Here are the current CUSA Men's Basketball conference standings, from the conference website, with "if it would be decided today" pods marked (1-5, 6-10, 11-14).



Recent years' conference records indicate that we'll likely need at least a total of 5 wins (5-9) to qualify for the middle pod.

Notice that as of today, no ties exist for the crucial 5th place or 10th place positions.

Note that had Rice won their last two Road Saturday games so steeped in officiating controversy, that we could be 5-2 and sitting pretty in pod #1

I agree with you that 5 wins gives a team a solid expectation of making pod 2 and thus effectively clinching a tournament berth. I put the overall number of wins to ‘guarantee’ (P>0.995) a tourney berth is 6
(Assuming the first 14 games count alongside the four pod games after pod play in order to determine seed ordering within each pod - I have not found definitive description of that process yet)

Yes whatever pod you're in will be the seed you are for the conference tournament. So 1-5 teams will remain 1-5 seeds, even if the 5 seed goes 0-4 and ends up with a worse record than one of the 6-10 teams. Same thing goes for 6-10, so if you're in the 11-14 pod, the best you can do is 11th.

The one thing I haven't heard yet is how the 11-14 teams play their games. Obviously 1-5 play each other once, two home games and two road games. Same thing for 6-10. But the 11-14 teams have only 3 opponents so you'll have to play 1 of those teams twice. It seems the most fair thing to do in my opinion would have the 11 team play the 14 team twice. But it's possible I suppose that they divide things up more by geography since these games are going to have to be scheduled on quick notice anyway.

I like this system and am disappointed we're not doing something similar for the women. In fact, it seems rather sexist and anti-Title IX that this system was just put in place for the men and not the women. Hopefully they'll fix that oversight next season.

Perhaps because it’s easier to schedule OOC for the women (not sure)- but WBB has usually been a 16 game conference schedule vs 18 for the men.

So if nothing else, it would take an extra year of lead time to expand to 18 games (or devise a similar pod plan with just 2 pod games)


But I agree... pods for the women... and quarters for the men!!!

I keep thinking with the terminology of the system that the CUSA basketball effort should be renamed Invasion of the Conference Snatchers.

Rice is 3 point underdogs to UAB today.

(01-25-2019 10:30 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  I keep thinking with the terminology of the system that the CUSA basketball effort should be renamed Invasion of the Conference Snatchers.

We're next.

UTSA beat ODU.

I see they were down by 17 with 3 minutes to go, and won the game somehow.

(01-26-2019 06:12 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I see they were down by 17 with 3 minutes to go, and won the game somehow.

I watched much of the 2nd half on ESPN+. With the big lead, ODU slacked off, UTSA caught fire, then ODU panicked down the stretch. ODU also missed a ton of late free throws.

(01-26-2019 07:27 PM)Almadenmike Wrote:  

(01-26-2019 06:12 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I see they were down by 17 with 3 minutes to go, and won the game somehow.

I watched much of the 2nd half on ESPN+. With the big lead, ODU slacked off, UTSA caught fire, then ODU panicked down the stretch. ODU also missed a ton of late free throws.

Sounds all too familiar.

Looks like we're tied with the two Florida schools at 4-5 now (and t-9 so if the season ended today, 2 of those 3 teams would be in pod 2 and 1 would be in the bottom pod).

I'm pretty sure 6 wins will get us into pod 2. So that will require a win at home next week (WKU or Marshall), and a win at one of the Florida schools. Charlotte is probably close to a lock for the bottom pod (they have 2 wins and a tough remaining schedule with UNT at home, followed by road games at MTSU, UAB & ODU). UTEP is also going to have to kick it into a higher gear to escape the bottom pod (also 2 wins currently but they have 1 extra game, and they do host the 2 Florida schools next week, and have road games at WK, LT and USM). MTSU is 3-6 with 3 tough road games (UAB, WK and Marshall), but they do host Charlotte & ODU.

Again a split of the last 2 weekends should get us into the middle pod (probably over whichever Florida team we beat). 0 or 1 wins and I suspect we're looking at 11th or 12th place prior to the last 4 games.

(02-01-2019 05:19 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Looks like we're tied with the two Florida schools at 4-5 now (and t-9 so if the season ended today, 2 of those 3 teams would be in pod 2 and 1 would be in the bottom pod).

I'm pretty sure 6 wins will get us into pod 2. So that will require a win at home next week (WKU or Marshall), and a win at one of the Florida schools. Charlotte is probably close to a lock for the bottom pod (they have 2 wins and a tough remaining schedule with UNT at home, followed by road games at MTSU, UAB & ODU). UTEP is also going to have to kick it into a higher gear to escape the bottom pod (also 2 wins currently but they have 1 extra game, and they do host the 2 Florida schools next week, and have road games at WK, LT and USM). MTSU is 3-6 with 3 tough road games (UAB, WK and Marshall), but they do host Charlotte & ODU.

Again a split of the last 2 weekends should get us into the middle pod (probably over whichever Florida team we beat). 0 or 1 wins and I suspect we're looking at 11th or 12th place prior to the last 4 games.

Agree.

Here are the conference standings (from the CUSA website):

I think that the conference standings are using overall record as the tie breaker in the current standings rather than the conference tie breaker rules. So Rice might not be in the bottom pod if the season ended today. But that does not matter because the tie breaker scenarios will be very different five games from now. As pointed out above, our head to head performance against the F_Us will likely be important.

FIU beat Louisiana Tech today and FAU lost a close one at home to USM. So for now, put FIU in pod 2, and us in pod 3. MTSU is hanging with UAB on the road - we kind of need the Blazers to pull that one out.

UTSA beat Marshall in overtime on the road 116-106! UTSA has had two different sophomores score in the mid-40 point range the last two games. If they can keep those two guys on campus the next two seasons, they could have a really, really good team. But something tells me that's going to be hard to do.

(02-02-2019 09:37 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  MTSU is hanging with UAB on the road - we kind of need the Blazers to pull that one out.

They didn't.

Middle Tennessee got a defensive rebound with 22 seconds left ... and sunk a mid-range J with 10.9 left to take a 77-76 lead. UAB countered with a FG with 4.3 left.

But a MidTenn player streaking down the court initiated contact -- beyond the 3-point line and with 1.3 ticks left -- with a Blazer, who thought too late to try to get out of his way. The MT player jacked it up anyway, and missed, and many in the UAB arena thought the ref's waving arms meant the shot didn't count and that they'd won. But actually he was saying that the foul was on the court BEFORE the shot.

The MT player sunk both FTs, and the Blazer's Hail Mary throw was off-target.

MidTenn won, 79-78.

It’s been a week since this thread was updated... but the assumptions made then still look valid.

(1) split the final two weekends and get six wins and we’re in the middle Pod.

Tough that last night got away but we are capable of winning every game on our schedule. 2-1 is certainly doable vs Marshall and at FIU & FAU.
We’re 12th at 4-7.
Conveniently for tiebreakers, we either already hold head-to-head against nearly all the 5-6 and 6-5 teams ahead of us.

If 6 wins doesn’t get us more than a tie for 10th, we’re virtually guaranteed to win the tiebreaker to get in the middle Pod.

On the other hand, I don’t see any way we get to tenth place if we only manage 5 wins. So for some teams it might be more up-in-the-air depending on other teams and tiebreakers. For us it still looks like 95% or better that win 2 and we’re in, win 1 and we’re in the poopy pod.

6 wins is probably still a magic number for making Frisco, too. Namely I think as long as we get two wins in the next 7 (including pod play) we’ll go to the tourney. But to have a chance to win the thing, I really think we need the higher seed that would come from making the middle Pod (and hopefully continuing to build confidence by doing well in that pod)

Through last night’s games
(From CUSA, tiebreakers not included)


Old Dominion 9-3 19-6
North Texas 8-3 20-4
UTSA 8-3 14-10
WKU 7-4 14-10
Southern Miss 6-5 14-9
UAB 6-5 14-10
Marshall 6-5 13-11
Louisiana Tech 5-6 15-9
FIU 5-6 14-10
Florida Atlantic 5-6 14-10
Middle Tennessee 5-6 8-16
Rice 4-7 9-15
UTEP 2-9 7-15
Charlotte 2-10 5-18
———————————
Four teams one game ahead of us. We already beat two and we play the other two next week.
Then the group of three at 6-5: we beat one and play the other tomorrow. If we beat Marshall they’re just 1 game ahead of us with us holding the tiebreaker.

Technically we’re even still alive for the top pod.

Did I mention we’re still technically alive for the top pod?

(02-08-2019 05:12 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Okay, I’ve finally crunched enough numbers, and projected the final 20 games of the round-robin schedule.
Here are my pod projections:

Pod Seed. Team. Projected W-L. (Current W-L). FEB9. FEB14. FEB16. [KenPomStrength]
PRIMO POD
ODU 11-3 (9-3) W(MTSU). Off. W(CHAR) [6.32] — head-to-head over UNT for #1
UNT 11-3 (8-3) W(WKU). W(@FAU). W(@FIU) [5.39]
UTSA 10-4 (8-3) W(FAU). L(@USM). L(@LATECH) [2.67]
WKU 9-5 (7-4) L(@UNT). W(MTSU). W(UAB) [5.02]
RICE 7-7 (4-7) W(MARS). W(@FIU). W(@FAU) [-5.52] — round robin head to head among T5: 3-1

PRETTY POD
USM 7-7 (6-5) W(LATECH). L(UTSA)? L(UTEP)!! [4.40] — round robin head-to-head among T5: 3-2 [T6]
LATECH 7-7 (5-6) L(@USM). W(UTEP). W(UTSA) [3.00] —round robin head-to-head among T5: 3-2 [T6]
UAB 7-7 (6-5) W(CHAR). L(@MARS), L(@WKU) [-0.57] round robin head-to-head among T5: 1-3 [T8]
MARS 7-7 (5-6) L(@RICE). W(UAB). L(MTSU)!! [-2.09] round robin head-to-head among T5: 1-3 [T8]
MTSU 6-8 (5-6) L(@ODU). L(@WKU). W(@MARS)!! [-9.15]

POOPY POD
FAU 5-9 (5-6) L(@UTSA). L(UNT). L(RICE) [-0.32] [T11]
FIU 5-9 (5-6) L(@UTEP). L(RICE). L(UNT) [-5.42] [T11]
UTEP 4-10 (2-9) W(FIU). L(@LATECH). W(@USM)!! [-9.03]
CHAR 2-12 (2-10) L(@UAB). Off. L(@ODU) [-12.43]

In those 20 remaining games I only picked two big upsets “!!" (8+ points), one mild upset “?" (4-5 points) and the rest are favorites or virtual toss-ups per current KenPom rating.
I figure not too much to ask for MTSU and UTEP to steal one road win each in the final weekend...

Owl@.... Hoping your projections are spot on!