Quote:In general, the race for the C-USA crown looks fairly competitive, as 7 teams have at least a 4% chance to win the title, and no team has odds over 30%. However, the highest ranked team in the preseason is Marshall at only 70, so it is unlikely that any of these teams are going to crash the NY6 party.

In the West, Southern Miss (79) is the team with the edge in odds at 42%, but from the point of view of both number of games favored and my simulation, I project a 3-way tie at 6-2 between Southern Miss, North Texas (84), and LA Tech (86). In both scenarios, LA Tech beats the other two teams at home, so the Bulldogs are my pick, despite their fairly long odds (18%).

Out East, Marshall (70) has more of an odds advantage than the West favorite, but Florida International (75), and Florida Atlantic (87) are hanging around. Based on the raw projected favorites, Marshall is favored to run the table, but in my simulation it's Florida Atlantic, who hosts both Marshall and FIU, who wins the Division. If my simulation scenario were to come to pass, LA Tech would beat Florida Atlantic by a nose to win the C-USA crown.

That all said, I will say this about Marshall's schedule. They have a great chance to be favored in all 8 of their conference games and their non-conference schedule offers a unique opportunity. They face Boise State (33) on the road (the MWest favorite), Ohio (78) at home (one of the MAC favorites), and they host Cincinnati (38, one of the AAC favorites). If the Herd could someone win at least 2 or even all 3 of those games, they could make a very legitimate claim as the best of the Group of Five, even though they don't play a single Power 5 team.