JRsec
Super Moderator
Posts: 38,251
Joined: Mar 2012
Reputation: 7956
I Root For: SEC
Location:
|
RE: Is New FOX tightening their belt?
(01-25-2019 11:36 PM)bigblueblindness Wrote: With the BIG going Maryland and Rutgers when they could have certainly had at least Missouri and Kansas around when they took Nebraska tells me that the BIG is either a) not interested in bridging westward or b) was shortsighted and will may make a drastic course correction. I just don't see how option b is plausible with how calculating Delany seems to be.
What makes complete sense to me is the PAC coming to grips with their situation and being the first to make the move to a true super conference of 20 schools. By adding the 8 Big 12 schools minus Baylor and West Virginia, they improve their average in every measurable that matters. Sure, the California schools will not be crazy about the slight hit to academic averages, but who would move the academic needle for them without also taking a hit in other athletic areas? What the PAC doesn't seem to realize is that they have little brother baggage, too. Why not take tit for tat in order to strengthen the whole? A little creativity, such as 80% of total conference revenue shared evenly with the last 20% divvied out by individual school contribution/worth to the bottom line would still be a head of a deal for Wazzu, Oregon State, Kansas State, etc. and give a little gravy to Texas, Oklahoma, USC, etc.
This league would force a paradigm shift and may actually allow the PAC Network to have a chance with the Longhorn Network/ESPN situation as the obvious issue to resolve. Outside of the potential shift from the Alston case, I just don't see how anyone is shaking all of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas loose from little brothers without them having a soft landing space. I guess we'll see soon enough.
I think you are wrong about (b). Delany did miscalculate. What he never foresaw was any interest by the SEC in Missouri. He had to strike for Maryland, hoped for either Virginia or North Carolina to travel with them. Then he figured Kansas and Missouri would never get a look from the SEC so he needed to finish up Eastern expansion first with a solid market so when UVa wasn't interested and North Carolina called Birmingham for insurance, he took Rutgers. It was an easy grab with a huge market that put him in NYC in a higher %.
The SEC wasn't thinking Missouri, but ESPN had been since 2009. As Gomer Pyle would say, "Sur-prise, sur-prise, sur-prise!"
Now that said I agree 100% on what you have suggested for the PAC and the proof of that goes back 3 years or so with my 3x20 models that had exactly those schools moving to the PAC for a conference of 20. Furthermore the B12 can be dissolved with 8 votes. So that move can happen anytime.
If you are ESPN and FOX and you want to renew existing contracts, renegotiate their values, and extend them before the FAANGs get involved then this kind of move of Big 12 product makes a ton of sense.
But guess what? The ACC can be dissolved with 12 votes. If the Big 10 and SEC both moved to 20 each that would require 12 schools.
Notre Dame, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Boston College put you at 6 and solidify your hold over New England and the beltway.
ss
For the SEC it's Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
Why that grouping? At 20 schools it is highly likely that all rivalries are contained, or need to be as no more than 1 OOC game is likely to be on the schedule.
B1G:
North: Boston College, Notre Dame, Purdue, Rutgers, Syracuse
East: Maryland, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Virginia, Virginia Tech
South: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State,
West: Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin
SEC:
East: Auburn, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Florida, Florida State
South: Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
North: Duke, Clemson, North Carolina, N.C. State, South Carolina
West: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana State, Missouri, Texas A&M
PAC:
North: Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, Washington, Washington State
West: Arizona, Arizona State, California, Cal Los Angeles, Southern Cal
East: Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
South: Colorado, Texas, Texas Tech, T.C.U., Utah
Now why all 3 North Carolina schools? They'll want to stay together and would refuse any kind of move that didn't keep them so. Georgia Tech to preserve and restore old rivalries and they are AAU. Clemson and F.S.U. to preserve rivalries.
Virginia is now virtually a blue state so those two to the Big 10 make sense especially with N.D. and the former Big East schools.
Baylor, West Virginia, Louisville, Wake Forest and Miami can look to elevate the best of the G5 and find their way into a new P Conference.
(This post was last modified: 01-26-2019 12:44 AM by JRsec.)
|
|