(03-08-2019 09:08 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:14 AM)pesik Wrote:  likely final projections (if everyone who is "supposed" to win, wins their last game)

1) houston
2) ucf
3) uc
4) temple
5) memphis
6) wichita
7) usf
8) tulsa
9) uconn
10) smu
11) ecu
12) tulane

If this holds true, and Memphis gets to the tournament final and loses, how could they keep us out? That would be 22-13 w/ wins over Temple (x2), UCF, and Houston - all likely NCAA teams. And whether people want to admit it or not, there's some committee bias still involved. They set up intriguing matchups when possible and I think Penny being the Memphis coach adds a little "star power" that might give us the nod over some teams if its a razor thin margin.

No.

(03-07-2019 09:31 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(03-07-2019 09:27 PM)vick mike Wrote:  Can Temple get the 3 spot?

Yes, they have to beat UCF at home.

Yep, they would win the tiebreaker with UCF by virtue of their WSU win.

(03-08-2019 10:53 AM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:08 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:14 AM)pesik Wrote:  likely final projections (if everyone who is "supposed" to win, wins their last game)

1) houston
2) ucf
3) uc
4) temple
5) memphis
6) wichita
7) usf
8) tulsa
9) uconn
10) smu
11) ecu
12) tulane

If this holds true, and Memphis gets to the tournament final and loses, how could they keep us out? That would be 22-13 w/ wins over Temple (x2), UCF, and Houston - all likely NCAA teams. And whether people want to admit it or not, there's some committee bias still involved. They set up intriguing matchups when possible and I think Penny being the Memphis coach adds a little "star power" that might give us the nod over some teams if its a razor thin margin.

No.

I'm sure you would hope that, but I think AACT wins over Tulane, UCF/Temple and Houston might do it. It would certainly be close at that point, and not a slam dunk either way. Assuming of course, we beat Tulsa tomorrow.

(03-08-2019 10:53 AM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:08 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:14 AM)pesik Wrote:  likely final projections (if everyone who is "supposed" to win, wins their last game)

1) houston
2) ucf
3) uc
4) temple
5) memphis
6) wichita
7) usf
8) tulsa
9) uconn
10) smu
11) ecu
12) tulane

If this holds true, and Memphis gets to the tournament final and loses, how could they keep us out? That would be 22-13 w/ wins over Temple (x2), UCF, and Houston - all likely NCAA teams. And whether people want to admit it or not, there's some committee bias still involved. They set up intriguing matchups when possible and I think Penny being the Memphis coach adds a little "star power" that might give us the nod over some teams if its a razor thin margin.

No.

Memphis is 9-12 against the top three quads. They have to win it in my view to get a bid.

(03-08-2019 01:55 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 10:53 AM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:08 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:14 AM)pesik Wrote:  likely final projections (if everyone who is "supposed" to win, wins their last game)

1) houston
2) ucf
3) uc
4) temple
5) memphis
6) wichita
7) usf
8) tulsa
9) uconn
10) smu
11) ecu
12) tulane

If this holds true, and Memphis gets to the tournament final and loses, how could they keep us out? That would be 22-13 w/ wins over Temple (x2), UCF, and Houston - all likely NCAA teams. And whether people want to admit it or not, there's some committee bias still involved. They set up intriguing matchups when possible and I think Penny being the Memphis coach adds a little "star power" that might give us the nod over some teams if its a razor thin margin.

No.

Memphis is 9-12 against the top three quads. They have to win it in my view to get a bid.

I would agree, if the bubble weren't so weak. But I think it's possible with that scenario. Maybe not likely, but certainly possible, with the win over Houston.

(03-08-2019 01:57 PM)TripleA Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:55 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 10:53 AM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:08 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:14 AM)pesik Wrote:  likely final projections (if everyone who is "supposed" to win, wins their last game)

1) houston
2) ucf
3) uc
4) temple
5) memphis
6) wichita
7) usf
8) tulsa
9) uconn
10) smu
11) ecu
12) tulane

If this holds true, and Memphis gets to the tournament final and loses, how could they keep us out? That would be 22-13 w/ wins over Temple (x2), UCF, and Houston - all likely NCAA teams. And whether people want to admit it or not, there's some committee bias still involved. They set up intriguing matchups when possible and I think Penny being the Memphis coach adds a little "star power" that might give us the nod over some teams if its a razor thin margin.

No.

Memphis is 9-12 against the top three quads. They have to win it in my view to get a bid.

I would agree, if the bubble weren't so weak. But I think it's possible with that scenario. Maybe not likely, but certainly possible, with the win over Houston.

Actually they would be better off getting UCF with the higher NET for two victories, beat Houston, and lose a close one to Cincy.

Then if the Big East finishes its collapse and goes two bids. Arizona St loses last game and opening tournament game while Washington wins the PAC tourney. VCU wins the A10, St Mary's bows out early, Clemson quits fighting and takes their beatings, USF makes it into the top 75, Yale wins out, Tech wins big 12, South Dakota St wins its tourney, and Wofford wins their tourney to prevent a steal. Memphis could have a play in at large fall in their lap with an easy trip to Dayton, playing great and probably facing one of those teams who were falling and held on just barely.

(03-08-2019 09:08 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:14 AM)pesik Wrote:  likely final projections (if everyone who is "supposed" to win, wins their last game)

1) houston
2) ucf
3) uc
4) temple
5) memphis
6) wichita
7) usf
8) tulsa
9) uconn
10) smu
11) ecu
12) tulane

If this holds true, and Memphis gets to the tournament final and loses, how could they keep us out? That would be 22-13 w/ wins over Temple (x2), UCF, and Houston - all likely NCAA teams. And whether people want to admit it or not, there's some committee bias still involved. They set up intriguing matchups when possible and I think Penny being the Memphis coach adds a little "star power" that might give us the nod over some teams if its a razor thin margin.

If Memphis beats Temple in that 4 vs. 5 game, I'm not sure that Temple is a "likely" tournament team, depending on what happens vs. UCF this weekend.

USFFan

(03-08-2019 02:05 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:08 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:14 AM)pesik Wrote:  likely final projections (if everyone who is "supposed" to win, wins their last game)

1) houston
2) ucf
3) uc
4) temple
5) memphis
6) wichita
7) usf
8) tulsa
9) uconn
10) smu
11) ecu
12) tulane

If this holds true, and Memphis gets to the tournament final and loses, how could they keep us out? That would be 22-13 w/ wins over Temple (x2), UCF, and Houston - all likely NCAA teams. And whether people want to admit it or not, there's some committee bias still involved. They set up intriguing matchups when possible and I think Penny being the Memphis coach adds a little "star power" that might give us the nod over some teams if its a razor thin margin.

If Memphis beats Temple in that 4 vs. 5 game, I'm not sure that Temple is a "likely" tournament team, depending on what happens vs. UCF this weekend.

USFFan

Both games are tier 1. Its really irrelevant which one they win or lose. One is at home and one is neutral but their is a 20 point gap between them that will effect the rankings acting as an equalizer.

The net should be revealing today. Indiana and temple both won on the road against virtually identical opponents, Indiana by like 18 and temple by 7. They are ranked one spot apart. The margin of victory is capped at ten so the difference in movement will mostly be in the efficiency rating.

(03-08-2019 02:09 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 02:05 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:08 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:14 AM)pesik Wrote:  likely final projections (if everyone who is "supposed" to win, wins their last game)

1) houston
2) ucf
3) uc
4) temple
5) memphis
6) wichita
7) usf
8) tulsa
9) uconn
10) smu
11) ecu
12) tulane

If this holds true, and Memphis gets to the tournament final and loses, how could they keep us out? That would be 22-13 w/ wins over Temple (x2), UCF, and Houston - all likely NCAA teams. And whether people want to admit it or not, there's some committee bias still involved. They set up intriguing matchups when possible and I think Penny being the Memphis coach adds a little "star power" that might give us the nod over some teams if its a razor thin margin.

If Memphis beats Temple in that 4 vs. 5 game, I'm not sure that Temple is a "likely" tournament team, depending on what happens vs. UCF this weekend.

USFFan

Both games are tier 1. Its really irrelevant which one they win or lose. One is at home and one is neutral but their is a 20 point gap between them that will effect the rankings acting as an equalizer.

The net should be revealing today. Indiana and temple both won on the road against virtually identical opponents, Indiana by like 18 and temple by 7. They are ranked one spot apart. The margin of victory is capped at ten so the difference in movement will mostly be in the efficiency rating.

Well Indiana jumped 6 spots and Temple moved up 1 in today's NET rankings.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball...t-rankings

(03-08-2019 03:42 PM)Wooglin157 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 02:09 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 02:05 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:08 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:14 AM)pesik Wrote:  likely final projections (if everyone who is "supposed" to win, wins their last game)

1) houston
2) ucf
3) uc
4) temple
5) memphis
6) wichita
7) usf
8) tulsa
9) uconn
10) smu
11) ecu
12) tulane

If this holds true, and Memphis gets to the tournament final and loses, how could they keep us out? That would be 22-13 w/ wins over Temple (x2), UCF, and Houston - all likely NCAA teams. And whether people want to admit it or not, there's some committee bias still involved. They set up intriguing matchups when possible and I think Penny being the Memphis coach adds a little "star power" that might give us the nod over some teams if its a razor thin margin.

If Memphis beats Temple in that 4 vs. 5 game, I'm not sure that Temple is a "likely" tournament team, depending on what happens vs. UCF this weekend.

USFFan

Both games are tier 1. Its really irrelevant which one they win or lose. One is at home and one is neutral but their is a 20 point gap between them that will effect the rankings acting as an equalizer.

The net should be revealing today. Indiana and temple both won on the road against virtually identical opponents, Indiana by like 18 and temple by 7. They are ranked one spot apart. The margin of victory is capped at ten so the difference in movement will mostly be in the efficiency rating.

Well Indiana jumped 6 spots and Temple moved up 1 in today's NET rankings.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball...t-rankings

I'd give Indiana a bid before those dirty ass Owls.

Not sure if we would get in, but win the rest of the games and lose the ccg in a close one, and we are on the good side of the bubble. It still may not be enough to get in, especially if enough conference screw the pooch and allow a handful of bid stealers in. But it would probably be close.

aac official website lists houston as the one seed, and all others who are locks....

looks like its official houston is the #1 seed

(03-08-2019 03:48 PM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 03:42 PM)Wooglin157 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 02:09 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 02:05 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:08 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  If this holds true, and Memphis gets to the tournament final and loses, how could they keep us out? That would be 22-13 w/ wins over Temple (x2), UCF, and Houston - all likely NCAA teams. And whether people want to admit it or not, there's some committee bias still involved. They set up intriguing matchups when possible and I think Penny being the Memphis coach adds a little "star power" that might give us the nod over some teams if its a razor thin margin.

If Memphis beats Temple in that 4 vs. 5 game, I'm not sure that Temple is a "likely" tournament team, depending on what happens vs. UCF this weekend.

USFFan

Both games are tier 1. Its really irrelevant which one they win or lose. One is at home and one is neutral but their is a 20 point gap between them that will effect the rankings acting as an equalizer.

The net should be revealing today. Indiana and temple both won on the road against virtually identical opponents, Indiana by like 18 and temple by 7. They are ranked one spot apart. The margin of victory is capped at ten so the difference in movement will mostly be in the efficiency rating.

Well Indiana jumped 6 spots and Temple moved up 1 in today's NET rankings.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball...t-rankings

I'd give Indiana a bid before those dirty ass Owls.

What? The UConn player clearly threw his face at the Temple players hand.

IMO, Memphis has to win the AAC Tourney to earn a bid, but the Tiger’s NET (#49) is in the Bubble neighborhood.

(03-08-2019 04:19 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  IMO, Memphis has to win the AAC Tourney to earn a bid, but the Tiger’s NET (#49) is in the Bubble neighborhood.

Memphis has such a weird resume.

Good:
NET 49
SOS 28
Average NET Loss: 45

Average:
KP: 68
Sag: 62

Bad
9-12 in Q1-3 games. (3-11 in Q1/Q2)
Average NET win: 187

So overall good schedule. No really bad losses, very few really good wins.

Obviously a few wins in the AAC tourney would help.

(03-08-2019 03:42 PM)Wooglin157 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 02:09 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 02:05 PM)usffan Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 09:08 AM)MemTigers1998 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 01:14 AM)pesik Wrote:  likely final projections (if everyone who is "supposed" to win, wins their last game)

1) houston
2) ucf
3) uc
4) temple
5) memphis
6) wichita
7) usf
8) tulsa
9) uconn
10) smu
11) ecu
12) tulane

If this holds true, and Memphis gets to the tournament final and loses, how could they keep us out? That would be 22-13 w/ wins over Temple (x2), UCF, and Houston - all likely NCAA teams. And whether people want to admit it or not, there's some committee bias still involved. They set up intriguing matchups when possible and I think Penny being the Memphis coach adds a little "star power" that might give us the nod over some teams if its a razor thin margin.

If Memphis beats Temple in that 4 vs. 5 game, I'm not sure that Temple is a "likely" tournament team, depending on what happens vs. UCF this weekend.

USFFan

Both games are tier 1. Its really irrelevant which one they win or lose. One is at home and one is neutral but their is a 20 point gap between them that will effect the rankings acting as an equalizer.

The net should be revealing today. Indiana and temple both won on the road against virtually identical opponents, Indiana by like 18 and temple by 7. They are ranked one spot apart. The margin of victory is capped at ten so the difference in movement will mostly be in the efficiency rating.

Well Indiana jumped 6 spots and Temple moved up 1 in today's NET rankings.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball...t-rankings

Yeah and at first I was like wow efficiency is still really big, but then a couple things were in effect.

All the teams involved from 49-57 are connected and most of them Big Ten teams. Indiana kind of fed it's own jump which is pretty clear in the fact that TCU is the one team with no movement and no direct connection team in that group. Temple really jumped three but lost two of those spots when Memphis pushed one back, Indiana forced one back and Ohio State fell from all the big ten movement. The numbers must be pretty close in there for that group. My guess is the extra efficiency added a couple ranking spots to the movement. So Temple should have moved three and Indiana five or so, but Temple lost a couple spots in movement and Indiana picked up a couple. Leading to the five total difference

(03-08-2019 04:19 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  IMO, Memphis has to win the AAC Tourney to earn a bid, but the Tiger’s NET (#49) is in the Bubble neighborhood.

beat the three T's...Tulsa, Tulane, and Temple...and things could get interesting for Memphis.

(03-08-2019 05:40 PM)UofMemphis Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 04:19 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  IMO, Memphis has to win the AAC Tourney to earn a bid, but the Tiger’s NET (#49) is in the Bubble neighborhood.

beat the three T's...Tulsa, Tulane, and Temple...and things could get interesting for Memphis.

#FakeNews

You'll need a T, T, T, H sweep to make things interesting.

(03-08-2019 04:48 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 04:19 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  IMO, Memphis has to win the AAC Tourney to earn a bid, but the Tiger’s NET (#49) is in the Bubble neighborhood.

Memphis has such a weird resume.

Good:
NET 49
SOS 28
Average NET Loss: 45

Average:
KP: 68
Sag: 62

Bad
9-12 in Q1-3 games. (3-11 in Q1/Q2)
Average NET win: 187

So overall good schedule. No really bad losses, very few really good wins.

Obviously a few wins in the AAC tourney would help.

If we make it to the championship game and beat Tulsa to end the season, it would put us in the 30s NET with at least one more tier 1 win. I think that would be enough, but not sure

(03-08-2019 06:50 PM)tigerjamesc Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 04:48 PM)Stickboy46 Wrote:  

(03-08-2019 04:19 PM)Tiger1983 Wrote:  IMO, Memphis has to win the AAC Tourney to earn a bid, but the Tiger’s NET (#49) is in the Bubble neighborhood.

Memphis has such a weird resume.

Good:
NET 49
SOS 28
Average NET Loss: 45

Average:
KP: 68
Sag: 62

Bad
9-12 in Q1-3 games. (3-11 in Q1/Q2)
Average NET win: 187

So overall good schedule. No really bad losses, very few really good wins.

Obviously a few wins in the AAC tourney would help.

If we make it to the championship game and beat Tulsa to end the season, it would put us in the 30s NET with at least one more tier 1 win. I think that would be enough, but not sure

In that scenario Memphis might get in (depending on the size of the bubble) but probably only at the expense of Temple. Chances of us getting 5 bids is pretty much 0%.