Team A
Q1/2 record 6-5
Team B
Q1/2 record 8-5
Team C
Q1/2 record 2-2
Team D
Q1/2 record 8-1
Team F
Q1/2 record 9-10

Rank by their quadrant 1 and 2 record.

D, B, F, A, C... ha no E?

Is team C NMSU?

UCF Team A net 40
ASU Team B Net 62
NMSU Team C net 58
Nevada Team D net 18 (their record is based on Q2 b/c they haven't played a Q1 team)
Bama Team F Net 55

At-Large need to be top 50, since 20 one-bid conferences get in and a couple of those will be above the 50 line (e.g., Gonzaga). For NIT top 75, since a few pass on it. Obviously the committee will scrutinize roughly 40 to 60 deeply to get last 4 in and first 4 out (NIT #1 seeds).

I would want to know where schools like San Francisco, Utah State, Fresno State, Oregon State and Arizona State sit. These are the possible western at-large. Down year in general for the west.

(02-28-2019 01:40 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  At-Large need to be top 50, since 20 one-bid conferences get in and a couple of those will be above the 50 line (e.g., Gonzaga). For NIT top 75, since a few pass on it. Obviously the committee will scrutinize roughly 40 to 60 deeply to get last 4 in and first 4 out (NIT #1 seeds).

I would want to know where schools like San Francisco, Utah State, Fresno State, Oregon State and Arizona State sit. These are the possible western at-large. Down year in general for the west.

Utah State hosts Nevada this weekend... this is now Nevada's first Quad 1 game, and Utah State just moved into many people's brackets this last week.

There is almost no buzz about Oregon State's chances here in Portland. They'll probably have to pull out a shocker in Seattle (a week from today IIRC) and get all the way to the conference championship game. I'm not seeing it. At least they get Arizona State in Corvallis this weekend... ASU is a collection of interesting characters that is sometimes a VERY good team and sometimes, um, er, chuckle.

(If USU just moved up, you can imagine that Fresno isn't really a factor here. My wife, a Bulldog, isn't going to beat me up for saying that, either. Perhaps she should.)

Bald Ambition was saying that Oregon State is being under appreciated. the Pac-12 may be a dumpster fire, but the teams that win in the dumpster fire deserve some notice.

UW losing to Cal in a squeaker constitutes a terrible loss. The west desperately needs ASU and USU to get at-large. May be a stretch to get a 2nd at-large. (When UCLA and UofA are bad, the league suffers ... that would be like UNC and Duke not making the Tourney for the ACC -- UofA if it's incoming class sticks after the the coaching staf is tossed for scandal should jump right back to the top)

I see P12 with 2 bids, MWC with 2, nobody else. USF, BYU, OSU maybe one MWC school and another P12 school get NIT bids. they are going to have to make some noise there because the reputation of the west is taking a severe public beating.

Wins by USU over Fresno and ASU over Oregon State make both more likely to be at-large.

The West will need it. Although both are looking at 10 or 11 seeds (11 seeds play in). UW is looking at a 6 and Nevada are looking at 5 with only Gonzaga is looking at a 1 or 2 seed.

NMSU is probably a 13 seed. Whomever wins the Big Sky and Big West tournaments are looking at roughly 15 seeds. That is my read on where things stand for the West.

8 Bids for the West. The West has 22% of the US population, which says the over under should be 13 bids. Most of that is on the Pac-12, which should be sending 5 or 6 every year, and the WCC should have a 2nd most years, but this year the gaps is too large between Gonzaga and the pack for anyone else to emerge. So barring an upset in the WCC tournament that is where it stands.

(03-04-2019 06:41 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Wins by USU over Fresno and ASU over Oregon State make both more likely to be at-large.

The West will need it. Although both are looking at 10 or 11 seeds (11 seeds play in). UW is looking at a 6 and Nevada are looking at 5 with only Gonzaga is looking at a 1 or 2 seed.

NMSU is probably a 13 seed. Whomever wins the Big Sky and Big West tournaments are looking at roughly 15 seeds. That is my read on where things stand for the West.

8 Bids for the West. The West has 22% of the US population, which says the over under should be 13 bids. Most of that is on the Pac-12, which should be sending 5 or 6 every year, and the WCC should have a 2nd most years, but this year the gaps is too large between Gonzaga and the pack for anyone else to emerge. So barring an upset in the WCC tournament that is where it stands.

The west is weak this year and eight bids would be good. But you never know. The Big West and Big Sky are single bid conferences, as usual. The other four have shots at a 2nd bid:

1. Pac-12 - Could get two in if UW loses in the post-season tournament, although that loss to Cal really hurt.

2. WCC - Assuming Gonzaga wins the WCC Tournament and St. Mary's is the runner-up, the Gaels have a shot at an at-large bid. St. Mary's has a Net Ranking of 38, which should help.

3. MWC - I think Nevada is a lock and Utah State has done enough to probably get in as well. If someone other than these two win the MWC tournament, then Utah State is out.

4. WAC - A one bid conference, but if NMSU were to lose in the tournament championship game, they would be a long shot at an at-large bid. The stars would need to be aligned, but they do have a Net ranking of 47 and an RPI of 38. Any team in the top 50 has a shot at an at-large bid. In this scenario, if they did not make the cut, the loss at home to St. Mary's may come back to haunt NMSU.

Eight is not a bad guess. I think 7 to 9 is probably where it ends, so I will be optimistic and say 9, with two from the Pac-12, two from the MWC and two from the WCC (Gonzaga and St. Mary's).

(03-04-2019 10:44 AM)SoCalBobcat78 Wrote:  

(03-04-2019 06:41 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Wins by USU over Fresno and ASU over Oregon State make both more likely to be at-large.

The West will need it. Although both are looking at 10 or 11 seeds (11 seeds play in). UW is looking at a 6 and Nevada are looking at 5 with only Gonzaga is looking at a 1 or 2 seed.

NMSU is probably a 13 seed. Whomever wins the Big Sky and Big West tournaments are looking at roughly 15 seeds. That is my read on where things stand for the West.

8 Bids for the West. The West has 22% of the US population, which says the over under should be 13 bids. Most of that is on the Pac-12, which should be sending 5 or 6 every year, and the WCC should have a 2nd most years, but this year the gaps is too large between Gonzaga and the pack for anyone else to emerge. So barring an upset in the WCC tournament that is where it stands.

The west is weak this year and eight bids would be good. But you never know. The Big West and Big Sky are single bid conferences, as usual. The other four have shots at a 2nd bid:

1. Pac-12 - Could get two in if UW loses in the post-season tournament, although that loss to Cal really hurt.

2. WCC - Assuming Gonzaga wins the WCC Tournament and St. Mary's is the runner-up, the Gaels have a shot at an at-large bid. St. Mary's has a Net Ranking of 38, which should help.

3. MWC - I think Nevada is a lock and Utah State has done enough to probably get in as well. If someone other than these two win the MWC tournament, then Utah State is out.

4. WAC - A one bid conference, but if NMSU were to lose in the tournament championship game, they would be a long shot at an at-large bid. The stars would need to be aligned, but they do have a Net ranking of 47 and an RPI of 38. Any team in the top 50 has a shot at an at-large bid. In this scenario, if they did not make the cut, the loss at home to St. Mary's may come back to haunt NMSU.

Eight is not a bad guess. I think 7 to 9 is probably where it ends, so I will be optimistic and say 9, with two from the Pac-12, two from the MWC and two from the WCC (Gonzaga and St. Mary's).

Probably way too many stars need to be aligned for the WAC to be more than one bid regardless.

It gets me that, after Arizona State got crushed by Oregon and then beat Oregon State (in Eugene and Corvallis), they seem to be more in per the experts than they were prior.

As a Duck... I am baffled by myself. I'm half-expecting (1) a loss at Washington State tomorrow, never mind Washington, and (2) running the table in Vegas by being the current hottest team in the Pac-12. (Is that irony?) Which still isn't saying much, except that Francis Okoro suddenly stopped looking like someone who might fill a little space on defense and started looking like someone with post presence at both ends. In any event, things are that wide open.

Also a hot take... Utah State > St. Mary's and will be treated as such.

No WCC school, or for that matter mid-major, with 10 losses is getting an at-large into the Tournament. That kills every WCC school for at-large except Gonzaga.

The Pac-12 will get 2. Even in a down year they'll find a way to take a second school. Many other major programs have drifted into the 11+ loss category making them iffy. Ohio State looked like a lock in December, now they look like an NIT team if they can stay above .500. Same story elsewhere, e.g., I have the SEC at 9 bids a few weeks back, but now the consensus is 8. So a P12 school with fewer than 10 losses is very likely to get an at-large regardless.

I am standing on 8.

Washington, Arizona State, Nevada, Utah State, Gonzaga, New Mexico State, UC Irvine, Montana

The WAC, Big West and Big Sky are one bid regardless. The regular season winners will get NIT bids.

The only scenario's for a 9th are if either Gonzaga fails to win the WCC (odds are extremely low, I expect 20 pt blowouts), or if some school other than UW wins the P12 in close contest over ASU after ASU has an impressive first two games. On the flip side if USU looks bad in a MWC first round loss, you could be looking at 7 bids only. The somebody like UCLA getting hot and winning the P12 over an impressive ASU is the most likely of any scenario. UW is not lights out better, just they have been more clutch.

I do think the West will do better next year as both USC and UofA have strong classes coming in, and I expect UCLA will also get moving. That should get the P12 back to a solid 3 bids with a chance at 4. The shoe scandal hit the P12 harder than anyone else. If they get an alliance with the B12 that could also help add a bid through better OOC schedule. But this year is a disaster for the West.

(03-04-2019 06:41 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  4. WAC - A one bid conference, but if NMSU were to lose in the tournament championship game, they would be a long shot at an at-large bid. The stars would need to be aligned, but they do have a Net ranking of 47 and an RPI of 38. Any team in the top 50 has a shot at an at-large bid. In this scenario, if they did not make the cut, the loss at home to St. Mary's may come back to haunt NMSU.

I'm ignorant about the selection process, but isn't it sort of impossible for the St. Mary's game to make a difference? In your scenario NMSU is losing to UVU, GCU, or maybe even Seattle or UMKC. Seems like that loss would sour the committee a lot more than the St. Mary's game. And then there's the CBU upset.

(03-07-2019 03:55 PM)edinburger Wrote:  

(03-04-2019 06:41 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  4. WAC - A one bid conference, but if NMSU were to lose in the tournament championship game, they would be a long shot at an at-large bid. The stars would need to be aligned, but they do have a Net ranking of 47 and an RPI of 38. Any team in the top 50 has a shot at an at-large bid. In this scenario, if they did not make the cut, the loss at home to St. Mary's may come back to haunt NMSU.

I'm ignorant about the selection process, but isn't it sort of impossible for the St. Mary's game to make a difference? In your scenario NMSU is losing to UVU, GCU, or maybe even Seattle or UMKC. Seems like that loss would sour the committee a lot more than the St. Mary's game. And then there's the CBU upset.

I have not seen NMSU on any bubble watch site. It appears that a top 50 NET gets most teams onto the bubble, but our lack of quad 1/2 opportunities and results is keeping us off the bubble. It's almost as if quads matter more than the NET itself, even though quads are just a subset of the overall NET..

(03-07-2019 04:22 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 03:55 PM)edinburger Wrote:  

(03-04-2019 06:41 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  4. WAC - A one bid conference, but if NMSU were to lose in the tournament championship game, they would be a long shot at an at-large bid. The stars would need to be aligned, but they do have a Net ranking of 47 and an RPI of 38. Any team in the top 50 has a shot at an at-large bid. In this scenario, if they did not make the cut, the loss at home to St. Mary's may come back to haunt NMSU.

I'm ignorant about the selection process, but isn't it sort of impossible for the St. Mary's game to make a difference? In your scenario NMSU is losing to UVU, GCU, or maybe even Seattle or UMKC. Seems like that loss would sour the committee a lot more than the St. Mary's game. And then there's the CBU upset.

I have not seen NMSU on any bubble watch site. It appears that a top 50 NET gets most teams onto the bubble, but our lack of quad 1/2 opportunities and results is keeping us off the bubble. It's almost as if quads matter more than the NET itself, even though quads are just a subset of the overall NET..

Moral of the story: Don't skip leg day.

(03-07-2019 04:22 PM)PojoaquePosse Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 03:55 PM)edinburger Wrote:  

(03-04-2019 06:41 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  4. WAC - A one bid conference, but if NMSU were to lose in the tournament championship game, they would be a long shot at an at-large bid. The stars would need to be aligned, but they do have a Net ranking of 47 and an RPI of 38. Any team in the top 50 has a shot at an at-large bid. In this scenario, if they did not make the cut, the loss at home to St. Mary's may come back to haunt NMSU.

I'm ignorant about the selection process, but isn't it sort of impossible for the St. Mary's game to make a difference? In your scenario NMSU is losing to UVU, GCU, or maybe even Seattle or UMKC. Seems like that loss would sour the committee a lot more than the St. Mary's game. And then there's the CBU upset.

I have not seen NMSU on any bubble watch site. It appears that a top 50 NET gets most teams onto the bubble, but our lack of quad 1/2 opportunities and results is keeping us off the bubble. It's almost as if quads matter more than the NET itself, even though quads are just a subset of the overall NET..

I agree with what you're saying. But at least we're showing up getting some votes on the AP Top 25. I know it doesn't count for anything officially but it does remind people we're here and the voters that are paying attention think we're up there near number 30.

Latest Bracketology by Lunardi has NMSt as a 12 seed, inside the "last 4 in".

(03-13-2019 04:37 PM)Art Vandaley Wrote:  Latest Bracketology by Lunardi has NMSt as a 12 seed, inside the "last 4 in".

The "last 4 in" is misleading. If NMSU were to lose the WAC Tourney, they would fall out of the "last 4 in". The rest of the WAC is not strong enough (NET rankings) to justify a loss by NMSU. NMSU needs to win the WAC tourney to get into the NCAA tourney. But if they win, a 12 seed or better is possible. If NMSU wins the WAC tourney, they will have a record of 30-4; with 19 straight wins.

(03-13-2019 07:24 PM)NMSUPistolPete Wrote:  

(03-13-2019 04:37 PM)Art Vandaley Wrote:  Latest Bracketology by Lunardi has NMSt as a 12 seed, inside the "last 4 in".

The "last 4 in" is misleading. If NMSU were to lose the WAC Tourney, they would fall out of the "last 4 in". The rest of the WAC is not strong enough (NET rankings) to justify a loss by NMSU. NMSU needs to win the WAC tourney to get into the NCAA tourney. But if they win, a 12 seed or better is possible. If NMSU wins the WAC tourney, they will have a record of 30-4; with 19 straight wins.

It didn't help that St. Mary's got a really freaking big win Tuesday.

Washington isn't going to win the Pac-12 tournament (they won today by 3 over USC, but they're losing their identity). Oregon State is getting crushed by Colorado as I type. It may well be a Colorado v Oregon final, not that I should overlook Arizona State.

As per usual, what's happening this week isn't doing the WAC any favors.