RE: Democrats starting to crack over the wall
Most Democrats, including those in Congress and the Senate, are NOT in favor of completely open borders. Most remain opposed to Trump's stupid wall, which is counterproductive, harms communities on our side of the border, and takes focus away from the real illegal immigration threat, which is at our AIRPORTS.
The Dems have always supported common sense border protections, of which a wall isn't a part of. They also insist on an end to CBP/ICE abuse of asylum seekers and legal American residents/citizens that are of color who happen to live or travel near the border, or who speak Spanish.
The issue is that the Trumpers are unwilling to concede anything concrete in return, which at a minimum would include vastly higher resources and OVERSIGHT of our asylum procedures, an end to blocking asylum requests at legal ports of entry, due process for those in our immigration courts, the DREAM act with a path to citizenship, and an end to using kids as bait to lure in parents or relatives for deportation.
Trump is unwilling to compromise. He started this fight, completely unnecessarily by insisting that paying the Coast Guard, Corrections Officers, Air Traffic Controllers, and IRS refunds for their work is contingent upon the Dems letting him do what he wants at the border. Elections have consequences, and this is one consequence. You either have to convince people to support your idea or you have to compromise. Trump no longer holds all the cards.
The Dems aren't changing their views on immigration. They aren't coming closer to Trump's views. They aren't caving.
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From a political standpoint, the Dems lose nothing by letting this ride. Trump took credit for the shutdown back in December. The Senate won't even bring up a bill they passed 3 weeks before the shutdown to reopen government. Vast majorities of Democrats and Independents blame the Trumpers and the GOP for it. And Trump's address was a disaster for the GOP. In the House, Pelosi is simply holding vote after vote after vote, forcing Republican Congressmen to vote on funding individual agencies while this goes on. So the Dems can claim....we're in favor of ending this, and letting the wall debate continue. So far 12 GOP Congressmen have voted against Trump on these bills. I expect more to join them. Because the Dems can now claim that every GOP Congressman that votes against these 'reopening' bills is voting to continue the shutdown, voting to personally stop checks from being paid to local constituents, holding up farm subsidies, holding up tax refunds, jeapordizing safety. This is a complete and utter disaster for the GOP.
The reason why McConnell won't allow the Senate to vote on a continuing resolution, even in the face of a Trump veto threat, is because it would put GOP Senators in an impossible position. Vote against Trump, and buy yourself a primary opponent in the process. Vote against the resolution, and p*ss off lots of people that are being hurt by the shutdown and look like a tool of Trump.
So you have a scenario where the Dems really don't have any downside. No one reachable is blaming them as much as Trump (and likely won't because Trump won't concede anything and even claimed credit for the shutdown - idiot), few if any of their base is upset with them for standing up for Trump, and it puts a LOT of Republican Congressmen and Senators in a terrible political position. This was about the dumbest thing Trump could have done politically.
Downside for the Dems if this continues...virtually none
Downside for Trump if this continues...little, but more than for the Dems. There are thousands of REPUBLICAN government employees and stakeholders who are going to be hurt badly by this. Corrections officers, Coast Guard employees, farmers, etc. Some of them will rightly choose their economic well being over blind loyalty to Trump. Call it 1% in national approval.
Downside for GOP Congressmen and Senators.... Massive, especially for GOP Senators up in marginal states (Tillis, Collins, Gardner, Ernst, McSally) next year and also for many GOP Congressmen, who are getting baited left in right by Pelosi forcing them to vote against reopening the government.
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This is a no win for the Republicans, so long as the Dems stay focused, with little downside for them. Why would they let Trump get out of the trap he put himself into?
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