A statistics professor might use it in class to lecture on how there is so much naturally occurring variability in things like temperatures, FT percentages, etc. etc. and probably some variability can be random just like flipping a coin or rolling a die will not always produce expected outcomes even if done say 100 or 250 times. E.g., if a coin is flipped 100 times, one would expect heads approximately 50 times. Yet, it might come up 60 times or 38 times, but the more and more coin flips the closer to 50% heads one would expect.

Here is some 'weird' data on opponent's FT percentages (MAC games only):

https://getsomemaction.com/stats.aspx?pa...&conf=true (click on Team Stats, Free Throws).

Yet there is significant difference among the 12 MAC teams on "FT defense." How can that be? How does a team play "FT defense?"

Here is the data for the 2017 - 18 season:

https://getsomemaction.com/stats.aspx?pa...&conf=true

Opponents shot 'lights out' vs us from the FT line. As 9 of the 18 EMU games were at the Convo, that really suggests that the Convo is NOT a bad arena to shoot FTs.

Might add if someone studied say 5 years worth of FTs at each MAC arena (conference games only) we might see clues if any arena half tight or loose rims. With over a 1,000 FT at each arena over that time period, the FT% percentages should converge for all arena.

Here is a stat which makes PERFECT sense to me. Shooting the 3-ball very well is strongly correlated with a very good record.

https://getsomemaction.com/stats.aspx?pa...&conf=true (Click on Team Stats / 3-point FGs).

Teams which make the most 3-point FGs per game have the best MAC records... Easily. E.g., UB, TOL, BG.

I have always thought that our pace of play hurt us in terms of opposing FT%. I have no actual data to back it up, but it would make sense playing a team like us, who slows the game down and plays mostly half-court defense, would make free throw shooting easier. If you are playing a team with a more frenetic pace, that pushes the tempo offensively and plays full court defense, you'll probably have a harder time settling down to make 2 free throws.

These are college athletes, and free throws should be routine no matter what tempo you play. But I bet our "FT defense" would be better if we played Nolan Richardson's 40 Minutes of Hell instead of the 2-3 zone with a clock-draining offense.

(02-26-2019 03:32 PM)EagleSam Wrote:  I have always thought that our pace of play hurt us in terms of opposing FT%. I have no actual data to back it up, but it would make sense playing a team like us, who slows the game down and plays mostly half-court defense, would make free throw shooting easier. If you are playing a team with a more frenetic pace, that pushes the tempo offensively and plays full court defense, you'll probably have a harder time settling down to make 2 free throws.

These are college athletes, and free throws should be routine no matter what tempo you play. But I bet our "FT defense" would be better if we played Nolan Richardson's 40 Minutes of Hell instead of the 2-3 zone with a clock-draining offense.

EagleSam, the data doesn't support it.

We are in the middle of the pack of 'FT defense'. The team which is doing worst is Ohio.

Is it because of their arena? Their games haven't been close, no pressure? Something else?

one thing that is probably relevant is that we're one of the worst at shooting free throws and we don't get to play ourselves. think about strength of schedule. the worst team in any league has the hardest strength of schedule because they don't get to play the worst team (themselves). this is true for this statistic also. Ohio has the worst free throw percentage and they don't play themselves, so it makes sense that they have the worst FT defense.