(01-14-2019 02:45 PM)TroyFootball05 Wrote: (01-14-2019 02:31 PM)ericsaid Wrote: The obvious idea of the OP in this situation is to demean App State fans.
He's simply refuting what many app fans believe. It's not belittling to have a counter argument. I'm all for stats based arguments, and as I've said before, I think both App and Troy will have growing pains with their new staves. Neither have head coaches that have been head coaches at the college level. Troy's assistants aren't really blowing away, but they could turn out to be really good. It's just really hard to replace Neal Brown and Scott Satterfield with rookie head coaches.
A statistics based argument must have a relevant time frame. As was pointed out previously, measuring how a new coach does a year after going 11-2 isn't going to paint a complete picture. For many programs, particularly in the G5, 10 win seasons happen with senior laden rosters. Thus, even with the existing coach, the win total was more likely than not to decrease year over year.
Using the following season after the existing coach leaves to measure how a program fares after having their coach hired away is extremely misleading. If you want to know how the program has fared, do a five year win total analysis (total number of seasons under each coach). For Georgia Southern that would be 3 seasons with Fritz and then two years with Summers. For UCF that would be 3 years with Frost and then the following however many seasons with the new coach.
The question of "How a Program Fares" would suggest that you are determining the overall health of the program. For this particular chart, the better title would be "How a Program Fares in the Season Following". To further expand on that thought, you could start with 9 wins and ask how a G5 Team fares the season following a 9 win season. My guess is that the statistics from the latter would look very similar to the former.
If you want to take it FURTHERRRRR you can add the number of departures from the roster following the 9 win season, coaching change, and then try to draw conclusions of causation of the reduction in wins.
However, simply measuring the number of wins the season following a coach being hired away proves nothing about how a program fares overall and there is no context for understanding how a team may have fared even with the old coach based on the other data I mentioned.