I don't believe it. It's just another fake poll rigged by our fake president. Witch Hunt.

(01-17-2019 11:18 AM)fsquid Wrote:  so he's losing in the 2nd inning.

Not even, the teams haven't even been drafted yet.

Those in the 57% are comparing Trump to their favorite candidate. The vast majority aren't going to get their favorite candidate, and that number will crumble.

Fake news.

(01-17-2019 10:43 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  You guys do this in every poll I swear,

"There are 324 Republicans and Republican leaning
independents and 417 Democrats and Democratic leaning independents"

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/npr-pbs-new...wBW5b.dpbs

Thats how they do every poll. Thats actually one of the more balanced polling pools. Ive seen major polls with sample pools that are over 2/3rds Democrat. Such polling is are about as news worthy as "Alien Bat Boy" stories in the National Equirer. Thats how you end up with Trump after the polling suggested a Hillary landslide. Some people never learn.

(01-17-2019 10:35 AM)bobdizole Wrote:  Dang, how'd they manage to poll 57% of registered voters? That's almost 300,000,000 people. And someone definitely committed fraud because I don't remember casting my opinion in that poll.

Polls are the opiate of the desperate.

Well there are actual data points from 2018 we can review.

Jurisdictions where Trump got a plurality in 2016

Michigan. Dem Governor 55%, Dem Senate 54%
Wisconsin Dem Governor 50.2%, Dem Senate 56%
Pennsylvania Dem Governor 58%, Dem House Races 54%
ME-02. Dem House 52%, Dem Governors race +2% in a 3 way race.

----

How are you going to win Michigan and Pennsylvania? I also question where the Tammy Baldwin/Trump voters are.


----

And beyond that, Dems did split statewide in Arizona (lost Governor, won Senate), won in NC's House races (no state or Senate race), split Iowa (won House races, but lost Governor - barely), and split in Ohio (Dem won Senate, GOP won governor)

And that's before you get into GOP weakness in TX, GA, and FL (razor thin margins - and the Dems did win a statewide office). And importantly in NE-02, which was razor thin.

---

Winning MI, WI, and PA gives the Dems the Presidency. Winning MI and PA plus NE-02 and ME-02 also does the same thing.

Winning MI, PA and one of NE-02/ME-02 results in a tie.

----

Trump would have a terrible time in an election handled by the House (he actually has a majority of delegations, but that might not be the case in 2021 and remember that the members don't have to vote). If a MAJORITY of state delegations cannot agree on a candidate (if its a tie in a state delegation - the state doesn't vote), it goes to the Senate, who picks a Vice President who will take office in March 2021. That's even worse for Trump, because the Dems will just make a deal to make Lisa Murkowski President (or Vice President) and Trump would face defections from retiring Senators too.

---

For Trump, the real problem isn't the polls, but how the hell is he going to win Michigan and Pennsylvania again. The polls look bad...the 2018 election results look even worse.

I for one am anxious to hear the Dems platform

(01-17-2019 11:59 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  In 2016, many did not know what kind of President he would be... 2 years later and its apparent. He's an incumbent and he'll have a track record, and while that record is very appealing to his base, its not helping him with the remaining 70%.

He can turn it around, but there are no signs he will.

His current approval rating is in the 40%s.
Thats where Obama was for 6 years of his 8 year term, and where Bill spent half of the time of his presidency up until the same point that Trump is at now.

(01-17-2019 01:20 PM)gdunn Wrote:  I for one am anxious to hear the Dems platform

That will be the key. If they continue to veer hard left their numbers hopefully will take a turn for the worse. If not this country is pretty much doomed. This country can't survive the likes of AOC and the policies they endorse.

Only gotta win by one, baby!

(01-17-2019 01:24 PM)Lord Stanley Wrote:  Only gotta win by one, baby!

(01-17-2019 12:02 PM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 11:55 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 11:00 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 10:43 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  You guys do this in every poll I swear,

"There are 324 Republicans and Republican leaning
independents and 417 Democrats and Democratic leaning independents"

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/npr-pbs-new...wBW5b.dpbs

that is because 50% of the country identifies as a democrat, or democratically leaning independent while 42% of the country identifies as a republican or republican leaning independent.

http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/1...ic-groups/

And yet HilLIARy still lost to a guy that running his very first political campaign.

And the CIA, FBI, DOJ plotting against him.

Add the MSM, too.

(01-17-2019 01:20 PM)gdunn Wrote:  I for one am anxious to hear the Dems platform

"Orange man bad!"


That's all they've got.

Well, all they're willing to expose. Plenty of socialist/communist stuff, but they want to keep that under wraps.

(01-17-2019 01:23 PM)q5sys Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 11:59 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  In 2016, many did not know what kind of President he would be... 2 years later and its apparent. He's an incumbent and he'll have a track record, and while that record is very appealing to his base, its not helping him with the remaining 70%.

He can turn it around, but there are no signs he will.

His current approval rating is in the 40%s.
Thats where Obama was for 6 years of his 8 year term, and where Bill spent half of the time of his presidency up until the same point that Trump is at now.

Yea, but Bill Clinton triangulated to the right and people actually like Barack Obama personally. Obama also didn't play 'double down' and he was helped by an improving economic and foreign policy situation. Trump will have none of that. Obama also won the 'who looks more Presidential' metric too. Trump is a vulgar buffoon who offends everyone, ON PURPOSE, that's outside his base. Enjoy 'ownin' the Libtards' or whatever the next 2 years. See where it gets you.


I suspect that the 53% of opposition to Trump is baked into concrete opposition.

(01-17-2019 01:23 PM)q5sys Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 11:59 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  In 2016, many did not know what kind of President he would be... 2 years later and its apparent. He's an incumbent and he'll have a track record, and while that record is very appealing to his base, its not helping him with the remaining 70%.

He can turn it around, but there are no signs he will.

His current approval rating is in the 40%s.
Thats where Obama was for 6 years of his 8 year term, and where Bill spent half of the time of his presidency up until the same point that Trump is at now.

Trump's not them.

(01-17-2019 01:31 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 01:20 PM)gdunn Wrote:  I for one am anxious to hear the Dems platform

"Orange man bad!"


That's all they've got.

Well, all they're willing to expose. Plenty of socialist/communist stuff, but they want to keep that under wraps.

Well that's all we need to do. But don't worry, the platform will highlight policy differences with the GOP where the Dems enjoy majority support

1) Common sense gun control, including reinstating the assault weapons ban, registration of all guns, and greater enforcement of existing laws

2) Ensuring that carried interest is taxed at the same rate as ordinary income. Repealing Trump's tax cuts

3) Strong support of NATO and our European Allies

4) Common sense border/immigration policies, including a DREAM Act with a citizenship path, increased immigration judges, and defined asylum policies that make sense. Increased support of Central American governments in an attempt to stem the flow of refugees.

5) Redistricting that ensures that one person, one vote is implemented with as equal impact as possible across all jurisdictions. Making it easier to vote, not harder.

6) Greater support for Climate change mitigation efforts, including the conservative cap and trade capitalist solution

7) A comprehensive solution to health care, including cost controls and a public option accessible to all.

8) Expanded non-discrimination policies covering many other groups and applying to all taxpayer funded and commercial employment

9) Sensible regulation of industries where demand is not price-elastic, such as health care, education, etc.

10) Net neutrality and public internet co-ops that will be barred from selling content.

(01-17-2019 01:35 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 01:23 PM)q5sys Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 11:59 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  In 2016, many did not know what kind of President he would be... 2 years later and its apparent. He's an incumbent and he'll have a track record, and while that record is very appealing to his base, its not helping him with the remaining 70%.

He can turn it around, but there are no signs he will.

His current approval rating is in the 40%s.
Thats where Obama was for 6 years of his 8 year term, and where Bill spent half of the time of his presidency up until the same point that Trump is at now.

Yea, but Bill Clinton triangulated to the right and people actually like Barack Obama personally. Obama also didn't play 'double down' and he was helped by an improving economic and foreign policy situation. Trump will have none of that. Obama also won the 'who looks more Presidential' metric too. Trump is a vulgar buffoon who offends everyone, ON PURPOSE, that's outside his base. Enjoy 'ownin' the Libtards' or whatever the next 2 years. See where it gets you.


I suspect that the 53% of opposition to Trump is baked into concrete opposition.

Per Gallup...Trump has never seen his approval rating move above 45%, this during a relatively strong economy. Both Clinton and Obama faced much more challenging economic conditions and both had higher favorables.

Most Americans simply do not like Donald Trump.

https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185...enter.aspx

(01-17-2019 01:36 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 01:23 PM)q5sys Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 11:59 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  In 2016, many did not know what kind of President he would be... 2 years later and its apparent. He's an incumbent and he'll have a track record, and while that record is very appealing to his base, its not helping him with the remaining 70%.

He can turn it around, but there are no signs he will.

His current approval rating is in the 40%s.
Thats where Obama was for 6 years of his 8 year term, and where Bill spent half of the time of his presidency up until the same point that Trump is at now.

Trump's not them.

Obviously, but he has the same levels of support they did.
Thats what you fail or refuse to comprehend. Poeple support Trump as much as they did for Obama and Clinton.
Yet you somehow think that Trumps approval shows that he's going to lose. People know what kind of President he is, and people approve of him as much as they did the Two presidents that the left loves to worship.

There are more people on this forum that know of my support for Trump than in my family, work, or circle of friends. You know why? Because I'm afraid of personal and professional ramifications of saying so out loud out of fear of some unhinged liberal overreaction. There are many people who are on the edge, who aren't very stable, who are attracted to the Democrat Party.

So, my guess is that a lot of people in a survey or a poll are private supporters of Trump but won't say so.

Maybe I am wrong.

(01-17-2019 01:54 PM)q5sys Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 01:36 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 01:23 PM)q5sys Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 11:59 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  In 2016, many did not know what kind of President he would be... 2 years later and its apparent. He's an incumbent and he'll have a track record, and while that record is very appealing to his base, its not helping him with the remaining 70%.

He can turn it around, but there are no signs he will.

His current approval rating is in the 40%s.
Thats where Obama was for 6 years of his 8 year term, and where Bill spent half of the time of his presidency up until the same point that Trump is at now.

Trump's not them.

Obviously, but he has the same levels of support they did.
Thats what you fail or refuse to comprehend. Poeple support Trump as much as they did for Obama and Clinton.
Yet you somehow think that Trumps approval shows that he's going to lose. People know what kind of President he is, and people approve of him as much as they did the Two presidents that the left loves to worship.

No he doesn't. They guy has never seen his approval rating rise above 45%.. and then it was on his inauguration day... in economic conditions that were not nearly as bad as either faced in their first 2 years. Even so, during this same week in their presidencies, Obama and Clinton had approvals 10-12% higher than Trump.

You are right in saying..."People know what kind of President he is."

(01-17-2019 01:54 PM)q5sys Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 01:36 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 01:23 PM)q5sys Wrote:  

(01-17-2019 11:59 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  In 2016, many did not know what kind of President he would be... 2 years later and its apparent. He's an incumbent and he'll have a track record, and while that record is very appealing to his base, its not helping him with the remaining 70%.

He can turn it around, but there are no signs he will.

His current approval rating is in the 40%s.
Thats where Obama was for 6 years of his 8 year term, and where Bill spent half of the time of his presidency up until the same point that Trump is at now.

Trump's not them.

Obviously, but he has the same levels of support they did.
Thats what you fail or refuse to comprehend. Poeple support Trump as much as they did for Obama and Clinton.
Yet you somehow think that Trumps approval shows that he's going to lose. People know what kind of President he is, and people approve of him as much as they did the Two presidents that the left loves to worship.

There's a difference between mild and STRONG dislike. With Clinton and Obama, there were things that different people liked. So for them, maybe 60% could have pointed at one or two things about them they liked. With 53% of people, there's NOTHING that Trump has done that they've liked. Trump doesn't reach across the aisle, he doesn't do compromise.

The actually average number of STRONG dislike is around 48-49% and has been pretty consistent since Feb of 2017. That's not total dislike, but STRONG dislike. And around 38% is pretty consistent on strong LIKE of Trump. That leaves 14% that are reachable. The problem that Trump has is that many of those are in the moderate dislike column, or are members of groups that aren't favorable to the GOP even in favorable circumstances. And Trump is going to do nothing by p*ss them off. And that 14% are the voters that are least likely to vote as well.

Basically, Trump won the EC (and barely) by keeping Hillary's dislike numbers equal to his, collecting every single voter that was persuadable for him, depressing the Dem vote, and convincing those who don't like him to vote 3rd party. And it was still only good enough for a 3% popular vote hole. And he needed all of those things to hit.

The problem Trump has in 2020 is that the Dems start out with 48% set out in concrete, and the Dems have a strategy to prevent the GOP/Russians from depressing Dem enthusiasm. And Trump's plan of cater to the worst impulses of his base will ensure that some of that 14% isn't going to vote for him. And the Dems will focus on Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania like crazy. I'm not sure that a 3% popular vote loss gets them there this time.

That polling matches up with 2018 election results.

(01-17-2019 10:43 AM)SuperFlyBCat Wrote:  You guys do this in every poll I swear,

"There are 324 Republicans and Republican leaning
independents and 417 Democrats and Democratic leaning independents"

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/npr-pbs-new...wBW5b.dpbs

So other words 56% of those asked in this poll are democrats or lean democrat

Who's surprised by that?