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What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
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Fighting Muskie Online
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Post: #1
What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
A lot of folks on here are pretty savvy when it comes to the value of media packages so I'm curious what your thoughts are regarding the tv value of these start up pro leagues? Who might bid for them to augment their current sports portfolios.

I'm also curious if anyone plans on watching either of these leagues and what your motivation is: you just love football, you want to follow the careers of players from your favorite college team, etc
02-01-2019 04:00 PM
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No Bull Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-01-2019 04:00 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  A lot of folks on here are pretty savvy when it comes to the value of media packages so I'm curious what your thoughts are regarding the tv value of these start up pro leagues? Who might bid for them to augment their current sports portfolios.

I'm also curious if anyone plans on watching either of these leagues and what your motivation is: you just love football, you want to follow the careers of players from your favorite college team, etc

I love football...and want to see some former UCF players on the field so I plan on watching some AAF. Pretty excited about it.
02-01-2019 04:06 PM
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gulfcoastgal Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?

02-01-2019 04:09 PM
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TexasTerror Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
I'm impressed with how good a job that the Alliance did in lining up TV partners.

The XFL will have to step it up in order to secure TV deals (at least as far as exposure, not sure what the $$$ looks like) that is comparable to the AAF.
02-01-2019 04:55 PM
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DoubleRSU Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
Have any financials been released? I doubt these networks are paying much to the AAF. The first CBS game will probably do good ratings. Just depends on the quality of play. One of their goals was to shorten the game time and have fewer commercials. Good luck to both of them. No way both will stick around though. Personally I think the XFL is stupid for playing in NFL cities in some of those stadiums.
02-01-2019 05:06 PM
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johnbragg Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
Biggest nugget I took from that: AAF has is on NFL Network. Which means they've made some kind of arrangement with the NFL.

That's a pretty valuable thing right there. If the NFL sees value in the existence of the AAF, that could ensure the survival of the AAF.

Anyone know what "BR Live" is?
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2019 05:27 PM by johnbragg.)
02-01-2019 05:25 PM
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Cyniclone Online
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-01-2019 05:25 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Biggest nugget I took from that: AAF has is on NFL Network. Which means they've made some kind of arrangement with the NFL.

That's a pretty valuable thing right there. If the NFL sees value in the existence of the AAF, that could ensure the survival of the AAF.

Anyone know what "BR Live" is?

Bleacher Report Live, a streaming service.

It probably doesn't hurt that the AAF has some sort of relationship with the NFL, but that's no guarantee of success either (WLAF/NFL Europe)
02-01-2019 05:33 PM
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indianasniff Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
$0.75
Maybe a buck
02-01-2019 05:39 PM
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Cyniclone Online
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
My question is why are so many people in positions of power so enamored with spring football when history shows a field littered with failed attempts?

In the past 30-some years, the following leagues made a go of non-fall football and failed quickly:
USFL
WLAF
American wing of the CFL
Original XFL
UFL

That's not counting the leagues that never made it to the field. And yet there's the AAF starting next week, the revived XFL in 2020 and the Freedom Football League with a tentative 2020 start date.

What's the appeal? There's plenty of evidence that there isn't enough interest in spring football (or if there is, it's abstract and largely unmoved by the many attempts at it to date), and yet they keep trying, thinking they can find the magic formula to succeed where nobody else has before. Why is this such a white whale?
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2019 06:02 PM by Cyniclone.)
02-01-2019 06:02 PM
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DoubleRSU Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
The USFL as a whole was not a failure. I believe they would still be around had they stuck to the spring and not try to “merge” with the NFL. Sure, they had some awful franchises, but they were still young. Not all the early NFL/AFL teams are still around.
02-01-2019 06:28 PM
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Renandpat Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-01-2019 05:06 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  Have any financials been released? I doubt these networks are paying much to the AAF. The first CBS game will probably do good ratings. Just depends on the quality of play. One of their goals was to shorten the game time and have fewer commercials. Good luck to both of them. No way both will stick around though. Personally I think the XFL is stupid for playing in NFL cities in some of those stadiums.
Financials are not out for either league. We do know that the XFL is paying Oliver Luck $20M/year with another $10M in bonus opportunities and the rumor that Vince is willing to spend $500M in the first three seasons.

As for the AAF, even less is known. We know that Chernin Group, Shaq, former Washington DC Mayor Adrian Fenty, and Peter Thiel's Founders Fund are investors, but not to what levels they each are involved. Chernin and Founders Fund are venture capitalists, so while they have deep pockets, they also may have a smaller level of optimism and may ask for their money back at any time.

AAF is definitely splitting ad revenue in exchange for the airtime for TNT and NFLN, or just buying time on CBSSN outright. Last week's Sports Business Journal "First Look" podcast took a deep dive into both leagues for about 25 minutes.
Link via Soundcloud

In the staff's discussion of the AAF, one of them (Austin Karp) talked about the AAF's inability to sell to advertisers due to the large majority of games airing on CBSSN. Since the CBSSN is not rated, the advertisers don't know the ROI when buying ad time. Terry Lefton said that while the AAF may have selected the right markets, Karp returned that the markets which typically want more football are in fact markets with NFL teams already. Lefton still added that the overhead is too great for much success for either league.

The addition of both TBS and NFLN illustrates their need for demographics and data to sell spots on CBSSN. In addition, now partnering with the B/R Live app puts in question the AAF's own app, which Ebersol has been touting since when they first announced the league on CBS Saturday Morning. Partnering with both Turner and NFLN is an unforeseen expense

I'll watch Week 1, but I question the quality of play as they only had the same amount of time which XFL teams had nearly 20 years ago.
02-01-2019 07:58 PM
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MissouriStateBears Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
Alliance is close to being the right set up for a spring development league for the NFL. Replace Arizona with St. Louis and Atlanta with Hartford.

Then put 4 teams from the NFL where they can send players to develop along with regional players idea that the Alliance currently has.

Salt Lake - Denver, Arizona, Seattle, Minnesota
San Antonio - Dallas, Houston, New Orleans, Detroit
San Diego- Los Angeles, Los Angeles, Oakland, San Francisco
St. Louis - Kansas City, Chicago, Indianapolis, Green Bay

Birmingham - Atlanta, Buffalo, Baltimore, Washington
Hartford - New England. New York, New York, Philadelphia
Memphis - Tennessee, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh
Orlando - Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay, Carolina
02-01-2019 08:01 PM
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Renandpat Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-01-2019 06:28 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  The USFL as a whole was not a failure. I believe they would still be around had they stuck to the spring and not try to “merge” with the NFL. Sure, they had some awful franchises, but they were still young. Not all the early NFL/AFL teams are still around.

The USFL was still bound to fail within two seasons. Expenses were too high as they got into a bidding war with the NFL for talent and they were losing $30M/season even with getting cash infusions via expansion fees.

More importantly, the league was running the franchises in both Chicago and Los Angeles after going through multiple owners in both cities which were financially draining. Chicago even had an exchange with the Arizona Wranglers of rosters and coaching staffs at one point. The ABC contract required that there were teams in NY/NJ, Chicago, and Los Angeles. Billionaires like Taubman started to bail as they knew it wasn't sustainable. The Jeff Pearlman book is good, but not a complete story of the financial disaray even before the decision to move to the Fall.
02-01-2019 08:08 PM
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-01-2019 06:02 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  My question is why are so many people in positions of power so enamored with spring football when history shows a field littered with failed attempts?

In the past 30-some years, the following leagues made a go of non-fall football and failed quickly:
USFL
WLAF
American wing of the CFL
Original XFL
UFL

That's not counting the leagues that never made it to the field. And yet there's the AAF starting next week, the revived XFL in 2020 and the Freedom Football League with a tentative 2020 start date.

What's the appeal? There's plenty of evidence that there isn't enough interest in spring football (or if there is, it's abstract and largely unmoved by the many attempts at it to date), and yet they keep trying, thinking they can find the magic formula to succeed where nobody else has before. Why is this such a white whale?

USFL succeeded immensely and then tried to play in the Fall. That was it's downfall. Had it lasted a few more years, they would have forced the NFL into a merger. It would be the Jacksonville Bulls instead of Jaguars; Baltimore Stars instead of Ravens; Memphis Showboats instead of Titans.
02-01-2019 08:08 PM
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Jjoey52 Offline
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What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
The NFL has needed a developmental league ever since they killed NFL Europe. The willingness of the AAF to be a second banana will probably ensure they will go for at least a few years, The XFL is going to have a long road to get viability.


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02-01-2019 08:12 PM
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Renandpat Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-01-2019 06:02 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  My question is why are so many people in positions of power so enamored with spring football when history shows a field littered with failed attempts?

In the past 30-some years, the following leagues made a go of non-fall football and failed quickly:
USFL
WLAF
American wing of the CFL
Original XFL
UFL

That's not counting the leagues that never made it to the field. And yet there's the AAF starting next week, the revived XFL in 2020 and the Freedom Football League with a tentative 2020 start date.

What's the appeal? There's plenty of evidence that there isn't enough interest in spring football (or if there is, it's abstract and largely unmoved by the many attempts at it to date), and yet they keep trying, thinking they can find the magic formula to succeed where nobody else has before. Why is this such a white whale?

Most of these Spring Leagues also fall back to the list of cities which hosted a team and failed: Birmingham, Memphis, Orlando, Tempe and expect the result to change meanwhile the demographics have changed and in some cities, the economy has changed.

Those who try to start leagues believe there is a desire for football year round, but also fail to comprehend that people's disposable income is still finite and coming off of holiday presents, many aren't going to buy seats, even cheap ones for possibly $hitty football. People don't go to Arena or Indoor football leagues don't draw like they used to plus they compete with the Amazon Primes and Netflixs now.

Remember, there still are thousands of dudes who think they still have NFL talent, and those who can no longer play think the can coach better than those currently there. They're easy marks for tryout fees and the like. Just go on Facebook and visit the vaporware league pages and see how many poor fools think they can use it as a springboard to NFL fame and fortune.
02-01-2019 08:22 PM
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Renandpat Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-01-2019 08:08 PM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  
(02-01-2019 06:02 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  My question is why are so many people in positions of power so enamored with spring football when history shows a field littered with failed attempts?

In the past 30-some years, the following leagues made a go of non-fall football and failed quickly:
USFL
WLAF
American wing of the CFL
Original XFL
UFL

That's not counting the leagues that never made it to the field. And yet there's the AAF starting next week, the revived XFL in 2020 and the Freedom Football League with a tentative 2020 start date.

What's the appeal? There's plenty of evidence that there isn't enough interest in spring football (or if there is, it's abstract and largely unmoved by the many attempts at it to date), and yet they keep trying, thinking they can find the magic formula to succeed where nobody else has before. Why is this such a white whale?

USFL succeeded immensely and then tried to play in the Fall. That was it's downfall. Had it lasted a few more years, they would have forced the NFL into a merger. It would be the Jacksonville Bulls instead of Jaguars; Baltimore Stars instead of Ravens; Memphis Showboats instead of Titans.
Read my post. Success isn't losing nearly $100M in the seasons. You have fallen for the myth that the man currently in the White House killed the USFL. Even as a Dem, he didn't kill it. The USFL payrolls were about 90% of an NFL teams, yet they only had 10% of the TV revenue at best, more like, 7% of the TV revenue. The constant moving of franchises made ABC offer less for season three due to the financial messes in Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston, Detroit and Washington.
Source:http://articles.latimes.com/1985-04-20/sports/sp-21844_1_usfl-owners
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2019 08:44 PM by Renandpat.)
02-01-2019 08:30 PM
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Fighting Muskie Online
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
If they can survive a few seasons I think they can have value. The relationship between NFL Network and AAF makes me think that the NFL might be willing to prop them up for programming filler for their network and as a feeder system.

XFL is a bit of a mystery. They definitely cultivating an image as the anti-NFL while the AAF says "hey if you like football watch us too!". I think they need a media partner with no NFL relationship which means going outside the big 4. Could they be the pioneer that partners exclusively with a streaming service like Amazon?
02-01-2019 09:25 PM
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Renandpat Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-01-2019 09:25 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  If they can survive a few seasons I think they can have value. The relationship between NFL Network and AAF makes me think that the NFL might be willing to prop them up for programming filler for their network and as a feeder system.

XFL is a bit of a mystery. They definitely cultivating an image as the anti-NFL while the AAF says "hey if you like football watch us too!". I think they need a media partner with no NFL relationship which means going outside the big 4. Could they be the pioneer that partners exclusively with a streaming service like Amazon?
AAF's problem still is how quickly their investors want their investment back and they still seem to be gate driven like nearly every North American sport outside the NFL, MLB, and NBA. If investors want their money back after year two, they are done.

Charlie Ebersol seems to have done a much better job than Brian Woods and his FXFL/The Spring League, which seemed to be built to survive long enough for the NFL to buy him out and cover his losses. Ebersol has publicly stated the AAF is, a tech company first, so they think they can sell their proprietary tracking data to leagues, especially the NFL. They also are trying to connect themselves with gambling (as is the XFL), however, only eight states now allow sports gambling plus only seven states allow sports gaming with NM allowing it in Native American casinos to make it eight. More importantly, no states have an "Integrity Fee", which would give the leagues a cut of the handle. Plus, AAF is in Alabama and Arizona, which prohibit daily fantasy, another AAF bragging point.

XFL still has Vince McMahon behind it. When he announced the XFL relaunch, WWE stock was like at $27/share. it's now at $82. He's got much more to use if he wants. Plus, his relationships with ESPN/Disney, Comcast/NBCUniversal, and "new FOX" are all in his favor to getting a TV deal which actually pays him. XFL will offer larger contracts than the CFL and AAF, so better name coaches will go there. AAF already lost coaches like Brad Childress, Jon Kitna, and Carnell Williams during their training camp.
02-01-2019 11:00 PM
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hawghiggs Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
I think that the AAF has a solid shot. They need to expand by four to eight teams in the next couple of season. I'd choose the following cities.

1, Dallas
2, St. Louis
3, New Orleans
4, Las Vegas
5, Houston
6, Oklahoma City
7, Little Rock
8, Kansa city

This could quickly develop into a solid bus league.
02-02-2019 12:38 AM
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