(03-05-2019 08:35 PM)george14 Wrote:  

(03-05-2019 02:12 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  I'm gonna be honest... I don't think CMU is that good. They are the smallest team in the league. The only teams I'd rather play more are Ohio and WMU. I've got NIU tonight.

CMU was without Montgomery, one of our better players against Toledo. Also without him tonight.

And NIU wins. Not surprised. MAC WEST BANNER for Toledo. #irrelevant

(03-03-2019 10:58 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(03-03-2019 07:55 AM)emu steve Wrote:  Right about EMU. Lost to both AKR & MIA.

KSU loses final 2.
CMU loses final 2.
EMU wins final 2.
Your 4 seed EMU at 10-8....

Not sure this is correct.

I belive if EMU wins out, CMU loses out and Kent SPLITS, emu holds the tie breaker over Kent.

Based on intra-division record.

Intra-division records? They’re in different divisions. That’s now a tie-breaker?

Final projections , let the post season begin!


#1 Buffalo 16-2 vs. #9 Ball State 7-11/#8 Miami 7-11
#2 Toledo 13-5 vs #10 Northern Illinois 7-11/#7 Akron 8-10
#3 Bowling Green 12-6 vs #11 Ohio 6-12/#6 Eastern Michigan 9-9
#4 Kent State 11-7 vs #12 Western Michigan 2-16/#5 Central Michigan 10-8

(03-06-2019 12:50 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Final projections , let the post season begin!


#1 Buffalo 16-2 vs. #9 Ball State 7-11/#8 Miami 7-11
#2 Toledo 13-5 vs #10 Northern Illinois 7-11/#7 Akron 8-10
#3 Bowling Green 12-6 vs #11 Ohio 6-12/#6 Eastern Michigan 9-9
#4 Kent State 11-7 vs #12 Western Michigan 2-16/#5 Central Michigan 10-8

As a Toledo fan, and who I think we are best/worst against, this is an absolutely perfect bracket.

(03-05-2019 10:16 AM)T4C8 Wrote:  I'd put the house on Buffalo -12 after that boat race in Buffalo a couple weeks ago.

Let me know when I get the keys!!!

(03-06-2019 12:50 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Final projections , let the post season begin!


#1 Buffalo 16-2 vs. #9 Ball State 7-11/#8 Miami 7-11
#2 Toledo 13-5 vs #10 Northern Illinois 7-11/#7 Akron 8-10
#3 Bowling Green 12-6 vs #11 Ohio 6-12/#6 Eastern Michigan 9-9
#4 Kent State 11-7 vs #12 Western Michigan 2-16/#5 Central Michigan 10-8

As an EMU fan I like Ohio, BG, TOL, and UB.

Ohio is weak. BG is slumpingg. We do well vs TOL.

(03-06-2019 02:32 PM)emu steve Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 12:50 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Final projections , let the post season begin!


#1 Buffalo 16-2 vs. #9 Ball State 7-11/#8 Miami 7-11
#2 Toledo 13-5 vs #10 Northern Illinois 7-11/#7 Akron 8-10
#3 Bowling Green 12-6 vs #11 Ohio 6-12/#6 Eastern Michigan 9-9
#4 Kent State 11-7 vs #12 Western Michigan 2-16/#5 Central Michigan 10-8

As an EMU fan I like Ohio, BG, TOL, and UB.

Ohio is weak. BG is slumpingg. We do well vs TOL.

???

(03-06-2019 03:12 PM)bobcat_backer Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 02:32 PM)emu steve Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 12:50 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Final projections , let the post season begin!


#1 Buffalo 16-2 vs. #9 Ball State 7-11/#8 Miami 7-11
#2 Toledo 13-5 vs #10 Northern Illinois 7-11/#7 Akron 8-10
#3 Bowling Green 12-6 vs #11 Ohio 6-12/#6 Eastern Michigan 9-9
#4 Kent State 11-7 vs #12 Western Michigan 2-16/#5 Central Michigan 10-8

As an EMU fan I like Ohio, BG, TOL, and UB.

Ohio is weak. BG is slumpingg. We do well vs TOL.

???

I'd rather play Ohio than Akron or Miami again, so I'm with Steve on that one. But anyone in this conference can beat us (badly) at any time, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if you took us out on our home floor.

I'll disagree with Steve in wanting to play BG though. Michael Huger has owned the 2-3 zone...I don't think we've beaten the Falcons since he started coaching. Not a game I would look forward to, if that's how the seedings shake out.

(03-06-2019 11:10 AM)T4C8 Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 12:50 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Final projections , let the post season begin!


#1 Buffalo 16-2 vs. #9 Ball State 7-11/#8 Miami 7-11
#2 Toledo 13-5 vs #10 Northern Illinois 7-11/#7 Akron 8-10
#3 Bowling Green 12-6 vs #11 Ohio 6-12/#6 Eastern Michigan 9-9
#4 Kent State 11-7 vs #12 Western Michigan 2-16/#5 Central Michigan 10-8

As a Toledo fan, and who I think we are best/worst against, this is an absolutely perfect bracket.

I take this back. It will be perfect if EMU moves up to 5 and CMU to 6. But for that to happen Toledo has to lose to EMU. Which I don't want

The college insider (mid major) poll as of yesterday:
UB 3
UT 18
BG, KSU, CMU with votes.
UCI is 6th, and Toledo beat them by 9 on a neutral floor. They also play in a very bad league where teams average in the 270 range... Weird.

(03-05-2019 11:26 PM)axeme Wrote:  Intra-division records? They’re in different divisions. That’s now a tie-breaker?

Don't know if its changed, but the Division record was only used to determine a Division Champion. Otherwise it was skipped.


EDIT: The most recent Tie breaker procedures I could find are from 2015, and they still list it as a Division Champ tie breaker only.

https://getsomemaction.com/sports/2015/3...50307.aspx

(03-06-2019 03:22 PM)EagleSam Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 03:12 PM)bobcat_backer Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 02:32 PM)emu steve Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 12:50 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Final projections , let the post season begin!


#1 Buffalo 16-2 vs. #9 Ball State 7-11/#8 Miami 7-11
#2 Toledo 13-5 vs #10 Northern Illinois 7-11/#7 Akron 8-10
#3 Bowling Green 12-6 vs #11 Ohio 6-12/#6 Eastern Michigan 9-9
#4 Kent State 11-7 vs #12 Western Michigan 2-16/#5 Central Michigan 10-8

As an EMU fan I like Ohio, BG, TOL, and UB.

Ohio is weak. BG is slumpingg. We do well vs TOL.

???

I'd rather play Ohio than Akron or Miami again, so I'm with Steve on that one. But anyone in this conference can beat us (badly) at any time, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if you took us out on our home floor.

I'll disagree with Steve in wanting to play BG though. Michael Huger has owned the 2-3 zone...I don't think we've beaten the Falcons since he started coaching. Not a game I would look forward to, if that's how the seedings shake out.

The past 3 years under Murphy, the Eagles are the most baffling team I have ever seen in college basketball. I have no idea how to evaluate them, how to predict them, anything.

(03-06-2019 11:10 AM)T4C8 Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 12:50 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Final projections , let the post season begin!


#1 Buffalo 16-2 vs. #9 Ball State 7-11/#8 Miami 7-11
#2 Toledo 13-5 vs #10 Northern Illinois 7-11/#7 Akron 8-10
#3 Bowling Green 12-6 vs #11 Ohio 6-12/#6 Eastern Michigan 9-9
#4 Kent State 11-7 vs #12 Western Michigan 2-16/#5 Central Michigan 10-8

As a Toledo fan, and who I think we are best/worst against, this is an absolutely perfect bracket.

I agree. Right now I have Toledo at its highest percentage to win the MAC tourney that I have had all year long (22%), and I think thats because the projected bracket lines up favorably for them

(03-05-2019 11:26 PM)axeme Wrote:  Intra-division records? They’re in different divisions. That’s now a tie-breaker?

Sorry. Only if in the same division.

Is the next tie breaker record (percentage) of the two tied teams against the top three teams (UB, TOL, and BG)?

EMU lost 2 to UB, would have to win 2 vs TOL, and lost 1 to BG. 2 / 5 = 40%.

Kent? 1 / 5 = 20%.

(03-07-2019 01:33 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 11:10 AM)T4C8 Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 12:50 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Final projections , let the post season begin!


#1 Buffalo 16-2 vs. #9 Ball State 7-11/#8 Miami 7-11
#2 Toledo 13-5 vs #10 Northern Illinois 7-11/#7 Akron 8-10
#3 Bowling Green 12-6 vs #11 Ohio 6-12/#6 Eastern Michigan 9-9
#4 Kent State 11-7 vs #12 Western Michigan 2-16/#5 Central Michigan 10-8

As a Toledo fan, and who I think we are best/worst against, this is an absolutely perfect bracket.

I agree. Right now I have Toledo at its highest percentage to win the MAC tourney that I have had all year long (22%), and I think thats because the projected bracket lines up favorably for them

I'm not good at math but if Toledo plays three games against even opponents our percentage to win all three would be half of half of half... So 12.5%. what's your percentage for Toledo to beat UB? I'd have it at like 22%. That can't be the chance to win the league though unless we had 100% chance to win the first two. There is no one I am 80% certain we beat but WMU and Ohio. Most of the league feels like a 60-40% because of how deep it is.

(03-07-2019 11:36 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 01:33 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 11:10 AM)T4C8 Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 12:50 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Final projections , let the post season begin!


#1 Buffalo 16-2 vs. #9 Ball State 7-11/#8 Miami 7-11
#2 Toledo 13-5 vs #10 Northern Illinois 7-11/#7 Akron 8-10
#3 Bowling Green 12-6 vs #11 Ohio 6-12/#6 Eastern Michigan 9-9
#4 Kent State 11-7 vs #12 Western Michigan 2-16/#5 Central Michigan 10-8

As a Toledo fan, and who I think we are best/worst against, this is an absolutely perfect bracket.

I agree. Right now I have Toledo at its highest percentage to win the MAC tourney that I have had all year long (22%), and I think thats because the projected bracket lines up favorably for them

I'm not good at math but if Toledo plays three games against even opponents our percentage to win all three would be half of half of half... So 12.5%. what's your percentage for Toledo to beat UB? I'd have it at like 22%. That can't be the chance to win the league though unless we had 100% chance to win the first two. There is no one I am 80% certain we beat but WMU and Ohio. Most of the league feels like a 60-40% because of how deep it is.

Yes, if a team has a 50% chance of winning each of 3 games, the probability is .5 x .5 x .5. Or .125.

It is the same as flipping a coin 3 times and getting 3 heads.

(03-07-2019 08:52 PM)emu steve Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 11:36 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 01:33 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 11:10 AM)T4C8 Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 12:50 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Final projections , let the post season begin!


#1 Buffalo 16-2 vs. #9 Ball State 7-11/#8 Miami 7-11
#2 Toledo 13-5 vs #10 Northern Illinois 7-11/#7 Akron 8-10
#3 Bowling Green 12-6 vs #11 Ohio 6-12/#6 Eastern Michigan 9-9
#4 Kent State 11-7 vs #12 Western Michigan 2-16/#5 Central Michigan 10-8

As a Toledo fan, and who I think we are best/worst against, this is an absolutely perfect bracket.

I agree. Right now I have Toledo at its highest percentage to win the MAC tourney that I have had all year long (22%), and I think thats because the projected bracket lines up favorably for them

I'm not good at math but if Toledo plays three games against even opponents our percentage to win all three would be half of half of half... So 12.5%. what's your percentage for Toledo to beat UB? I'd have it at like 22%. That can't be the chance to win the league though unless we had 100% chance to win the first two. There is no one I am 80% certain we beat but WMU and Ohio. Most of the league feels like a 60-40% because of how deep it is.

Yes, if a team has a 50% chance of winning each of 3 games, the probability is .5 x .5 x .5. Or .125.

It is the same as flipping a coin 3 times and getting 3 heads.

He obviously has us heavily favored in the first two games which I disagree with. That or he is giving Toledo lots of credit in a possible game vs. UB.

(03-07-2019 09:11 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 08:52 PM)emu steve Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 11:36 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 01:33 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(03-06-2019 11:10 AM)T4C8 Wrote:  As a Toledo fan, and who I think we are best/worst against, this is an absolutely perfect bracket.

I agree. Right now I have Toledo at its highest percentage to win the MAC tourney that I have had all year long (22%), and I think thats because the projected bracket lines up favorably for them

I'm not good at math but if Toledo plays three games against even opponents our percentage to win all three would be half of half of half... So 12.5%. what's your percentage for Toledo to beat UB? I'd have it at like 22%. That can't be the chance to win the league though unless we had 100% chance to win the first two. There is no one I am 80% certain we beat but WMU and Ohio. Most of the league feels like a 60-40% because of how deep it is.

Yes, if a team has a 50% chance of winning each of 3 games, the probability is .5 x .5 x .5. Or .125.

It is the same as flipping a coin 3 times and getting 3 heads.

He obviously has us heavily favored in the first two games which I disagree with. That or he is giving Toledo lots of credit in a possible game vs. UB.

Correct. Here is how I break it down. Toledo a 2 seed, I look at the 10 vs 7. For the 10 and 7 team I calculate the probability of each winning that game. Let's say for example, it is 10 NIU vs 7 Akron. For Toledo's first game I use the rankings I have for each NIU and Akron and build an opponent for Toledo based on those probabilities. Taking NIU vs Akron right now for a game in Akron I get Akron with a 68% win probability. Then Toledo's opponent and probability to win their first game would be against a team built from taking the power rankings from a single opponent made up of 68% Akron and 32% NIU. Essentially I am creating a fake opponent, the Akron Huskies if you will. So it is hedging Toledo will play Akron in Round 2, but offering Toledo slightly higher odds than playing Akron straight up since the weaker NIU has a 32% chance to win. This process is repeated all the way to the finals. Here are the individual round by round percentages I have for Toledo right now:

Quarterfinal game: 83% to win
Semifinal game: 78% to win
Finals: 34% chance to win

The finals opponent using the above methodology would be heavily weighted to Buffalo obviously, but includes slim chances it is not Buffalo (currently have it 85% weighted to it being Buffalo)

Multiplying those individual game percentages above gives the 22%

The two major shortcomings of this are obvious:
1) Coming up with the initial power rankings to get the probabilities of individual games, obviously nothing is perfect and my rankings are flawed and
2) This idea really only has meaning if the brackets are set already. The calculation obviously comes way too hard for me to think about when you have to think about what are the chances NIU finishes as a 10 seed and Akron as a 7. For simplicity, one has to assume the seeding forecast is perfect (which it will be in 24 hours hah).

(03-08-2019 02:17 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 09:11 PM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 08:52 PM)emu steve Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 11:36 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 01:33 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  I agree. Right now I have Toledo at its highest percentage to win the MAC tourney that I have had all year long (22%), and I think thats because the projected bracket lines up favorably for them

I'm not good at math but if Toledo plays three games against even opponents our percentage to win all three would be half of half of half... So 12.5%. what's your percentage for Toledo to beat UB? I'd have it at like 22%. That can't be the chance to win the league though unless we had 100% chance to win the first two. There is no one I am 80% certain we beat but WMU and Ohio. Most of the league feels like a 60-40% because of how deep it is.

Yes, if a team has a 50% chance of winning each of 3 games, the probability is .5 x .5 x .5. Or .125.

It is the same as flipping a coin 3 times and getting 3 heads.

He obviously has us heavily favored in the first two games which I disagree with. That or he is giving Toledo lots of credit in a possible game vs. UB.

Correct. Here is how I break it down. Toledo a 2 seed, I look at the 10 vs 7. For the 10 and 7 team I calculate the probability of each winning that game. Let's say for example, it is 10 NIU vs 7 Akron. For Toledo's first game I use the rankings I have for each NIU and Akron and build an opponent for Toledo based on those probabilities. Taking NIU vs Akron right now for a game in Akron I get Akron with a 68% win probability. Then Toledo's opponent and probability to win their first game would be against a team built from taking the power rankings from a single opponent made up of 68% Akron and 32% NIU. Essentially I am creating a fake opponent, the Akron Huskies if you will. So it is hedging Toledo will play Akron in Round 2, but offering Toledo slightly higher odds than playing Akron straight up since the weaker NIU has a 32% chance to win. This process is repeated all the way to the finals. Here are the individual round by round percentages I have for Toledo right now:

Quarterfinal game: 83% to win
Semifinal game: 78% to win
Finals: 34% chance to win

The finals opponent using the above methodology would be heavily weighted to Buffalo obviously, but includes slim chances it is not Buffalo (currently have it 85% weighted to it being Buffalo)

Multiplying those individual game percentages above gives the 22%

The two major shortcomings of this are obvious:
1) Coming up with the initial power rankings to get the probabilities of individual games, obviously nothing is perfect and my rankings are flawed and
2) This idea really only has meaning if the brackets are set already. The calculation obviously comes way too hard for me to think about when you have to think about what are the chances NIU finishes as a 10 seed and Akron as a 7. For simplicity, one has to assume the seeding forecast is perfect (which it will be in 24 hours hah).

Akron almost had us at home. We pulled away with like a 9-2 run under a minute and a half to win by 10. They defended us better than any team in the league. NIU always plays us tough and uglied it up at Savage. I'd put win percentage no higher than 75%. Also 34% for UB is pretty high ha. Our average margin is 18 points against them.