(02-25-2019 01:49 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(02-25-2019 01:22 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(02-25-2019 01:20 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(02-25-2019 01:01 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(02-25-2019 12:42 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  It's certainly reasonable to think Temple will beat UCF and finish 12-6. But according to Sagarin, Temple will be a 1-pt underdog to UCF. So IF we rely on the data, we finish in a tie with Temple for 4th at 11-7. I haven't been clear on the tiebreakers. So if it just comes down UCF, then we would have the tiebreak.

So the focus on UCF is misplaced IMO. As I've been saying, Temple is the best shot. Which means 2 games are huge. First, tomorrow with Temple in town. Second is when UCF visits Temple on March 9.

I guess the good news is that UCF @ Temple is the last weekend of the season. So by then, if we have any shot at #4, we will know distinctly who to root for in that game.

According to Kenpom, Temple beats SMU UCF.

I'm just going by logic at this point.

UCF struggles on the road compared to home. Temple is much better at home.

UCF beat Temple by 6 in Orlando. Assuming that is the level of difference in Orlando, Temple should win in Philly.

If Temple only played SMU.

Huh?


Oh, Temple beats UCF.

Damn alphabet conference.

I'm not a subscriber to his service, but I don't think that's true, either. KenPom has UCF 5-points better than Temple. Give Temple 4 for home court, still UCF by 1. Similar to what Sagarin shows.

I am.

It is.

He predicts Temple to win 70-69.

The adjusted EM isn't the anticipated point difference.

Bottom line--the obvious--Memphis is outside looking in for the 3rd or 4th spot.

It we jump Temple, it will require Temple to lose at a faltering UConn team and in a home 50/50 game.

If we catch UCF, it will require UCF to lose three tough road games, or two road games and a home vs. Cinci.

(02-25-2019 03:16 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  Bottom line--the obvious--Memphis is outside looking in for the 3rd or 4th spot.

It we jump Temple, it will require Temple to lose at a faltering UConn team and in a home 50/50 game.

If we catch UCF, it will require UCF to lose three tough road games, or two road games and a home vs. Cinci.

UConn gave Cincy a game down the stretch on Sunday. They've lost 5 in a row, but I didn't really see them faltering.

In your scenarios, which does KenPom say will require the most upsets? Sagarin says catching Temple requires no upsets, while catching UCF requires 2 upsets. Zero upsets > 2 upsets.

(02-25-2019 02:49 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(02-25-2019 01:49 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(02-25-2019 01:22 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  

(02-25-2019 01:20 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(02-25-2019 01:01 PM)salukiblue Wrote:  According to Kenpom, Temple beats SMU UCF.

I'm just going by logic at this point.

UCF struggles on the road compared to home. Temple is much better at home.

UCF beat Temple by 6 in Orlando. Assuming that is the level of difference in Orlando, Temple should win in Philly.

If Temple only played SMU.

Huh?


Oh, Temple beats UCF.

Damn alphabet conference.

I'm not a subscriber to his service, but I don't think that's true, either. KenPom has UCF 5-points better than Temple. Give Temple 4 for home court, still UCF by 1. Similar to what Sagarin shows.

I am.

It is.

He predicts Temple to win 70-69.

The adjusted EM isn't the anticipated point difference.

Maybe he's as wrong about that as he was pre-season SMU.