Am I reading this correctly, we're currently in a 5-way tie for 8th in the league at 5-7? Charlotte and UTEP both won today so they each have 3 wins. Pod placement is based on overall record in ties, correct?

If that is the case, it does appear that we'll need a win next week to have any chance at the middle pod. And we probably need at least 6 wins to make the conference tournament as well, although that's not as clear cut quite yet.

The conference should award us the tiebreaker if we need it since the UTEP “loss” weighs heavy in our fate.

The first tiebreaker is head-to-head, or record within the tied group in case of a larger tied group.

And we’re undefeated within our 5-team tied group (2-0) so technically we currently hold the 8 seed.

As for the top pod... still in the running.
With WKU winning today there’s four teams we can’t catch.

But if USM goes 0-2, UAB and Marshall each go 1-1 or 0-2, then we have a shot at the top pod as long as we sweep on the road to make 7-7. UAB is the only team that has a tiebreaker on us, so MTSU or LATech going 2-0 to join the tie would help give us UAB insurance

Helps that we’re 4-1 against teams we could possibly tie with at 7-7.

Here it is in gory detail...


Rice 2-0 middle or better Pod guaranteed
Top pod under certain scenarios requiring USM loses both AND Marshal or UAB lose their final game. (See below for details)

Rice 1-1 ‘almost’ guarantees middle Pod. Unless LATech, MTSU, and the team we lose to all go 2-0 on the week. Al three of those teams do play teams currently in the top four, so that would require three upsets to keep us out of the middle Pod in that scenario. UNT is our travel partner and they have ‘got our back’ and surely will beat whichever team we don’t next week

Rice 0-2 probably bottom pod.

Unless... LATech, MTSU both go 0-2 AND UTEP loses its last game*, in which we could still back into the middle Pod.
————————————————
Scenarios in which Rice makes top pod:
Required for all scenarios:
Rice 2-0
USM 0-2

Scenario one:
Marshall beats UAB Thursday.
Marshall and UAB both lose Saturday
Rice is #5
(Rice sweep vs tied teams USM& Marshall)

Scenario two:
Marshall beats UAB Thursday.
Marshall loses Saturday
UAB wins Saturday
LaTech wins final two
Rice is #5
(Rice 3-1 vs tied teams USM, UAB, Marshall, LATech. All others 2+ losses).

Scenario three:
UAB beats Marshall Thursday.
Marshall wins Saturday
UAB loses Saturday
LATech wins final two
Rice is #5
(Rice 3-1 vs tied teams USM, UAB, Marshall, LATech. All others 2+ losses).

Scenario four:
UAB beats Marshall Thursday.
Marshall loses Saturday
UAB loses Saturday
LATech wins final two
MTSU wins Thursday
Rice is #5
(Rice 3-1 vs tied teams USM, UAB, MTSU, LATech. All others 2+ losses).

Note: any additional 5-7 teams winning last two in these scenarios (MTSU, LATech) will only help Rice’s tiebreaker advantage.

And although I did all the above ‘by hand’... here’s a pretty good tiebreaker/standings projector that a USM fan posted on the conference board.

That said, I’m not certain it handles tied teams still tied after round-robin records are compared correctly (it reverts them back to the original tiebreaker as many leagues do, while I don’t think CUSA ‘reverts’ in its tiebreaker hierarchy)

Excellent tool nonetheless...

(02-10-2019 01:50 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(02-10-2019 01:35 PM)BeagleUSM Wrote:  Check this out.

http://bball.notnothing.net/cusa.php?sport=mbb

Awesome find!!! Looks legit and will save us a ton of work over the next seven days!!!

In spite of that I’m still rooting for your team to get swept at home next week(!!)
If you do, and Rice wins two, and UAB loses two, and MTSU Beats Marshall too....for example...

Quote:Conference USA Standings

1. Old Dominion (11 - 3)
2. Western Kentucky (10 - 4) Defeated Texas-San Antonio and North Texas based on round-robin record.
3. Texas-San Antonio (10 - 4) Defeated North Texas and lost to Western Kentucky based on round-robin record.
4. North Texas (10 - 4) Lost to Western Kentucky and Texas-San Antonio based on round-robin record.
5. Rice (7 - 7) Defeated Louisiana Tech, Southern Mississippi, and Marshall based on round-robin record.
6. Louisiana Tech (7 - 7) With Southern Mississippi, defeated Marshall and lost to Rice based on round-robin record. Defeated Southern Mississippi based on record against #2 teams.
7. Southern Mississippi (7 - 7) With Louisiana Tech, defeated Marshall and lost to Rice based on round-robin record. Lost to Louisiana Tech based on record against #2 teams.
8. Marshall (7 - 7) Lost to Rice, Louisiana Tech, and Southern Mississippi based on round-robin record.
9. Middle Tennessee State (6 - 8) Defeated Alabama-Birmingham based on head-to-head record.
10. Alabama-Birmingham (6 - 8) Lost to Middle Tennessee State based on head-to-head record.
11. Florida Atlantic (5 - 9) Defeated Florida International based on record against #1 teams.
12. Florida International (5 - 9) Lost to Florida Atlantic based on record against #1 teams.
13. Texas-El Paso (4 - 10)
14. North Carolina-Charlotte (3 - 11)

(02-08-2019 05:15 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Did I mention we’re still technically alive for the top pod?

(02-08-2019 05:12 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Okay, I’ve finally crunched enough numbers, and projected the final 20 games of the round-robin schedule.
Here are my pod projections:

Pod Seed. Team. Projected W-L. (Current W-L). FEB9. FEB14. FEB16. [KenPomStrength]
PRIMO POD
ODU 11-3 (9-3) W(MTSU). Off. W(CHAR) [6.32] — head-to-head over UNT for #1
UNT 11-3 (8-3) W(WKU). W(@FAU). W(@FIU) [5.39]
UTSA 10-4 (8-3) W(FAU). L(@USM). L(@LATECH) [2.67]
WKU 9-5 (7-4) L(@UNT). W(MTSU). W(UAB) [5.02]
RICE 7-7 (4-7) W(MARS). W(@FIU). W(@FAU) [-5.52] — round robin head to head among T5: 3-1

PRETTY POD
USM 7-7 (6-5) W(LATECH). L(UTSA)? L(UTEP)!! [4.40] — round robin head-to-head among T5: 3-2 [T6]
LATECH 7-7 (5-6) L(@USM). W(UTEP). W(UTSA) [3.00] —round robin head-to-head among T5: 3-2 [T6]
UAB 7-7 (6-5) W(CHAR). L(@MARS), L(@WKU) [-0.57] round robin head-to-head among T5: 1-3 [T8]
MARS 7-7 (5-6) L(@RICE). W(UAB). L(MTSU)!! [-2.09] round robin head-to-head among T5: 1-3 [T8]
MTSU 6-8 (5-6) L(@ODU). L(@WKU). W(@MARS)!! [-9.15]

POOPY POD
FAU 5-9 (5-6) L(@UTSA). L(UNT). L(RICE) [-0.32] [T11]
FIU 5-9 (5-6) L(@UTEP). L(RICE). L(UNT) [-5.42] [T11]
UTEP 4-10 (2-9) W(FIU). L(@LATECH). W(@USM)!! [-9.03]
CHAR 2-12 (2-10) L(@UAB). Off. L(@ODU) [-12.43]

In those 20 remaining games I only picked two big upsets “!!" (8+ points), one mild upset “?" (4-5 points) and the rest are favorites or virtual toss-ups per current KenPom rating.
I figure not too much to ask for MTSU and UTEP to steal one road win each in the final weekend...

For correctness... I should clarify that my Friday predictions had a typo and that UTSA should have had Feb14 projected as a ‘win’ at USM to get to the 10-4 record I showed. (And more importantly to get USM to 7-7)
(I’d originally had that game as an L in my spreadsheet before I published but had to toggle a couple LATech games to get the tiebreakers more in our favor so far one of the games I ‘toggled’ came out our way (and in favor of USM last night).

Thx Almaden for the catch

No matter the scenario, we've got to do our part and win both games next week. Go Owls!

After Thursday's (2/14) results, here are those hoped for below that a) happened and b) didn't happen.

(02-10-2019 07:13 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  

(02-08-2019 05:15 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Did I mention we’re still technically alive for the top pod?

(02-08-2019 05:12 PM)owl at the moon Wrote:  Okay, I’ve finally crunched enough numbers, and projected the final 20 games of the round-robin schedule.
Here are my pod projections:

Pod Seed. Team. Projected W-L. (Current W-L). FEB9. FEB14. FEB16. [KenPomStrength]
PRIMO POD
ODU 11-3 (9-3) W(MTSU). Off. W(CHAR) [6.32] — head-to-head over UNT for #1
UNT 11-3 (8-3) W(WKU). W(@FAU). W(@FIU) [5.39]
UTSA 10-4 (8-3) W(FAU). W(@USM). L(@LATECH) [2.67]
WKU 9-5 (7-4) L(@UNT). W(MTSU). W(UAB) [5.02]
RICE 7-7 (4-7) W(MARS). W(@FIU). W(@FAU) [-5.52] — round robin head to head among T5: 3-1

PRETTY POD
USM 7-7 (6-5) W(LATECH). L(UTSA)? L(UTEP)!! [4.40] — round robin head-to-head among T5: 3-2 [T6]
LATECH 7-7 (5-6) L(@USM). W(UTEP). W(UTSA) [3.00] —round robin head-to-head among T5: 3-2 [T6]
UAB 7-7 (6-5) W(CHAR). L(@MARS), L(@WKU) [-0.57] round robin head-to-head among T5: 1-3 [T8]
MARS 7-7 (5-6) L(@RICE). W(UAB). L(MTSU)!! [-2.09] round robin head-to-head among T5: 1-3 [T8]
MTSU 6-8 (5-6) L(@ODU). L(@WKU). W(@MARS)!! [-9.15]

POOPY POD
FAU 5-9 (5-6) L(@UTSA). L(UNT). L(RICE) [-0.32] [T11]
FIU 5-9 (5-6) L(@UTEP). L(RICE). L(UNT) [-5.42] [T11]
UTEP 4-10 (2-9) W(FIU). L(@LATECH). W(@USM)!! [-9.03]
CHAR 2-12 (2-10) L(@UAB). Off. L(@ODU) [-12.43]

In those 20 remaining games I only picked two big upsets “!!" (8+ points), one mild upset “?" (4-5 points) and the rest are favorites or virtual toss-ups per current KenPom rating.
I figure not too much to ask for MTSU and UTEP to steal one road win each in the final weekend...

For correctness... I should clarify that my Friday predictions had a typo and that UTSA should have had Feb14 projected as a ‘win’ at USM to get to the 10-4 record I showed. (And more importantly to get USM to 7-7)
(I’d originally had that game as an L in my spreadsheet before I published but had to toggle a couple LATech games to get the tiebreakers more in our favor so far one of the games I ‘toggled’ came out our way (and in favor of USM last night).

Thx Almaden for the catch

With tonight's loss @FIU, we're currently tied with Middle Tennessee for 11th place (5-8).

It appears to me that Rice has to beat FAU on Saturday to have a chance to avoid the Poopy Pod. If we lose, the best we can do is remain tied with Middle Tennessee for 11th at the top of the Poopy Pile.

If UTSA, North Texas, Rice and Middle Tennessee all win on Saturday, there will be a 6-way tie -- at 6-8 -- for spots 7-12. (Those ranked 6-10 will comprise the Pretty Pod; 11-14, the Poopy Pod.) Of the 5 we'd be tied with, we would have defeated all but FIU.

If we, LaTech, FIU & Marshall all win on Saturday, we'll be tied with FAU, which we'd have beaten, for 10th place ... and we'd claim the last spot in the Pretty Pod.

For clarity, here are now the pertinent standings....

T7 - La Tech, FIU, FAU, Marshall -- 6-7
T11 - Rice, MTSU -- 5-8

The 6-7 teams all host games tomorrow (LT hosts UTSA, Marshall hosts MTSU, UNT is at FIU and we're at FAU).

Well obviously we need to play better tomorrow than we did last night to beat FAU. That's the first and most important step.

I think UNT will rebound and beat FIU. And I also think Marshall rebounds to beat MTSU. LT & UTSA will be a toss-up perhaps?

We still have decent tie-breaker advantages so a solid chance at making that middle pod. But obviously the only game that matters is ours. They will announce the schedule for the final four games tomorrow night. 1 team in both Pods 1 and 2 will not play Feb. 23rd, but the other 12 conference teams will play that day.

I was looking through this and can’t find any scenario where a Rice win wouldn’t clinch a pretty pod (6-10) berth.

A win against FAU moves us into no worse than a Tie for 10th with FAU.

Which as you mentioned before we would advance from via head-to-head if it were only a 2-way tie.

We hold wins against all three other of the teams we could end up tying with (Except FIU).

“Worst case” then would be that FIU also lost to fall to 6-8. But even in that 3-way tie for 9th it would resolve with
9. FIU 2-1
10. Rice 1-1
11. FAU 1-2

Any additional teams that climbed into the tie (MTSU) or fell into the tie (LATech or Marshall) would only improve our record within the tied group.

So, as you hinted at, the only thing that matters is that Rice win at FAU.

Because that will clinch a pod 2 berth. And not doing so will clinch a pod 3 berth.

That “loss” to UTEP really puts us on thin ice.

Pod 1 - ODU, USM, WKU, UTSA, UAB
Pod 2 - UNT, LT, MAR, FIU & FAU
Pod 3 - Rice, MTSU, UTEP & CHA

They will announce the schedule later tonight. I think we're the 11th seed for now? Which I believe means we'll play the 14 seed twice (which should be Charlotte?). But don't hold me to that.