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A conference of A10 and MVC privates would it better for the schools.
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #21
RE: A conference of A10 and MVC privates would it better for the schools.
(02-17-2019 06:35 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  These stats are important but St. Bony is an original D1 basketball school, its sole representative in upstate NY and has new basketball facilities.

They aren't going anywhere.

St. Bony is in the boonies. Saying they constitute a NY presence is like saying Humboldt State gives you a California presence (It's only an hour or so from Redding is about the same as it's only an hour or so from Buffalo).

This thread is based on a fantasy world, as are most of the realignment threads, which operate under the premise that somehow you can encourage the weakest members to just leave. What posters don't get is these schools are not at-will contract employees, but full equity partners. The only way to cut ties from them is to dissolve the company (i.e., conference) and form another without them. The last time that happened was when the PCC became the Pac-6 (now Pac-12) effectively allowing the California schools to get rid of Idaho by dissolving and reforming in a new conference. (Well the MWC probably qualifies for this and the "new" Big East, but these were more like 50% breakaways rather than dissolve and reform operations.)

NCAA credits, traditions, the very name A-10 (and whatever value that has) keeps the conference together. So yes, St. Bony and La Salle are safe. But that was not the point of my post. Rather I was throwing cold water on the idea that the MVC privates were somehow on equal footing and value with the A10 schools.

(02-16-2019 11:37 PM)BirdstheWord Wrote:  I'm not sure about the others, but you've got Bradley's endowment about 1.2 billion dollars too high. Indiana State's average basketball attendance from the previous year was 3,945 and ISU's was 5,943.

And using SAT scores for Illinois schools isn't the best because most students will have taken the ACT.

You are correct on Bradley's endowment it's a typo $305M. I will correct my sheet (it happened when I transferred numbers from one page to a shorter form for presentation here). The others figures are correct. That lowers Bradley's index 2 points (ouch).

Attendance reported in the media (and school websites) is not the same as what is reported to the Department of Education. All full time undergraduate equivalent enrollments are what is reported to the US Government as required by law. I notice that almost every school has some difference between their advertised and the official government numbers (always lower). But the Department of Education has a standard and it puts all schools on equal reporting terms, so I use that.

The apparent discrepancy is especially large at "3rd tier" directional schools, probably due to larger numbers of part time and non traditional students. Indiana State's difference is typical for that sort of school, a similar lower "hard count" exists for almost all similar public schools.

Basketball attendance is taken from the 2017-18 season as reported to the NCAA. The last complete year reported. These numbers fluctuate annually, and so you only use them for ball park. I would look at a 5 year rolling average were I evaluating a school, rather than a single year snap shot. But for this presentation one year was enough to see roughly where a school fits. (A large single year jump is actually a bad thing because it shows that fan base requires success, as you have a higher proportion of "victory" fans than "loyal school" fans.)

The SAT and ACT actually parallel each other. Schools use a pretty standard score equalizer between the two. If I switched to ACT the Illinois schools would slot exactly the same on Admission Index. (The organization I pulled the numbers from has both ... it's just as silly in California to look at the ACT, as we are 99% SAT State; but lo and behold the ACT slots our schools exactly the same as SAT.) The important thing is not the specific score (again you can quibble about a few points and fluctuations), but the Admission Index tier.

Admission tier is where St. Bony and La Salle look really bad. St. Bony, like Sienna gets a lot of people in the arena. It's the only show in town ... literally.
02-17-2019 02:15 PM
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DavidSt Offline
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Post: #22
RE: A conference of A10 and MVC privates would it better for the schools.
(02-17-2019 02:15 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  
(02-17-2019 06:35 AM)Kit-Cat Wrote:  These stats are important but St. Bony is an original D1 basketball school, its sole representative in upstate NY and has new basketball facilities.

They aren't going anywhere.

St. Bony is in the boonies. Saying they constitute a NY presence is like saying Humboldt State gives you a California presence (It's only an hour or so from Redding is about the same as it's only an hour or so from Buffalo).

This thread is based on a fantasy world, as are most of the realignment threads, which operate under the premise that somehow you can encourage the weakest members to just leave. What posters don't get is these schools are not at-will contract employees, but full equity partners. The only way to cut ties from them is to dissolve the company (i.e., conference) and form another without them. The last time that happened was when the PCC became the Pac-6 (now Pac-12) effectively allowing the California schools to get rid of Idaho by dissolving and reforming in a new conference. (Well the MWC probably qualifies for this and the "new" Big East, but these were more like 50% breakaways rather than dissolve and reform operations.)

NCAA credits, traditions, the very name A-10 (and whatever value that has) keeps the conference together. So yes, St. Bony and La Salle are safe. But that was not the point of my post. Rather I was throwing cold water on the idea that the MVC privates were somehow on equal footing and value with the A10 schools.

(02-16-2019 11:37 PM)BirdstheWord Wrote:  I'm not sure about the others, but you've got Bradley's endowment about 1.2 billion dollars too high. Indiana State's average basketball attendance from the previous year was 3,945 and ISU's was 5,943.

And using SAT scores for Illinois schools isn't the best because most students will have taken the ACT.

You are correct on Bradley's endowment it's a typo $305M. I will correct my sheet (it happened when I transferred numbers from one page to a shorter form for presentation here). The others figures are correct. That lowers Bradley's index 2 points (ouch).

Attendance reported in the media (and school websites) is not the same as what is reported to the Department of Education. All full time undergraduate equivalent enrollments are what is reported to the US Government as required by law. I notice that almost every school has some difference between their advertised and the official government numbers (always lower). But the Department of Education has a standard and it puts all schools on equal reporting terms, so I use that.

The apparent discrepancy is especially large at "3rd tier" directional schools, probably due to larger numbers of part time and non traditional students. Indiana State's difference is typical for that sort of school, a similar lower "hard count" exists for almost all similar public schools.

Basketball attendance is taken from the 2017-18 season as reported to the NCAA. The last complete year reported. These numbers fluctuate annually, and so you only use them for ball park. I would look at a 5 year rolling average were I evaluating a school, rather than a single year snap shot. But for this presentation one year was enough to see roughly where a school fits. (A large single year jump is actually a bad thing because it shows that fan base requires success, as you have a higher proportion of "victory" fans than "loyal school" fans.)

The SAT and ACT actually parallel each other. Schools use a pretty standard score equalizer between the two. If I switched to ACT the Illinois schools would slot exactly the same on Admission Index. (The organization I pulled the numbers from has both ... it's just as silly in California to look at the ACT, as we are 99% SAT State; but lo and behold the ACT slots our schools exactly the same as SAT.) The important thing is not the specific score (again you can quibble about a few points and fluctuations), but the Admission Index tier.

Admission tier is where St. Bony and La Salle look really bad. St. Bony, like Sienna gets a lot of people in the arena. It's the only show in town ... literally.


The PCC broke up because the schools were calling each others as cheaters in football. It had nothing to do with Idaho and Montana.
02-17-2019 02:56 PM
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LostInSpace Offline
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Post: #23
RE: A conference of A10 and MVC privates would it better for the schools.
(02-15-2019 08:53 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Here is data for A10, and MVC. I also threw in a few Candidates from the OVC (Belmont, Murray State), Horizon and Summit (WIU was for comparison of Football to set the correct data for SIU and Illinois State) plus UDel (CAA) and Sienna College (MAAC).
[Image: 71a725a6-9920-4bac-9d67-28c98b0c5380.png]

As you can see La Salle and St. Bonaventure are definite negatives for the A10, and their Institutional values + attendance are both negative on my point scale. Duquesne is not much help either, rate only "2".

Note: none of the MVC schools crack the top 11 of the A10, really 12 with Davidson. But Davidson is very small student body and that shrinks the size of their budget. I think the A10 would like to see Davidson grow from 1,700 to 2,500 undergrads. That would probably move them up the list as far as budget goes. They are good bang for the buck.

If the A10 could ever jettison the dead weight three schools emerge as serious candidates:

UDel, UIC and LUC. These are strong Institutions and have the depth to support their Basketball programs. These three are a clear cut above all the other entrants. Although I see no possible way it could be done swapping Duquesne, La Salle and St. Bony for those three would be a step up. IUC needs to build their MBB program (they have the resources, so no excuses) and LUC should grow their department at least $4M/yr to more in line with the A10 -- they have an impressive over 10,000 full time undergrad population, big for a private school plus the Chicago market (again no excuses, they have the resources).

Note: Bradley misses the cut, as do Valpo and Drake. Belmont and Sienna as institutions do not impress. Evansville is in decline as is Detroit Mercy. The rural public schools of the MVC are facing a crisis we see in the larger Northern US of dwindling numbers of qualified and interested students. That pretty much kills them as candidates (Illinois State did point well however. I threw in South Dakota State, who has similar numbers to the other Dakota schools in terms of school rating and MBB attendance (maybe +/- a point or two); they came out a "-1" which means none of those schools has enough value to talk about.

So bottom line, the A10 school, excepting 3 privates who are dead weight (Duquesne should be better than they are with their resources), are a clear cut above everything in the MVC, and only LUC approaches the A10. Academically the A10 is much stronger than the almost universally low standards of the MVC schools (LUC and Drake the exception).

Unless something has changed, and as far as I know nothing has, Delaware has no interest in the A10. They rebuffed interest from the A10 in the mid 1990s when the conference still sponsored football. Since Temple, St. Joe’s and La Salle left the ECC in the 1980s Delaware hasn’t even played the current and former Philly area A10 schools all that often.

While La Salle has contributed little to A10 basketball obviously neither they nor Bonas are getting expelled.
02-17-2019 04:55 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: A conference of A10 and MVC privates would it better for the schools.
You guys are being really myopic in these responses.

DavidSt,

Yes scandal brought down the PCC, and the concept of the modern research Pac was not there yet. PE Departments ran Athletics -- the modern Athletic Department had not formed at many schools -- and school President's and Chancellors didn't care, as it was a small item. But it was clear at the time the California schools and also Washington, wanted to be separate from the less prestigious Mountain State schools.

Today the world is different, Presidents and Chancellors decide these matters. Conferences are more comprehensive, and have auxiliary organizations that in some bind faculty together among schools. Athletic Departments may be the visible side, but on realignment they are only one lobbying part. The money is so big, and the impact on the school so great, that those decisions have been removed from the PE (now Athletic) Directors and placed with the Presidents and Chancellors. The ability to simply dissolve a conference is pretty much impossible.

LostInSpace,

There is zero evidence and zero chance, as I stated, St. Bony or La Salle (or the other dead weight Duquesne) will get dropped. The A-10 is not looking for members.

I ran the numbers on all plausible schools except James Madison, which I judged Football driven (think MAC) so ignored, and it was UIC and UDel that came out on top with LUC a reasonable 3rd. Those are the only ones that fit in the fantasy realignment.

And it is fantasy the idea of splitting up the A10 and forming a new 10 or 12 school conference, or forming 2 conferences. As you can see the A10 has the top 10 budget schools available at this level. Plus Duquesne, Davidson and La Salle are hardly different in budgeting terms than UDel, UIC, Sienna, Illinois State, Bradly, Drake, Valpo and UDM, and Davidson is as good as any of them Academically.

So given the A10 already has 11 of the "right schools" as members, and Duqeusne at least acts as a bridge to Dayton and St. Louis, why would they want to change anything? What benefit is there?

UDel has attractive numbers, but when it comes to athletics they are as ambitious as UC Davs, which is to say they are not. My exercise was not to suggest UDel for the A-10 as probable or plausible -- your reading comprehension problem led you to that conclusion I suspect -- but rather to show that schools outside the MVC represent better partners for the A-10 schools than any in the MVC now. Hopefully you get the point and stop complaining about things I did not say nor suggest have any chance of happening.
(This post was last modified: Today 02:03 PM by Stugray2.)
02-17-2019 05:38 PM
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Post: #25
RE: A conference of A10 and MVC privates would it better for the schools.
(02-17-2019 05:38 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  You guys are being really myopic in these responses.

DavidSt,

Yes scandal brought down the PCC, and the concept of the modern research Pac was not there yet. PE Departments ran Athletics -- the modern Athletic Department had not formed at many schools -- and school President's and Chancellors didn't care, as it was a small item. But it was clear at the time the California schools and also Washington, wanted to be separate from the less prestigious Mountain State schools.

Today the world is different, Presidents and Chancellors decide these matters. Conferences are more comprehensive, and have auxiliary organizations that in some bind faculty together among schools. Athletic Departments may be the visible side, but on realignment they are only one lobbying part. The money is so big, and the impact on the school so great, that those decisions have been removed from the PE (not Athletic) Directors and placed with the Presidents and Chancellors. The ability to simply dissolve a conference is pretty much impossible.

LostInSpace,

There is zero evidence and zero chance, as I stated, St. Bony or La Salle (or the other dead weight Duquesne) will get dropped. The -10 is not looking for members.

I ran the numbers on all plausible schools except James Madison, which I judged Football driven (think MAC) so ignored, and it was UIC and UDel that came out on top with LUC a reasonable 3rd. Those are the only ones that fit in the fantasy realignment.

And it is fantasy the idea of splitting up the A10 and forming a new 10 or 12 school conference, or forming 2 conferences. As you can see the A10 has the top 10 budget schools available at this level. Plus Duquesne, Davidson and La Salle are hardly different in budgeting terms than UDel, UIC, Sienna, Illinois State, Bradly, Drake, Valpo and UDM, and Davidson is as good as any of them Academically.

So given the A10 already has 11 of the "right schools" as members, and Duqeusne at least acts as a bridge to Dayton and St. Louis, why would they want to change anything? What benefit is there?

UDel has attractive numbers, but when it comes to athletics they are as ambitious as UC Davs, which is to say they are not. My exercise was not to suggest UDel for the A-10 as probable or plausible -- your reading comprehension problem led you to that conclusion I suspect -- but rather to show that schools outside the MVC represent better partners for the A-10 schools than any in the MVC now. Hopefully you get the point and stop complaining about things I did not say nor suggest have any chance of happening.

Just wanted to point out that in the case of Delaware the parties did consider coming together with Delaware ultimately choosing to pass on the opportunity. The premise of the thread is ridiculous as are all of the rest of the A10 should consider adding (insert schools that are bad geographic, institutional or athletic fits or some combination of the three here) threads. In fact the only school the A10 considered when Davidson was added on your list is Siena. If by some chance they find themselves needing to replace teams in the future the A10 is going to raid the MAAC. But thanks for the wall of words to otherwise repeatedly state the obvious.
(This post was last modified: 02-17-2019 08:41 PM by LostInSpace.)
02-17-2019 08:27 PM
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EvanJ Offline
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Post: #26
RE: A conference of A10 and MVC privates would it better for the schools.
Delaware has an average Men's Basketball attendance of 1,890. When they hosted Notre Dame last season, they got 4,737. They did produce Super Bowl MVP Joe Flacco and WNBA MVP Elena Delle Donne. For the most part, teams in the northeast and New England don't have good attendance outside the top conferences, and even Fordham has low attendance. Siena gets a great attendance of 5,735, whereas the next three highest averages in the MAAC combined are 4,929, and the MAAC average is 1,669. For A10 teams from Virginia, North Carolina, or west, going to Delaware would be a shorter trip than going to Siena. Delaware and Siena would struggle in the A10 in Men's Basketball. If 2 teams left the A10, I think they would be better off with 12 than adding somebody.
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Post: #27
RE: A conference of A10 and MVC privates would it better for the schools.
Both the MVC and A10 have been weaken with conference realignment and normal ups and down cycles. That said, believe the A10 is in better position to simply raid the MVC if appropriate. The A10 will eventually loss a team or two to the Big East, UMass will eventually find an all sports home. The question on if it's a 14 or 12 team conference will depend on a lot of things. Bet there is zero change of a private merger. The A10 has recently added some public Virginia universities as George Mason and VCU. Guess you have to say the CAA has also been weaken and the A10 could raid a team from the CAA as NE UAlbany etc, Patriot as BU, or the MAAC as Seina.
(This post was last modified: Today 11:32 AM by Steve1981.)
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