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2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
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2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
Post - Bowl Conference Rankings. Standouts to me:

The SEC was the best conference by a large margin.

The MWC topped the AAC for "best G5".

The Big 12 is alive and well on the field.

Good year for the Sun Belt:


1) SEC ........ 32.52

2) Big 12 ..... 44.56

3) B1G ........ 48.62

4) ACC ........ 52.19

5) PAC ........ 55.18


6) MWC ....... 77.18

7) AAC ........ 79.99

8) SBC ........ 84.25

9) MAC ........ 91.53

10) CUSA ..... 92.08
01-09-2019 06:22 PM
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stever20 Offline
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
SEC - Big 12 12.04 spot difference
Big 12- P12 10.62 spot difference
01-09-2019 06:25 PM
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quo vadis Online
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-09-2019 06:25 PM)stever20 Wrote:  SEC - Big 12 12.04 spot difference
Big 12- P12 10.62 spot difference

Yes, the PAC was a "tweener" between the SEC and MWC. 07-coffee3
01-09-2019 06:37 PM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
Because the Massey composite only ranks teams rather than giving them a rating, the gaps between conferences are deceptive. If Conference A is in 5th place with a rating of 75 out of 100, and Conference B is in 6th place with a rating of 25 out of 100, comparing them just by rank misses a lot of information.
(This post was last modified: 01-09-2019 06:50 PM by Nerdlinger.)
01-09-2019 06:50 PM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-09-2019 06:50 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Because the Massey composite only ranks teams rather than giving them a rating, the gaps between conferences are deceptive. If Conference A is in 5th place with a rating of 75 out of 100, and Conference B is in 6th place with a rating of 25 out of 100, comparing them just by rank misses a lot of information.

I just looked at the conference RPI rankings, and RPI had the PAC at #4 and the ACC at #5, and CUSA at #11 and MAC at #12, those were the differences with MC.
01-09-2019 07:02 PM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-09-2019 07:02 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-09-2019 06:50 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Because the Massey composite only ranks teams rather than giving them a rating, the gaps between conferences are deceptive. If Conference A is in 5th place with a rating of 75 out of 100, and Conference B is in 6th place with a rating of 25 out of 100, comparing them just by rank misses a lot of information.

I just looked at the conference RPI rankings, and RPI had the PAC at #4 and the ACC at #5, and CUSA at #11 and MAC at #12, those were the differences with MC.

I was referring to Steve's subtracting the ranks from one another, which is fairly meaningless without context.
01-09-2019 08:18 PM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-09-2019 06:22 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Post - Bowl Conference Rankings. Standouts to me:

The SEC was the best conference by a large margin.

The MWC topped the AAC for "best G5".

The Big 12 is alive and well on the field.

Good year for the Sun Belt:


1) SEC ........ 32.52
2) Big 12 ..... 44.56
3) B1G ........ 48.62
4) ACC ........ 52.19
5) PAC ........ 55.18
6) MWC ....... 77.18
7) AAC ........ 79.99
8) SBC ........ 84.25
9) MAC ........ 91.53
10) CUSA ..... 92.08

It was a good year for the Sun Belt, but it’s not an unfamiliar spot. They’ve finished 3rd best among the G5 3 times in the last 6 seasons (2018, 2016, 2013).
01-10-2019 02:44 AM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-10-2019 02:44 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  It was a good year for the Sun Belt, but it’s not an unfamiliar spot. They’ve finished 3rd best among the G5 3 times in the last 6 seasons (2018, 2016, 2013).

Interesting. I had assumed the SB had always been around last. Not sure why.
01-10-2019 06:45 AM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-10-2019 06:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 02:44 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  It was a good year for the Sun Belt, but it’s not an unfamiliar spot. They’ve finished 3rd best among the G5 3 times in the last 6 seasons (2018, 2016, 2013).

Interesting. I had assumed the SB had always been around last. Not sure why.

The Sun Belt always gave me that sense, as well. But, after thinking, the top of the conference is GOOD. It does carry some dead weight. It should rid itself of Texas St and UL Monroe. Keep the remaining 8 and invite FAU, FIU, MTSU, WKU, SOMS, UAB, LT, NTX.

West: North Texas, Arkansas St, Louisiana Tech, UL Lafayette, Southern Miss, UAB, South Alabama, Troy
East: Wesrern Kentucky, Middle Tennessee St, Appalachian St, Coastal Carolina, Georgia St, Georgia Southern, Florida Atlantic, Florida International

This new Sun Belt would be very good.
01-10-2019 07:56 AM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-10-2019 07:56 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 06:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 02:44 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  It was a good year for the Sun Belt, but it’s not an unfamiliar spot. They’ve finished 3rd best among the G5 3 times in the last 6 seasons (2018, 2016, 2013).

Interesting. I had assumed the SB had always been around last. Not sure why.

The Sun Belt always gave me that sense, as well. But, after thinking, the top of the conference is GOOD. It does carry some dead weight. It should rid itself of Texas St and UL Monroe. Keep the remaining 8 and invite FAU, FIU, MTSU, WKU, SOMS, UAB, LT, NTX.

West: North Texas, Arkansas St, Louisiana Tech, UL Lafayette, Southern Miss, UAB, South Alabama, Troy
East: Wesrern Kentucky, Middle Tennessee St, Appalachian St, Coastal Carolina, Georgia St, Georgia Southern, Florida Atlantic, Florida International

This new Sun Belt would be very good.

FAU and FIU were the dead weight when they were in the Sun Belt. They left the Sun Belt to join CUSA with MTSU, WKU, and UNT who were all thinking they were taking a step up when in reality it was a step to the left. On top of that they added UNCC, ODU, UTSA, and UTEP which further drove down CUSA's historic competitiveness until now they find themselves at the bottom of the FBS with the worst media deal, worst conference payout, and worst travel expenses compared to budget.

Meanwhile, instead of raiding the bottom teams of adjacent conferences, the Sun Belt added historically strong teams from the FCS who were ready to compete right away. The rest is history.
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2019 09:11 AM by TrueBlueDrew.)
01-10-2019 09:10 AM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-10-2019 06:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 02:44 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  It was a good year for the Sun Belt, but it’s not an unfamiliar spot. They’ve finished 3rd best among the G5 3 times in the last 6 seasons (2018, 2016, 2013).

Interesting. I had assumed the SB had always been around last. Not sure why.

Being 3rd in 2016 still puts them around last. CUSA, MAC and SB all had rough years then. They had a good year in 2013. Then the raids came and the FCS schools they brought in dragged them down even though the CUSA didn't take the strongest football schools. Its taken 5 years to recover.
01-10-2019 09:34 AM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-10-2019 09:34 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 06:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 02:44 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  It was a good year for the Sun Belt, but it’s not an unfamiliar spot. They’ve finished 3rd best among the G5 3 times in the last 6 seasons (2018, 2016, 2013).

Interesting. I had assumed the SB had always been around last. Not sure why.

Being 3rd in 2016 still puts them around last. CUSA, MAC and SB all had rough years then. They had a good year in 2013. Then the raids came and the FCS schools they brought in dragged them down even though the CUSA didn't take the strongest football schools. Its taken 5 years to recover.

Oh yeah, the FCS schools they added totally dragged them down, that's why one of the FCS schools went undefeated in the conference in the first year and the other one has won a conference title almost every year since.
01-10-2019 09:50 AM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-09-2019 06:50 PM)Nerdlinger Wrote:  Because the Massey composite only ranks teams rather than giving them a rating, the gaps between conferences are deceptive. If Conference A is in 5th place with a rating of 75 out of 100, and Conference B is in 6th place with a rating of 25 out of 100, comparing them just by rank misses a lot of information.

Comparing conferences isn't all that simple, and there are a lot of different data sets that illuminate different things. In general, there seem to be three distinct groups within the FBS. That's not a particularly controversial statement.

The five autonomous conferences are clearly in a class above all other conferences by pretty much any measure one might think to apply. In a second group are the AAC and MWC. These two are in most respects ahead of the MAC, USA and SBC, though not by as much as they are behind the A5. In any given year within each group, the statistical rankings will vary by a little.

For 2018, there is a numerical rating - Sagarin - which doesn't differ all that much from Massey. To take out some random variation from year to year, I have calculated a weighted average rating for the past five years, during which there was little realignment. I also calculated the OOC winning percentage against FBS competition only for the same five year period. The ratings for each conference:

Conf....5 yr.....2018...Win %

SEC.. 80.24....81.22...766
B12.. 76.87....77.51...621
ACC.. 76.65....75.26...592
PAC.. 76.09....75.07...648
B1G.. 76.07....76.75...681

AAC .. 65.24....64.43...428
MWC.. 62.80....64.54...381

MAC.. 59.10....59.92...273
USA.. 58.16....57.01...331
SBC.. 58.06....58.59...257

The OOC win % may be the least useful in comparing performance within each group because of disparities in strength of individual opponents and number of games. For example, the ACC data includes rivalry games against strong SEC opponents as well as five games a year against Notre Dame.

My takeaway from the data is that, by any measure, the SEC really is stronger than everybody else. You could throw a blanket over the rest of the P5 because they are all pretty equal. Other than that, if anyone is so inclined, you could probably cherry pick a number that makes your favorite conference look its best.
01-10-2019 10:22 AM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-10-2019 09:50 AM)TrueBlueDrew Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 09:34 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 06:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 02:44 AM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  It was a good year for the Sun Belt, but it’s not an unfamiliar spot. They’ve finished 3rd best among the G5 3 times in the last 6 seasons (2018, 2016, 2013).

Interesting. I had assumed the SB had always been around last. Not sure why.

Being 3rd in 2016 still puts them around last. CUSA, MAC and SB all had rough years then. They had a good year in 2013. Then the raids came and the FCS schools they brought in dragged them down even though the CUSA didn't take the strongest football schools. Its taken 5 years to recover.

Oh yeah, the FCS schools they added totally dragged them down, that's why one of the FCS schools went undefeated in the conference in the first year and the other one has won a conference title almost every year since.

SB out of conference record vs. FBS by year:
2013 15-17
2014 5-32
2015 7-32
2016 13-27
2017 10-31
2018 14-20

Some of those FCS schools have finished at the bottom as well.
01-10-2019 12:59 PM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
The whole restructuring weakened both the CUSA and Sun Belt schools and made a bigger gap vs. the P5.

They are competing with more schools in the same region for talent. There are 15 schools who were in FBS in 2011 from those two conferences. Now there are 24. If you throw in the southern AAC schools as recruiting the same talent, its still an increase from 23 to 32.
01-10-2019 01:10 PM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-10-2019 01:10 PM)bullet Wrote:  The whole restructuring weakened both the CUSA and Sun Belt schools and made a bigger gap vs. the P5.

They are competing with more schools in the same region for talent. There are 15 schools who were in FBS in 2011 from those two conferences. Now there are 24. If you throw in the southern AAC schools as recruiting the same talent, its still an increase from 23 to 32.

The growing gap has less to do with rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and more to do with simply allowing more and more teams into the FBS. The barriers to entry are far too low. Those new FBS schools aren't being added to the top conferences. They are being added at the bottom. The NCAA had it about right when it originally split the division in 1978. If we'd stopped there, we wouldn't be talking about a gap at all.
01-10-2019 02:55 PM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-10-2019 02:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 01:10 PM)bullet Wrote:  The whole restructuring weakened both the CUSA and Sun Belt schools and made a bigger gap vs. the P5.

They are competing with more schools in the same region for talent. There are 15 schools who were in FBS in 2011 from those two conferences. Now there are 24. If you throw in the southern AAC schools as recruiting the same talent, its still an increase from 23 to 32.

The growing gap has less to do with rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and more to do with simply allowing more and more teams into the FBS. The barriers to entry are far too low. Those new FBS schools aren't being added to the top conferences. They are being added at the bottom. The NCAA had it about right when it originally split the division in 1978. If we'd stopped there, we wouldn't be talking about a gap at all.
in 1978, there were 138 teams. so in a lot of ways, we're back to where it was after the split. now there was a thinning of course after that.....
01-10-2019 03:04 PM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-10-2019 03:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 02:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 01:10 PM)bullet Wrote:  The whole restructuring weakened both the CUSA and Sun Belt schools and made a bigger gap vs. the P5.

They are competing with more schools in the same region for talent. There are 15 schools who were in FBS in 2011 from those two conferences. Now there are 24. If you throw in the southern AAC schools as recruiting the same talent, its still an increase from 23 to 32.

The growing gap has less to do with rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and more to do with simply allowing more and more teams into the FBS. The barriers to entry are far too low. Those new FBS schools aren't being added to the top conferences. They are being added at the bottom. The NCAA had it about right when it originally split the division in 1978. If we'd stopped there, we wouldn't be talking about a gap at all.
in 1978, there were 138 teams. so in a lot of ways, we're back to where it was after the split. now there was a thinning of course after that.....

Depending on whether you count the MAC as being FBS (they were initially relegated to FCS, but successfully clawed their way back via a lawsuit) there were closer to 90-100 schools in the FBS at the time of the split. Most AAC and MWC teams were FBS from the start. Only a small number from the other G5 conferences started out as FBS.
01-10-2019 03:13 PM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-10-2019 03:13 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 03:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 02:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 01:10 PM)bullet Wrote:  The whole restructuring weakened both the CUSA and Sun Belt schools and made a bigger gap vs. the P5.

They are competing with more schools in the same region for talent. There are 15 schools who were in FBS in 2011 from those two conferences. Now there are 24. If you throw in the southern AAC schools as recruiting the same talent, its still an increase from 23 to 32.

The growing gap has less to do with rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and more to do with simply allowing more and more teams into the FBS. The barriers to entry are far too low. Those new FBS schools aren't being added to the top conferences. They are being added at the bottom. The NCAA had it about right when it originally split the division in 1978. If we'd stopped there, we wouldn't be talking about a gap at all.
in 1978, there were 138 teams. so in a lot of ways, we're back to where it was after the split. now there was a thinning of course after that.....

Depending on whether you count the MAC as being FBS (they were initially relegated to FCS, but successfully clawed their way back via a lawsuit) there were closer to 90-100 schools in the FBS at the time of the split. Most AAC and MWC teams were FBS from the start. Only a small number from the other G5 conferences started out as FBS.
nope. back in 78 you had even the Ivy as FBS. They dropped after year 1981.

it really wasn't until 1982 that the number really dropped- to 113.

The number never dropped below 104 teams in 1987 and 1988(both years with the SMU death penalty).
01-10-2019 03:24 PM
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RE: 2018 Final Conference Rankings (Massey Composite)
(01-10-2019 03:04 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 02:55 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(01-10-2019 01:10 PM)bullet Wrote:  The whole restructuring weakened both the CUSA and Sun Belt schools and made a bigger gap vs. the P5.

They are competing with more schools in the same region for talent. There are 15 schools who were in FBS in 2011 from those two conferences. Now there are 24. If you throw in the southern AAC schools as recruiting the same talent, its still an increase from 23 to 32.

The growing gap has less to do with rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic and more to do with simply allowing more and more teams into the FBS. The barriers to entry are far too low. Those new FBS schools aren't being added to the top conferences. They are being added at the bottom. The NCAA had it about right when it originally split the division in 1978. If we'd stopped there, we wouldn't be talking about a gap at all.
in 1978, there were 138 teams. so in a lot of ways, we're back to where it was after the split. now there was a thinning of course after that.....

It was 1982 when they really thinned the herd. Southern, MVC except Tulsa, Southland except ULL, Ivy, all went down.
(This post was last modified: 01-10-2019 04:55 PM by bullet.)
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