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What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
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BullsFanInTX Offline
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Post: #41
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-02-2019 09:13 PM)Renandpat Wrote:  
(02-02-2019 07:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(02-01-2019 06:02 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  My question is why are so many people in positions of power so enamored with spring football when history shows a field littered with failed attempts?

In the past 30-some years, the following leagues made a go of non-fall football and failed quickly:
USFL
WLAF
American wing of the CFL
Original XFL
UFL

That's not counting the leagues that never made it to the field. And yet there's the AAF starting next week, the revived XFL in 2020 and the Freedom Football League with a tentative 2020 start date.

What's the appeal? There's plenty of evidence that there isn't enough interest in spring football (or if there is, it's abstract and largely unmoved by the many attempts at it to date), and yet they keep trying, thinking they can find the magic formula to succeed where nobody else has before. Why is this such a white whale?

Really?

Compating the freedom football league to the AAF? The FFL will never even play a game and is just an idea of some former players. Sounds like a league for NFL retirees and never has beens to participate in.

The AAF has solid TV deals all around. Every game is televised nationally on a major network or live streaming. NFL minds and fingerprints all over it. Solid fringe NFL talent all over the league. 70 percent of the current players have been on an NFL roster within the past 18 months. Who knows what will happen with the XFL. Not a lot has been announced yet, other than franchise locations and that they were seeking TV deals. But, the comparison to the current AAF, which appears to be legit, and the Freedom Football League is laughable at best, as if they currently on the same level.

AAF has either brokered their TV deals or have a revenue sharing agreement regarding advertising. That's really not solid. AAF had to turn to NFLN and TNT so fast because they count not get advertisers for CBSSN games. That was more desperation than being good. Announcing an agreement within a week of starting isn't great.

You keep repeating this information, but have not provided any sources. What is your source for this info.
02-02-2019 11:01 PM
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BruceMcF Offline
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Post: #42
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-02-2019 12:38 AM)hawghiggs Wrote:  I think that the AAF has a solid shot. They need to expand by four to eight teams in the next couple of season. I'd choose the following cities.

Let me sort those by SMA populations

1, Dallas, #4, 7.4m
5, Houston, ##5, 6.9m
2, St. Louis, #21, 2.8m
4, Las Vegas, #28, 2.2m
8, Kansas City, #30, 2.1m
6, Oklahoma City, #41, 1.4m
3, New Orleans, #46, 1.3m
7, Little Rock, #78, 738K

... and ask why not Columbus, #32, 2.1m? A glut of NFL teams 1:38, 2:10, 2:42, and 2:53 away (per google maps) and the dominance of one of the Great Lakes land grant universities permanently lock Columbus out of the NFL, but it seems like an excellent place for spring football.
02-03-2019 12:36 AM
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AuzGrams Offline
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Post: #43
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
Quite a few AAF pessimists on here from what it seems.
02-03-2019 01:46 AM
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johnbragg Offline
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Post: #44
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-02-2019 11:01 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(02-02-2019 09:13 PM)Renandpat Wrote:  
(02-02-2019 07:58 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  
(02-01-2019 06:02 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  My question is why are so many people in positions of power so enamored with spring football when history shows a field littered with failed attempts?

In the past 30-some years, the following leagues made a go of non-fall football and failed quickly:
USFL
WLAF
American wing of the CFL
Original XFL
UFL

That's not counting the leagues that never made it to the field. And yet there's the AAF starting next week, the revived XFL in 2020 and the Freedom Football League with a tentative 2020 start date.

What's the appeal? There's plenty of evidence that there isn't enough interest in spring football (or if there is, it's abstract and largely unmoved by the many attempts at it to date), and yet they keep trying, thinking they can find the magic formula to succeed where nobody else has before. Why is this such a white whale?

Really?

Compating the freedom football league to the AAF? The FFL will never even play a game and is just an idea of some former players. Sounds like a league for NFL retirees and never has beens to participate in.

The AAF has solid TV deals all around. Every game is televised nationally on a major network or live streaming. NFL minds and fingerprints all over it. Solid fringe NFL talent all over the league. 70 percent of the current players have been on an NFL roster within the past 18 months. Who knows what will happen with the XFL. Not a lot has been announced yet, other than franchise locations and that they were seeking TV deals. But, the comparison to the current AAF, which appears to be legit, and the Freedom Football League is laughable at best, as if they currently on the same level.

AAF has either brokered their TV deals or have a revenue sharing agreement regarding advertising. That's really not solid. AAF had to turn to NFLN and TNT so fast because they count not get advertisers for CBSSN games. That was more desperation than being good. Announcing an agreement within a week of starting isn't great.

You keep repeating this information, but have not provided any sources. What is your source for this info.

I think he's deducing. If sponsors were burning up the phones at CBS-SN to buy ads for AAF games, you'd assume that CBS-SN would carry 2 or 3 games a week to handle the ad volume.

Why is this such a white whale?

Because it seems like it SHOULD work. NFL is hugely popular. College football is a monster. High school football draws crowds in a lot of the country. Then in the spring, there's a football drought between the Super Bowl and the NFL draft and training camps.

The problem is getting it to work without being the top league (NFL), and without generational and local-tribal loyalties binding fans to teams (college). Obviously no one's found the right balance of paying-for-quality, limiting-costs and franchise-location to create a sustainable business. XFL shot too big (cost of NBC paying advertisers killed the league), efforts like the UFL were too small. Most successful was the Arena League, which ran for about 20 years before going broke.

The AAF has potential (being on NFL Network, NFLN may be invested enough in their existence to keep them alive). But so did UMass--a business plan that MIGHT work.
02-03-2019 11:18 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #45
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
I was entertained by a "conspiracy theory", if you will, on Twitter a few months back that proclaimed that McMahon and Ebersol are actually working together and will inevitably merge their two Spring leagues as a legitimate football counterpart to the NFL (once they fine-tune their product and determine the best course in relation to the demand/viewership). I do think it is interesting that both leagues do not have overlapping markets, and I was amazed to learn that Oliver Luck is making $20 million annually as the XFL commish. I think McMahon will pump in a ton of money to get his league up and running, and I think the extra year will actually be beneficial to that league in the long-run (seeing what works/doesn't work for the AAF, as well as putting more research into his own product).

The AAF has done a nice job getting the exposure through Turner, CBS and the NFL Network. While the XFL's TV deal has not been negotiated/released yet, I would not be surprised to see them go through NBC/Universal and Fox, as that's where WWE's two flagship shows are on (Raw and Smackdown). Even though the XFL is under a new Alpha Entertainment banner, it will be interesting to see if their content ends up on the WWE Network, or some other form of streaming.

Long-term, I would not be shocked at all if there was some form of merger between these two leagues, creating an alternative to the NFL, while also housing many of the fringe NFL players that are looking to compete for roster spots come Summer.
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2019 02:40 PM by GoldenWarrior11.)
02-03-2019 02:39 PM
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hawghiggs Offline
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Post: #46
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-03-2019 12:36 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(02-02-2019 12:38 AM)hawghiggs Wrote:  I think that the AAF has a solid shot. They need to expand by four to eight teams in the next couple of season. I'd choose the following cities.

Let me sort those by SMA populations

1, Dallas, #4, 7.4m
5, Houston, ##5, 6.9m
2, St. Louis, #21, 2.8m
4, Las Vegas, #28, 2.2m
8, Kansas City, #30, 2.1m
6, Oklahoma City, #41, 1.4m
3, New Orleans, #46, 1.3m
7, Little Rock, #78, 738K

... and ask why not Columbus, #32, 2.1m? A glut of NFL teams 1:38, 2:10, 2:42, and 2:53 away (per google maps) and the dominance of one of the Great Lakes land grant universities permanently lock Columbus out of the NFL, but it seems like an excellent place for spring football.

Weather. That's what hurts northern teams.
02-03-2019 03:08 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #47
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
Call me crazy but I really think there is a market for spring league football in the off season in football crazy regions of the country, particularly if they feature local talent.
02-03-2019 03:33 PM
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adcorbett Offline
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Post: #48
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
One thing to remember with the XFL, McMahon already has his own streaming network, production staff, and television studios, and tv partners in tow. So unlike the AAF, he probably only needs one national outlet/window for games, and can just stream the rest, should he choose. One thing they learned the first time was what really killed interest in their games was locking games into cable slots (in unrelated networks) and not being able to get the best game on national tv. I know several people who worked with the first xfl who are convinced that had they been able to be flexible and change the first game in Vegas (which was horrid) with the excellent game the had in Orlando, people would have stuck around. Instead they had the biggest one week drop in network history (at that point) and ended the year with The lowest rating ever for a network tv show
(This post was last modified: 02-03-2019 04:49 PM by adcorbett.)
02-03-2019 04:08 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #49
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-03-2019 02:39 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  I was entertained by a "conspiracy theory", if you will, on Twitter a few months back that proclaimed that McMahon and Ebersol are actually working together and will inevitably merge their two Spring leagues as a legitimate football counterpart to the NFL (once they fine-tune their product and determine the best course in relation to the demand/viewership). I do think it is interesting that both leagues do not have overlapping markets, and I was amazed to learn that Oliver Luck is making $20 million annually as the XFL commish. I think McMahon will pump in a ton of money to get his league up and running, and I think the extra year will actually be beneficial to that league in the long-run (seeing what works/doesn't work for the AAF, as well as putting more research into his own product).

The AAF has done a nice job getting the exposure through Turner, CBS and the NFL Network. While the XFL's TV deal has not been negotiated/released yet, I would not be surprised to see them go through NBC/Universal and Fox, as that's where WWE's two flagship shows are on (Raw and Smackdown). Even though the XFL is under a new Alpha Entertainment banner, it will be interesting to see if their content ends up on the WWE Network, or some other form of streaming.

Long-term, I would not be shocked at all if there was some form of merger between these two leagues, creating an alternative to the NFL, while also housing many of the fringe NFL players that are looking to compete for roster spots come Summer.

I read the same theory that was out on the internet too. While I wouldn't be surprised if there was a merger down the road I think it will be the result of one league out performing the other and the failing league's investors looking to either cash out and recoup part of their investment or exchanging it for an equity stake in the surviving venture.

There are plenty of people who love football but don't follow the other big 4 sports. These leagues will give them something to watch for an additional 3 months a year. If the size of their leagues grow that could stretch to 4 months.
02-03-2019 05:05 PM
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Post: #50
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-03-2019 03:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Call me crazy but I really think there is a market for spring league football in the off season in football crazy regions of the country, particularly if they feature local talent.

Local talent and you need NFL team affiliation for those fan bases to tune in to certain teams.
02-04-2019 12:02 AM
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Post: #51
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-02-2019 10:19 AM)TerryD Wrote:  I was a fan of the USFL in the early Eighties. I thought that David Dixon's concept of a spring league that would not directly compete with the NFL was a solid one.

Some people inside the USFL had too big of an ego and that league died.

I am hoping the AAF does well.

When they started trying to win bidding wars for big names like Reggie White and Jim Kelly the spring was never going to work without a whole lot more capital being bled off in the hopes of changing viewing habits. To get the revenue to support that spending.

They would have been better off using a single entity model and spending four or five years finding the markets that were going to work. Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Memphis, Birmingham, New Orleans were among those working out. Keep the costs down and then somewhere around year 5-7 start allowing teams to sign a big ticket player but still capping that top player.
02-04-2019 10:35 AM
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Post: #52
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-03-2019 01:46 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Quite a few AAF pessimists on here from what it seems.

They are going to be wrong about interest in several markets. The great unknown is do they have the capital to avoid ditching a market mid-season, avoid folding a team mid-season, and plug along. The rule of thumb for a restaurant is you need capital to stay open for one year with no revenue at all, that will fund you for 18 to 24 months real time to build your market share.

Does AAF have the capital to hang through the start-up blues?
02-04-2019 10:38 AM
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Post: #53
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-04-2019 12:02 AM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  
(02-03-2019 03:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Call me crazy but I really think there is a market for spring league football in the off season in football crazy regions of the country, particularly if they feature local talent.

Local talent and you need NFL team affiliation for those fan bases to tune in to certain teams.

If you go to an affiliate system, you have to think much smaller in terms of stadiums. You need 15,000 to 25,000 seat stadiums because that's roughly the ratio you see in capacity between top level leagues and affiliates.

The challenge of spring football is the markets you want to be in to attract the what the heck I'll give the local team a tune-in or maybe go out to see people in notable numbers have a dearth of facilities of appropriate size.

That means you need cheap ticket prices to try to get more of the capacity used.

Affiliation drove fans in Little Rock for baseball for decades. When the Cardinals pulled out and the Travs affiliated with west coast teams it took some time to change the reason to come see a game in the mind of central Arkansas fans.

The problem for affiliation in spring football is based on past support levels for spring football, it is likely to skew heavily to the south. That's wonderful if you are affiliated with the Cowboys or Saints or Falcons or Dolphins, not so wonderful when you are affiliated with the Browns, Lions, Bills.

It is one thing for Memphis to be prepared to sell their QB to Bills, it is an entirely different thing to be the Bills affiliate.
02-04-2019 10:50 AM
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gulfcoastgal Offline
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?

02-04-2019 11:12 AM
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Post: #55
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-04-2019 10:50 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(02-04-2019 12:02 AM)MissouriStateBears Wrote:  
(02-03-2019 03:33 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Call me crazy but I really think there is a market for spring league football in the off season in football crazy regions of the country, particularly if they feature local talent.

Local talent and you need NFL team affiliation for those fan bases to tune in to certain teams.

If you go to an affiliate system, you have to think much smaller in terms of stadiums. You need 15,000 to 25,000 seat stadiums because that's roughly the ratio you see in capacity between top level leagues and affiliates.

The challenge of spring football is the markets you want to be in to attract the what the heck I'll give the local team a tune-in or maybe go out to see people in notable numbers have a dearth of facilities of appropriate size.

That means you need cheap ticket prices to try to get more of the capacity used.

Affiliation drove fans in Little Rock for baseball for decades. When the Cardinals pulled out and the Travs affiliated with west coast teams it took some time to change the reason to come see a game in the mind of central Arkansas fans.

The problem for affiliation in spring football is based on past support levels for spring football, it is likely to skew heavily to the south. That's wonderful if you are affiliated with the Cowboys or Saints or Falcons or Dolphins, not so wonderful when you are affiliated with the Browns, Lions, Bills.

It is one thing for Memphis to be prepared to sell their QB to Bills, it is an entirely different thing to be the Bills affiliate.

My personal belief is NFL affiliation for reason to tune in for tv purposes. Gives the games a little more juice.

I think 15k to 25k is the goal for attendance already.
02-04-2019 12:09 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #56
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
Ive always thought the way to make this work was 2 fold. One---you play in the Spring and limit your costs. Two---and this is the key---you hold a draft and you give each team a geographic territory surrounding the team where 70% of their players must have played college within that area. So, this way, you create a built-in audience of hard core college fans who are interested in watching players from area schools who were stars in college---but didnt fit the NFL. That should be a great help for attendance. I think a spring football league based on that general concept could be successful as long as costs are kept under control.
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2019 12:19 PM by Attackcoog.)
02-04-2019 12:14 PM
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Exclamation RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-03-2019 12:36 AM)BruceMcF Wrote:  
(02-02-2019 12:38 AM)hawghiggs Wrote:  I think that the AAF has a solid shot. They need to expand by four to eight teams in the next couple of season. I'd choose the following cities.

Let me sort those by SMA populations

1, Dallas, #4, 7.4m
5, Houston, ##5, 6.9m
2, St. Louis, #21, 2.8m
4, Las Vegas, #28, 2.2m
8, Kansas City, #30, 2.1m
6, Oklahoma City, #41, 1.4m
3, New Orleans, #46, 1.3m
7, Little Rock, #78, 738K

... and ask why not Columbus, #32, 2.1m? A glut of NFL teams 1:38, 2:10, 2:42, and 2:53 away (per google maps) and the dominance of one of the Great Lakes land grant universities permanently lock Columbus out of the NFL, but it seems like an excellent place for spring football.


Comparing the locations between the two leagues:

XFL

• Dallas/Arlington
• Houston.
• Los Angeles.
• New York. ...
• Seattle. ...
• St. Louis
• Tampa. ...
• Washington, D.C.


AAF

• Atlanta
• Birmingham
• Memphis
• Orlando
• Tempe
• Salt Lake
• San Antonio
• San Diego



If the XFL could come back, maybe an AAF/XFL Championship game could help both leagues. 05-stirthepot 04-cheers
02-04-2019 01:42 PM
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Post: #58
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-04-2019 12:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Ive always thought the way to make this work was 2 fold. One---you play in the Spring and limit your costs. Two---and this is the key---you hold a draft and you give each team a geographic territory surrounding the team where 70% of their players must have played college within that area. So, this way, you create a built-in audience of hard core college fans who are interested in watching players from area schools who were stars in college---but didnt fit the NFL. That should be a great help for attendance. I think a spring football league based on that general concept could be successful as long as costs are kept under control.

Problem with territorial draft is some places are sparse. There are four FBS schools within a 300 mile radius of Salt Lake City. Utah, Utah State, BYU and Boise State and Boise State just barely makes it. You end up having to fudge the territory for competitive balance.
02-04-2019 02:36 PM
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Post: #59
RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-04-2019 02:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(02-04-2019 12:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Ive always thought the way to make this work was 2 fold. One---you play in the Spring and limit your costs. Two---and this is the key---you hold a draft and you give each team a geographic territory surrounding the team where 70% of their players must have played college within that area. So, this way, you create a built-in audience of hard core college fans who are interested in watching players from area schools who were stars in college---but didnt fit the NFL. That should be a great help for attendance. I think a spring football league based on that general concept could be successful as long as costs are kept under control.

Problem with territorial draft is some places are sparse. There are four FBS schools within a 300 mile radius of Salt Lake City. Utah, Utah State, BYU and Boise State and Boise State just barely makes it. You end up having to fudge the territory for competitive balance.

Yeah, but who really cares? If you’re a Boise fan, are you going to drive you SLC to see an ex-Bronco play? You would have to be the ultimate hardcore fan to do something like it, especially more than once. In the end, it doesn’t really matter where the players come from.
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2019 03:26 PM by DoubleRSU.)
02-04-2019 03:25 PM
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RE: What's the tv value of the AAF and XFL?
(02-04-2019 02:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  
(02-04-2019 12:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Ive always thought the way to make this work was 2 fold. One---you play in the Spring and limit your costs. Two---and this is the key---you hold a draft and you give each team a geographic territory surrounding the team where 70% of their players must have played college within that area. So, this way, you create a built-in audience of hard core college fans who are interested in watching players from area schools who were stars in college---but didnt fit the NFL. That should be a great help for attendance. I think a spring football league based on that general concept could be successful as long as costs are kept under control.

Problem with territorial draft is some places are sparse. There are four FBS schools within a 300 mile radius of Salt Lake City. Utah, Utah State, BYU and Boise State and Boise State just barely makes it. You end up having to fudge the territory for competitive balance.

Agreed. However, populations also vary. So, for instance, in the west, where the population is more sparse, you're going to have fewer teams. Additionally, some teams can have larger territories to offset the lower population density. You can also play with the percentage of the roster that must be "within team territory" in order to make sure teams can field competitive rosters. I used 70%---but maybe 50% is more appropriate. The point is to ground the teams to their home region with the talent they select. You can adjust the specifics to make the league work.
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2019 05:04 PM by Attackcoog.)
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