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Thanks for posting. Great stuff.

(01-16-2019 02:42 PM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  Remaining games:

@Temp 45 Q1
@Mem 74 Q1
@Hou 8 Q1
@UCF 32 Q1
Hou 8 Q1

(I'd like to see 3-2, can tolerate 2-3)

@Wichita 125 Q2
UCF 32 Q2
@Uconn 88 Q2
@SMU 108 Q2
Memp 74 Q2

(I'd like to see 4-1, can tolerate 3-2)

Tulsa 111 Q3
SMU 108 Q3
Wichita 125 Q3

(I think we need a sweep, especially since they are all at home)

(01-19-2019 09:25 AM)Ring of Black Wrote:  Thanks for posting. Great stuff.

(01-16-2019 02:42 PM)Bearcat2012 Wrote:  Remaining games:

@Temp 45 Q1
@Mem 74 Q1
@Hou 8 Q1
@UCF 32 Q1
Hou 8 Q1

(I'd like to see 3-2, can tolerate 2-3)

@Wichita 125 Q2
UCF 32 Q2
@Uconn 88 Q2
@SMU 108 Q2
Memp 74 Q2

(I'd like to see 4-1, can tolerate 3-2)

Tulsa 111 Q3
SMU 108 Q3
Wichita 125 Q3

(I think we need a sweep, especially since they are all at home)

Winning out at home is a must. Cats then need three more road wins to lock up an NCAA bid. Today is almost a must win in terms of keeping team on track.

(01-19-2019 11:14 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Winning out at home is a must. Cats then need three more road wins to lock up an NCAA bid. Today is almost a must win in terms of keeping team on track.

Win at WSU. Check.

I like looking ahead in the schedule in groups of three:

Tulsa
@Temple
SMU

Honestly, the road game at Temple looks a lot less imposing than it did a few weeks ago. 3-0 is very doable here. 2-1 is worst case scenario.

(01-20-2019 06:57 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(01-19-2019 11:14 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  Winning out at home is a must. Cats then need three more road wins to lock up an NCAA bid. Today is almost a must win in terms of keeping team on track.

Win at WSU. Check.

I like looking ahead in the schedule in groups of three:

Tulsa
@Temple
SMU

Honestly, the road game at Temple looks a lot less imposing than it did a few weeks ago. 3-0 is very doable here. 2-1 is worst case scenario.

Agreed about Temple. Not that it will be easy, but Temple has been a strange program in recent years. The Owls will get an impressive win and I'll start to think they've turned the corner and can do the AAC proud. Then; head scratching losses.

Not that Penn isn't really good, but losing to them at home when Temple could have been knocking on the door to be ranked just shows its continued futility to break through and become part of the national conversation again.

I tend to look at the schedule in three game sets as well. After an ugly first half, the Bearcats did what they were supposed to do: beat a .500 conference team. Temple won't be a tougher environment but the Owls play the rock fight style well and I won't be surprised if the outcome isn't decided until inside the final minute again. And I don't see Tulsa or SMU winning at Fifth Third so @ Temple looks to be the real challenge in these next three.

Updated for the weekend. as of 1/21/19 NET rankings

-UC adds a Q2 win at Wichita
-No games flipped quadrants from last week


Q1 - 1-1 (5 games remaining)
Q2 - 2-1 (4 games remaining)
Q3 - 7-1 (3 games remaining)
Q4 - 6-0 (0 games remaining)


The Details :

Opponent, NET Ranking, Quadrant, Result
Ohio St, 39, Q2, L
NC Central, 333, Q4, W
Milw, 286, Q4, W
West Mich, 244, Q4, W
George Mason(N), 138, Q3, W
Mississippi(N), 25, Q1, W
Ark PB, 322, Q4, W
@UNLV, 150, Q3, W
NKU, 110, Q3, W
Xavier, 80, Q3, W
@missSt, 27, Q1, L
UCLA, 106, Q3, W
SC State, 338, Q4, W
Tulane, 308, Q4, W
@ECU, 226, Q3, L
@Tulsa, 100, Q2, W
Uconn, 89, Q3, W
USF, 107, Q3, W
@Wichita 115 Q2, W


Remaining games:
Tulsa 100 Q3
@Temp 61 Q1
SMU 125 Q3
@Mem 66 Q1
@Hou 7 Q1
Wichita 115 Q3
UCF 37 Q2
@Uconn 89 Q2
@SMU 125 Q2
Memp 66 Q2
@UCF 37 Q1
Hou 7 Q1


Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75.
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135.
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240.
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353.

(01-21-2019 08:50 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(01-20-2019 06:57 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Honestly, the road game at Temple looks a lot less imposing than it did a few weeks ago. 3-0 is very doable here. 2-1 is worst case scenario.

Agreed about Temple. Not that it will be easy, but Temple has been a strange program in recent years. The Owls will get an impressive win and I'll start to think they've turned the corner and can do the AAC proud. Then; head scratching losses.

Not that Penn isn't really good, but losing to them at home when Temple could have been knocking on the door to be ranked just shows its continued futility to break through and become part of the national conversation again.

I tend to look at the schedule in three game sets as well. After an ugly first half, the Bearcats did what they were supposed to do: beat a .500 conference team. Temple won't be a tougher environment but the Owls play the rock fight style well and I won't be surprised if the outcome isn't decided until inside the final minute again. And I don't see Tulsa or SMU winning at Fifth Third so @ Temple looks to be the real challenge in these next three.

Temple better keep the water bottles away from Coach Dunphy.

Very weak resume, 3 top tier 1 and 2 wins, UH already has 9.....

(01-21-2019 12:45 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  Very weak resume.....

Maybe. The last couple weeks of the season is ripe with opportunities. Basically Xavier, UCLA, UNLV, and George Mason have under achieved. That shouldn’t be UC’s fault.

I would dump quad system and focus on a teams five and ten wins versus their losses. Top five road/nuetal as well. Record versus NCAA teams including automatic bid winners also matters to me.

Does UC’s resume look that much better if Xavier is 72 instead of 79.

(01-21-2019 12:45 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  Very weak resume, 3 top tier 1 and 2 wins, UH already has 9.....

Houston also has played one top fourty team and that was a home game.

(01-21-2019 12:55 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(01-21-2019 12:45 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  Very weak resume.....

Maybe. The last couple weeks of the season is ripe with opportunities. Basically Xavier, UCLA, UNLV, and George Mason have under achieved. That shouldn’t be UC’s fault.

I would dump quad system and focus on a teams five and ten wins versus their losses. Top five road/nuetal as well. Record versus NCAA teams including automatic bid winners also matters to me.

Does UC’s resume look that much better if Xavier is 72 instead of 79.

The scheduling is the reason Houston has a 7 NET ranking and we have a 32. That 32 is currently second in the conference FWIW. The good news is we have more Q1 and Q2 opportunities ahead...

Agree. Very weak resume to date and we're squarely on the bubble. But, as mentioned above, our schedule presents plenty of opportunities with 9 of our 12 remaining games being Q1 and Q2 games.

As of today, we have essentially finished playing the bottom half of the conference, and will start playing the top half.

Lots of risks

Some opportunities

Yeah, I know some of you have essentially be saying this.

12 games left. Have to go 7-5 barring a run in the conference tourney.

(01-21-2019 02:16 PM)ucbandguy Wrote:  As of today, we have essentially finished playing the bottom half of the conference, and will start playing the top half.

Lots of risks

Some opportunities

Yeah, I know some of you have essentially be saying this.

Overall record of Conf teams they've played so far 51-39 (.566)

Overall record of Conf teams left to play 81-28 (.743)

(01-21-2019 04:17 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  12 games left. Have to go 7-5 barring a run in the conference tourney.

The American did UC a big favor by front-loading the conference schedule with the weaker opponents. With three new starters, this Bearcat team has had a chance to gain needed experience before facing the best the AAC has.

I think 7-5 is a safe bet but I also believe this team could do considerably better than that if they close out defending the three, rebound as they did Saturday and get just a few points off the bench. Oh, and did I mention "stay healthy"?

All big "ifs" but we've seen this team do all those against some quality competition pre-conference which should suggest it's capable of doing so again down the stretch.

(01-21-2019 04:17 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  12 games left. Have to go 7-5 barring a run in the conference tourney.

Tulsa
@Temple
SMU
@Memphis
@Houston
WSU
UCF
@UConn
@SMU
Memphis
@UCF
Houston

I'm going to say we go 5-1 at home and 3-3 on the road or 8-4 overall. That finishes us up at 24-7. Not too shabby.

Yeah they MUST finish 7-5 or better to feel somewhat safe to make the Dance. We are not a good road team, so hopefully we can go 6-0 at home and then split 3-3 on the road.

(01-21-2019 12:58 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(01-21-2019 12:55 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  

(01-21-2019 12:45 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  Very weak resume.....

Maybe. The last couple weeks of the season is ripe with opportunities. Basically Xavier, UCLA, UNLV, and George Mason have under achieved. That shouldn’t be UC’s fault.

I would dump quad system and focus on a teams five and ten wins versus their losses. Top five road/nuetal as well. Record versus NCAA teams including automatic bid winners also matters to me.

Does UC’s resume look that much better if Xavier is 72 instead of 79.

The scheduling is the reason Houston has a 7 NET ranking and we have a 32. That 32 is currently second in the conference FWIW. The good news is we have more Q1 and Q2 opportunities ahead...

2 shots left at a ranked team...both UH. Need to win both. If they split they 0.250 against ranked opponents.

(01-21-2019 07:26 PM)converrl Wrote:  

(01-21-2019 12:58 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  

(01-21-2019 12:55 PM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  [quote='CincyBro' pid='15849772' dateline='1548092717']
Very weak resume.....

Maybe. The last couple weeks of the season is ripe with opportunities. Basically Xavier, UCLA, UNLV, and George Mason have under achieved. That shouldn’t be UC’s fault.

I would dump quad system and focus on a teams five and ten wins versus their losses. Top five road/nuetal as well. Record versus NCAA teams including automatic bid winners also matters to me.

Does UC’s resume look that much better if Xavier is 72 instead of 79.

The scheduling is the reason Houston has a 7 NET ranking and we have a 32. That 32 is currently second in the conference FWIW. The good news is we have more Q1 and Q2 opportunities ahead...

2 shots left at a ranked team...both UH. Need to win both. If they split they 0.250 against ranked opponents.
[/quote

UC is unlikely to beat Houston twice. Houston will be ranked high enough that we only Need to beat them once. Even that won't be easy. Winnning at Temple next Sunday will be an important game. Ditto at Connecticut and at Memphis. Think we beat UCF twice.

I feel that UC will fair very well the rest of the season. Most of the teams on the schedule average higher than average personal fouls and turnovers, which UC usually excels against. Houston's bigs still can't play defense without fouling.