We are down to the final weekend and our final home games of the year. We are playing the top 2 teams. Hofstra has been struggling of late which makes this game appear potentially winnable. To me this game will either go down to the wire with a chance to win or Hofstra puts a beatdown on the Dragons. However, my gut says with the top seed on the line they are going to come out inspired, JWF is likely to go for 40+ and we are going to get absolutely smoked.

Vegas spread: DU +6.5

HU- 94
DU- 72

I also really wish these last two games were switched. We could take our beating from NU and then with Hofstra having little to play for with top seed locked up and a short bench, that game would be very winnable. Even if NU is locked in as a 2nd seed and let off the gas some, I am not sure we beat them Saturday.

Hofstra uses their bench so little that even if they clinch the 1 seed tonight I don't think their minutes today and Saturday will change much all other things equal.

(02-28-2019 07:12 AM)dan10 Wrote:  We are down to the final weekend and our final home games of the year. We are playing the top 2 teams. Hofstra has been struggling of late which makes this game appear potentially winnable. To me this game will either go down to the wire with a chance to win or Hofstra puts a beatdown on the Dragons. However, my gut says with the top seed on the line they are going to come out inspired, JWF is likely to go for 40+ and we are going to get absolutely smoked.

Vegas spread: DU +6.5

HU- 94
DU- 72

I know it's just a prediction based on your gut feeling. But keep in mind that Drexel hasn't lost a CAA game this year by more than 18 points. Their only 20+ losses were against power conference teams. I will predict that the final will be much closer to the Vegas spread.

(02-28-2019 09:02 AM)EvanJ Wrote:  Hofstra uses their bench so little that even if they clinch the 1 seed tonight I don't think their minutes today and Saturday will change much all other things equal.

With nothing to play for except rest, you dont think Joe would play his main guys at severely reduced minutes and let the rest of his bench play the bulk (basically tanking the game)?

(02-28-2019 09:15 AM)J.B. Wrote:  I know it's just a prediction based on your gut feeling. But keep in mind that Drexel hasn't lost a CAA game this year by more than 18 points. Their only 20+ losses were against power conference teams. I will predict that the final will be much closer to the Vegas spread.

That is true, but we have been down that big to CAA teams this year, we have just made furious comebacks. Without Troy, I dont think a big comeback is possible with our current team if they get down big. For all of his flaws, he was a ball of energy and had a ridiculous ability to draw fouls which always helped in coming back, since he is an excellent FT shooter.

(02-28-2019 09:43 AM)dan10 Wrote:  

(02-28-2019 09:02 AM)EvanJ Wrote:  Hofstra uses their bench so little that even if they clinch the 1 seed tonight I don't think their minutes today and Saturday will change much all other things equal.

With nothing to play for except rest, you dont think Joe would play his main guys at severely reduced minutes and let the rest of his bench play the bulk (basically tanking the game)?

https://gohofstra.com/news/2019/2/24/men...title.aspx is Hofstra's preview titled "MBB: Hofstra Heads To Drexel Looking To Clinch Share Of Regular Season Title."

https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sites/h...game30.pdf is Hofstra's Game Notes.

Hofstra has used 12 players. Players 9 through 12 combined have played 2.8 percent of the minutes. Players 7 and 8 combined have played 12.0 percent of the minutes. Players 1 through 6 have played 85.1 percent of the minutes, with the sum being 99.9 percent due to rounding. In CAA games it's even more extreme, with Players 1 through 6 having played 90.1 percent of the minutes, had 94.6 percent of the field goal attempts, and had 95.1 percent of the points. Players 9 through 12 are a senior, a walk-on junior, a sophomore who played 261 minutes last season and 35 this season, and an academic sophomore in his first athletic season with 30 minutes. I'm not saying Hofstra shouldn't use these guys, but I don't think they will. Mihalich doesn't like using the bench much, and I'm talking about his whole time with Hofstra, not just this season. In his last two seasons at Niagara, he had Juan'ya Green, and Ameen Tanksley. When they were freshmen, the nine most used players played 99.0 percent of the minutes. When they were sophomores, the nine most used players played 97.0 percent of the minutes.

That does not answer my question. Has he ever been in a situation at Niagara where in the last game it was already clinched? Did he change his gameplan at all or did he keep with his normal strategy? Most know and understand he likes using a short bench, my question is if you win tonight does he use the end of the bench much more aka as much as they are conditioned for or does he still run out his normal lineup for 40 minutes?

Mihalich's last season at Niagara was 2012-2013. Niagara won the regular season title by one game over Loyola (Maryland) and Rider. All three of them won their last game. Assuming the three-way tiebreaker would have been head-to-head, making Niagara's last game a loss would have given Rider the 1 seed. In 2011-2012, Niagara was tied for sixth. Even if Mihalich coached Niagara when they clinched a regular season title before their last game, it was long enough ago that I wouldn't use it to predict the future. This is the first time Hofstra clinched the CAA 1 seed before their last game.

For the second consecutive game, Hofstra's opponent attempted a three at the buzzer to tie it. Demir scored 24, but missed both threes including the one at the buzzer to let Hofstra win 80-77. Both teams had a largest lead of 8. Hofstra led for 24:59, you led for 12:25, and it was tied for 2:36. After a slow start, John scored 20. He made 6 of 13 threes.
With 0:50 left, he made a three to go down 3. After Jalen Ray made two free throws with 0:47 left, Drexel used most of the shot clock before Butler's layup made it 76-73. Buie made 2 free throws with 0:18 left, and John made a three with 0:09 left to go down 78-76. Wright-Foreman, who scored 32, made 2 free throws with 0:08 left to go up 80-76, but then he made a mistake. He fouled Wynter in the act of shooting a three with 0:02 left. It was his first career foul out, and he had 3,278 career minutes before today. Wynter made the first, missed the second, and down 80-77 Drexel called their last timeout. He intentionally missed the third, and Jacquil Taylor knocked it out of bounds to give you a final chance with 1.2 seconds left. Butler scored 18, Wynter scored 15, and you only had four players score. I wonder if this is the first time you ever didn't have anybody score from 1 to 14. Juric, Washington, Doles, and Perry combined to shoot 0-for-9. Wynter had 8 assists and surprisingly led you in rebounds with 7. It was the first time in 13 games that he led you in rebounds. It was his second game with at least 15 points, 7 rebounds, and 8 assists. He had 22, 8, and 9 in the fifth game hosting Boston University. Demir shot field goals 9-for-13 and free throws 6-for-8. He had 5 rebounds, 4 assists, and was your best player IMO. Butler shot great also at 8-for-12, but had only 5 rebounds. Wright-Foreman scored 32, with 23 in the second half. He missed his first 5 field goals and starting 4-for-14. Starting with 15:58 left, he made 8 in a row before missing his last attempt to finish 12-for-23. He had only 3 rebounds and no assists. Desure Buie and Eli Pemberton scored 15 each. Buie had 2 of Hofstra's 4 assists. Hofstra had 23 fewer assists than their team record in Saturday's loss. I wonder if a team has ever lost and then won with at least 23 fewer assists in the win. Jalen Ray scored 10 and was Hofstra's only player other than Wright-Foreman to make a three. Wright-Foreman made 5 and Ray made 2. Jacquil Taylor had 6 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 blocks. Tareq Coburn scored 2, and Dan Dwyer and Stafford Trueheart went scoreless. Trueheart played as little as possible other than not playing as he played for 2 seconds after Wright-Foreman fouled out. Both teams made and attempted about the same amount of each type of shot. Both teams attempted 62 field goals, with Hofstra making 30 and you making 29. You had 5 more rebounds but 3 more turnovers. You had a much better assist/turnover of 17/8. Hofstra had only 5 turnovers. Starting with the game after Hofstra hosted you, Hofstra has had 5 or fewer turnovers 3 times in their last 15 games.

I decided on my Lineup of the Day, which has Wright-Foreman and Demir.

I know we lost, but I was very happy with this game. Glad my gut was wrong and it went the other way I called out. We actually looked good out there on offense. Our freshman can play some pretty good defense. I hate the phrase "they made tough shots" but JWF sure did. I thought we were defending them pretty well and they still made shots, so kudos to him and Hofstra for doing so. Our offense looks so good these last two games. We still are not shooting well but we are getting really good looks. Our passing and ball movement is very good. I am very encouraged, despite the loss. As this group continues to grow, next season could be a lot of fun, although we will still need someone to step into the shooters role that John currently has.

I don't think any Drexel fans were too disappointed with the effort, despite the outcome. JWF was on fire last night and he was making some ridiculous shots in the 2nd half. They fought the best team in the conference tooth and nail until the bitter end. I liked the play that was drawn up on the last play to let Demir take the last second shot. You have to figure that by the way that John was nailing shots, that Hofstra would put 4-5 guys on him, which they pretty much did. Demir was WIDE OPEN, and he usually makes that shot. It was nice to see them try something different even though that shot didn't go in.

I agree it was a very good look. My opinion on Ali is that if he is that open sure take the shot, but his value to the team is driving and playing down low. He has some nice moves down there that gives him a nice ability to finish at and around the rim. His quickness on his spin moves will give him an advantage over traditional bigs. Him shooting 3's is not what we need from him. We look like a much better team when he is involved but not taking 3's.

JWF and Trevor John are tied for tenth in CAA history for threes in a season with 98. The record of 122 will be hard to break, with JWF having a better chance if Hofstra wins more. The tie for second at 109 could be beaten by both of them. They're tied for second by a CAA player from a team north of D.C. behind Antoine Agudio's 100.

(03-01-2019 02:59 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  JWF and Trevor John are tied for tenth in CAA history for threes in a season with 98. The record of 122 will be hard to break, with JWF having a better chance if Hofstra wins more. The tie for second at 109 could be beaten by both of them. They're tied for second by a CAA player from a team north of D.C. behind Antoine Agudio's 100.

Even more impressive for John in that he did not really have a lot of history before being a 1 year player here, so to accomplish that on a new team and build new chemistry is amazing. Aguido brings back some fond memories. He did not seem to care for the DAC Pack hahaha