(02-19-2019 09:24 PM)MWC Tex Wrote: I’ll venture a guess that you will be all in with ESPN as they need you for ESPN+.
I think there will be no games licensed to CBSSN since they launched the + platform.
However, you will have some games on ABC.
I'm going to guess, that you will be mistaken, by quite a bit.
This would tend to indicate that ESPN wants the cream and the crumbs. They will take what they think will give them the biggest return, allow Aresco to shop the rest and get what ever money he can, then low ball what ever inventory is left to put on ESPN+ for cheap knowing they are the only 'national broadcast' option and betting we can't sell it to local/regionals.
Essentially they are gambling that our mid and low tier values aren't high enough to cost them anything if they miss out on them. They are also confident that most other media entities will not have the space to put all of our content, like say tennis, baseball, soccer, golf.
If anything this approach would suggest they are attempting to ward off NBC, or force NBC to go all in and back the AAC as a tent pole for its sports properties. I find it difficult to see NBC taking the second tier value on this, but CBSsports would. The big risk is Aresco going to NBC and CBS with modified tiers from what ESPN offers in such a way that the overall package is higher than ESPN's floor, accounts for all inventory, but is financially beneficial to NBC and CBS (most likely splitting the basketball and football games apart would do this). Than ESPN would be forced to bring a counter offer of substance or risk losing some of the exclusivity they have built for ESPN+ and gamble that the product they move over will return similar ratings on roughly 30 timeslots a year the AAC currently fills, often with a million plus viewers.
Aresco is positioning for a multiple bids with minimal risks and he has been doing it since he started shopping Navy last year. Will it work?