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57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
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Marc Mensa Offline
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Post: #1
57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
perhaps they're tired of #winning.


https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/57...mp-in-2020
01-17-2019 10:32 AM
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bobdizole Online
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Post: #2
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
Dang, how'd they manage to poll 57% of registered voters? That's almost 300,000,000 people. And someone definitely committed fraud because I don't remember casting my opinion in that poll.

Polls are the opiate of the desperate.
01-17-2019 10:35 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #3
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
You guys do this in every poll I swear,

"There are 324 Republicans and Republican leaning
independents and 417 Democrats and Democratic leaning independents"

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/npr-pbs-new...wBW5b.dpbs
01-17-2019 10:43 AM
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stinkfist Offline
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Post: #4
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 10:35 AM)bobdizole Wrote:  Dang, how'd they manage to poll 57% of registered voters? That's almost 300,000,000 people. And someone definitely committed fraud because I don't remember casting my opinion in that poll.

Polls are the opiate of the desperate.

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01-17-2019 10:47 AM
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BadgerMJ Offline
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RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 10:32 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  perhaps they're tired of #winning.


https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/57...mp-in-2020

Few thoughts.

1) A lot can happen in 2 years.

2) BIG difference between registered voters and likely voters.

3) I'm sure some folks are like me and when they hear it's a PBS poll, lie about what they think.
01-17-2019 10:47 AM
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Marc Mensa Offline
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RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 10:43 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  You guys do this in every poll I swear,

"There are 324 Republicans and Republican leaning
independents and 417 Democrats and Democratic leaning independents"

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/npr-pbs-new...wBW5b.dpbs

that is because 50% of the country identifies as a democrat, or democratically leaning independent while 42% of the country identifies as a republican or republican leaning independent.

http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1...ic-groups/
01-17-2019 11:00 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #7
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 11:00 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(01-17-2019 10:43 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  You guys do this in every poll I swear,

"There are 324 Republicans and Republican leaning
independents and 417 Democrats and Democratic leaning independents"

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/npr-pbs-new...wBW5b.dpbs

that is because 50% of the country identifies as a democrat, or democratically leaning independent while 42% of the country identifies as a republican or republican leaning independent.

http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1...ic-groups/

Still over sampled Dems. Dumb poll there isn't even a Dem candidate. All that matters is a few swing states. With your high IQ you should understand this.
01-17-2019 11:05 AM
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Claw Offline
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Post: #8
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
With blue states going overwhelming anti-Trump, I'm not sure 57% elects anyone. It depends entirely on how the poll lays over the electoral college numbers.
01-17-2019 11:07 AM
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Marc Mensa Offline
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Post: #9
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 11:07 AM)Claw Wrote:  With blue states going overwhelming anti-Trump, I'm not sure 57% elects anyone. It depends entirely on how the poll lays over the electoral college numbers.

Undoubtedly, red states are redder and blue states are bluer. The problem for Trump is he has lost independents... people who thought he be more socially pragmatic and were willing to give him a chance. There are likely few undecided when it comes to Trump.
01-17-2019 11:14 AM
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fsquid Offline
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Post: #10
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
so he's losing in the 2nd inning.
01-17-2019 11:18 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #11
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 11:00 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(01-17-2019 10:43 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  You guys do this in every poll I swear,

"There are 324 Republicans and Republican leaning
independents and 417 Democrats and Democratic leaning independents"

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/npr-pbs-new...wBW5b.dpbs

that is because 50% of the country identifies as a democrat, or democratically leaning independent while 42% of the country identifies as a republican or republican leaning independent.

http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1...ic-groups/

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Last year, 42% of Americans, on average, identified as political independents, erasing the decline to 39% seen in the 2016 presidential election year. Independent identification is just one percentage point below the high of 43% in 2014. Twenty-nine percent of Americans identify themselves as Democrats and 27% as Republicans.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/225056/amer...-2017.aspx
01-17-2019 11:19 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #12
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 11:18 AM)fsquid Wrote:  so he's losing in the 2nd inning.

Not even the first pitch until the Dems have their candidate.
01-17-2019 11:20 AM
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Marc Mensa Offline
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Post: #13
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 11:18 AM)fsquid Wrote:  so he's losing in the 2nd inning.

more like the 5th...
01-17-2019 11:21 AM
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Crebman Offline
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Post: #14
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 11:21 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(01-17-2019 11:18 AM)fsquid Wrote:  so he's losing in the 2nd inning.

more like the 5th...

In politics - not close to the 5th. Hell, at this point, nobody has a clue who is the other team playing in the game........The "R" pitcher is still warming up in the bullpen, but we don't know what team he will face.......
01-17-2019 11:28 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #15
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 11:21 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(01-17-2019 11:18 AM)fsquid Wrote:  so he's losing in the 2nd inning.

more like the 5th...

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01-17-2019 11:32 AM
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Captain Bearcat Offline
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RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 10:32 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  perhaps they're tired of #winning.


https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/57...mp-in-2020

I'm pretty sure over 60% of people didn't support Trump in 2016. I know lots of people who didn't support Trump, but they still voted for him.

We're in a multipolar world. Trump's base is 30%, and 30% can be enough to get you elected when there's 8-10 different factions.

If Trump can also get the votes of pro-life Catholics (who can't stand Trump but hate pro-choice politicians even more) and libertarians (who can't stand Trump but hate socialism even more), then he's got 40%. So he only needs 6% more to get where he was in 2016. Even if he loses true independents, Trump can compete for the votes of Main Street Republicans (who hate Trump's extremism but are turned off by identity politics) or Rockefeller Republicans (aka Wall Street, who are liberal on social issues but conservative on economic issues). Trump will win those groups handily if Democrats take a hard swing left.
01-17-2019 11:41 AM
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Post: #17
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 11:00 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(01-17-2019 10:43 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  You guys do this in every poll I swear,

"There are 324 Republicans and Republican leaning
independents and 417 Democrats and Democratic leaning independents"

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/npr-pbs-new...wBW5b.dpbs

that is because 50% of the country identifies as a democrat, or democratically leaning independent while 42% of the country identifies as a republican or republican leaning independent.

http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1...ic-groups/

And yet HilLIARy still lost to a guy that running his very first political campaign.
01-17-2019 11:55 AM
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Marc Mensa Offline
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Post: #18
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 11:41 AM)Captain Bearcat Wrote:  
(01-17-2019 10:32 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  perhaps they're tired of #winning.


https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/57...mp-in-2020

I'm pretty sure over 60% of people didn't support Trump in 2016. I know lots of people who didn't support Trump, but they still voted for him.

We're in a multipolar world. Trump's base is 30%, and 30% can be enough to get you elected when there's 8-10 different factions.

If Trump can also get the votes of pro-life Catholics (who can't stand Trump but hate pro-choice politicians even more) and libertarians (who can't stand Trump but hate socialism even more), then he's got 40%. So he only needs 6% more to get where he was in 2016. Even if he loses true independents, Trump can compete for the votes of Main Street Republicans (who hate Trump's extremism but are turned off by identity politics) or Rockefeller Republicans (aka Wall Street, who are liberal on social issues but conservative on economic issues). Trump will win those groups handily if Democrats take a hard swing left.

In 2016, many did not know what kind of President he would be... 2 years later and its apparent. He's an incumbent and he'll have a track record, and while that record is very appealing to his base, its not helping him with the remaining 70%.

He can turn it around, but there are no signs he will.
01-17-2019 11:59 AM
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SuperFlyBCat Offline
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Post: #19
RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 11:55 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  
(01-17-2019 11:00 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(01-17-2019 10:43 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  You guys do this in every poll I swear,

"There are 324 Republicans and Republican leaning
independents and 417 Democrats and Democratic leaning independents"

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/npr-pbs-new...wBW5b.dpbs

that is because 50% of the country identifies as a democrat, or democratically leaning independent while 42% of the country identifies as a republican or republican leaning independent.

http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1...ic-groups/

And yet HilLIARy still lost to a guy that running his very first political campaign.

And the CIA, FBI, DOJ plotting against him.
01-17-2019 12:02 PM
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Marc Mensa Offline
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RE: 57% of registered voters say they will not support Trump in 2020
(01-17-2019 11:28 AM)Crebman Wrote:  
(01-17-2019 11:21 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  
(01-17-2019 11:18 AM)fsquid Wrote:  so he's losing in the 2nd inning.

more like the 5th...

In politics - not close to the 5th. Hell, at this point, nobody has a clue who is the other team playing in the game........The "R" pitcher is still warming up in the bullpen, but we don't know what team he will face.......

Feel free to rationalize all you want. He just lost the House in a wave, while having an economy that should have helped his party. Donald Trump evokes a strong reaction, one way or the other. There is little middle ground. Sure, the Democrats have to field a decent candidate, but most have formed an opinion on Trump.
01-17-2019 12:05 PM
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