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Sweet 16 bracket reveal
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stever20 Online
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Post: #1
Sweet 16 bracket reveal
should be interesting tomorrow....

saw this interesting factoid on the AAC board:
This is the 3rd year for the preview. 28 of the 32 teams in the prior two years actually got a 4 seed or better in the real bracket. Six of the eight “preview 1 seeds” got real 1 seeds.

so in the 2 years average of 14 of 16 teams got 4 seeds or better and 3 of 4 1 seeds got 1 seeds in the tourney....
02-08-2019 03:50 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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RE: Sweet 16 bracket reveal
Looking at the preview against NET is going to be quite interesting.
02-08-2019 04:28 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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RE: Sweet 16 bracket reveal
To follow up, this was how the ranking went on Saturday. NET rating from games played through Friday referenced.

1. Duke (2, +1)
2. Tennessee (4, +2)
3. Virginia (3, 0)
4. Gonzaga (1, -3)
5. Kentucky (5, 0)
6. Michigan (6, 0)
7. North Carolina (9, +2)
8. Michigan State (8, 0)
9. Purdue (10, +1)
10. Kansas (18, +8)
11. Houston (7, -4)
12. Marquette (21, +9)
13. Iowa State (16, +3)
14. Nevada (13, -1)
15. Louisville (15, 0)
16. Wisconsin (11, -5)

Teams not in the top four lines with top-16 NET rankings: Texas Tech (12), Virginia Tech (14)

So, with the exception of Wisconsin, we all see it, right?
02-11-2019 03:14 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Sweet 16 bracket reveal
I'm glad the committee isn't taking the NET values alone in their seeding projections. For example, while Marquette is #21 in NET, we have wins over Louisville, Wisconsin and Villanova, all programs that they have defeated this year with a higher NET. It's clear that NET doesn't have any built-in data that accounts for head-to-head performance, hence why Virginia was still higher than Duke a few weeks ago, despite Duke beating them the first time.
(This post was last modified: 02-11-2019 03:22 PM by GoldenWarrior11.)
02-11-2019 03:21 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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RE: Sweet 16 bracket reveal
Looks like NET isn't all it was cracked up to be in terms of determining this stuff.

Heck, I wonder how the NET differentials compare to RPI?
02-11-2019 03:32 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: Sweet 16 bracket reveal
so looking at current RPI vs the reveal...
Duke 2
Tennessee 9
Virginia 6
Gonzaga 5
Kentucky 7
Michigan 4
UNC 8
Mich St 15
Purdue 10
Kansas 1
Houston 3
Marquette 17
Iowa St 26
Nevada 14
Louisville 19
Wisconsin 22

in top 16 RPI and not in
11 LSU
12 Villanova
13 Kansas St
16 Buffalo

It's not quite apples to apples, but it's pretty close..
02-11-2019 03:48 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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RE: Sweet 16 bracket reveal
I don’t know...five teams ranked per their NET, another five ranked within +/- two, and twelve of sixteen by +/- three? And only two teams are different from that list. That seems pegged to NET if you ask me.

I’m irked by all three non-majors sitting lower than their NET. It’s like, you didn’t like RPI, so you added tiers. Now you change the metric, slant it more toward SOS, and when a non-major lands in a high spot, you STILL can’t seed them the same way as the major and their rating. We get it, committee, you can’t look past the names on the jerseys and the conference affiliations.

Gonna be very interesting if Wofford and Lipscomb win out and somehow tank in their tournament. Any hope the committee respects their NET rating the same as a major’s?
02-11-2019 10:10 PM
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CougarRed Offline
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Post: #8
RE: Sweet 16 bracket reveal
(02-11-2019 03:48 PM)stever20 Wrote:  so looking at current RPI vs the reveal...
Duke 2
Tennessee 9
Virginia 6
Gonzaga 5
Kentucky 7
Michigan 4
UNC 8
Mich St 15
Purdue 10
Kansas 1
Houston 3
Marquette 17
Iowa St 26
Nevada 14
Louisville 19
Wisconsin 22

in top 16 RPI and not in
11 LSU
12 Villanova
13 Kansas St
16 Buffalo

It's not quite apples to apples, but it's pretty close..

Actual seeding much closer to NET than RPI. At the very least, NET has more predictive value.
02-13-2019 08:25 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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RE: Sweet 16 bracket reveal
(02-13-2019 08:25 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  Actual seeding much closer to NET than RPI. At the very least, NET has more predictive value.

Yeah, RPI is, as usual, a little all over the place. But, even there...Kansas seems adjusted toward RPI, Houston is disregarded there, too.

Seeding is going to be utterly crazy this year, I feel. And, you are probably going to see some interesting snubs on both sides of the major/non-major bubble.
02-13-2019 12:24 PM
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