UConn is terrible at football, and they know it. If they drop to FCS, it could be the domino that starts another wave.

Wonder how many other schools are realistically looking at the finances of FBS football and athletics as a whole.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal...ll-aac-fcs

(01-22-2019 03:05 PM)Usajags Wrote:  UConn is terrible at football, and they know it. If they drop to FCS, it could be the domino that starts another wave.

Wonder how many other schools are realistically looking at the finances of FBS football and athletics as a whole.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footbal...ll-aac-fcs

This has me wondering if the AAC is going to struggle in the long term? Their schools are spending at a much higher rate than the rest of the G5 (except possibly a few MWC teams), but their payouts even including TV aren't that much more. I'm sure some of the top schools like Houston, Memphis, and UCF can make it work, but how long will the others be able to keep up? Travel costs, salaries, and facility costs are growing much fast in that league than all of the others.

Houston can make it work as long as their billionaire sugar daddy is paying the bill.

Real realignment may/will happen when the P5 have the TV contracts up. That is what caused the mess last time.

Let the AAC ink their TV deal before writing their obituary.

We are in a state of flux in the sports broadcasting model and I think a reasonable argument could be made that AAC gets significantly more or a modest increase. Really comes down to what the potential bidders want and have in mind.

My guess is they get a nice bump if they are willing to move some content to ESPN+, not so sure networks outside of ESPN are inclined to spend a lot.

(01-22-2019 04:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Let the AAC ink their TV deal before writing their obituary.

I can't see a massive increase for AAC. With ESPN's cord cutting woes I'm not sure I see them having the cash to offer any kind of significant increase to a non-P5.

Idaho has moved down. If UConn moves down too I think it removes the stigma and shows other struggling programs it's ok to make the tough financial decision.

Expansion is done on the G5 level.

If UCONN drops, the AAC will do nothing.

Any and all movement in the future will come from contraction. Smaller, tighter, regional conferences are the future of the G5.

(01-22-2019 05:25 PM)CAJUNNATION Wrote:  Expansion is done on the G5 level.

If UCONN drops, the AAC will do nothing.

Any and all movement in the future will come from contraction. Smaller, tighter, regional conferences are the future of the G5.

This is 100% accurate and will happen soon.

The tighter the conference the greater the leverage in that geographic area to recruit student athletes. Follow the money. Rivalries are formed geographically...

With the Sun Belt blurring the lines it happens sooner unfortunately further delaying our efforts but should pay long term dividends. If it doesn't we're already the tightest in the G5 and it seems to be working fine.

The AAC, MWC and CUSA all have the same problem of travel cost for all sports. I agree the next shuffle will be for tighter geographical conferences, increases fan support, create rivals and decreases travel cost for all sports.

Increased fan support from home and opposing teams, with closer away games, will increase attendance, create a better atmosphere and promote the sell of team attire.

Even though the SBC is the best geographical conference, when the mix up happens, the SBC will also be split apart, unfortunately. But the advantages of App St being in the same conference as ECU, Marshal, UNCC would benefit them greatfully, the same with the Texas schools being together as well as the central southeastern schools such as South, USM and Tulane being together.

It will disappointing and exciting all at the same time.

(01-22-2019 05:56 PM)Usajags Wrote:  The AAC, MWC and CUSA all have the same problem of travel cost for all sports. I agree the next shuffle will be for tighter geographical conferences, increases fan support, create rivals and decreases travel cost for all sports.

Increased fan support from home and opposing teams, with closer away games, will increase attendance, create a better atmosphere and promote the sell of team attire.

Even though the SBC is the best geographical conference, when the mix up happens, the SBC will also be split apart, unfortunately. But the advantages of App St being in the same conference as ECU, Marshal, UNCC would benefit them greatfully, the same with the Texas schools being together as well as the central southeastern schools such as South, USM and Tulane being together.
When what you describe occurs the fringe geographic and the not so attractive due to image are going to find it hard to parlay themselves into a seat. I think we will see a heck of a game of musical chairs. There will be casualties that will try to spin it but may go to FCS out of forced! Necessity!

It will disappointing and exciting all at the same time.

(01-22-2019 06:19 PM)BuzzLightyear Wrote:  

(01-22-2019 05:56 PM)Usajags Wrote:  The AAC, MWC and CUSA all have the same problem of travel cost for all sports. I agree the next shuffle will be for tighter geographical conferences, increases fan support, create rivals and decreases travel cost for all sports.

Increased fan support from home and opposing teams, with closer away games, will increase attendance, create a better atmosphere and promote the sell of team attire.

Even though the SBC is the best geographical conference, when the mix up happens, the SBC will also be split apart, unfortunately. But the advantages of App St being in the same conference as ECU, Marshal, UNCC would benefit them greatfully, the same with the Texas schools being together as well as the central southeastern schools such as South, USM and Tulane being together.
When what you describe occurs the fringe geographic and the not so attractive due to image are going to find it hard to parlay themselves into a seat. I think we will see a heck of a game of musical chairs. There will be casualties that will try to spin it but may go to FCS out of forced! Necessity!

It will disappointing and exciting all at the same time.

I agree that some of the schools operating on a lesser budget with less facilities to “keep up with Jones’” they may be left out or forced down to FCS. The thing is, with a realignment like this, the fringes aren’t so far out anymore. If UTEP is in the same conference as NMSU and possibly UNM, they aren’t a 1000 miles from everyone. Same with F_U, if in the same conference as UCF and USF, again, then 4 schools well within driving distance of each other.

(01-22-2019 06:19 PM)BuzzLightyear Wrote:  

(01-22-2019 05:56 PM)Usajags Wrote:  The AAC, MWC and CUSA all have the same problem of travel cost for all sports. I agree the next shuffle will be for tighter geographical conferences, increases fan support, create rivals and decreases travel cost for all sports.

Increased fan support from home and opposing teams, with closer away games, will increase attendance, create a better atmosphere and promote the sell of team attire.

Even though the SBC is the best geographical conference, when the mix up happens, the SBC will also be split apart, unfortunately. But the advantages of App St being in the same conference as ECU, Marshal, UNCC would benefit them greatfully, the same with the Texas schools being together as well as the central southeastern schools such as South, USM and Tulane being together.
When what you describe occurs the fringe geographic and the not so attractive due to image are going to find it hard to parlay themselves into a seat. I think we will see a heck of a game of musical chairs. There will be casualties that will try to spin it but may go to FCS out of forced! Necessity!

It will disappointing and exciting all at the same time.

IF App gets ECU and Marshal GS gets App, South Florida and UCF. Much like long standing attendance records at UGA and Ga Tech GS fans would travel well to those two likely doing the same. What to do with FIU and FAU?

Here we go...more regional, the Texas schools can duke it out in the same conference, and some of those "big markets" get to stick together. I feel like the new Sun Belt would give the American a run most years.

New Sun Belt:

EAST
- Appalachian State
- Georgia Southern
- Georgia State
- Marshall
- Middle Tennessee
- Western Kentucky

WEST
- Arkansas State
- Louisiana
- Louisiana Tech
- South Alabama
- Southern Miss
- Troy


New Conference USA:

EAST
- Charlotte
- Coastal Carolina
- Florida Atlantic
- Florida International
- Old Dominion
- UAB

WEST
- North Texas
- Rice
- Texas State
- ULM
- UTEP
- UTSA

(01-22-2019 05:13 PM)APPdiesel Wrote:  

(01-22-2019 04:36 PM)arkstfan Wrote:  Let the AAC ink their TV deal before writing their obituary.

I can't see a massive increase for AAC. With ESPN's cord cutting woes I'm not sure I see them having the cash to offer any kind of significant increase to a non-P5.

Idaho has moved down. If UConn moves down too I think it removes the stigma and shows other struggling programs it's ok to make the tough financial decision.

I think they'll get 3-4x their current amount personally. Even that is still just a small dent in uconns problem however

(01-22-2019 06:59 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  Here we go...more regional, the Texas schools can duke it out in the same conference, and some of those "big markets" get to stick together. I feel like the new Sun Belt would give the American a run most years.

New Sun Belt:

EAST
- Appalachian State
- Georgia Southern
- Georgia State
- Marshall
- Middle Tennessee
- Western Kentucky

WEST
- Arkansas State
- Louisiana
- Louisiana Tech
- South Alabama
- Southern Miss
- Troy


New Conference USA:

EAST
- Charlotte
- Coastal Carolina
- Florida Atlantic
- Florida International
- Old Dominion
- UAB

WEST
- North Texas
- Rice
- Texas State
- ULM
- UTEP
- UTSA

If you were looking for a tighter geographic conference, the "new CUSA" would have the 5 Texas schools in the West and Ark St, ULL, ULM, La Tech and USM. With the exception of UTEP being that outlier, that would be pretty tight geographically for each division.

In reality, UTEP needs to be in a conference with UNM and NMSU as travel partners. The really should be in the MWC.

(01-22-2019 11:44 PM)InjunJohn86 Wrote:  

(01-22-2019 06:59 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  Here we go...more regional, the Texas schools can duke it out in the same conference, and some of those "big markets" get to stick together. I feel like the new Sun Belt would give the American a run most years.

New Sun Belt:

EAST
- Appalachian State
- Georgia Southern
- Georgia State
- Marshall
- Middle Tennessee
- Western Kentucky

WEST
- Arkansas State
- Louisiana
- Louisiana Tech
- South Alabama
- Southern Miss
- Troy


New Conference USA:

EAST
- Charlotte
- Coastal Carolina
- Florida Atlantic
- Florida International
- Old Dominion
- UAB

WEST
- North Texas
- Rice
- Texas State
- ULM
- UTEP
- UTSA

If you were looking for a tighter geographic conference, the "new CUSA" would have the 5 Texas schools in the West and Ark St, ULL, ULM, La Tech and USM. With the exception of UTEP being that outlier, that would be pretty tight geographically for each division.

In reality, UTEP needs to be in a conference with UNM and NMSU as travel partners. The really should be in the MWC.

Here is how I would structure the conferences:

UTEP and NMSU should move to the MWC. If the MWC won't expand, keep UTEP in the New SBC South. If they do expand, replace UTEP with

New Sun Belt:

NORTH
- Arkansas State
- LA Tech
- N. Texas
- UAB
- Middle Tennessee
- Western Kentucky

SOUTH
- S. Miss
- Louisiana
- Rice
- Texas State
- UTSA
- UTEP


New Conference USA:

NORTH
- Marshall
- App State
- ODU
- Charlotte
- GA Southern
- GA State

SOUTH

- Coastal Carolina
- FIU
- FAU
- S. Alabama
- Troy
- ULM

We should focus on sticking together as a conference. Stability has gone a long way to helping the Sun Belt rise above the MAC and CUSA. None of our teams are struggling to afford the travel costs of the Sun Belt and none of our schools are reeling from a loss of media money or a low CFP payout compared to what they used to receive before the last wave of realignment. Other than playing nearby schools in CUSA, there is virtually no reason for any Sun Belt school to realign with CUSA geographically or otherwise. If a Sun Belt school wants to play nearby CUSA schools so badly, the easier way would be to get them on the out-of-conference schedule.

(01-23-2019 11:58 AM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  We should focus on sticking together as a conference. Stability has gone a long way to helping the Sun Belt rise above the MAC and CUSA. None of our teams are struggling to afford the travel costs of the Sun Belt and none of our schools are reeling from a loss of media money or a low CFP payout compared to what they used to receive before the last wave of realignment. Other than playing nearby schools in CUSA, there is virtually no reason for any Sun Belt school to realign with CUSA geographically or otherwise. If a Sun Belt school wants to play nearby CUSA schools so badly, the easier way would be to get them on the out-of-conference schedule.

Yep. Agreed. Even though I would like App/Marshall to be a yearly event, we've been able to keep a steady stream of CUSA-East (and easterly CUSA-W) teams on the schedule. ODU, UNCC, Marshall, and USM have all been on the schedule. WKU and MTSU probably will be on the future schedule as well.

(01-23-2019 11:47 AM)HoustonCajun Wrote:  

(01-22-2019 11:44 PM)InjunJohn86 Wrote:  

(01-22-2019 06:59 PM)BlueBird10 Wrote:  Here we go...more regional, the Texas schools can duke it out in the same conference, and some of those "big markets" get to stick together. I feel like the new Sun Belt would give the American a run most years.

New Sun Belt:

EAST
- Appalachian State
- Georgia Southern
- Georgia State
- Marshall
- Middle Tennessee
- Western Kentucky

WEST
- Arkansas State
- Louisiana
- Louisiana Tech
- South Alabama
- Southern Miss
- Troy


New Conference USA:

EAST
- Charlotte
- Coastal Carolina
- Florida Atlantic
- Florida International
- Old Dominion
- UAB

WEST
- North Texas
- Rice
- Texas State
- ULM
- UTEP
- UTSA

If you were looking for a tighter geographic conference, the "new CUSA" would have the 5 Texas schools in the West and Ark St, ULL, ULM, La Tech and USM. With the exception of UTEP being that outlier, that would be pretty tight geographically for each division.

In reality, UTEP needs to be in a conference with UNM and NMSU as travel partners. The really should be in the MWC.

Here is how I would structure the conferences:

UTEP and NMSU should move to the MWC. If the MWC won't expand, keep UTEP in the New SBC South. If they do expand, replace UTEP with

New Sun Belt:

NORTH
- Arkansas State
- LA Tech
- N. Texas
- UAB
- Middle Tennessee
- Western Kentucky

SOUTH
- S. Miss
- Louisiana
- Rice
- Texas State
- UTSA
- UTEP


New Conference USA:

NORTH
- Marshall
- App State
- ODU
- Charlotte
- GA Southern
- GA State

SOUTH

- Coastal Carolina
- FIU
- FAU
- S. Alabama
- Troy
- ULM

There's so many possibilities you can go with this. It makes it rather interesting. Personally I enjoy playing App State every year, but it would not break me if they split Southern and App in different divisions (especially if they were to see each other in a title game).

I think the Louisiana schools, Ark State, and Texas State are great schools that will continue to grow and prosper, but I'm not sure they are the best partner for the Carolina and Georgia schools. It may just be me, but there's a strong connection of familiarity along I-95. I think most Statesboro/ Savannah residents can attest to this that they haven't visit those areas to the west as much as those areas to the south and north.

So maybe you should get out more?

(01-23-2019 11:58 AM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  We should focus on sticking together as a conference. Stability has gone a long way to helping the Sun Belt rise above the MAC and CUSA. None of our teams are struggling to afford the travel costs of the Sun Belt and none of our schools are reeling from a loss of media money or a low CFP payout compared to what they used to receive before the last wave of realignment. Other than playing nearby schools in CUSA, there is virtually no reason for any Sun Belt school to realign with CUSA geographically or otherwise. If a Sun Belt school wants to play nearby CUSA schools so badly, the easier way would be to get them on the out-of-conference schedule.

Agreed. Reshuffling breeds a TON of questions.

- How much can each school really save in travel?
- How much will each school stand lose in CFP, bowl, and TV revenue payouts?
- Can each achool sustain themselves during the transitional process on travel savings (and the hope of ticket sales increases)?
- Will each school's administration even agree to a reshuffle?
- Will fans and big time donors agree and keep supporting at the same level?
- Will ESPN agree to pay any of these new conferences close to what they're paying now?
- Will ESPN devote the same amount of air time to these new conferences?

There's a lot more to this than just connecting dots on a map. If it happens it won't go easy or clean.

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