(01-30-2019 11:20 AM)sctvman Wrote:  Doesn’t help that the CAA is only the #22 conference this year in KenPom. It is below the Atlantic Sun and barely above the Big South...

Sure. That is a result of poor OOC schedules across the board. That is why I said improving. I did not say the conference is there right now. Conference ranks get bolstered by actually playing difficult games. There were very few decent OOC games this year. As far as the programs themselves, it is nice to see improvements across the board where the CAA looks like it is going to be strong again (even if never as strong as the end of the old CAA)

In reality, the CAA is likely responsible for things being the way they currently are. The P5 was less than thrilled that 2 CAA schools reached the final four. In fact, the exodus of mid major bids began right after VCU's run to the final four. I don't actually think the rank of the conference makes any real difference. When the CAA was ninth a few years ago, no team even got a sniff of an at large. There have been a few decent candidates, but all ultimately get snubbed. I expect no more than 5 mid majors in the tourney this year as at larges and that would include if somehow Gonzaga has to use at large bid. But, most CAA fans would rather pull for the CAA representative to pull off some upsets in the NCAA tourney that an FCS style tourney. While no CAA schools have won a tourney game recently, there have been multiple close calls. Also, I think it will be very difficult for Hofstra to beat Charleston in the tournament. Let's just say that the venue is not a favorable one for the Pride.(or anyone save perhaps UNCW other than the Cougars) Probably the best hope would be if Charleston finishes 4th or 5th and they can catch them in the semis. A Hofstra/Northeastern final might only have 2,000 fans. Would love to see the CAA get 2 bids, but I don't see it happening even if Hofstra loses in Double OT in the championship.

(01-30-2019 11:52 AM)dan10 Wrote:  

(01-30-2019 11:20 AM)sctvman Wrote:  Doesn’t help that the CAA is only the #22 conference this year in KenPom. It is below the Atlantic Sun and barely above the Big South...

Sure. That is a result of poor OOC schedules across the board. That is why I said improving. I did not say the conference is there right now. Conference ranks get bolstered by actually playing difficult games. There were very few decent OOC games this year. As far as the programs themselves, it is nice to see improvements across the board where the CAA looks like it is going to be strong again (even if never as strong as the end of the old CAA)

W&M and UNCW both had strong OOC schedules. Unfortunately, both lost most of the games this year. W&M always has a good nonconference schedule.

You are right but when 7 of the 10 teams are flirting or worse than an OOC rpi of 200, thats a problem. NU, UNCW and W&M did have good OOC schedules.

(01-30-2019 11:20 AM)sctvman Wrote:  Doesn’t help that the CAA is only the #22 conference this year in KenPom. It is below the Atlantic Sun and barely above the Big South...

No kidding.

When was the last time the CAA had only 4 team with a winning record heading into February?

(01-30-2019 12:48 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(01-30-2019 11:20 AM)sctvman Wrote:  Doesn’t help that the CAA is only the #22 conference this year in KenPom. It is below the Atlantic Sun and barely above the Big South...

No kidding.

When was the last time the CAA had only 4 team with a winning record heading into February?

To solohawks:
2013-2014 was the only time since the northern teams joined that the CAA had 9 teams. It was Charleston's first season, and Elon joined in 2014-2015. Delaware, Drexel, Towson, and William & Mary were the four CAA teams above .500 both entering February and after the season.

To sctvman:
That's bad, but at least the CAA is better in the NET than in KenPom. CAA teams have an average rank of 197.6 in the NET and 217.8 in KenPom.

(01-30-2019 04:48 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  

(01-30-2019 12:48 PM)solohawks Wrote:  

(01-30-2019 11:20 AM)sctvman Wrote:  Doesn’t help that the CAA is only the #22 conference this year in KenPom. It is below the Atlantic Sun and barely above the Big South...

No kidding.

When was the last time the CAA had only 4 team with a winning record heading into February?

To solohawks:
2013-2014 was the only time since the northern teams joined that the CAA had 9 teams. It was Charleston's first season, and Elon joined in 2014-2015. Delaware, Drexel, Towson, and William & Mary were the four CAA teams above .500 both entering February and after the season.

To sctvman:
That's bad, but at least the CAA is better in the NET than in KenPom. CAA teams have an average rank of 197.6 in the NET and 217.8 in KenPom.

What seed did the CAA champ get that year?

Delaware got a 13 seed. They were 25-9 on Selection Sunday.

Still a lot to be decided. Just about everything for the bye is still up for grabs and seeding is as clear as mud.

With 2 games left, all we know is Charleston is the #3 seed and UNCW is somewhere between 7 and 10. No other slots are decided yet. Northeastern and Hofstra can be no worse than the #2 seed. All the other 6 teams have yet to clinch a spot in the Sunday round of the tournament. All 4 games Thursday will have direct impact on the 7 thru 10 slots.

It is definitely crazy with how little is decided this late in the season. At the same time I think most can objectively say that other than the top 3, our league is a jumbled mess, no 1 team is that much better or worse than another.

Even the top 3 are not way ahead of the rest. All have lost to lower teams. This could be the year someone out of the pack could win the tourney. Hofstra super short bench could spell doom for them playing third games in 3 days against a team with a much deeper bench

If a team seeded 6, 7, or 10 beats all of the top three, it could be the most unlikely CAA Tournament winner ever. 3 vs. 6 is the last Quarterfinal, so the 6 will know before playing Charleston if the Semifinal will be against the 2 or if that team lost the third Quarterfinal.

I'm with Evan on this. Posters can say anyone can beat anyone, but the champion has been a 1, 2 or 3 seed every year of the CAA tournament save one(1993 ECU). Yes, it is possible for an upset, but can any of the bottom 7 teams win 3 straight? Not likely at all. While any of the bottom 7 are capable of an upset, there is a reason none of them are currently above .500 in the league. They each lack consistency. JMU beat Hofstra at Hofstra, but they lost badly at Northeastern last week and have 10 league losses for a reason. Same with UNCW, Delaware, the Tribe, Drexel, etc.. The games will be very exciting and the tournament is going to be fun, but it would be a real surprise to see any of the bottom 7 emerge at champion.

The Tribe has reached at least the semis 5 straight years. In 4 of those years, the Tribe lost to the eventual champion and also they lost to the #1 seed 4 times in those 5 years. The only time they didn't was in 2015 when they were the #1 seed(losing to Northeastern in the championship). The only non-champion to beat the Tribe was #1 Hofstra in 2016(who then lost the final to UNCW in OT). So, recent history says you need to defeat the Tribe in the tourney to win the championship.

But, purely based on how the teams have played all year, you would think it could be an advantage for Hofstra to only have to beat one of the top 3 rather than 2. But, Hofstra needs to win either Thurs. or Saturday to secure the top seed(unless Northeastern also loses a game this week). Northeastern appears to be in the best form currently. #6 is a terrible spot, but it was the spot ECU had way back in 1993.

Exactly. While upsets happen, sustained upsets don't. And while the top 3 can lay an egg at any point or a team get hot for a game, there is a large gap between the top 3 and the rest. W&M appears to be trying to close that gap but they have not done that yet. The top 3 all went through a lull at some point, NU early, CofC sorta of middle of the season, and Hofstra is currently in one, but all of the teams have come out of their lulls strong. Right now it appears to be NU, HU then CofC then W&M then everyone else. 1 of the top 3 seeds is going to win without a doubt.

The 1 plays the first Semifinal. The best hope for a 4 or 5 to win would be beating the 1 followed by the 2 and 3 going overtime. If the 2 vs. 3 is Northeastern kind of at Charleston, that went overtime 10 days ago.

(02-26-2019 11:25 AM)TribePride91 Wrote:  #6 is a terrible spot, but it was the spot ECU had way back in 1993.

ECU was the 7. There were 8 teams and no byes, so it was easier to win as a 7 then. They were 4-10 in the CAA. Since the northern teams joined, the worst record by a tournament winner is 11-7 by JMU in 2013.

I never rule out anyone in tourney play. Although not likely anything can happen. Most unlikely winner of a conference tourney in recent history was GA in 2008. They were 4-12 in conference play. Because of a tornado one night during tourney games were canceled and GA played and won 2 games the next day.