(02-03-2019 10:54 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think NMSU was wise to stay in FBS because I think they are one major realignment move from getting back into a G5 league and they just need to hold out a little longer.

A SBC/C-USA reshuffle could land them in the club or if the MWC sees a defection an opportunity will arise. (The AAC reviving the coast-to-coast best-of-the rest concept could make that happen.)

Right now they have other independents like UMass, Liberty, and BYU along with rivalry games with UNM and UTEP that keep the football calendar filled and the WAC is no longer in eminent danger of disbanding.

There will be no reshuffle between C-USA and the Sun Belt. Too many programs are content to spend more money on travel in order to avoid playing old conference foes.

NMSU’s best shot at a conference is for someone else in the Mountain West to punch a power conference ticket. If Colorado State bolts, New Mexico State slides right into the vacant spot in the Mountain Division. If a Western Division school leaves, Boise State or Utah State (depending on who is left) will want to move to the Western Division. It doesn’t do much in terms of TV value, but there aren’t going to be great options unless if a school like Sacramento State or Portland State starts going deep into the NCAA Tournament on a regular basis, and has the resources to move to FBS.

(02-03-2019 11:00 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(02-03-2019 10:54 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think NMSU was wise to stay in FBS because I think they are one major realignment move from getting back into a G5 league and they just need to hold out a little longer.

A SBC/C-USA reshuffle could land them in the club or if the MWC sees a defection an opportunity will arise. (The AAC reviving the coast-to-coast best-of-the rest concept could make that happen.)

Right now they have other independents like UMass, Liberty, and BYU along with rivalry games with UNM and UTEP that keep the football calendar filled and the WAC is no longer in eminent danger of disbanding.

There will be no reshuffle between C-USA and the Sun Belt. Too many programs are content to spend more money on travel in order to avoid playing old conference foes.

A fact that drives every rational human being bonkers. C-USA and the SBC would be much more financially viable as two bus leagues and the competitive level of each league would be about the same. It works great for the MAC.

If a program like LA Tech wants to demonstrate that the better than ULM then drive 30 mins to their campus and beat the snot out of them on the field.

(02-03-2019 11:00 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  NMSU’s best shot at a conference is for someone else in the Mountain West to punch a power conference ticket. If Colorado State bolts, New Mexico State slides right into the vacant spot in the Mountain Division. If a Western Division school leaves, Boise State or Utah State (depending on who is left) will want to move to the Western Division. It doesn’t do much in terms of TV value, but there aren’t going to be great options unless if a school like Sacramento State or Portland State starts going deep into the NCAA Tournament on a regular basis, and has the resources to move to FBS.

Colorado State is going nowhere, they are generally towards the bottom of the MW in football and basketball. They would be the SJSU of any P5 league. The two most likely scenarios are that a SJSU throws in the towel and either drops to FCS, or kills sports. Another possibility is that Hawaii drops football, this was rumored a couple years ago , but they seem to be getting things in order.


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(02-03-2019 11:00 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  NMSU’s best shot at a conference is for someone else in the Mountain West to punch a power conference ticket. If Colorado State bolts, New Mexico State slides right into the vacant spot in the Mountain Division. If a Western Division school leaves, Boise State or Utah State (depending on who is left) will want to move to the Western Division. It doesn’t do much in terms of TV value, but there aren’t going to be great options unless if a school like Sacramento State or Portland State starts going deep into the NCAA Tournament on a regular basis, and has the resources to move to FBS.

I think a move to the MWC is an outside possibility for NMSU. It would be kind of like the decision to have two Nevada schools (UNR, UNLV). Obviously it would take some surprise movement.

CUSA is probably the best bet.

1) NMSU along with LaTech were serious CUSA candidates going back to the days of CUSA 2.0. LaTech got in CUSA 3.0.

2) CUSA has explored expanding to 16. Expanding with NMSU and Louisiana would allow UAB to move to the east. NMSU would make CUSA basketball more competitive.

3) CUSA splits into a regional Texas based G5 league they'll be looking to nearby states to round out membership that means primarily Louisiana and then New Mexico would have to be in the mix.

4) NMSU plays in a 12,500 seat basketball arena and a 33,000 seat FB stadium both are high end capacities for a G5. That speaks CUSAs language right there IMO.

Montana and Montana State would want to be like minded schools in the Mountain West.
Montana is an R2
Montana State moved to an R1 school. They both fit the MWC profile except for San Jose State and Fresno State.

UTEP would take a Mountain side spot instead of New Mexico State.

UC-Davis and Portland State are both R1 and R2 which they do fit MWC.

MWC could grab to be the first 24 team conference. 4 pods of 6. This could get Hawaii in for all sports with 5 California schools.
Portland State and Eastern Washington would join Boise State, UNR, Utah State and bring BYU back for all sports.
Mountain will get Montana and Montana State.
East would get UTEP, UTSA, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, NDSU and South Dakota State.

This would boast the football and basketball. AAC and MWC do have a much better path of getting into the playoffs than C-USA, MAC and SBC. The schools in the other 3 conferences need to build onto their strength to try and get into those 2 conferences. UMass., Southern Miss. and ODU have been mentioned in joining the AAC. With the plight of UConn.? AAC might have to expand with UMass. and maybe a Northern Illinois to help UConn out. Illinois State could be picked to join the MAC to replace Northern Illinois.

Don't really think any team should leave FBS. However the Sun Belt and C-USA need shaken up or a partnership for travel to switch members.

Southwestern Conference (10 Teams)
UTEP
UTSA
Texas State
Rice
North Texas
Arkansas State
Louisiana Tech
UL-Monroe
Louisiana
New Mexico State
UT-Arlington (basketball/other sports)
Little Rock (basketball/other sports)

Football Championship Game played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Alamodome in San Antonio, or Superdome in New Orleans.

Conference USA (16 teams)
Sun Belt Division - 8 teams
Southern Miss.
South Alabama
UAB
Troy
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
FAU
FIU
Appalachian Division - 8 teams
Middle Tennessee State
Western Kentucky
Coastal Carolina
Charlotte
Appalachian State
Marshall
Liberty
Old Dominion

Conference USA stays at 8 games with a 8 team divisional setup, the highest seed is rewarded with the championship game instead of a neutral site.

(02-04-2019 01:59 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Montana and Montana State would want to be like minded schools in the Mountain West.
Montana is an R2
Montana State moved to an R1 school. They both fit the MWC profile except for San Jose State and Fresno State.

UTEP would take a Mountain side spot instead of New Mexico State.

UC-Davis and Portland State are both R1 and R2 which they do fit MWC.

MWC could grab to be the first 24 team conference. 4 pods of 6. This could get Hawaii in for all sports with 5 California schools.
Portland State and Eastern Washington would join Boise State, UNR, Utah State and bring BYU back for all sports.
Mountain will get Montana and Montana State.
East would get UTEP, UTSA, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, NDSU and South Dakota State.

This would boast the football and basketball. AAC and MWC do have a much better path of getting into the playoffs than C-USA, MAC and SBC. The schools in the other 3 conferences need to build onto their strength to try and get into those 2 conferences. UMass., Southern Miss. and ODU have been mentioned in joining the AAC. With the plight of UConn.? AAC might have to expand with UMass. and maybe a Northern Illinois to help UConn out. Illinois State could be picked to join the MAC to replace Northern Illinois.

The only way the MWC or AAC is going to be compelled to go larger is if there is a deal on the table to expand the P5 to a P8 given at least 16 teams per conference.

MWC: UTEP, Rice, UNT, UTSA
AAC: USM, UAB, Georgia St, ODU
CUSA: SBC- AState, Louisiana, USA, GaSouthern, App St.
CUSA: MAC- NIU, Western Mich, Toledo, Miami, Ohio

That would leave 5 SBC an 7 MAC programs left outside of the structure to decide their own future. I could see a few deciding to move down if permanently cut off from the TV money.

Others would try and forge on as low level FBS independents to join UMass, NMSU, Liberty in scheduling.

(02-04-2019 02:09 AM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(02-04-2019 01:59 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  Montana and Montana State would want to be like minded schools in the Mountain West.
Montana is an R2
Montana State moved to an R1 school. They both fit the MWC profile except for San Jose State and Fresno State.

UTEP would take a Mountain side spot instead of New Mexico State.

UC-Davis and Portland State are both R1 and R2 which they do fit MWC.

MWC could grab to be the first 24 team conference. 4 pods of 6. This could get Hawaii in for all sports with 5 California schools.
Portland State and Eastern Washington would join Boise State, UNR, Utah State and bring BYU back for all sports.
Mountain will get Montana and Montana State.
East would get UTEP, UTSA, Missouri State, Northern Iowa, NDSU and South Dakota State.

This would boast the football and basketball. AAC and MWC do have a much better path of getting into the playoffs than C-USA, MAC and SBC. The schools in the other 3 conferences need to build onto their strength to try and get into those 2 conferences. UMass., Southern Miss. and ODU have been mentioned in joining the AAC. With the plight of UConn.? AAC might have to expand with UMass. and maybe a Northern Illinois to help UConn out. Illinois State could be picked to join the MAC to replace Northern Illinois.

The only way the MWC or AAC is going to be compelled to go larger is if there is a deal on the table to expand the P5 to a P8 given at least 16 teams per conference.

MWC: UTEP, Rice, UNT, UTSA
AAC: USM, UAB, Georgia St, ODU
CUSA: SBC- AState, Louisiana, USA, GaSouthern, App St.
CUSA: MAC- NIU, Western Mich, Toledo, Miami, Ohio

That would leave 5 SBC an 7 MAC programs left outside of the structure to decide their own future. I could see a few deciding to move down if permanently cut off from the TV money.

Others would try and forge on as low level FBS independents to join UMass, NMSU, Liberty in scheduling.

I would replaced Georgia State with UMass. UConn wants them in. It would help UConn out if they never get picked for P5 status.

James Madison, Jacksonville State, Northern Iowa, Stony Brook, Eastern Kentucky, Lamar and Youngstown State all wanted to go to FBS. SHSU and SFAU also looking for FBS. Delaware State's ex- AD or president wanted FBS, but they need to fix their problems first.
MAC could survive grabbing MVFC and CAA schools.
SBC could grab OVC, A-Sun and Southern schools and Southland schools on the west. I would look at Chattanooga making a move to FBS after seeing how App. State and Georgia Southern are dominating SBC. They could do the same thing, and watch them going to bowl games.

(02-04-2019 02:06 AM)AuzGrams Wrote:  Don't really think any team should leave FBS. However the Sun Belt and C-USA need shaken up or a partnership for travel to switch members.

Southwestern Conference (10 Teams)
UTEP
UTSA
Texas State
Rice
North Texas
Arkansas State
Louisiana Tech
UL-Monroe
Louisiana
New Mexico State
UT-Arlington (basketball/other sports)
Little Rock (basketball/other sports)

Football Championship Game played at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Alamodome in San Antonio, or Superdome in New Orleans.

Conference USA (16 teams)
Sun Belt Division - 8 teams
Southern Miss.
South Alabama
UAB
Troy
Georgia State
Georgia Southern
FAU
FIU
Appalachian Division - 8 teams
Middle Tennessee State
Western Kentucky
Coastal Carolina
Charlotte
Appalachian State
Marshall
Liberty
Old Dominion

Conference USA stays at 8 games with a 8 team divisional setup, the highest seed is rewarded with the championship game instead of a neutral site.

My preferred regional conferences would have only All Sports schools, so Little Rock and Arlington would not be included. Also, UTEP and NMSU are real outliers and belong in the MWC.

Two 6-team regional conferences with divisional rivalries:

Southwest Conference

South - UTSA, TX State, Rice, Louisiana, S. Miss, Troy
North - N. Texas, LA Tech, Ark State, UAB, MTSU, W KY

CUSA

North - Marshall, App State, ODU, Charlotte, Liberty, Coastal
South - FIU, FAU, GA State, GA Southern, S. Alabama, ULM

Attendance.

Anyone know WHY attendance was a criteria for I-A/FBS?

When the Division was divided for football the criteria for I-A was based on scheduling and sport sponsorship and scholarships. In order to prevent some schools from being moved to I-AA, the NCAA had three exceptions. One based on home attendance (with two ways to do it), one based on combined home and away attendance (with two ways to do it) and one based on conference affiliation.

A few years later a number of very successful I-AA teams moved up or returned to I-A. Several I-AA conference commissioners (most notably Big Sky and Southland) began campaigning for much stronger I-A criteria to stabilize their leagues and with at least a little bit of hope that some former members would come crawling back. OVC commissioner Dan Beebe according to legend at a league meeting where Middle Tennessee State indicated their intent to move I-A tossed a dollar across the table to the MTSU president to help expand their stadium. The Southland had to take in two affiliate members in football to survive.

Attendance was seen as the hook to stop and maybe claw some members back.

There are sixteen schools in FBS who went .500 or better in FCS playoffs. Middle Tennessee State, Troy, Coastal Carolina, Akron, and North Texas are the only ones with losing records in the playoffs. MTSU in 7 appearances went 2-1 once, 0-1 twice and 1-1 four times. Troy in 7 appearances went 0-1 four times, 1-1 twice and 2-1 once. Coastal in six appearances went 0-1 three times, 1-1 twice and 2-1 one. Akron went 0-1, North Texas 0-4.

Teams moving without playing in the FCS playoff
Charlotte, Georgia State, South Alabama, UTSA, FIU, Buffalo, South Florida, UAB

(02-03-2019 06:53 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(02-03-2019 04:43 PM)seaking4steel Wrote:  

(02-03-2019 11:55 AM)bullet Wrote:  Troy, Georgia Southern and WKU are very debatable. Appalachian remains to be seen. They haven't been up long enough. ULM looked good the first couple of years, beating an SEC school.

App has been FBS for 5 years. During that span they have won at least a share of the conference championship 3 times and have made (and won) bowl games each year that they have been eligible. ULM has only had 1 winning season since moving up, and it was in 2010.

Appalachian State were an Independent at the FBS level until 1982. They finally got back up as an FBS team. This is their second stint at FBS.

Sit down crazy

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(02-03-2019 11:00 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(02-03-2019 10:54 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think NMSU was wise to stay in FBS because I think they are one major realignment move from getting back into a G5 league and they just need to hold out a little longer.

A SBC/C-USA reshuffle could land them in the club or if the MWC sees a defection an opportunity will arise. (The AAC reviving the coast-to-coast best-of-the rest concept could make that happen.)

Right now they have other independents like UMass, Liberty, and BYU along with rivalry games with UNM and UTEP that keep the football calendar filled and the WAC is no longer in eminent danger of disbanding.

There will be no reshuffle between C-USA and the Sun Belt. Too many programs are content to spend more money on travel in order to avoid playing old conference foes.

That's the line of thinking that's sinking CUSA into the toilet.

Gouging your students with ultra high athletic fees just to afford to fly your teams across the country to a school your fans have never heard of to play in a mostly empty stadium because their fans have never heard of you just to pretend to be better than the school down the street is ludicrous and a large reason why CUSA find itself at the bottom of the FBS pecking order now.

(02-04-2019 11:22 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  Attendance was seen as the hook to stop and maybe claw some members back.

It could work that way, but the reporting of attendance is so squishy schools can manipulate things.

Let's face it: If there was a firmly-enforced rule that to remain in FBS you needed to average 15,000 full-price paying fans in the stands for 2 straight years, more than a few current FBS would be clawed back to FCS. Maybe 20 or 30.

But it's impossible to really assess that, and once a school is admitted into a FBS conference, that conference will help cover for them because they don't want the instability of losing schools either.

So the attendance shell game continues.

(02-04-2019 02:21 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(02-04-2019 11:22 AM)arkstfan Wrote:  Attendance was seen as the hook to stop and maybe claw some members back.

It could work that way, but the reporting of attendance is so squishy schools can manipulate things.

Let's face it: If there was a firmly-enforced rule that to remain in FBS you needed to average 15,000 full-price paying fans in the stands for 2 straight years, more than a few current FBS would be clawed back to FCS. Maybe 20 or 30.

But it's impossible to really assess that, and once a school is admitted into a FBS conference, that conference will help cover for them because they don't want the instability of losing schools either.

So the attendance shell game continues.

It was always meant to be a shell game, except initially it was to save schools from having to move I-AA.

Attendance has always been a scam as a I-A/FBS criteria.

(02-03-2019 12:03 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-03-2019 09:53 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  [quote='SoCalBobcat78' pid='15880030' dateline='1549173184']
[quote='quo vadis' pid='15878948' dateline='1549153776']



As for whether existing to play money games is good or not in a values-sense, we just have to disagree about that.

Those FCS schools that are playing 2 money games against FBS should be questioning why they are even playing football IMO. Its not fair to the players and indicates that the program can't sustain itself. I don't remember who, but there were at least a couple of schools that did that this year, maybe more.

The bottom tier FBS playing 2 or more money games against P5 (although for independents scrambling to fill a schedule it may be for reasons other than money) have to ask the same question.

I have a hard time seeing problems with two money games in a season or money games in general. NMSU, as a member of the Sun Belt, played two money games in 2017, one at Arizona State for $800,000 and the other at Arkansas for 1.35 million. They lost at ASU 37-31 and Arkansas 42-24, but were still able to qualify for a bowl game and won that game to finish 7-6. They also had a $260,000 profit from the bowl game.

As an independent in 2018, NMSU played two money games, one at Minnesota for $800,000 and the other at BYU for $700,000. They are playing three in 2019, for a total of $3.8 million. Three is a lot, but they are an FBS independent. The money games are a by-product of FBS football. If Alabama wants to pay NMSU $1.7 million in 2019 and $1.9 million in 2021, why would that be a problem? Sure, they are likely to get blown out, but how does that differ from most SEC teams that play at Alabama?

UMass, ULM, SJSU, they all have their own reasons for their scheduling and playing at the FBS level. UMass scheduled football games with both South Carolina and Georgia, each for $1.5 million. They also used the football scheduling to add home-and-home basketball games with both. They beat Georgia in 2017 at home in basketball and they play South Carolina at home in 2019. They also somehow managed to get on the Notre Dame schedule, which is not easy. They played at Notre Dame in 2015 for $1 million. In 2018, an individual alumnus donated $5.58 million to their athletic department.

SJSU will only play one money game in each of the next three seasons, at Arkansas (2019), Penn State (2020) and Georgia (2021). The Arkansas and Penn State game pay $1.5 million each, Geogia will pay $1.8 million. Besides their CFP revenue and MWC revenue, they have received some good donations. In November they received a $2 million donation to football and in February of 2018 they received a $5 million donation to football. It is possible to win at SJSU in football. In 2012, they went 11-2 with a bowl win and ended up #21 in both the AP and Coaches poll. That team had eight payers that ended up making NFL rosters.

ULM, as I noted in another post, brought in $2.7 million from money games in 2018 and made $1.7 million from the CFP revenue. A total of $4.4 million from those two sources, which is 80% of their football budget. Maybe they should have never moved up, but they are FBS and there is no good financial reason for them to drop back down. This is the same school that beat a Nick Saban coached Alabama team in 2008 and Arkansas in 2012.

I think once these schools get hooked on the money from football revenue and donations, plus the prestige of being at the FBS level, they are not going to leave it. NMSU has a geography problem that makes playing in any conference difficult. There are five FBS schools and zero FCS schools within 400 miles of the NMSU campus. UTEP is 45 miles away and New Mexico is 220 miles away. NMSU looked at the Big Sky, but the travel was brutal. They made the wise decision to stay at FBS.

All this talk about the Sun Belt and CUSA needing to reshuffle is one sided. the Sun Belt for the last 3 years has steadily increased its revenues, profile, and exposure. along with have a pretty decent travel setup, the bar for any President to make a move to help CUSA out of THEIR circumstances has been raised to a place that i imagine several CUSA members wont like. i can see 2 current CUSA schools coming over to the Sun Belt before a complete reshuffle of the two conferences.

(02-03-2019 11:07 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  

(02-03-2019 11:00 PM)Side Show Joe Wrote:  

(02-03-2019 10:54 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  I think NMSU was wise to stay in FBS because I think they are one major realignment move from getting back into a G5 league and they just need to hold out a little longer.

A SBC/C-USA reshuffle could land them in the club or if the MWC sees a defection an opportunity will arise. (The AAC reviving the coast-to-coast best-of-the rest concept could make that happen.)

Right now they have other independents like UMass, Liberty, and BYU along with rivalry games with UNM and UTEP that keep the football calendar filled and the WAC is no longer in eminent danger of disbanding.

There will be no reshuffle between C-USA and the Sun Belt. Too many programs are content to spend more money on travel in order to avoid playing old conference foes.

A fact that drives every rational human being bonkers. C-USA and the SBC would be much more financially viable as two bus leagues and the competitive level of each league would be about the same. It works great for the MAC.

If a program like LA Tech wants to demonstrate that the better than ULM then drive 30 mins to their campus and beat the snot out of them on the field.

Our conference no one pays attention to is better than your similar conference that gets no attention.

There is declining interest among fans to do anything about the geographic messes that are Sun Belt and CUSA.

If you are Georgia Southern and Georgia State, CUSA doesn't offer you much. If you are AState, CUSA probably means more games in Texas where you don't recruit much and fewer in Alabama and Georgia where you recruit a lot (Houston is 100 miles further from AState than Atlanta) and it's 300 miles to the nearest team no matter what.

Texas State would be tickled.

The rule of close but not too close is always going to trip you up.

Close opponents are a good thing but you don't want to compete with them for media attention in the same market even if you play in non-conference.

That makes it hard to resolve UTSA/Texas State and ULM/LaTech.
It isn't easy to balance something east/west without screwing up someone's preferences, AState recruits to its east but would likely realign west. For years Southern Miss teams were heavily recruited from the east of campus and they were CUSA East until 2014 though they seem to sign a lot more from Texas now.

(02-04-2019 04:49 PM)balanced_view Wrote:  All this talk about the Sun Belt and CUSA needing to reshuffle is one sided. the Sun Belt for the last 3 years has steadily increased its revenues, profile, and exposure. along with have a pretty decent travel setup, the bar for any President to make a move to help CUSA out of THEIR circumstances has been raised to a place that i imagine several CUSA members wont like. i can see 2 current CUSA schools coming over to the Sun Belt before a complete reshuffle of the two conferences.

Which two would consider the SBC as preferable? Charlotte and ODU?

East: ODU, Charlotte, App St, Coastal, GA St, GA Southern
West: Texas St, Ark St, ULL, ULM, USA, Troy