Since the only thing people who defend Tubby seem to point to is last year's win total, I decided to compare last year's schedule with this year's and try to extrapolate how this year's team would have done against last year's schedule, and vice versa.

I think both would have pretty similar records. I have this year's team getting 22 wins against last year's schedule, with the only game really in question being LSU. Last year's team I have with 15 wins so far, but with several games that I gave as Ws that could have been Ls - Cincinnati, based on the home win against Houston; @Temple since they did it last year, though Temple is a little better this year; and OK State neutral since they won a couple of away games in that range. Then I have them dropping a couple of games to bad teams to match what they did last year.

I do find it interesting that it looks to me, based on how the schedules line up, each team could have possibly done better against the other's schedule.

Below are the schedules and rankings, along with my projected results.

Pom - Pomeroy ranking
R - Result
TYR - This year's team projected result (IMO)
LYR - Last year's team projected result (IMO)
S - Site
Team - Team


Last year:

Pom R TYR S Team
4 L (L) @ Cincinatti
4 L (L) n Cincinnati
4 L (L) h Cincinnati
18 W (L) h Houston
21 L (L) h Wichita State
38 L (L) n Louisville
57 L (L) n Alabama
66 L (W) h LSU
84 W (L) @ SMU
86 W (L) @ Temple
90 W (W) h Northern Kentucky
109 L (L) @ UAB
110 L (L) @ Tulsa
110 W (W) n Tulsa
110 W (W) h Tulsa
111 L (L) @ UCF
111 L (W) h UCF
151 W (W) h Albany (NY)
154 W (W) h Mercer
171 W (W) @ Tulane
171 W (W) h Tulane
179 W (W) @ Uconn
179 W (W) h Uconn
266 W (W) h New Orleans
279 W (W) @ USF
279 W (W) n USF
279 L (W) h USF
296 W (W) h UALR
298 W (W) h Samford
303 W (W) h Siena
307 L (W) @ ECU
307 W (W) h ECU
323 W (W) h Loyola (MD)
344 W (W) h Bryant


This year:

Pom R LYR S Team
5 L (L) h Tennessee
12 L (L) n Texas Tech
18 L (L) @ Houston
21 L (L) @ LSU
27 - (-) @ Cincinnati
27 L (W) h Cincinnati
49 - (-) @ UCF
49 W (L) h UCF
72 W (W) h Yale
75 L (W) @ Temple
75 - (-) h Temple
84 W (W) h Uconn
90 L (W) n Oklahoma State
95 L (L) @ USF
109 L (L) @ Tulsa
109 - (-) h Tulsa
114 W (W) h SMU
116 L (W) n Charleston
126 - (-) @ Wichita State
126 W (W) h Wichita State
180 W (W) h UAB
192 W (W) h UALR
253 W (L) h SDSU
257 W (W) n Canisius
265 W (L) @ ECU
265 W (W) h ECU
286 W (W) h TSU
296 W (W) @ Tulane
296 - (-) h Tulane
314 W (W) h Florida A&M
324 W (W) h Tennessee Tech

Man, last years schedule was straight trash. 17 games against teams 150 or worse. Only 11 this season.

NEXT year’s team would do better against either.

not to mention, I believe KenPom or one of those math guys rated us the 2nd luckiest team in the country last year? Maybe it was Samford that we were down 4 or 5 with 15 seconds left and lost. Then there was a last second half court 3 against Mercer? Got to give the kids some credit for gutting out some close games, but we easily could've had 17 wins with that trash schedule [/align]

(02-12-2019 02:01 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  Man, last years schedule was straight trash. 17 games against teams 150 or worse. Only 11 this season.

Ine of the big issues is having 4 or 5 AAC games each year against 250+ teams. ECU involved in both years & they’ll probably beat us again tmrw.

(02-12-2019 09:13 PM)hsvtiger Wrote:  

(02-12-2019 02:01 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  Man, last years schedule was straight trash. 17 games against teams 150 or worse. Only 11 this season.

Ine of the big issues is having 4 or 5 AAC games each year against 250+ teams. ECU involved in both years & they’ll probably beat us again tmrw.

(02-13-2019 09:47 PM)Tiger87 Wrote:  

(02-12-2019 09:13 PM)hsvtiger Wrote:  

(02-12-2019 02:01 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  Man, last years schedule was straight trash. 17 games against teams 150 or worse. Only 11 this season.

Ine of the big issues is having 4 or 5 AAC games each year against 250+ teams. ECU involved in both years & they’ll probably beat us again tmrw.

Not!

Last year's Tigers team was the 1st team in 25+ years to have a negative scoring margin.

Let that sink in.

By every metric this team is FAR better than last year's team.

RPI:
2018: 103
2019: 62

Sagarin:
2018: 132
2019: 70

KenPom:
2018: 161
2019: 78

SRS:
2018: 1.80
2019: 9.41

(02-14-2019 11:48 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Last year's Tigers team was the 1st team in 25+ years to have a negative scoring margin.

Let that sink in.

By every metric this team is FAR better than last year's team.

RPI:
2018: 103
2019: 62

Sagarin:
2018: 132
2019: 70

KenPom:
2018: 161
2019: 78

SRS:
2018: 1.80
2019: 9.41

Glaring differences when you consider this team is roughly the same roster wise as last year

(02-14-2019 01:08 PM)stratecashomie Wrote:  

(02-14-2019 11:48 AM)salukiblue Wrote:  Last year's Tigers team was the 1st team in 25+ years to have a negative scoring margin.

Let that sink in.

By every metric this team is FAR better than last year's team.

RPI:
2018: 103
2019: 62

Sagarin:
2018: 132
2019: 70

KenPom:
2018: 161
2019: 78

SRS:
2018: 1.80
2019: 9.41

Glaring differences when you consider this team is roughly the same roster wise as last year

Take away Rivers, Nickelback, Rhodes, and Johnson and add Maurice, Jones, Harris, and Lomax.

No comparison.