Mets getting the Rockies, Reds and Marlins before facing a Braves team that at that point, might no longer have anything to play for.
09-12-2019 11:55 AM
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Post: #1877
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
(09-12-2019 11:54 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(09-12-2019 11:25 AM)stever20 Wrote:  also, everyone says that Yelich is a loss. For the 17 games his fWAR would be what maybe 0.7?

Also, you're saying that whoever replaces him is a 0.0. The guy who took his place last 2 games was 2-8 with a double and homer. Sorry but don't think that's a replacement level situation there.

Perhaps this is above my pay grade, but is WAR something that we can apply to wins and losses for that small of a sample? The question is, what kind of an effect will this have on the Brewers offense?

yeah that's the thing. I'd look at future schedule a lot more as well with it being so soft. They're gonna score runs with the pitching they're facing. Maybe instead of getting 8 they'll get 6.
09-12-2019 11:57 AM
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Post: #1878
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
(09-12-2019 11:55 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(09-12-2019 11:04 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(09-12-2019 10:55 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(09-12-2019 10:22 AM)stever20 Wrote:  also, with the Brewers if their pitching can continue to do as well as they've done(3.36 ERA)- they're going to be fine....

Also, Hader is back and badder than ever. Since that crazy 15-14 game- where he blew the save and proceded to load the bases- but then after a loud(and I do mean loud) foul ball to Trea Turner, he strikes out the side- he's thrown 10.1 innings. 3 hits, 1 walk. 0 runs. 18 k's. 0.00 ERA obviously, but a 0.01 FIP.

I'll be honest, I'd probably prefer the Mets over the Brewers because in a 1 game situation, do you want to deal with Hader for 3 innings late? I sure as hell don't.

Or 7 innings of degrom early, plus 2 innings of Mets pen late?

I don't think the Mets get there first off. 2 games back with 17 to go. Could be 3 back with 13 to go after this weekend. With Brewers having no tough opponents left.

And yeah, I think i'd take my chances with that Mets pen.

*- of course I'm rooting for a tie so deGrom has to pitch that play-in game and Nats get best of BOTH worlds!

Or it could be 2 back with 13 to go with the Mets getting the Rockies, Reds and Marlins before facing a Braves team that at that point, might no longer have anything to play for.

True. Although Brewers have Padres, Pirates, Reds, and Rockies- none of which have anything to play for either.
09-12-2019 11:59 AM
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Post: #1879
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
(09-12-2019 11:54 AM)flyingswoosh Wrote:  
(09-12-2019 11:25 AM)stever20 Wrote:  also, everyone says that Yelich is a loss. For the 17 games his fWAR would be what maybe 0.7?

Also, you're saying that whoever replaces him is a 0.0. The guy who took his place last 2 games was 2-8 with a double and homer. Sorry but don't think that's a replacement level situation there.

Perhaps this is above my pay grade, but is WAR something that we can apply to wins and losses for that small of a sample? The question is, what kind of an effect will this have on the Brewers offense?

I think you *can* apply it (basically the same way PECOTA works) but I think the sample size is too small and too subject to variation to be very helpful. I only throw the numbers out to emphasize the magnitude of offense lost.
09-12-2019 12:00 PM
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Post: #1880
RE: 2019 MLB Thread
Mets and Brewers playing afternoon games. Mets up 1-0 on Dbacks and Brewers tied 1-1 with Marlins. I do think we can all agree that today's game is probably a must win for the Mets.
09-12-2019 12:54 PM
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