BuffLo up to a six in Joe Lunardi Bracketology today

Cant wait to lose in Muncie tonight!

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/confere...-standings

(02-26-2019 07:50 AM)BullBoy Wrote:  BuffLo up to a six in Joe Lunardi Bracketology today

As I'm sure most or all of us know, SIX is NOT a bad seed.

As someone noted, do not want to get on the 8 - 9 line which means if you win the opening round game, you lose the 2nd round game...

For us old timers and EMU fans, they may still remember 1996 when EMU was a 9 seed and beat Duke fairly easily (Note: Duke was an 8 seed).

EMU played very well against #1 UConn (and I believe LED at the half) before UConn pulled away...

That EMU team was better than the 1991 Sweet 16 team which was a 12 seed and upset a slumping #5 and then beat a team (Penn State) which I believe upset Notre Dame.

UB MBB and UB and CMU WBB were great for the MAC last March.

I'm ready for March Madness. EMU is still in contention to repeat what they did last season with a great stretch run and earn a bye to CLE.

I would love to stick as a six seed.. Maybe five is possible if they sweep through the next seven games leading into the tournament, but anyway you can avoid the 1 or 2 seed on the first weekend, you are in good shape.

(02-26-2019 09:08 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/confere...-standings

Now those numbers look very familiar

CMU W
TOLEDO W
KSU W
UB W
MIAMI W

Miami is BG kryptonite.

Updated MAC tourney projections after 2/26 games, accounting for simulating remaining games and SOS of every team. Toledo surges into the number 2 position with BG upset loss vs Miami

First Round Byes

1. Buffalo 16-2
2. Toledo 13-5
3. Bowling Green 12-6
4. Central Michigan 11-7

First Round Campus Site Games

#12 Western Michigan 2-16 @ #5 Kent State 10-8
#11 Ohio 5-13 @ #6 Akron 9-9
#10 Northern Illinois 7-11 @ #7 Miami 8-10
#9 Ball State 7-11 @ #8 Eastern Michigan 8-10

Teams with a mentionable chance to win the MAC tourney

1. Buffalo 74%
2. Toledo 18%
3. Bowling Green 3%
4. Central Michigan 2%
5. Kent State 2%
6. Akron 1%

All other remaining teams < 1%
--------------------------------

Next games up Fri/Sat and most likely outcomes

Kent State @ Bowling Green CBSSN, Falcons by 4
#21 Buffalo @ Miami-OH CBSSN, Bulls by 14
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois ESPN+, Huskies by 6
Ohio @ Akron ESPN+, Zips by 8
Ball State @ Western Michigan ESPN+, Cardinals by 6
Toledo @ Central Michigan ESPN+, Rockets by 3

(02-27-2019 01:03 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Updated MAC tourney projections after 2/26 games, accounting for simulating remaining games and SOS of every team. Toledo surges into the number 2 position with BG upset loss vs Miami

First Round Byes

1. Buffalo 16-2
2. Toledo 13-5
3. Bowling Green 12-6
4. Central Michigan 11-7

First Round Campus Site Games

#12 Western Michigan 2-16 @ #5 Kent State 10-8
#11 Ohio 5-13 @ #6 Akron 9-9
#10 Northern Illinois 7-11 @ #7 Miami 8-10
#9 Ball State 7-11 @ #8 Eastern Michigan 8-10

Teams with a mentionable chance to win the MAC tourney

1. Buffalo 74%
2. Toledo 18%
3. Bowling Green 3%
4. Central Michigan 2%
5. Kent State 2%
6. Akron 1%

All other remaining teams < 1%
--------------------------------

Next games up Fri/Sat and most likely outcomes

Kent State @ Bowling Green CBSSN, Falcons by 4
#21 Buffalo @ Miami-OH CBSSN, Bulls by 14
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois ESPN+, Huskies by 6
Ohio @ Akron ESPN+, Zips by 8
Ball State @ Western Michigan ESPN+, Cardinals by 6
Toledo @ Central Michigan ESPN+, Rockets by 3

BGSUcks has lost 2 in a row. Taking them over Kent isn't easy to do.
CMU is also playing better... I'm not sure if 3-0 is expected of Toledo over the last 3.

(02-27-2019 08:47 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(02-27-2019 01:03 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  Updated MAC tourney projections after 2/26 games, accounting for simulating remaining games and SOS of every team. Toledo surges into the number 2 position with BG upset loss vs Miami

First Round Byes

1. Buffalo 16-2
2. Toledo 13-5
3. Bowling Green 12-6
4. Central Michigan 11-7

First Round Campus Site Games

#12 Western Michigan 2-16 @ #5 Kent State 10-8
#11 Ohio 5-13 @ #6 Akron 9-9
#10 Northern Illinois 7-11 @ #7 Miami 8-10
#9 Ball State 7-11 @ #8 Eastern Michigan 8-10

Teams with a mentionable chance to win the MAC tourney

1. Buffalo 74%
2. Toledo 18%
3. Bowling Green 3%
4. Central Michigan 2%
5. Kent State 2%
6. Akron 1%

All other remaining teams < 1%
--------------------------------

Next games up Fri/Sat and most likely outcomes

Kent State @ Bowling Green CBSSN, Falcons by 4
#21 Buffalo @ Miami-OH CBSSN, Bulls by 14
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois ESPN+, Huskies by 6
Ohio @ Akron ESPN+, Zips by 8
Ball State @ Western Michigan ESPN+, Cardinals by 6
Toledo @ Central Michigan ESPN+, Rockets by 3

BGSUcks has lost 2 in a row. Taking them over Kent isn't easy to do.
CMU is also playing better... I'm not sure if 3-0 is expected of Toledo over the last 3.

Big game in Mt Pleasant this weekend. Winner will likely slide into the 3 seed at worst and could very well end up being the 2 seed the way BG is playing and their schedule down the stretch. If they lose to KSU this weekend, they may very well finish at 11-7 in the MAC as they finish @Akron and @UB.

CMU and Toledo will be favored in their last two games (NIU, @WMU and EMU, WMU respectively), so provided there is no upset in those games, Saturday's winner will finish either 13-5 (Toledo) or 12-6 (CMU). Toledo is more likely to wind up the two seed than CMU, but it may very well end up being BG and KSU who end up battling it out for the 4 seed when you look at the schedule.

Avoiding being the 4 seed would be ideal, but I feel it's pretty irrelevant whether you are a 2 or 3 seed. That match-up is played on a neutral court. Even if you feel your team matches up best against one the current 6-8 seeds, who are all 7-8, it's impossible to predict where that team will end up landing.

(02-27-2019 10:21 AM)kreed5120 Wrote:  Avoiding being the 4 seed would be ideal, but I feel it's pretty irrelevant whether you are a 2 or 3 seed. That match-up is played on a neutral court. Even if you feel your team matches up best against one the current 6-8 seeds, who are all 7-8, it's impossible to predict where that team will end up landing.

Yes, with the removal of the double bye, 2 seed vs. 3 seed is really pretty insignificant, other than you should have a weaker opponent for your first game in Cleveland. As it sits now the two seed would be getting the winner of NIU/Miami instead of the winner of Akron/Ohio. Not a gigantic difference, but I'd still rather play Miami than Akron.

Miami was down to UB 18-0 five minutes in, but clawed back to within 3 with just over two minutes to go. Bulls pulled it out 77-69, though it was the best crowd we've had in ages.

(03-01-2019 10:15 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  Miami was down to UB 18-0 five minutes in, but clawed back to within 3 with just over two minutes to go. Bulls pulled it out 77-69, though it was the best crowd we've had in ages.

Really has to encourage you as a Miami fan that they were competitive after the start. Good sign for MAC tourney I would think.

(03-02-2019 12:36 AM)MaddDawgz02 Wrote:  

(03-01-2019 10:15 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  Miami was down to UB 18-0 five minutes in, but clawed back to within 3 with just over two minutes to go. Bulls pulled it out 77-69, though it was the best crowd we've had in ages.

Really has to encourage you as a Miami fan that they were competitive after the start. Good sign for MAC tourney I would think.

To an extent. Much of our comeback was dependent on UB missing a lot of wide open shots, though the offense turned it on eventually.

(03-01-2019 10:15 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  Miami was down to UB 18-0 five minutes in, but clawed back to within 3 with just over two minutes to go. Bulls pulled it out 77-69, though it was the best crowd we've had in ages.

My friend watched the game with me and said... "Are there fans in attendance? And if so, how can they see walking to their seats?" On TV the crowd is a black abiss. Is Millete still that dark after the renovations?

(03-02-2019 11:24 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(03-01-2019 10:15 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  Miami was down to UB 18-0 five minutes in, but clawed back to within 3 with just over two minutes to go. Bulls pulled it out 77-69, though it was the best crowd we've had in ages.

My friend watched the game with me and said... "Are there fans in attendance? And if so, how can they see walking to their seats?" On TV the crowd is a black abiss. Is Millete still that dark after the renovations?

No,it is not dark at all.

(03-02-2019 11:24 AM)UofToledoFans Wrote:  

(03-01-2019 10:15 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  Miami was down to UB 18-0 five minutes in, but clawed back to within 3 with just over two minutes to go. Bulls pulled it out 77-69, though it was the best crowd we've had in ages.

My friend watched the game with me and said... "Are there fans in attendance? And if so, how can they see walking to their seats?" On TV the crowd is a black abiss. Is Millete still that dark after the renovations?

They replaced the lights above the court so the brightness makes everything else seem darker than normal, there are lights around the seating bowl but they keep them partially off for games. Last night was the first time in a while we've had people sitting in the top half of the seating bowl.

Need a new thread. These are March games.