(02-09-2019 09:09 AM)NMSUPistolPete Wrote: There has been a false impression that NMSU has weakened in recent years; become more vulnerable. But in reality the WAC has become much stronger recently. The competition has simply closed the gap. In years prior (under Menzies), NMSU would lose 10-12 games in a season but still look totally dominant during WAC play. Now lately, it has been NMSU's winning DNA that has allowed them to squeak out wins; with buzzer beater and timely defensive plays. Heck, NMSU has posted records of 28-6 the last two seasons; much more impressive records now. And, they're well on their way to another impressive record this season; 19-4 currently. Yet, winning the WAC has become much more of a chore. NMSU is by no means a sure thing in Las Vegas anymore. Right now, NMSU just knows how to close out games better than the field. And, they will use that winning attitude to navigate the WAC tourney come March. Once one of the other WAC teams figures out how to closeout games in similar fashion, then things will get interesting. NMSU has become everyone's "white whale". So, NMSU gets everyone's best game all season long. If NMSU relaxes mentally, they lose; as they found out against CBU. Thursday night, GCU proved its still not ready to have the target on its back; like NMSU has had for many years. GCU had a leg up on NMSU. GCU wins against UTRGV and NMSU loses to CSUB, and the WAC regular season championship was their's for the taking. And, in one night that tested character, both team's fortunes changed. Now NMSU is in the drivers seat for a conference title; even with a possible lose to GCU tonight.
Some good points about the WAC becoming more competitive. I agree, NMSU has become a better basketball team out-of-conference since Menzies left. The one thing about NMSU, they don't quit and they expect to win these close games. They are tough mentally.
That said, NMSU wins over GCU and CSUB are not something they want to come close to repeating. Against GCU, they went from a three point lead with 30 seconds left to a one point deficit with 13 seconds left due to two turnovers by AJ Harris. They then had a chance to take the lead back, but Terrell Brown missed two free throws with eight seconds left. Fortunately for NMSU, Trey Drechsel missed the front end of a one-and-one with six seconds left and Johnny McCants, who is 5 of 19 on three pointers this season, throws up a prayer from half court at the buzzer. NMSU actually collapsed down the stretch at home and it took a prayer being answered for them to pull it out.
The CSUB game was a complete collapse by the Runners. You know you that the Aggies need turnovers or they need to put you on the line. You know you are going to see full-court pressure and trapping. This is something that the Runners practice all the time. Their defense lives on full court pressure and trapping throughout the game. Their offense sees this every day. Amazingly, NMSU came from 10 down in 90 seconds without hitting a three point shot. That is because the Runners had four turnovers in a 34 second period of time.
Against CBU, it was 68-64 with 1:17 left. CBU went 14 for 14 from the line in the last 1:17 with no turnovers. They didn't collapse at home against a better team. They handled the defensive pressure and they are 4th in the nation in free throw shooting.
NMSU won a close game at UTRGV and lost a close game against Drake on a neutral court. In the last few minutes of a back-and-forth game, NMSU is going to be tough to beat. But they can be beaten if you play disciplined basketball. I think GCU and UVU have the best shot at pulling that off.
Winning the regular season title earns the auto bid to the NIT and a first round matchup with Chicago State. After that, it will not be easy. As you mentioned, the conference is more competitive and the tournament is on a neutral court.