Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
Author Message
quo vadis Online
Legend
*

Posts: 29,338
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 702
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #61
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 03:22 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  How much would the best AAC game each week as a stand alone package be worth to NBC or CBS? Both of those networks have timeslots available on their flagship OTA channels and getting those timeslots would be ideal for AAC visibility.

That might really work, because the AAC often has a team or two ranked in the top 25.
02-08-2019 03:27 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Attackcoog Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 27,377
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 1172
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #62
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 02:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The sheer number of game sis more than will be consumed.

The average college fan likes their school and maybe top 40 vs top 40 games. They will consume 4 a week, 6 if they are nutty. With rare exception top 40 vs top 40 are P5 vs P5 games.

The value of the others is much lower. Sure the AAC has the last couple of years had 3 or 4 compelling games. But they have far more Memphis vs Tulsa, ECU vs SMU, Tulane vs USF that nobody cares about anymore than EMU vs Kent or SJSU vs New Mexico.

The best the AAC can do is package maybe one game a week of potential value. The question is, do the networks care? A big problem the AAC has is they compete with the SEC, ACC, B12 and B1G for eastern and central time zone slots. Their best game is going to be going head to head with Alabama vs Tennessee, Ohio State vs Michigan State, Oklahoma vs West Virginia, Clemson vs Virginia Tech, Wisconsin vs Iowa, South Carolina vs Georgia, Florida State vs North Carolina, or similar set of games at any given time slot.

The best package the AAC could come up with is probably Friday Night football with their best match up of the week. That might have some value. ESPN has MLB playoffs in October (why MACtion is November), so useful weeknight slots are not available. Still niche slot packaging is the best hope to get more than a G5+ contract. Lost of Friday Night games for teams with strong rankings or records.

People keep saying things like that---but that battle has already been fought and the results are in. The ratings over the past 5 years show that the AAC is able to carve out a solid audience DESPITE going head to head against the SEC/ACC/Big10/Big12--often in the less viewed broadcast windows. The AAC ratings are the AAC ratings. All the networks know the numbers and know the AAC is delivering solid audiences for a really low price.
The only real question is will ESPN pony up enough money to buy all the AAC content---or will NBC or some other network peal off some of the more attractive rights by outbidding ESPN?
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2019 04:24 PM by Attackcoog.)
02-08-2019 04:20 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
usffan Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,364
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 251
I Root For: USF
Location:
Post: #63
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 03:27 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 03:22 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  How much would the best AAC game each week as a stand alone package be worth to NBC or CBS? Both of those networks have timeslots available on their flagship OTA channels and getting those timeslots would be ideal for AAC visibility.

That might really work, because the AAC often has a team or two ranked in the top 25.

It always seemed reasonable that NBC would have been a logical candidate for this. They get 7 Notre Dame games a year, which would be so easy to pair with the AAC (and effectively lock up the Notre Dame "at" Navy game as part of this package), thus guaranteeing they'd have a "game of the week" every week.

I think CBS would work if they partnered with Turner like they do on the NCAA tournament. But to date, neither NBC nor CBS has shown any interest in spending money unless it's for a marquee property (Notre Dame, SEC).

USFFan
02-08-2019 04:26 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
CoastalJuan Online
Business Drunk
*

Posts: 2,113
Joined: Sep 2014
Reputation: 95
I Root For: ECU
Location: Right near da beeech
Post: #64
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 04:20 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 02:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The sheer number of game sis more than will be consumed.

The average college fan likes their school and maybe top 40 vs top 40 games. They will consume 4 a week, 6 if they are nutty. With rare exception top 40 vs top 40 are P5 vs P5 games.

The value of the others is much lower. Sure the AAC has the last couple of years had 3 or 4 compelling games. But they have far more Memphis vs Tulsa, ECU vs SMU, Tulane vs USF that nobody cares about anymore than EMU vs Kent or SJSU vs New Mexico.

The best the AAC can do is package maybe one game a week of potential value. The question is, do the networks care? A big problem the AAC has is they compete with the SEC, ACC, B12 and B1G for eastern and central time zone slots. Their best game is going to be going head to head with Alabama vs Tennessee, Ohio State vs Michigan State, Oklahoma vs West Virginia, Clemson vs Virginia Tech, Wisconsin vs Iowa, South Carolina vs Georgia, Florida State vs North Carolina, or similar set of games at any given time slot.

The best package the AAC could come up with is probably Friday Night football with their best match up of the week. That might have some value. ESPN has MLB playoffs in October (why MACtion is November), so useful weeknight slots are not available. Still niche slot packaging is the best hope to get more than a G5+ contract. Lost of Friday Night games for teams with strong rankings or records.

People keep saying things like that---but that battle has already been fought and the results are in. The ratings over the past 5 years show that the AAC is able to carve out a solid audience DESPITE going head to head against the SEC/ACC/Big10/Big12--often in the less viewed broadcast windows. The AAC ratings are the AAC ratings. All the networks know the numbers and know the AAC is delivering solid audiences for a really low price.
The only real question is will ESPN pony up enough money to buy all the AAC content---or will NBC or some other network peal off some of the more attractive rights by outbidding ESPN?

Shorter version, the SEC/ACC/Big10/Big12 also have that problem. They don't exist in a vacuum any more than the AAC does.
02-08-2019 04:31 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
ken d Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 9,692
Joined: Dec 2013
Reputation: 423
I Root For: college sports
Location: Raleigh
Post: #65
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 03:22 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  How much would the best AAC game each week as a stand alone package be worth to NBC or CBS? Both of those networks have timeslots available on their flagship OTA channels and getting those timeslots would be ideal for AAC visibility.

If the AAC were to market their best game each week as a stand alone package, they would have to spread their most compelling games throughout the entire 13 game season. They couldn't, for example, try to set up a compelling final week or two to influence poll voters or selection committee members.

If they then try to sell the rest of their schedule to somebody else, who might bundle those games with their basketball games, they would be selling pretty weak sauce. They couldn't expect to get paid much for that package.

The fact is, in both sports they have a few attractive teams and at least as many duds. Within conference governance, though, the duds get the same number of votes as the stars. And they want to be featured on TV, too. If the league wants to guarantee all members some minimum number of appearances, it's going to dampen the enthusiasm of bidders.

That's why their current package is disappointing, and why the next deal, even if it's much better than the current one, is still likely to be disappointing to many, if not most, AAC fans.
02-08-2019 04:45 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
usffan Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,364
Joined: Mar 2004
Reputation: 251
I Root For: USF
Location:
Post: #66
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/02/08/p...onference/

Seems relevant in light of some of the topics in here:

Quote:“Amazon is 100 percent focused on sports. Apple is looking at sports rights deals. Look at ESPN+,’’ he said. “The OTT wars are just starting.”

I personally think we're rapidly approaching the end of days for cable companies, and most everything we watch will be via some type of streaming service. To be sure, I think most cable companies see this coming as well, which is why they're so involved as ISP's. But this becomes important because I think we're not far removed from people being able to buy their sports directly from the school and/or conferences instead of from a network. It's not going to happen in the next year or two, but I think it's almost certainly going to be a very different landscape by, say, 2025.

USFFan
02-08-2019 05:04 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
quo vadis Online
Legend
*

Posts: 29,338
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 702
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: Baton Rouge, LA
Post: #67
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 04:45 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 03:22 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  How much would the best AAC game each week as a stand alone package be worth to NBC or CBS? Both of those networks have timeslots available on their flagship OTA channels and getting those timeslots would be ideal for AAC visibility.

If the AAC were to market their best game each week as a stand alone package, they would have to spread their most compelling games throughout the entire 13 game season.

The AAC could sign a deal like the SEC has with CBS, whereby the network would get their choice of one AAC game each week. So the AAC wouldn't have to make up a schedule in advance that involves guessing about who is going to be good or not.

Thing is, one reason the AAC draws decent ratings is because generally speaking, ranked teams draw decent ratings, no matter who they are, not just P5. A ranking in the AP/Coaches poll and then the CFP catches the eye of most college football fans, and that happens even if the ranked team isn't playing another ranked team (it's even better when they are, but still). So when a Boise or a USF or a NIU is ranked #18, they generally draw a decent rating.

The AAC usually does have a ranked team most weeks so this could be a way of squeezing more value out of the game that team plays.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2019 05:14 PM by quo vadis.)
02-08-2019 05:11 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Attackcoog Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 27,377
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 1172
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #68
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 05:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 04:45 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 03:22 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  How much would the best AAC game each week as a stand alone package be worth to NBC or CBS? Both of those networks have timeslots available on their flagship OTA channels and getting those timeslots would be ideal for AAC visibility.

If the AAC were to market their best game each week as a stand alone package, they would have to spread their most compelling games throughout the entire 13 game season.

The AAC could sign a deal like the SEC has with CBS, whereby the network would get their choice of one AAC game each week. So the AAC wouldn't have to make up a schedule in advance that involves guessing about who is going to be good or not.

Thing is, one reason the AAC draws decent ratings is because generally speaking, ranked teams draw decent ratings, no matter who they are, not just P5. A ranking in the AP/Coaches poll and then the CFP catches the eye of most college football fans, and that happens even if the ranked team isn't playing another ranked team (it's even better when they are, but still). So when a Boise or a USF or a NIU is ranked #18, they generally draw a decent rating.

The AAC usually does have a ranked team most weeks so this could be a way of squeezing more value out of the game that team plays.

I think thats why NBC is an interesting partner. Their NBC-Sports Network is not the greatest platform---but there is likely a whole lot of mutual benefit from pairing an AAC game of the week with their Notre Dame content. Heck, the AAC package even includes a Notre Dame game every other year.

Also, an item thats largely being overlooked---basketball. The AAC is currently a solid basketball league. When UConn, Wichita, and Memphis get back on track--and that looks like it could be as early as next year---the AAC could easily become a premier college basketball league. That wouldnt be a bad property for NBC to have during January, Feb, and March.
02-08-2019 05:46 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
ValleyBoy Offline
Sun Belt Nationalist
*

Posts: 1,972
Joined: Oct 2010
Reputation: 44
I Root For: GaSo,Troy
Location: Alabama
Post: #69
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 05:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 05:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 04:45 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 03:22 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  How much would the best AAC game each week as a stand alone package be worth to NBC or CBS? Both of those networks have timeslots available on their flagship OTA channels and getting those timeslots would be ideal for AAC visibility.

If the AAC were to market their best game each week as a stand alone package, they would have to spread their most compelling games throughout the entire 13 game season.

The AAC could sign a deal like the SEC has with CBS, whereby the network would get their choice of one AAC game each week. So the AAC wouldn't have to make up a schedule in advance that involves guessing about who is going to be good or not.

Thing is, one reason the AAC draws decent ratings is because generally speaking, ranked teams draw decent ratings, no matter who they are, not just P5. A ranking in the AP/Coaches poll and then the CFP catches the eye of most college football fans, and that happens even if the ranked team isn't playing another ranked team (it's even better when they are, but still). So when a Boise or a USF or a NIU is ranked #18, they generally draw a decent rating.

The AAC usually does have a ranked team most weeks so this could be a way of squeezing more value out of the game that team plays.

I think thats why NBC is an interesting partner. Their NBC-Sports Network is not the greatest platform---but there is likely a whole lot of mutual benefit from pairing an AAC game of the week with their Notre Dame content. Heck, the AAC package even includes a Notre Dame game every other year.

Also, an item thats largely being overlooked---basketball. The AAC is currently a solid basketball league. When UConn, Wichita, and Memphis get back on track--and that looks like it could be as early as next year---the AAC could easily become a premier college basketball league. That wouldnt be a bad property for NBC to have during January, Feb, and March.

The problem with the AAC vs Notre Dame is that NBC's affiliated stations would have no interest in most AAC football games because they could make more money off commercials with showing something where all the commercials are sold by them instead of the network.
02-08-2019 07:29 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
33laszlo99 Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 170
Joined: Jun 2014
Reputation: 20
I Root For: Bama
Location:
Post: #70
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 04:20 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 02:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The sheer number of game sis more than will be consumed.

The average college fan likes their school and maybe top 40 vs top 40 games. They will consume 4 a week, 6 if they are nutty. With rare exception top 40 vs top 40 are P5 vs P5 games.

The value of the others is much lower. Sure the AAC has the last couple of years had 3 or 4 compelling games. But they have far more Memphis vs Tulsa, ECU vs SMU, Tulane vs USF that nobody cares about anymore than EMU vs Kent or SJSU vs New Mexico.

The best the AAC can do is package maybe one game a week of potential value. The question is, do the networks care? A big problem the AAC has is they compete with the SEC, ACC, B12 and B1G for eastern and central time zone slots. Their best game is going to be going head to head with Alabama vs Tennessee, Ohio State vs Michigan State, Oklahoma vs West Virginia, Clemson vs Virginia Tech, Wisconsin vs Iowa, South Carolina vs Georgia, Florida State vs North Carolina, or similar set of games at any given time slot.

The best package the AAC could come up with is probably Friday Night football with their best match up of the week. That might have some value. ESPN has MLB playoffs in October (why MACtion is November), so useful weeknight slots are not available. Still niche slot packaging is the best hope to get more than a G5+ contract. Lost of Friday Night games for teams with strong rankings or records.

People keep saying things like that---but that battle has already been fought and the results are in. The ratings over the past 5 years show that the AAC is able to carve out a solid audience DESPITE going head to head against the SEC/ACC/Big10/Big12--often in the less viewed broadcast windows. The AAC ratings are the AAC ratings. All the networks know the numbers and know the AAC is delivering solid audiences for a really low price.
The only real question is will ESPN pony up enough money to buy all the AAC content---or will NBC or some other network peal off some of the more attractive rights by outbidding ESPN?

"that battle has already been fought and the results are in."
I'm looking at the results for 2018 and if I am a corporate advertiser, I would buy into AAC games only if they came cheaply bundles with other ESPN/ABC games. Fox might be able to get similar results for the AAC because they too can bundle ads across their entire lineup of games. The ACC will have to end up with either of the big boys. These are the only two who can make money with them. And the question is "How much?"

Wek by week best ranking for an AAC game.
Wk 1 - 20th ESPNU - UCF vs UConn
Wk 2 - 6th ABC - Ariz. vs Houston split with GaTech vs FSU
Wk 3 - 14th ESPN - GaSt vs Memphis
Wk 4 - 12th ESPN - FAU vs UCF
Wk 5 - 18th ESPN2 - Memphis - Tulane
Wk 6 - 18th ESPN - Tulsa vs Houston
Wk 7 - 4th ABC - UCF vs Memphis split with Wash. vs Oregon (exrta credit 13th ESPN USF vs Tulsa)
Wk 8 - 16th ESPN2 - UCF vs ECU
Wk 9 - 9th ABC - USF vs Houston split with Ariz vs USC (ND vs Navy was 5th, within AAC contract?)
Wk 10 - 12th ESPN - Temple vs UCF
Wk 11 - 22nd ESPN2 - Navy vs UCF
Wk 12 - 3rd ABC - Cincinnati vs UCF
Wk 13 - 12th ESPN - UCF vs USF
WK 14 - 6th ABC - UCF vs Memphis (AAC Championship) 6th place among 9 total games
Fiesta Bowl - 6th among all bowl games ESPN - LSU vs UCF
Military Bowl - 20th among all bowl games ESPN - Cincinnati vs Va Tech
02-08-2019 07:44 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Attackcoog Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 27,377
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 1172
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #71
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 07:29 PM)ValleyBoy Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 05:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 05:11 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 04:45 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 03:22 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  How much would the best AAC game each week as a stand alone package be worth to NBC or CBS? Both of those networks have timeslots available on their flagship OTA channels and getting those timeslots would be ideal for AAC visibility.

If the AAC were to market their best game each week as a stand alone package, they would have to spread their most compelling games throughout the entire 13 game season.

The AAC could sign a deal like the SEC has with CBS, whereby the network would get their choice of one AAC game each week. So the AAC wouldn't have to make up a schedule in advance that involves guessing about who is going to be good or not.

Thing is, one reason the AAC draws decent ratings is because generally speaking, ranked teams draw decent ratings, no matter who they are, not just P5. A ranking in the AP/Coaches poll and then the CFP catches the eye of most college football fans, and that happens even if the ranked team isn't playing another ranked team (it's even better when they are, but still). So when a Boise or a USF or a NIU is ranked #18, they generally draw a decent rating.

The AAC usually does have a ranked team most weeks so this could be a way of squeezing more value out of the game that team plays.

I think thats why NBC is an interesting partner. Their NBC-Sports Network is not the greatest platform---but there is likely a whole lot of mutual benefit from pairing an AAC game of the week with their Notre Dame content. Heck, the AAC package even includes a Notre Dame game every other year.

Also, an item thats largely being overlooked---basketball. The AAC is currently a solid basketball league. When UConn, Wichita, and Memphis get back on track--and that looks like it could be as early as next year---the AAC could easily become a premier college basketball league. That wouldnt be a bad property for NBC to have during January, Feb, and March.

The problem with the AAC vs Notre Dame is that NBC's affiliated stations would have no interest in most AAC football games because they could make more money off commercials with showing something where all the commercials are sold by them instead of the network.

Ummm...I dont think thats true. However, to the extent that it is true---Thats much more likely to be the case when the programming provided by the network is gymnastics or a car auction when the other networks were showing college football (which is the exact programming NBC tried to go head to head vs college football at various times this last year).
02-08-2019 07:47 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
johnbragg Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 9,254
Joined: Dec 2011
Reputation: 314
I Root For: St Johns
Location:
Post: #72
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-07-2019 08:37 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  [quote='johnbragg' pid='15887894' dateline='1549509254']
[quote='RutgersGuy' pid='15887829' dateline='1549506912']


But the goal wasn't to be what ESPN was because thats unrealistic since they have had a 30+ year head start and a monopoly.

The goal was to be a "baby ESPN", pulling in $2, 3, 5 a month for FS1. That's the goal that's now out of reach, with cord-cutting eating into ESPN's revenues.

Quote:They can and are making money which is the goal and are growing every year.

Wait a minute, hold the phone. It's not clear at all that FS1 is making money. The plan was never for FS1 to be making money at this point--the idea was to buy enough sports rights to create a plausible "Jr ESPN" (check)--and then charge Jr ESPN subscriber fees to 100M subscribers across the country (not checked).

Quote:They already have sunk millions into TV rights on major properties.

On contracts that will, one day, expire. The question is what happens when those contracts do expire. In the last big round of negotiations, ESPN was printing so much money (mostly on subscriber fees) that Comcast and Fox were willing to gamble billions to build a Jr ESPN. That business logic falls apart as ESPN's subscriber revenues decline.

Quote:You took an analogy literally and tried to sound smart in the process. The execs at Pepsico are doing just fine in second place.

The second place isn't the problem. IT's the second place--in a declining field.

Quote:FS1 will do the same. Just like ESPN Coke had a huge head start and no one will ever overtake them. That doesn't mean others can't make money in the same field and Fox has been doing just fine with FS1. They are a legit alternative channel to watch sports.

Which is fine, but that by itself is not going to motivate banks and equity markets to give New Fox money to hand over to leagues and conferences for TV rights.

Quote:This isn't NBCsports, CBSsports or early days of ESPN airing whatever they can get their hands on. MLB, B1G, Big XII, Big East, World Cup and WWE. Oh and they are still in the short term. It's year 5, in the TV world thats short term.

The point is, the overall conditions have changed dramatically since Year 1. In 2012, ESPN had 99 million subscribers. End of last year, they were around 86 million.

(02-08-2019 02:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The best the AAC can do is package maybe one game a week of potential value. The question is, do the networks care?

I think the record of the past few years has shown that the AAC has around 20 games a year that can easily be shuffled into a rotation with P5 games.

An ESPN2 Saturday of
12:00 Oklahoma STate(6-3) vs Baylor (5-4),
3:30 Memphis (7-2) vs #23 Houston (8-1)
8:00 USC (8-1) vs Arizona (4-5)
doesn't raise any eyebrows.

I don't think ESPN can just slot in Georgia State (8-1) vs Troy (6-3) and not miss a beat. So there is value there to ESPN.

But.... (cont'd below)

(02-08-2019 03:22 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  How much would the best AAC game each week as a stand alone package be worth to NBC or CBS? Both of those networks have timeslots available on their flagship OTA channels and getting those timeslots would be ideal for AAC visibility.

I also don't think that MEmphis-Houston game stands up as part of a double-header with Alabama or Notre Dame. And that Memphis-Houston game is not a very attractive proposition on an island on NBC-SN or TNT. So being on ESPN/2/U/ABC or at least Fox/FS1 is valuable to the AAC. (I don't think Fox is a factor because they're pretty stocked up on CFB with the Big Ten, Big XII and PAC and only 2 big-boy channels to use, vs 4 for ESPN.)

So I think the AAC-ESPN partnership helps both sides. The question is, do both sides value the partnership in close to the same numbers? Will the AAC presidents accept what ESPN regards as a reasonable offer, or will they (especially UConn) go to market and shoot for the moon?
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2019 07:57 PM by johnbragg.)
02-08-2019 07:56 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Attackcoog Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 27,377
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 1172
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #73
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 07:44 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 04:20 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 02:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The sheer number of game sis more than will be consumed.

The average college fan likes their school and maybe top 40 vs top 40 games. They will consume 4 a week, 6 if they are nutty. With rare exception top 40 vs top 40 are P5 vs P5 games.

The value of the others is much lower. Sure the AAC has the last couple of years had 3 or 4 compelling games. But they have far more Memphis vs Tulsa, ECU vs SMU, Tulane vs USF that nobody cares about anymore than EMU vs Kent or SJSU vs New Mexico.

The best the AAC can do is package maybe one game a week of potential value. The question is, do the networks care? A big problem the AAC has is they compete with the SEC, ACC, B12 and B1G for eastern and central time zone slots. Their best game is going to be going head to head with Alabama vs Tennessee, Ohio State vs Michigan State, Oklahoma vs West Virginia, Clemson vs Virginia Tech, Wisconsin vs Iowa, South Carolina vs Georgia, Florida State vs North Carolina, or similar set of games at any given time slot.

The best package the AAC could come up with is probably Friday Night football with their best match up of the week. That might have some value. ESPN has MLB playoffs in October (why MACtion is November), so useful weeknight slots are not available. Still niche slot packaging is the best hope to get more than a G5+ contract. Lost of Friday Night games for teams with strong rankings or records.

People keep saying things like that---but that battle has already been fought and the results are in. The ratings over the past 5 years show that the AAC is able to carve out a solid audience DESPITE going head to head against the SEC/ACC/Big10/Big12--often in the less viewed broadcast windows. The AAC ratings are the AAC ratings. All the networks know the numbers and know the AAC is delivering solid audiences for a really low price.
The only real question is will ESPN pony up enough money to buy all the AAC content---or will NBC or some other network peal off some of the more attractive rights by outbidding ESPN?

"that battle has already been fought and the results are in."
I'm looking at the results for 2018 and if I am a corporate advertiser, I would buy into AAC games only if they came cheaply bundles with other ESPN/ABC games. Fox might be able to get similar results for the AAC because they too can bundle ads across their entire lineup of games. The ACC will have to end up with either of the big boys. These are the only two who can make money with them. And the question is "How much?"

Wek by week best ranking for an AAC game.
Wk 1 - 20th ESPNU - UCF vs UConn
Wk 2 - 6th ABC - Ariz. vs Houston split with GaTech vs FSU
Wk 3 - 14th ESPN - GaSt vs Memphis
Wk 4 - 12th ESPN - FAU vs UCF
Wk 5 - 18th ESPN2 - Memphis - Tulane
Wk 6 - 18th ESPN - Tulsa vs Houston
Wk 7 - 4th ABC - UCF vs Memphis split with Wash. vs Oregon (exrta credit 13th ESPN USF vs Tulsa)
Wk 8 - 16th ESPN2 - UCF vs ECU
Wk 9 - 9th ABC - USF vs Houston split with Ariz vs USC (ND vs Navy was 5th, within AAC contract?)
Wk 10 - 12th ESPN - Temple vs UCF
Wk 11 - 22nd ESPN2 - Navy vs UCF
Wk 12 - 3rd ABC - Cincinnati vs UCF
Wk 13 - 12th ESPN - UCF vs USF
WK 14 - 6th ABC - UCF vs Memphis (AAC Championship) 6th place among 9 total games
Fiesta Bowl - 6th among all bowl games ESPN - LSU vs UCF
Military Bowl - 20th among all bowl games ESPN - Cincinnati vs Va Tech

Im not big at all on this strategy. That said---a couple of relevant questions. How much did it cost to get access to the the games that are beating the AAC in the ratings? Are any of those conference rights available this year?


The answer is it would likely cost about 250-300 million to get the rights to one of those conferences---if they were available---which they are not. Basically, the AAC represents an excellent "bang for the buck" property. I continue to think they are a bargain in that 75-100 million dollar range. Although a case could be made they should in the 100-140 million range----my more conservative 75-100 million range just feels more likely to me.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2019 07:58 PM by Attackcoog.)
02-08-2019 07:57 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Fighting Muskie Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,819
Joined: Sep 2016
Reputation: 61
I Root For: Ohio St, MAC
Location:
Post: #74
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
Let's say NBC bought an AAC package that included the top pick each week as well as the 2nd pick on weeks where there wasnt a ND home game, along with the football championship game and a selection of conference basketball games.

This could be secured for much cheaper that P5 content and yield a great ROI. Remember that their competitors are paying a great deal more for their content and need huge ratings figures to turn a profit. Buying bargain content means a much lower threshold.

You then sell the rest as a bundle to ESPN where they get some Thurs/Friday games and the rest they put behind their paywall.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2019 09:44 PM by Fighting Muskie.)
02-08-2019 09:43 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Attackcoog Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 27,377
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 1172
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #75
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 09:43 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let's say NBC bought an AAC package that included the top pick each week as well as the 2nd pick on weeks where there wasnt a ND home game, along with the football championship game and a selection of conference basketball games.

This could be secured for much cheaper that P5 content and yield a great ROI. Remember that their competitors are paying a great deal more for their content and need huge ratings figures to turn a profit. Buying bargain content means a much lower threshold.

You then sell the rest as a bundle to ESPN where they get some Thurs/Friday games and the rest they put behind their paywall.

Im actually thinking that NBC and ESPN will end up splitting the AAC rights with NBC outbidding ESPN for top selection rights. It will work kinda like the FOX-ESPN sharing of the Big 10 (or Big12 or Pac12 for that matter). Basically both will end up with the content they need for about 40-50 million each. Thats small potatoes for either. Its a low risk play for NBC to get back into the game on Saturdays when Notre Dame is on the road and it fills a lot of spaces for ESPN. I also expect for ESPN to buy the third tier stuff for ESPN-Plus.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2019 09:56 PM by Attackcoog.)
02-08-2019 09:53 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
33laszlo99 Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 170
Joined: Jun 2014
Reputation: 20
I Root For: Bama
Location:
Post: #76
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 09:53 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 09:43 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let's say NBC bought an AAC package that included the top pick each week as well as the 2nd pick on weeks where there wasnt a ND home game, along with the football championship game and a selection of conference basketball games.

This could be secured for much cheaper that P5 content and yield a great ROI. Remember that their competitors are paying a great deal more for their content and need huge ratings figures to turn a profit. Buying bargain content means a much lower threshold.

You then sell the rest as a bundle to ESPN where they get some Thurs/Friday games and the rest they put behind their paywall.

Im actually thinking that NBC and ESPN will end up splitting the AAC rights with NBC outbidding ESPN for top selection rights. It will work kinda like the FOX-ESPN sharing of the Big 10 (or Big12 or Pac12 for that matter). Basically both will end up with the content they need for about 40-50 million each. Thats small potatoes for either. Its a low risk play for NBC to get back into the game on Saturdays when Notre Dame is on the road and it fills a lot of spaces for ESPN. I also expect for ESPN to buy the third tier stuff for ESPN-Plus.

That $40 - $50 million is not small potatoes anywhere outside of congress. Why haven't any of these OTA networks moved to sign AAC or other G5's before? It could be because they know this content can't compete on Saturdays against the P5. They surely could experiment by purchasing individual games, even from P5 rights holders. Instead they have conceded the entire Saturday landscape to ESPN and Fox. They have sunk so low as to air info-commercials against college football. That kind of programming requires no investment on their part and they don't care too much about ratings.
(This post was last modified: 02-08-2019 10:36 PM by 33laszlo99.)
02-08-2019 10:36 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
33laszlo99 Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 170
Joined: Jun 2014
Reputation: 20
I Root For: Bama
Location:
Post: #77
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 07:57 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 07:44 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 04:20 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 02:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The sheer number of game sis more than will be consumed.

The average college fan likes their school and maybe top 40 vs top 40 games. They will consume 4 a week, 6 if they are nutty. With rare exception top 40 vs top 40 are P5 vs P5 games.

The value of the others is much lower. Sure the AAC has the last couple of years had 3 or 4 compelling games. But they have far more Memphis vs Tulsa, ECU vs SMU, Tulane vs USF that nobody cares about anymore than EMU vs Kent or SJSU vs New Mexico.

The best the AAC can do is package maybe one game a week of potential value. The question is, do the networks care? A big problem the AAC has is they compete with the SEC, ACC, B12 and B1G for eastern and central time zone slots. Their best game is going to be going head to head with Alabama vs Tennessee, Ohio State vs Michigan State, Oklahoma vs West Virginia, Clemson vs Virginia Tech, Wisconsin vs Iowa, South Carolina vs Georgia, Florida State vs North Carolina, or similar set of games at any given time slot.

The best package the AAC could come up with is probably Friday Night football with their best match up of the week. That might have some value. ESPN has MLB playoffs in October (why MACtion is November), so useful weeknight slots are not available. Still niche slot packaging is the best hope to get more than a G5+ contract. Lost of Friday Night games for teams with strong rankings or records.

People keep saying things like that---but that battle has already been fought and the results are in. The ratings over the past 5 years show that the AAC is able to carve out a solid audience DESPITE going head to head against the SEC/ACC/Big10/Big12--often in the less viewed broadcast windows. The AAC ratings are the AAC ratings. All the networks know the numbers and know the AAC is delivering solid audiences for a really low price.
The only real question is will ESPN pony up enough money to buy all the AAC content---or will NBC or some other network peal off some of the more attractive rights by outbidding ESPN?

"that battle has already been fought and the results are in."
I'm looking at the results for 2018 and if I am a corporate advertiser, I would buy into AAC games only if they came cheaply bundles with other ESPN/ABC games. Fox might be able to get similar results for the AAC because they too can bundle ads across their entire lineup of games. The ACC will have to end up with either of the big boys. These are the only two who can make money with them. And the question is "How much?"

Wek by week best ranking for an AAC game.
Wk 1 - 20th ESPNU - UCF vs UConn
Wk 2 - 6th ABC - Ariz. vs Houston split with GaTech vs FSU
Wk 3 - 14th ESPN - GaSt vs Memphis
Wk 4 - 12th ESPN - FAU vs UCF
Wk 5 - 18th ESPN2 - Memphis - Tulane
Wk 6 - 18th ESPN - Tulsa vs Houston
Wk 7 - 4th ABC - UCF vs Memphis split with Wash. vs Oregon (exrta credit 13th ESPN USF vs Tulsa)
Wk 8 - 16th ESPN2 - UCF vs ECU
Wk 9 - 9th ABC - USF vs Houston split with Ariz vs USC (ND vs Navy was 5th, within AAC contract?)
Wk 10 - 12th ESPN - Temple vs UCF
Wk 11 - 22nd ESPN2 - Navy vs UCF
Wk 12 - 3rd ABC - Cincinnati vs UCF
Wk 13 - 12th ESPN - UCF vs USF
WK 14 - 6th ABC - UCF vs Memphis (AAC Championship) 6th place among 9 total games
Fiesta Bowl - 6th among all bowl games ESPN - LSU vs UCF
Military Bowl - 20th among all bowl games ESPN - Cincinnati vs Va Tech

Im not big at all on this strategy. That said---a couple of relevant questions. How much did it cost to get access to the the games that are beating the AAC in the ratings? Are any of those conference rights available this year?


The answer is it would likely cost about 250-300 million to get the rights to one of those conferences---if they were available---which they are not. Basically, the AAC represents an excellent "bang for the buck" property. I continue to think they are a bargain in that 75-100 million dollar range. Although a case could be made they should in the 100-140 million range----my more conservative 75-100 million range just feels more likely to me.

Those definitely are relevant questions. To the second question: no, no P5 rights are on the market this year. The other question is not precisely answerable. I will assume, which you may not wish to do, that the media networks who air college football are earning a profit. Fox Sports and ESPN are paying a combined $440 million per year to The B1G. The other P5 organizations are also operating under big fat payouts. For practical purposes, those P5 conferences are the whole enchilada of college football TV content. G5 and lesser conferences are all but superfluous to the two major sports networks. There is no question that the AAC is head and shoulders above the others... it matters little.

There is a narrow possibility that the AAC could score a big raise this time around, but it's is very iffy. ESPN doesn't really need the AAC in order to sell ads. They want them under contract as a defensive block against Fox, who has no properties in the rich advertising territories of Texas or the Southeast. Fox would gain access to markets in ACC, SEC and Big 12 footprints with an AAC deal. Their interest, or lack of interest in AAC content will tell us if the AAC is being screwed-over by ESPN, or if their content really doesn't attract advertisers when airing head-to-head against P5 content. It may also be an indicator of whether or not Fox believes that their access to Texas may ultimately be gained through realignment. If ESPN counters an offer from Fox, perhaps they actually make money on that content. Disney would not likely allow them to overbid for the rights, just spite Fox, as they did with the Longhorn Network.
02-08-2019 10:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Attackcoog Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 27,377
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 1172
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #78
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 10:36 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 09:53 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 09:43 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Let's say NBC bought an AAC package that included the top pick each week as well as the 2nd pick on weeks where there wasnt a ND home game, along with the football championship game and a selection of conference basketball games.

This could be secured for much cheaper that P5 content and yield a great ROI. Remember that their competitors are paying a great deal more for their content and need huge ratings figures to turn a profit. Buying bargain content means a much lower threshold.

You then sell the rest as a bundle to ESPN where they get some Thurs/Friday games and the rest they put behind their paywall.

Im actually thinking that NBC and ESPN will end up splitting the AAC rights with NBC outbidding ESPN for top selection rights. It will work kinda like the FOX-ESPN sharing of the Big 10 (or Big12 or Pac12 for that matter). Basically both will end up with the content they need for about 40-50 million each. Thats small potatoes for either. Its a low risk play for NBC to get back into the game on Saturdays when Notre Dame is on the road and it fills a lot of spaces for ESPN. I also expect for ESPN to buy the third tier stuff for ESPN-Plus.

That $40 - $50 million is not small potatoes anywhere outside of congress. Why haven't any of these OTA networks moved to sign AAC or other G5's before? It could be because they know this content can't compete on Saturdays against the P5. They surely could experiment by purchasing individual games, even from P5 rights holders. Instead they have conceded the entire Saturday landscape to ESPN and Fox. They have sunk so low as to air info-commercials against college football. That kind of programming requires no investment on their part and they don't care too much about ratings.

Of course the problem with this view is it ignores past history. NBC bid on the AAC in 2013—losing out to ESPN when ESPN exercised its right to match clause. They had also tried for the Pac12 rights losing out when Fox-ESPN joined forces to outbid NBC. It also ignores that the AAC viewer numbers are significantly higher than the other G5 ratings.
(This post was last modified: 02-09-2019 01:14 AM by Attackcoog.)
02-09-2019 01:09 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
P5PACSEC Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 421
Joined: Jul 2018
Reputation: 15
I Root For: P5- Texas Tech
Location: Austin
Post: #79
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
I hope schools who pay $4M for a HC reduce the amount they fleece their students in athletic subsidies.

Ex--- I go to big city U and pay fees to the AD and I don't care about big city U. Why should I fund the AD to get a college education close to home, my spouse and kids?
02-09-2019 02:05 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Attackcoog Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 27,377
Joined: Oct 2011
Reputation: 1172
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #80
RE: AAC and ESPN Exclusive Negotiating Window?
(02-08-2019 10:38 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 07:57 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 07:44 PM)33laszlo99 Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 04:20 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(02-08-2019 02:33 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  The sheer number of game sis more than will be consumed.

The average college fan likes their school and maybe top 40 vs top 40 games. They will consume 4 a week, 6 if they are nutty. With rare exception top 40 vs top 40 are P5 vs P5 games.

The value of the others is much lower. Sure the AAC has the last couple of years had 3 or 4 compelling games. But they have far more Memphis vs Tulsa, ECU vs SMU, Tulane vs USF that nobody cares about anymore than EMU vs Kent or SJSU vs New Mexico.

The best the AAC can do is package maybe one game a week of potential value. The question is, do the networks care? A big problem the AAC has is they compete with the SEC, ACC, B12 and B1G for eastern and central time zone slots. Their best game is going to be going head to head with Alabama vs Tennessee, Ohio State vs Michigan State, Oklahoma vs West Virginia, Clemson vs Virginia Tech, Wisconsin vs Iowa, South Carolina vs Georgia, Florida State vs North Carolina, or similar set of games at any given time slot.

The best package the AAC could come up with is probably Friday Night football with their best match up of the week. That might have some value. ESPN has MLB playoffs in October (why MACtion is November), so useful weeknight slots are not available. Still niche slot packaging is the best hope to get more than a G5+ contract. Lost of Friday Night games for teams with strong rankings or records.

People keep saying things like that---but that battle has already been fought and the results are in. The ratings over the past 5 years show that the AAC is able to carve out a solid audience DESPITE going head to head against the SEC/ACC/Big10/Big12--often in the less viewed broadcast windows. The AAC ratings are the AAC ratings. All the networks know the numbers and know the AAC is delivering solid audiences for a really low price.
The only real question is will ESPN pony up enough money to buy all the AAC content---or will NBC or some other network peal off some of the more attractive rights by outbidding ESPN?

"that battle has already been fought and the results are in."
I'm looking at the results for 2018 and if I am a corporate advertiser, I would buy into AAC games only if they came cheaply bundles with other ESPN/ABC games. Fox might be able to get similar results for the AAC because they too can bundle ads across their entire lineup of games. The ACC will have to end up with either of the big boys. These are the only two who can make money with them. And the question is "How much?"

Wek by week best ranking for an AAC game.
Wk 1 - 20th ESPNU - UCF vs UConn
Wk 2 - 6th ABC - Ariz. vs Houston split with GaTech vs FSU
Wk 3 - 14th ESPN - GaSt vs Memphis
Wk 4 - 12th ESPN - FAU vs UCF
Wk 5 - 18th ESPN2 - Memphis - Tulane
Wk 6 - 18th ESPN - Tulsa vs Houston
Wk 7 - 4th ABC - UCF vs Memphis split with Wash. vs Oregon (exrta credit 13th ESPN USF vs Tulsa)
Wk 8 - 16th ESPN2 - UCF vs ECU
Wk 9 - 9th ABC - USF vs Houston split with Ariz vs USC (ND vs Navy was 5th, within AAC contract?)
Wk 10 - 12th ESPN - Temple vs UCF
Wk 11 - 22nd ESPN2 - Navy vs UCF
Wk 12 - 3rd ABC - Cincinnati vs UCF
Wk 13 - 12th ESPN - UCF vs USF
WK 14 - 6th ABC - UCF vs Memphis (AAC Championship) 6th place among 9 total games
Fiesta Bowl - 6th among all bowl games ESPN - LSU vs UCF
Military Bowl - 20th among all bowl games ESPN - Cincinnati vs Va Tech

Im not big at all on this strategy. That said---a couple of relevant questions. How much did it cost to get access to the the games that are beating the AAC in the ratings? Are any of those conference rights available this year?


The answer is it would likely cost about 250-300 million to get the rights to one of those conferences---if they were available---which they are not. Basically, the AAC represents an excellent "bang for the buck" property. I continue to think they are a bargain in that 75-100 million dollar range. Although a case could be made they should in the 100-140 million range----my more conservative 75-100 million range just feels more likely to me.

Those definitely are relevant questions. To the second question: no, no P5 rights are on the market this year. The other question is not precisely answerable. I will assume, which you may not wish to do, that the media networks who air college football are earning a profit. Fox Sports and ESPN are paying a combined $440 million per year to The B1G. The other P5 organizations are also operating under big fat payouts. For practical purposes, those P5 conferences are the whole enchilada of college football TV content. G5 and lesser conferences are all but superfluous to the two major sports networks. There is no question that the AAC is head and shoulders above the others... it matters little.

There is a narrow possibility that the AAC could score a big raise this time around, but it's is very iffy. ESPN doesn't really need the AAC in order to sell ads. They want them under contract as a defensive block against Fox, who has no properties in the rich advertising territories of Texas or the Southeast. Fox would gain access to markets in ACC, SEC and Big 12 footprints with an AAC deal. Their interest, or lack of interest in AAC content will tell us if the AAC is being screwed-over by ESPN, or if their content really doesn't attract advertisers when airing head-to-head against P5 content. It may also be an indicator of whether or not Fox believes that their access to Texas may ultimately be gained through realignment. If ESPN counters an offer from Fox, perhaps they actually make money on that content. Disney would not likely allow them to overbid for the rights, just spite Fox, as they did with the Longhorn Network.

Dont see FOX as relevant for the AAC. They wont be a bidder. FOX doesnt really have that many slots to fill and best I can tell---has plenty of P5 inventory (Big10, Pac12, and Big12) to fill them. ESPN, NBC, and CBS-Sports are the obvious bidders. The wildcard bidders would be someone like Turner or Amazon.
(This post was last modified: 02-09-2019 02:12 AM by Attackcoog.)
02-09-2019 02:10 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 2 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2019 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2019 MyBB Group.